Farage and the politics of rage

Thanks for listening to the Rest is Politics. T to support the podcast, listen without the adverts and get early access to episodes and live show tickets, go to thereestispolitics. com. That's the rest is politics. com Donald Trump has driven us into something that is one of the worst economic crises that weve fac in living memory and something that we're very, very poorly prepared for. And if the straits of Hs don't open anytime soon, we are not that far away from an energy crisis, which of course has the potential to lead to an economic crisis as well. We could be a few weeks off a massive crisis on jet fuel, diesel that we're not even beginning to talk about. The damage done is now going take Months in the case of gas and possibly even two or three years in the case of oil, we Europe became reliant on Russia for energy, China for the economy, USA for security. We're now facing real security pressure from Russia on energy, and we're facing political pressure from the United States This episode is brought you by Fuse Energy. Fuse has introduced a tracker tariff designed to give customers what matters most for their energy supplier Savings clarity and a bit more control. And it guarantees that your rates stay below the off gem price gap, which saves you up to two hundred pounds and the tariff updates automatically every quarter. Energy prices don't move in straight lines. Gobal events and market pressures you can't predict and certainly can't control still find their way onto your bill. And if you're on the wrong tariff, you can be stuck with higher rates after the pressure has ended. With FuseEnerg's tracker tariff, that changes. If prices fall, your rate adjusts at the next quarterly update. And it's automatic. No switching, no trying to second against the market. You're protected while prices are high and ready to benefit when they fall. Switch to Fuse Energy's tracker tariff at fuseennergy d. com h stash politics and use code politics to get a free trip plus subscription. Visit fuseennergy. com for full terms and conditions This episode is brought to you by NordVPN. Now we both travel an extraordinary amount with work and in our line of business it's hard to fully switch off. Because news and politics tend not to take a summer recess. keepeeping up with Westminster, when abroad means constantly logging in to all manner of dodgy airport and cafe WiFi networks. Don't we know about it? That's the problem. leeaves personal data complete completely vulnerable to hackers And that's where NordVPN comes in. It encrypts your connection, keeps your data private wherever you are. And the big thing is being able to switch virtual locations back to the UK. It means you can access all your usual apps and content and not miss out on anything while you're away. Plus, it automatically connects to the nearest server so you aren't stuck with sluggish internet It really is the ultimate travel tool, even for those who actually try to relax on holiday. To get the best discount of your NordVPN plan, go to nordvPN. com slash restestis Politics. The link is in the episode description Welcome to the Res of Politics, with me Alice Campbell and with me Rory Stewart. Today we're going to be talking about Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and energy and renewable energy before we get from the second half on to the tragedy of Henry Noak and his murder And what that means for British politics But the first half comes out of a conference that Alistter and I just attended in Finland, where we had some very interesting conversations about renewable energy and about Ed Miliband and about Britain's energy policy and the world's energy policy, which I suspect we're going to get into a bit of an argument about where I'll be taking more of the side of his friend Tony Blair. But we're also going to look at the biggest unreported story, I think, which is probably the biggest story in the world right now which is the way in which the straightor fororm is, which continues to be blocked is on the verge of crippling Asian economies, African economies, European economies, and not just through oil, which is people talking about, but through oil products, jet fuel, diesel, NAFTA aler and the way in which no national politicians are being honest about the fact Donald Trump has driven us into something that is probably one of the worst economic crises that we facace in living memory and something that we're very, very poorly prepared for. So Alison, let's start maybe back with a conference. Tell us what you felt about it. Tell the audience about the conference. This was a really interesting, very enjoyable conference essentially about electricity. It was hosted by Eur Electricity EUR Electricity, which is the electricity sector across Europe. And two parts in a way, which is why I left a bit troubled. The first part absolutely amazing progress that's being made on the whole renewables agenda, especially in that part of the world where we were. Scandinavia is kind of you know showing a lot of leadership on this. But then also talking to people who really know They said the energy markets worldwide inside out to say that we're not remotely being educated sufficiently about just how severe the energy crisis that we're possibly facing really quite soon. as a result of Trump starting the Iran warar and now his failure to stop it. And if the straits of Hormus don't open anytime soon, that we are not that far away from an energy crisis, which of course has the potential to lead to an economic crisis as well. It was, of course, as always completely astonishing and impressedive the progress and particularly many of the Nordic countries, which are getting incredible renewables from things like hydro, and of course Spain, which is doing incredible stuff on solar One of the problems with the debate, of course, is very quickly people will say, well, look, how come this is happening in Scandinavia or how come this is happening in Spain? And it's not happening in Britain and Britain can do the same And the truth is Britain doesn't have that enormous hydroone, it doesn't have the sun that Spain has But there's other particular problems with Britain, which at some point we're going to get into which is to do with the fact that we're still paying enormous amounts for the cost of the renewable energy that's already been installed. So even though it's cheaper put in the stuff the way the government subsidized it, all of which is sitting on our bills around taxation is still paying for a massive amount of renewable energy investment. And secondly, this problem of distribution and transmission, they kept saying very casually things like, well, of course, know Britain It's all going to be fine provided you put all the wind turbines in the southeast of England. The problem is that you have them in Scotland and the transmission costs are too big. anyway. enough on that. One of the things though that I think brought us to this is that It wasn't just about electricity and we began to realize how much the story of this Tade of Hormz is causing an existential threat, not just to Asian and African but also European economies and that it's not just striking through the electricity bill, it's striking through things like jet fuel, diesel, and fertilizer everyue. I think the thing that probably stuck with most with both of us was we had a very private briefing with a leading figure in the sector who painted a retty bleak The longer he went on with the detail, I felt highly realistic scenario. if the Iran crisis is not resolved and the Straits of Hormz don't open sometime soon. And the other big point that was made to us was that even if it does open Tomorrow The damage done is now going to take months in the case of gas and possibly even two or three years in the case of of oil. And as you say, we've been at these presentations, I mean the stuff that just to give two or three of the things that really impressed me Norway, now every single new car sold is electric battery run, every single one Iceland's power one hundred percent renewable electric And in Finland where we were, if you take renewables and nuclear together, you're talking more than ninety percent. Okay. Good news Bad news on Iran, we were brief that since the start of the Iran War, energy costs in Europe have gone up four hundred sixty five million euros a day Now four hundred sixty five million doars I went to one of your friends, Claud friends type friends and I said, what could I buy for four hundred sixty five million doars euros if I was a government said. And it saident me this thing from a German government website that said that the German government estimates that four hundred sixty five million is the cost required to offer what they call robust tax reductions for corporate zero emission vehicle purchases. In other words, you could subsidize your entire corporate vehicle fleet in Germany for that cost. So we're talking huge sums of money and for no benefit The point is you're paying four hundred sixty five million euros a day more, and you're not getting a single bit more energy. Exactly. So it's a pure cost. There's no benefit at all. You went on essentially to say that governments are not really wanting to be that open about the consequences of this because they're dealing with enough problems as it is And also he said that the first thing that will go is jet fuel. Now, that would obviously upset people if their planes for their summer holidays get cancellled or whatever, but that's also a massive impact upon global trade And then the second thing that would get hit would be diesel, which of course would have a massive impact upon the trucking industry. And you know, he was talking time frame that was closer than maybe we think. So I think the thing that I have this sort of in reaction. On the one hand, sitting in these debates thinking these guys are amazing. It's incredible the stuff that they're doing. this is really exciting And then precisely because of Trump and Netanyah who did in relation to Iran Another world as it were, where these same people are having to face some really, really, really difficult choices. Do you remember There wass the guy who was telling us that at the time of the Ukraine invasion when there was a thought amongst Northern European governments and the Sandis and the Germans or whatever Puter might just literally pull the plug on Russian gas. Now as it happened, he needed the money, so he kept going as long as he could but where they were actually having cabinet meetings talking about whether, for example, the German economy could survive, whether one of the Northern European governments literally having a meeting about whether they would have to send in troops into factories to say we have to shut down the power because we're having to ration energy. So it was a pretty Apocalyptus, the wrong word, but What was your sense of it? I mean, I left that quite alarmed. Yeah, it very alarming, very, very alarming. numberum one, it takes us back to a world that we thought was a long way away I mean, if you go back to the stories of the First World War, a loss of that was about Germany and Britain being concerned about where they were going to get the oil to power their navies.. And actually a lot of the Second World War was about the Germans advancing to try to seize oil fields. That's why We're going to talk I think a little bit about the Caucus, but that's why the Caucus really mattered to hit that. And of course, in the nineteen seventies, there's actually quite an interesting book being written by somebody called Philip Dlves Broughton about this The war in the Middle East, which was the invasion of Israel, the Yom Kepur War led to an oil embargo, which then sparked a global crisis. Now because of The world we've been in since the eighties, the world of globalisation We've created a more and more interconnected world and we've become more and more reliant on other people And more and more pretending to assume if you're Europe that you've entered a new universe,? You might think, for example, you don't need to worry so much about oil and gas because you've got so much renewables. The problem with that is, of course, that Even with a lot of renewables Most countries need gas to back up the wind turbines when the wind's not blowing and the solar when the sun's not shining. But more important than that, our whole economy doesn't run on electricity Our trucks need diesel are planes and not electric planes. they still need jet fuel. So The twenty twenty two shock made us wake up to gas because we suddenly worked out we were very dependent on Russian gas But we didn't worry about oil and jet fuel, why not because we were worried about our enemies, not our allies. So We were worried about gas and we built up these big stockpiles in Europe committed to getting ninety percent stockpiles on gas, but we basically don't have any stockpiles on jet fuel and diesel, ninety days in one case, compared to Japan, which has two hundred days or China, which has the most enormous piles of oil. we don't have that stuff And we don't have that stuff because if you'd asked, I think the National Security Council in Britain or European leaders three years ago to spend as the Chinese have untold amounts of money building up huge oil stockpiles, people might be, risk, what threat do you think you're actually dealing with here And you'd say, well, you know, the threat we're dealing with here is that maybe Qatar will no longer be exporting as gas. Well, that's insane. Why would Qatar not export as gas? right? I mean, it's their whole economy, right? Well, what would happen if Iran would close its stits form me? Well, they're not going to do that, are they? Because it would cripple the Iranian economy? Well is It wouldt happen if ye show we're going. Well I'll tell you what, it's really interesting in the back of the car on the way to the airport as we were leaving this conference. You and I just had this particular meeting that was, you, really interesting And you showed me this Is it an app? It's something where you talk into your phone and that it fact checks it for you all in one go. Yeah. But the quote that we put into your app or AI model, whatever you want to call it, was we hadn't modeled enough on oil. Russia had given us the gas shock But we hadn't fully thought through there would ever be a time when we'd be so badly stuck on oil, because the only way that was ever going to happen was if the United States was stupid enough to get the straits of closed. And of course, so that is what has happened and that is why the consequences And I even got to the point, I mean, I'm parking my Trumed derrangement syndrome. and my view that generally he's not as clever as he thinks he is. I even got to the point with all this anti Europeanism. We'll talk about Vance in relation to Henry Novak or Pete Hexsetithh sort of insulting the Normandy people with his ridiculous nonsense about this new invasion of refugees and comparing it to the Nazis I even wondered if this was deliberate. Because of course, America now does not have the same fears that we're facing and the agge is facing because they are such a big exporter to make again our listeners uncomfortable, a big exporter partly because of fracking. Yeah. an enormous amount of fracking. And when we asked people Why are you a S electricity costs a quarter of those that they are in Europe, the answer was, well, they've been fracking. They've got all this oil and gas. And that then leads to why is the US able to build all these data centers and power the AI revolution and lead on cloud computing and technology Well because they've got much cheaper enery and why have they got cheaper energy? partly because they're fracking. So there's a connection between all these things. There's a connection between our green agenda, our renewables investment, the types of things we concentrate, the kind of threats we think we see, the kind of priorities we place just to come back to straights though for a second because I think again If you are like me a regular listener to the Today program, you're a bit surprised to discover what's actually happening in the streets. My guess is most listeners don't really know because what you tend to hear every morning. is President Trump is on the verge of reopening the straits. He's got this wonderful peace deal and it's just about to happen. Again. And the first ceasefire was announced in April And you've been quite good at pointing out that it doesn't seem very likely that this is going to happen But the markets have kept betting that it's just about to reopen. You keep seeing these very weird things where may the twenty fourth, for example, brent oil prices dropped very dramatically on the announcement We're now talking on the ninth of June that the straits were about to reopen The truth the matter is there are about fifteen hundred ships still stranded in the straight Basically none are getting through. I mean occasionally there'll be stories with three or four ships getting through there and there. but There were, in the old days, about a hundred I think one hundred and thirty ships a day going through. There are now fif thousandteen hundred ships stranded Probably twenty thousand, you've talked about this too, twenty thousand crew members in pretty horrible situations And either the US intercept Iranian ships or the Iranians intercept ships with gunboats that don't have their permission Who's our very little gangster Now that means that if you get beyond Europe, and as you say, Europe is in real trouble, we could be a few weeks off, a massive crisis on jet fuel diesel that we're not even beginning to talk about But if you're Japan, you're already in that crisis because NAFTA, which is a petroleum product that you use for so many things, right? It's what you use for inks, dyes, specialist plastics, rubbers, right at the heart of the whole manufacturing process, and ninety percent of Japan's oil comes from the Middle East. know South Korea is worrying about rationing Vietnam is worrying about rationing. Well, the other thing that's interesting about Korea, they're already I don't think if you call it rationing, but they're encouraging people to work from home Vietnam and other countries in that part of the world, coal We talk about renew, you know, the rush to renewables because of the oil br shock. But also in those places where they've got coal, there's also a bit of a rush to C So no, I think that's what I find most interesting is that I felt we were learning something new I mean, there's been this talk about there's going to be a crisis, but talking to some people that were sort of saying, this is a lot closer than people imagined. And of course, if you have an energy crisis That will then lead, not just to the whole rationing thing and all that, but then to an economic crisis. as well. And so if you've got Trump there saying, Well, this isn't affecting America, I don't really care and he wants to sort of punish Europe for all sorts of crazy reasons anyway I just think this is something that maybe we need to hear a little bit more from our politicians about what the stockpiling strategy is and whether it's going to be necessary. Sorry to go back to the net zero disagreeable agreeable disagreement, Rory. And by the way, well done you didn't trim too much You trimmed a little bit in front of this audience, but and even when they came back at you pretty hard, you sort of you kind of hld your ground but that I was there a day earlier than you and one of the presentations I really enjoyed and I introduced you this guy, Jan Rosenau, who's a German He's the professor of energy at Oxford University, but he actually gave me a really interesting explanation as to The billing thing is much, much more complicated than maybe either of you and I had really understood. when we were talking about it so aledgeably last week. So he starts by saying that look, you know there's a school of thought that says, Wind and solar, this is the sort of net stupid zero people like times. Wind and solar are making Bills dry up, not true People like me are saying renewables are bringing bills down And he says neeither of those stories stacks up fully. It's much, much more complicated. This isays the real problem in the British market is this thing about the way the market sets hour by hour And when gas price when gas is setting the price for the market wholesale market prices are much higher and that hits us very, very badly. When you've got a mix, a proper mix of renewables, hydro, as you said, nuclear imports through interconnectors. Spain, you mentioned Spain, Spain has got all that mix. And so there are far few fewer hours where Spain's market is being set by gas and then the other point he made is if you look at the components of your retail bill, every time you switch on the switch and your thing goes up if you've got one of those meters, right? the wholesale electricity is only a part of it Bigger things are networks, taxes, levies and they don't move with the wholesale price. So I hadn't really fully understood how this billing works. and it is more complicated than me just saying renewables good, even though they are And when you talk about the scandalers, that is one of the reasons why they are doing so well. But it's actually the whole way that the market operates and is structured that we have to try and change. Yeah. now I guess there the point is that the challenge is stillan E Milibant There might be any number of explanations for why our industrial energy costs are higher than those in Europe are much higher than those in the US. But it's a big problem. It's a big problem for industry. It's a big problem for tech, it's a big problem for our sovereignty. If we don't start building data centers We are going to be, I don't know, the British are going to be like the Zulu Empire at about the time of the arrival of British industrial colonialism We're going to be in a completely mad world where we will totally lack access to the technology which is going to drive the next Iustrial revolution We've got to build those data centers. Did you read the piece I sent to you by my friend Rachel Donald, who does this very, very, very activist environmental website blog called Planet Critical, and which does a podcast as well about the plananned data center in Fife in a little village called Octatul. I did. And know and part of that is that she simply doesn't believe there's an AI revolution coming. She disagrees with the idea that AI matters and that Britain needs to be in the AI race I'm afraid she's almost certainly entirely wrong. Certainly the entire global markets are betting against her and anybody who uses these models, I think feels that they are improving out of all recognition every three months and that the countries that have those models will be able to do things with their economies the health services with their defense equipment that peoplee who don't have them won't be able to do. It would be like choosing in the Industrial Revolution not to have steam. So it's it's just an option that's.ree and even the Pope, who's wonderful, incyyclical, thank you to all the Catholics who told me that I mispronounced it and Roy didn't correct me. Incyyclical, not encyclical. thank you to everybody who pointed that out. But what about her broader point? Let's put the argument about AI to one side There was this extraordinary aerial photograph of the The data center as it was going to be built which is right next to a village and it is bigger than the village In other words So you get have a small village in a beautiful part of Five. Exactly. you're totally right. And this is why data centers are now increasingly unpopular in the United States. I mean, these data centers, look, the upside is that you get to participate in the AI revolution which is going to reshape the whole world. And if you don't have those things, your economy will collapse, the American economy will boom and you will have no leverage at all. So it's not really an option. The cost of installing these data centers is unbelievable. There's the cost of the landscape. They're really big and they're really ugly. There's the amazing energy costs. So fifty percent of the increase in electricity demand in the US is driven purely. by dentist centers. There's the water cooling problems there's huge environmental impacts of these things. Then the question, I guess, if your' government is It's the classic problem, I'm afraid with any planning. Yeah. And you know, I don't want to use the word Nimbi, but We got to build these things. Wh do we build them So if you don't build them in next to a sparsely populated village in Scotland Are you going to build them N Hampshire Where are you building these things? I mean, I agree with you about there was an element of let's just not do this at all. You know, I can even though I'm very suspicious about the people behind AI, a lot of them, I totally get where you're coming from on that. and I thought the Pope was interesting on that too. But it's also there does seem to me to be a fundamental dishonesty about the way that they're projecting this stuff. So this particular one up in a place wonderful named Ochter Tul in Fife And it's probably being put forward by this III group. Now how do you when you see that they say the data center will be zero waste. Net zero. And it will only use the equivalent of two hundred and thirty nine residential homes annual water usage when the Average use of one of these data centers is between eleven and twenty million liters a day You sort of do worry that they're not really being straight with people. I think that's what's going to get the public around the world really pissed off. If these kind of masters of universities just think, look G with the programe or lose out. People will get really pissed off, and I think get with the programe is a horrible phrase. but do remember, I mean, I was very, very involved in Cumbria with community groups fighting against wind turbines And you would have seen very, very similar arguments made against the wind turbine company that they were using dodgy statistics. Yeah. And I love wind turbines.ight, abbsolutely. But what you would have seen is the campaigners producing very, very similar documents. saying the company said this, but that's lie. this is the truth. This is the impact on these birds, this is the impact on this biodiverse landscape This is the picture they've shown us. This is the real picture. is this is what the law says So I'm afraid this is the story around HS two. this is the story around third runway at Heathrow, this is the story around data centers, the story around buildings There are very, very good reasons for local communities passionately to oppose these things Wonderful reasons because they love their landscape, they care about their community and These things are net negative to that community in FIife But they are a net positive, I'm afraid If I more than netPs, if they're vital for the security inter national Of Britain? Yeah. yeah my sort of gentle criticisms of Tony Blair. Really interesting some of the responses to that. I had a lovely message from somebody who worked for Barack Obama who said, I thought you handled your criticisms of Tony Blair very well You were critical without being disloyal. And I should also say that word got back to to his holiness, Pope Tony Yeah that I' And so he did leave so I got this message. How can it be in our interest to spend billions accelerating to net zero when our emissions are relatively low? I think I dealt with that on the global leadership thing. Why are we stopping our own oil and gas production when we're importing someone else's to meet our needs? He claimed the Norseea is not unviable and that Shell would put ten billion in. So this is really interesting. I'm sorry I didn't get on to asking you more quickly about how only had respond because it's an obvious question. But let me try to play his part here. The normal argument against us doing stuff in the North Sea is that it's not going to make a difference to the price, fair enough. gas prices are global. But it's difficult not to think that there's a national security benefit to having your own gas off your own coast rather than depending on importing from other people, particularly at the moment when We have to get our gas either from the US, which is now and one of the reasons that Trump doesn't care so much about straightful news is that American oil and gas companies are making out like bandits Europe is the the largest single importer of US energy or Qata, why wouldn't you from a point of view of national security just as you grow your own food, even though broadly speaking, food prices are set by global markets Would you not keep your own oil and gas supply? Look, We talked earlier about the importance of having a mix and you have to work out what that mix would be I mean, at one point, at one point he said to me, stop just giving me Ed Milliban talking points, which I didn't think I was. I thought I'd actually read a couple of books and I'd been at this wonderful conference listening to real experts like Jan from German from Cologne. But no I get a what would the difference in terms of the cost, so he says, shall I prepared to put ten billion in? What I haven't seen is what that would then produce and at what pace So I think I just still think the North Sea oil thing is a bit of a mirage. It's a mirage because of the time that it would take and because the quantities that it would That it would produce. Revenue for the British government I mean, Alicea, you've also ye one of the first to point out that one of the reasons that misses Thatcher was able to fund a lot of her stuff was the revenue from That is true. Northa Island gass. Tax cut for rich Rads. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. ye. Well, not just for the rich friendads, It? It you know helps, you know, even during the Blair government, revenue from North Island. Yes. I agree I think it's it's's I think it's quite difficult stepping back not to raaise your eyebrows and say it's a little bit odd, right? We've just told a whole story where the US is in a much stronger position because it's fracking and getting gas out of the ground It's independent. It doesn't have to care about the Middle East so much. It's able to be an exporter. It's making a huge amount of revenue we and it's able to build all its data centers. You're not prof fracking, are you I think it maybe I mean, look, I'm not sure. I was sympathetic to the idea and then they started doing it in Cheshire and it kept sparking earthquakes at which point I guess we get into questions of whether the British geology allows it. But again, remember with all these questions Are we being honest with ourselves? Are we being a bit nimby? Because presumably, All those American fracking projects, the communities were horrified and worried about groundwater and worried about earthquakes and opposeed them. Still are. someome of them still are. Looking it in the round Did the US benefit from fracking or not? Does the world benefit from the drill baby drill and going against renewables? There was another guy you missed, I think you missed, but you met him Do you remember the tall, very elegant guy with sort of grrey wavy hair who came up to say hello before going to do his own presentation? He had the wonderful name Kings Mill Bond My name is Bond. My name is Bond Kingsmill Bond. and he a he's a strategist for Ember, which is a energy think tank And he made an interesting observation. He said, this is the first time we've had an oil shock. And by the way, the internationalg Energy Authority says this is the worst oil shock in history He says this is the first time we've had an oil shot where oil faces a superior alternative because solar, wind and electric are cheaper. more local, faster deploy and they're huge. And he made this observation. He says they were winning even before the crisis this should galvanize change and I'm kind of I guess that's why I remain resistant to the idea that we should go down some of the less obvious routes. Can I just throw on Kingsmill? L Just to return to the thing, because I think one of the weird things about this whole crisis is it's partly about how America, our ally, can do much more harm to us than our adversaries. Secondly, it's about how none of us have any leverage over Trump. I mean we're all talking in the world of AI and sovereignty about how we get leverage over the United States This is the classic example. The whole world wants him to change his vions China, Japan, South Korea, Qatar, Saudi, Dubai, Europe. and none of us are having any impacts on him at all. We don't appear to have any leverage over the US to force him to change direction in any way at all. But the third thing is that it's about moving out of a world where we thought that real stuff didn't matter so much where oil and gas was less important, where we were in a world of kind of digital and renewables. And we've sort of been forcibly reminded of something that Kingswill Bonncles understands but he's being completely honest about when he's saying to you that yeah, renewables can power your electricity, but renewables are not going to give you your NAFTA, your petrochemical products that you actually need for your plastics, your rubbers is solvents for your dies. They might one day we already talkking about this Well a I mean, look, there's also a short term medium term long terment Our national security threat at the moment is Our planes need jet fuel, our trucks need diesel. they don't run on renewables. They might do in fifteen, twenty years time. I'm a bit skeptical about how quickly we're going to fly planes with renewables, but may happen But the problem at the moment is our economies are going to grind to a grinding halt. We're going to end up without the basic stuff to run our economy, and we're looking foolish You know, when China is stockpiling oil, Japan is stockpiling oil We're all patting ourselves on the back an illusion that we don't need it. We do need it now for so many things. Yeah. Fine on that. because the other big event on the first day of the conference was President Stp, Alexander Stup And he's in such an interesting place because he's you know, relatively small country but in large part because He's such a good golfer And also he does the Iron Man, which is the sort of thing that really impresses Donald Trump He's sort of a bit closer to Trump the most. But he said some really interesting things. He basically said look we We've become we Europe. We became reliant on Russia for energy China for the economy, USA for security, right We're now facing real security pressure from Russia. on energy and the war in Ukraine and we're facing political pressure from the United States. And he called that out very, very frankly. And his answer to the whole thing was more Europe. And he actually said this, you know, you and I we talked about him this a little bit on the podcast. He mentioned, by the way, that maybe he should have called his book the Rctangle of power rather than the triangle of power. Remember his triangle was global West, global East, global south and maybe Europe's the fourth corner? But it was very, very interesting and it really went down well. The line that got the biggest round of applause what he said, So youve got to get Ukraine, you got to get the UK, youve got to get the Balkans, youve got to get Norway. you've got to get Turkey because of their military. And wouldn't it be great if instead of becoming the fifty first state of the United States, Canada became the twenty eighth member of the European Union. Oh they went wild for that rooy Beautiful. Well, let's take a quick break. when we come back talking about NSU, which and just to make the transition It's very interesting. This is the tragic death of Henry Noak, which has being a much more dominant issue than the fact that we're about to go into an economic recession caused by the Stitzformis. and it tells us a lot about the tragedy It also tells us a lot about politicians are talking about and concentrating on it and the things the public are interested in is take a quick break and then back back from there This episode is brought to you by Lloyds. Now it seems like there's a big new political news story every day, but what we often don't get into is all the systems which are ticking around in the background, which actually keep things running and keep things safe. In fact, an awful lot of what keeps the UK going isn't talked about that much at all. It's the diplomats abroad doing great work on behalf of the country. It's our intelligence agencies, it's civil servants, it's systems, its structures. It's the people that are out there when we're sleeping that we just frankly gr And finally, fraud, you know how fraud evolves, how it spreads, how much effort goes into preventing it by governments as well as businesses. So take Lloyds, they operate at a scale where fraud protection isn't just a feature, it is part of their infrastructure. Yeah, Lloyd's are very serious about it. They've invested one hundred million pounds in technology to protect their customers from fraud and they average twenty three thousand five hundred and fifty one transaction checks every minute, which you have to say is pretty vital system for all of us. So search Lloyd's Potect yourself from fraud to find out more about how Llooyds helps keep you and your money safe. Based on Lloyd's banking group data. twenty, twenty three to twenty five Hi, this is Garal Linka from Goldhangers. The restest is foootball. This episode is brought to you by Wise. It's only when you start moving money between currencies that you really think about the exchange rate, the fee and what might be hidden away in the small print Whether you're living abroad, paying someone overseas, or just trying to manage your money across borders, you want a fair exchange rate and easy transfer and no surprises along the way. Wise keeps things simple WS is a smart way to move the currencies you need around the globe. It works in more than one hundred and sixty countries and with over forty currencies. Most transfers arrive instantly. WS uses the mid market exchange rate, like the one you see on Google, with no markups or hidden fees. So when money needs to move, you can see the rate Know the fee and get on with it. Join millions saving billions on hidden fees by downloading the Wise app today. Be smart, get wise, Ts and Ts applies. Did you know about one in three people with plaax psoriasis may also develop psoriatic arthritis, which causes joint pain, stiffness, and swelling this sound like you? Listen to what it sounds like to be a million miles away From Fia Galomab Taken by injection is a prescription medicine for adults with moderate to severe plae psoriasis, who may benefit from taking injections or pills or phototherapy, and for adults with active psoriatic arthritis. Serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections and liver problems may occur. Before a treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, fluax symptoms, or if you need a vaccine Imagine being a million miles away Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about trimphia. Tap this ad to learn more about trmphayia, including important safety information Welcome back to the Restless Politics with me Rory's Chet. And me Alist Campbell. So while we were in Finland, Rory, the news back home was absolutely dominated by the killing of Henry Novak eighteen year old student at the University of Southampton just being dropped off a few weeks early by his mum and dad gets involved in an altercation with this guy Vikram Diga, whose brother calls the police to say that He Viram has been racially abused. Pleice arrive. Henry Novak tells the police that he's been stabbed ar not to believe him, they put him in handcuffs and not long thereafter he dies, his killer is Vikrim Digwar. he's now facing a very, very long jail sentence, but the thing The incident and particular the body cam footage from the police provokke this extraordinary debate across UK politics about so called two tier policing, about anti white racism whipped up by Nigel Farage, whipped up by Elon Musk and then eventually whipped up by none other than the vice presresident of the US. So now that we've had a few days back Roy, what have you made of it all? Well, I think the first thing is that it took, I think, quite a long time for most people to really understand what had happened. So I think it's quite important to get back to what actually happened and then we'll get on to the question of what did the police do wrong and what we can conclude from that So as he say, it's after eleven PM at night And the first thing to understand is Henry was a lovely kind Empathetic boy and Vkram Dick were Brually murdered him, ended his life, plunged Henry's family into complete misery brought incredible shame on on whole series of bits of society and of course massive social unrest But what was the incident that led up to it So Henry Nok is Walking home about eleven PM at night, he has a chance meeting with a M, Vikram Digwa, who is wearing a large sk dagger openly on his clothing. and this is something which meembers of the Nihang Order of Sikhs in Britain are able to wear. It's a privilege. it's also very much a responsibility and it's never to be used in an offensive way. There is then an incredibly complicated debate, which we don't need to get into about the relationship between the Kiran, which is a knife ceremonial knife which a Sikh carries within his garments and the display of an external knife associated with the Nihang Order of Sikhs and some members of Sikh communities saying that this wasn't a Kiipan, this was a Persian knife. The basic point is that certainly from the point of view of Ikrnd Diga and many young Sikhs who wear this this was part of their religious identity. There is an interaction and Henry perhaps cheekily asks Vikram if he's a bad man and starts filming Digga on his phone Digwa seemes to have felt disrespected and felt the filming was intrusive. He grabs the phone. and then we have to assume that Henry struggled to get the phone back During which time Viram Digwer's turbine was knocked off, which Again, he is a seek may well have seen as a serious act and mark of disrespect and made him very angry He then stabs Henry in the chest and then twice in the leg and then once in the groin and once in the face and then films him Henry is now dying. from this attack and Vkrams is standing outside his family home and his brother comes out and his father comes out and they call the police. Not to say to emergency service someone's been stabbed come rescue them. they call to say a drunk guy is at our house and has been racially abusing us and called me the P word And we've restrained him. So the police deploy quite quickly and the police arrive in their mind dealing with a young drunk man who they've been told has been racially abusing this Sikh And when they arrive The mother of Ikrandiga has hidden the knife the Police, it's dark. Henry's wearing a dark top And he says he's been stabbed You cannot see any visible blood on his stomach. And the arresting officer and this is the critical moment, says, I don't think you have been stabbed, Mate. In fact, they ask Digwa, hasas he been stabbed? No he's not been stabbed. I don't think you've been stabbed Mate, he handcuffs him And meanwhile, Henry is dying. What's going on?Question number one, why do the police ignore somebody who says I can't breathe. I've been stabbed. Well, the answer is that it's actually quite common police officers say to me anyway when they are handcuffing someone for somebody to say things like that in the hope of getting released. So it may be that the police officers aim off for that. Secondly, they've framed the whole thing in the head that this guy's perpetrated. However, It's bad police procedure, right? There should have been some professional curiosity. They should be treating both sides equally and they should be prioritizing a claim of stabbing over anything else. And it's also very questionable why they felt they needed to handcuff somebody who was basically dying on the ground and didn't need to be restrained. O. Yeah. I think that's a fair summation and you know, you took a few minutes to explain it and the reason why this has become such a toxic issue within the public debate is because None of that framing or nuancing was indulged in by those politicians and those parts of the media that decided turn this into a story not about a murder by one person of another one, a horrible person of a nicer person turn it into a debate about race about two tier policing, so called. And I think the reason why people became so offended by Nigel Farage in particular who very grandly announced and bear in mind, this is Nigel Farage who's been hiding for two weeks because he refuses to answer questions about where all his money is coming from He appears in some sort of grand looking field with a few sheep behind him tweets that he's going to make a national address like he's the king or the prime minister at a time of war or something and talks about, you know the response must be one of rage. and unleashes, I would argue or plays a significant part in unleashing a debate where the facts very, very quickly get lost. Now you've set out the facts, but you've also given a Cext. What we are led to believe by people like Nigel Farage, Zia Yussef, who was sort of the one who went out to do the interviews. And this on the back of the father And I do think in these circumstances, actually genuinely respecting the family's interests is a good thing to do And his father said, We want to use Henry's heartbreaking story to make change for the better. We do not want his death to be used to create further division hatred or tension I would argue that much of the media Nigel Farraage, Rupert Low didid exactly that. And I think it was absolutely shameful. And I think actually the reason that Nigel Faraage did it in the way that he did it is because of politics, because they are worried that Rupert Low, who was in reform and has now set of his own party restore He's a very wealthy man independently. He's also got the backing of Elon Musk. First Elon Musk piles in One word tweet rage. Rupert Lowe's tweets routinely tens and tens of thousands of repostings because Musk has told the Twitter algorithm to do just that. And then what happens? And then you see this I mean I was, you know, I mentioned this book last week, Roy, this is fascism And there's a paragraph in here Every fascist destroys the truth by undermining public debate and censoring criticism The propaganda machine is given free reign to strip facts of their authority. robs society of the ability to think independently and create an alternative reality Every fascist does this by lying brazenly and frequently N not to convince people of the lie but of the idea that there is no truth but the one he decrees. Now this is obviously particularly about Trump I think it applies here. When facts lose all meaning There's also no need to be consistent in one's lives. In fact, this journalist says the ability to change this story at will is a demonstration of power. I think we saw that with the five million donation. we saw it with this. Sia Yusf went on television and was asked whether he had heard The father saying he didn't want this used politically And he said, yes, I did, and that's exactly what Nigel was responding to Solute Bhit. Well there's also this amazing thing from Vance Yeah. So Vance, I mean, you know, I've just given an account of what happened on that night, right? So take that on board. thinkink what you like. Fundamentally, what you're thinking about is a lovely kind man was murdered by a horrible violent guy who ye Totally unjustifiably overreacted to whatever he perceived as a sight and murdered somebody for no reason at all Vant said, Henry Noak died the same way a civilization dies. He should still be alive today, and he would be if the last few generations of European elites had stood their ground against the politics of self hatred and the mass invasion of migrants, many of whom despise the West people who love it.? So there's a lot of things going on in that sentence, but it's right at the heart of not just the way that Jenie Vance thinks about the world, I suspect the way that a lot of the far right and Britain think about the world and a lot of the way the AFDs think about in world. So let's just break that down, right? What is he actually saying there? The first thing is this claim the mass invasion of migrants. This happens because the mass invasion of migrants Presumably what he means is Henry Nok would still be alive if Vikram Digwa wasn't living in the United Kingdom, I guess, is the claim right? Many of whom despise the West and the people who love it. Is he saying Vikram Digwa despise the West and the people love? Or just many migrants despise the West and the people who love it? And then the last few generations of European elite if they stood their ground against the politics of self hatred Henry would still be alive. What does that mean? How would that have saved Henry's life if European elites had stood their ground against? self hatred. And there seem to be two different claims being made here One of them is are very straightforward We don't like this guy because he's not white and he killed a white person And the second is this claim that If it were not for anti racism policy DEI We wouldn't have had this horrible scene of the police responding unsympathetically towards Henry and taking Victram Diga's side the argument before they arrested Digwa. But the other thing is look, what the People like Vance and I would argue Farage and Rupert Lowe and the Far right in the UK, they're brilliant at gaslighting. They're brilliant at taking something that may be true. and completely inverting it The truth is, if you look at all the data you are more likely in the UK to be a victim of bad policing or bad treatment in prisons or bad treatment by the criminal justice system, or bad treatment in relation to stop and search if you are black. That is indisputable They want people to think that you are more likely to be treated badly by the police if you are white The other thing they want you to s. is that because we've had, you know, immigration and we now have a large proportion, a sizable minority in our country who are quotes don't look like us, donon't look like JD Vance, don't look like Nigel Farage that somehow that is the reason we've got crime, okay Fraser Nelson, who doesn't share my politics is very much on the right I would argue his politics, but I really recommend he's written a very good substack about this with the facts And he points out The immigrant population has doubled and during that period crime has actually calved He says that Vance is talking about a Britain that simply does not exist. And he's doing it because of, you know, we should maybe tell people that the leading interview on this week is the brilliant Norwegian historiand Arnaest Westard who speaks about a lot of the things we were talking about earlier in relation to what might lead to war. But next Monday, we've got James Clevery. and You know He was actually interesting. He said a lot of interesting, measured thoughtful things, but I think that you know today Kemy Bayademock' making a big speech about aspects of the Equalities Act that she doesn't like. And look, I'm sure it's sincere and I'm sure it's what she thinks and it's certainly in line with things she said before But I worry that this is an example of an initiative announced because a debate has shifted and it's been very deliberately shifted. people I would hope are to the right of Kimmy Bayadenoock. I think we're dealing with a fake narrative a lot of the time. is nonsense. It's nonsense that white people get treated worse than black people in this country is nonsense. Well Well then okay, so one of the challenges James made an R interview. so as a conservative politician, we haven't had many conservative politicians on is to say that The Labour government is not good at listening to all minorities. It's good at listening to some minorities. I guess what he means by that is it's not very good at listening to the minority white working class population. Let me try to Get beyond Farage is a massive hypocritical dick. and you know there's no more evidence for his hypocrisy than the fact that when Trump commits a crime.. He's on record saying There should be quiet anger as opposed to rage, you know, notothing's achieved by rage. When it's a woman Sarah Everet, killed by man Farraage says we mustn't allow tragic murder to turn into attacks on men and police But when it's a white man killed by a Sik He's not saying we mustn't allow tragic murder to turn into attacks on Sikhs and the police For that all side that, what is the issue going on in the background? Why are so many people who wouldn't consider themselves natural reform or restore voters agreeing with Farage And what's what's he? There could be socioeconomic arguments. so you'll have friends who will say this is because the white working class are not doing well economically. But there's an underlying sense that we have created a big, big compliance state. So what you'll see a lot of the right wing media talking about is that the amount that councils have been spending on diversity initiatives has doubled in the last few years. number peopleeople specializing in this stuff has increased that since the Equalities Act, many civil servants artments are gold plating this And the argument, I think that ro we have to make is quite a difficult one, which is we absolutely defend the Equalities Act, that Kemy Baynock is wrong to get rid of it, that every developed country in the world has protection for women, for racial minorities, for the disabled, and that this is the basic sign of a civilized society, but there may be problems with the way in which things are complied with and implemented And people may be sensing that one of the frustrating things with government and maybe in their mind, they associate it with health and safety They associate it with bureaucratic box ticking is a whole culture of compliance which seems for them to go against common sense. And what they're trying to say is, listen, the police's job is to be good police. G in there do their investigation, be curious about what's going on. And what on earth does this guy think he's doing, handcuffing somebody who's lying on the ground? And what is the context that could possibly cause that? Look, I agree with you in an ideal world pololice would have arrived. They'd have first of all saiden, o, this guy's on the ground. need to check he's okay and a fairly routine check might have established that he was bleeding in several parts of his body, okay? And then there might have been a different story. And I also agree with you earlier when you said that the Because of the lies that were told by the killer's brother in reporting the crime to the police, the framing that was given to the police officers who were arriving on the scene was such that they were, you know, in their minds programmed to think something. And actually there was a very interesting example of that in the interview of James Clevery. Do you remember when He was telling us a story about one of his superiors when he was in the military and we were discussing racism. and I had just I made an assumption that the guy he was talking about was white because I'm assuming that his Officer. 's he's a rare non white person in the military at that time or relatively rare, I'm assuming he's white And I made an assumption about that guy. And then when I learned he was I sort of changed my mind. So you know, we all do it. We all make we all have framings in our minds. So the police have done that. It's a terrible mistake I feel I do feel sorry for them and I feel sorry in particular For I don't know if you read this Royory, a woman police officer who was wrongly named online as being police officer who was there who's now living under police protection. Apparently she's not even in the police force anymore. And so when Politicians like Farage talk about rage, and as you say, with all the hypocrisy underlining it, there are people who are going to take that and say, right, let's go and beat up the coppers in Southampton. Let's go and have a little dr. which is what happened. Exactly for international listeners, eleven policemen were injured, a police dog was injured, and there were terrifying scenes of guys literally attacking police lines, trying, I think, to get to Vkram Digwa's house. Yeah, and now I read something about one of these. So now there's a number of people who were involved in these violent protests who are now being going through the courts. Some of them will go to jail. Most of them are being held in custody. And I read something about one of these guys with his family Weeping, weeping as he as it dawned on him that he's probably ruined his life. On a weekend when the multimillionaires, the Fages, the musks, they'll be off doing what multimillionaires do at the weekend. Not giving a down Really about these guys who are now going to spend a considerable part of their life in jail having been whipped up to do this now Do they have any justification to be angry? You have justification to be angry that one police officer, two police officers didn't handle a really difficult situation well in the moment Right? Do you really, can you really claim If you're a white working class person The police treat you worse than they treat Non white people, I just don't believe that stacks up And then to have the vice president, the vice president of a country with one of the highest murder rates where you get kids killed in schools because anybody's around, you know, they've got this ridiculous gun culture And he's telling us about civilizational decline akes me vomit and these people, the Farages and the lows, they side with him JD Vance against The police who are trying to protect us and who are trying to you know stand up for British values I mean, I just think's evidence of how and I think to go back to our first half of the discussion Richard Tice, Net Stupid Zero. It's part of the same thing. Take any debate and twist it to an agenda. And also the normalization and degradation of British politics. I was listening to the debate in Parliament when we were in Finland and I realize that the language being used in Parliament is not language that would have been around when I was still in Parliament. How easily Generix stands up and says, willill you accept that it's not just black lives that matter, but white lives matter too? orr people asking the homeome seecretary to commit that white people will be treated equally under the law. I mean, it's really weird. I mean, that stuff would have been b six seven years because iticul It's really ridiculous to ask Shaban and Mathmouood, willill white people be treated equally under the law? right? It's ridiculous. And the fact that people that that's become normal in politics and JD Vanceer's tweets have become normal. and that there is this incredible thing going on now. If you point out what Le said or what Farash said, the first thing you get back is, oh, well, you know It's exactly the same as George Flyd. George Fllyde said he couldn't breathe. And Henry Novak said he couldn't breathe. So it's Geor Fld, right? Geor Floyd said he couldn't read when he was literally being murdered by a police officer It's a completely different case. He was being murdered by a police officer. He was saying to the police officer who was strangling him. I can't breathe. That is a very, very important difference. Again, people point out that Kirama took the knee And that Kir Tharas said, I think at the time, that he felt shocked and angered by George Floyd's death. But that is not the equivalent of Farage saying, I suggest the rest of us respond with pure cold rage. Do there's all these false sequinences? Okay, enough for me. No, your point about language back from my book, Um It has this line, right wing populism Was seen, you talk about how things have changed in the last few years. Was seen as a call for a different more direct form of democracy, certainly not as a threat to the system itself. Now that view is shifting. What we're seeing is that these right wing populist parties are radicalizing And the dividing line between the radical and the extreme ride has become wafer thin. So what low is doing is moving Fage even further. The Farage was trying to avoid all this stuff not that long ago. And that I think is, you know, and I got the feeling from from talking to James cleverly, people can make their own minds up on Monday. I've got the feel he's very loyal to Kemy Baadenot, but I think I get the feeling he's maybe a little bit worried that they are they're moving too far in that direction. And your point about language is this just listen to this. this is Uberto Echo, who has written about this onem for years emphasizes that every fascist uses simple language reminiscent of Orwellian newspeak quQotes an impoverished vocabulary and elementary syntax. This is Trump in order to limit the instruments for complex and critical reasoning This form of language almost seems designed for the messages on social media platforms like X, which in turn become the megaphone of contemporary fascism. Now you said, if you go back to the election when we were in New York, the American election And we were having a debate about whether we thought Trump was a fascist And I remember you said, well, not sure Is it that helpful to say so blah blah blah. But I remember you're saying, I think you're right, but I do think Musk is a fascist. And I think X, I mean, yes I'm still on it and you're still on it and I kind of don't like the idea of vacating the space as it were. to see That stuff being whipped up and to have the richest man in the world, the South African, I would argue fascist, and the American Vice President When they see it being whipped up whipping it up further in order to project a vision of the world that I think is actually abhorrent to most decent British people. But then bit by bit, you normalize it, you change it, and people start believing Well, these councils, I mean, the reason we haven't got any potholes mended is because you know all the doers employ people to tell us that we should respect black people more. And the worst thing, even Ruper loocal, this outroarory. And this is why I worry about and by the way, part three of our reform funding minis series is out this week. We're now into the Harbourne story. So there's Farage with you know untold riches to spend I was talking to somebody up in the Makerfield Bialection yesterday who said Somebody that they were out knocking on the door and somebody told them me we're going vote restore And they were showing them the stuff on their phone that they were getting And even restore, even Ruper Low called out what reform did because they took something Kemy Badenoock said. Kemy Badennoock was trying to say, you know, we should be color blind as it. shouldn't matter if you' white or black, everybody gets treated equally But she said, I'm fed up with this white Lives matter, Black Lives Matter. okay? They clipped her saying The bit about I don't care about white Livves. Okay Now, Kemy Baylock's black So a big, big graphic Kemmy Badennoock's face and basically I don't care about white lies is then put out. Even Rupert Lowe called that out And this is what, this is what the millions are being used for. Not he doesn't give a damn about people like us and coming on our podcasts, doesn't give a damn about all the stuff he normally does. They are just using this money to distort mislead, subvert democratic debate. That is my humble opinion. Very good. Well, I think we violently agree on this. So thank you very much M to come Qestion time, lot of issues. we've got Milee, Argentina, Armenia, the World Cup and many directions to go, so look forward to speaking again tomorrow a