The Makerfield By-Election Outlook

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Be out of the blue, Breaking news, Defense Secretary John Healley resigned from the cabinet Worse, for Kz Thama, he did so at a time when the Prime Minister is facing a possible leadership challenge in the coming weeks or months With the likeliest challenger, Andy Burnham exactly one week away now from the by election that may see his return to Parliament and Perhaps most devastating of all, John Heley makes clear in his resignation letter that leadership is the issue. this line which I suspect hit Kir Starma quite hard You have been unable, writes John Heley, and the Treasury has been unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country So he's got Rachel Reeves as well as Kir Starmer in his sights and he's going down fighting, I guess. The issue is defense spending More particularly what's known as the Defense investment planl which he thought had been broadly agreed some time ago, which has been sitting on the Prime Mister's desk amid some very, very negotiations. So we've got a few immediate questions, who replaces him? When does the Defense investment plan get published? and Lindseay Hoyle, the parliamentary speaker, exploded today at the idea it might be tomorrow when most MPs are away And I guess it also begs the question where does this leave Kyestama on the authority front. So Rory, where would you like to start? big new.'s I mean I really want to get into the politics of this with you and it's something that you'll know much more about than me. And you know, one of the things we were talking about just before we came up on air is might John Healley be thinking about himself as a future Pime Minister positioning himself for leadership I think the question of who the next defefense secretary is is slightly less interesting because it strikes me they'll be a bit of a name dark anyway. Ciff Andy Burnhams going into the running in a But what I want to do is just remind people a little bit about what the big conversations about The big conversation is famously about the fact that following Russia's invasion of Ukraine People have become more and more conscious the fact that the world is getting a much more unstable place and that the United States has made it very clear that they certainly not going to financially continue to bail out their European allies But they may actually not even come to NATO's assistance. Yeah. So there's huge pressure on all countries of which Britain is probably the leading example in Europe. maybe along with France, Britain's leading military Europe's leading military power to step up And the honest truth, the matter is They've talked about a two point five percent expenditure and then there's a target of three percent and then there's a three point five percent and then there's a five percent. And I you know, I remember all this because I was chair of the as comm' defefense select commommittee, so we spent a lot of time. Going for this n, I's very proud that we led a campaign to get to two percent. But what nobody was quite clear enough about at the time when we were getting up to two percent, which is what Trump was pushing for in twenty sixteen Is two percent is nowhere near enough to begin to do the range of things it wants to do. And just very quickly again for the audience There are basically three types of British military that you could have You can have this sort of nuclear Britain which is broadly speaking what we're actually doing. We're going to be spending probably eighteen percent or even perhaps a quarter of our entire defense expendit just on our nuclear weapons. the new generation of submarines, the new generation of nuclear weapons. And that's essentially a bet that says our biggest single guarantee against Russia invading us is that we have these nuclear weapons that we can fire So that would be a military that spent an enormous amount of nuclear weapons and then had some special forces in cyber Second type of arm you could get Well, a sort of Ukraine European land army And that would involve Britain maybe having some tanks, but would certainly involve it having massive stockpiles of missiles We've got some exquisite mishus, but we got very few of them. Some them we've given to Ukraine, many of them we haven't bought. We don't have good surface toir protection. So if you wanted to get yourself in a position for a Ukraine style war, you would have to buy an enormous number of things from tanks to missiles, which we weren't planning for since nineteen eighty nine because we assumed there wasn't going be another European war And then the third thing is to keep doing what we were talking about through the nineties, two thousands, twenty ten s, which is global Britain And that's aircraft carriers that's heading off to the Pacific, that's playing around with orcas, that's employable expeditionary forces We almost certainly We can't afford even one of those. We definitely can't afford all three and it's in the middle of this that John He has found himself back over Ohoy, it is pretty grim when you look at the numbers of size of arrmed forces, equipment and kit that' available to us. this is why the defense spending issue is so is so fraught because the truth is everybody accepts that we need to spend more defense, but other ministers have fought very hard to protect their own budgets and John Heed has clearly decided, this is not enough. I can't carry on being person speaking up for strong defense if I don't believe that we're actually providing. because that's why that line was so devastating because There's no more There's really very few things I can think you can say of a Prime Minister and you're not keeping the country safe, which is of course what Kemy Bay, not the Try leader has leapt upon I think the you talk about the politics of this, I mean, I wouldn't rule out John Heley as thinking that he might be a leadership contender I mean, John Hedley is a very interesting guy. He's been around for a long time.'s and he's been a ministeral shadow minister pretty much all of his career. He came in in nineteen ninety seven when we won the first of Tony Blair's three terms H backgrounds in the trade unions's a very pretty effective operator within the party, Now I don't and this thing literally came out of the blue. He was actually at I was at a charity dinner. Margaret Madononna, the former genereneral Seret of Labour Party who died of a brain tumor that his charity has been set up in her name. And I was at it the other night with Fiona and John Hilly was there with his wife, Jackie smoch him briefly and it now turns out this was Monday, it was Monday and this was the day that he was first presented with the complete defefence invvestment plan. So he was obviously sitting there, didn't let on anything, but he was obviously sitting there really considering his considering his future and If you'd have said to me at the start of this Parliament, Heres Here's Kirirst Stara's cabinet, asssuming the last five years Who dod you think's going to stay in the same job for the five years? I'd have put John Heely in there We interviewed him on leading. He's very, very I got a message today from somebody fairly high up in the MOD who said, you know, we ministers come and go, but we were rather hoping this one wouldn't go He's respected, he's been good at his job The first part of his resignation letter actually is just a sort of very long list of all the things that he and Cal Kower have done together to boost our defenses. So I think it's a very big thing Can I just come in on that just footnote from here? So I'm in Cumbria And I was speaking to some people up in the train and then I was speaking to a cber in front here. All of whom are from the right, very much from the right. and you kept voting reform voting. And their immediate response was, oh John Heedy, I thought he was he was the good guy It was the one that we liked. And the reason I just wanted to say that is that It's a reminder of something that Summer could have done but decided not to do, and it's a bit surprising that he didn't which is to lean into labour being the patriotic party of defense. You can have an argument with a treasury, and that's this where I'm afraid Rachel Reeves tends to get stuck, which is The treasury will be saying, as it's always said, oh, are you sure you need all that money? Are you sure you're spending it in the right way? Your procurement's very expensive? Why are you not buying cheaper drones? Do you really need to build this new aircraft system now. Can't you wait till twenty forty five There are many more productive things we could do with the money if you're trying to kickstart the economy. So all that stuff you could imagine a different world in which a different type of leader would say having that conversation. I understand a lot of detailed points, but Broadly speaking, we're in a different world. Putin, Trump, we're going to spend more on defense And we're going to be generous and we're going to get ahead of this Why do you think they didn't do that? They would probably argue that they did, not least. we talked several times on the podcast about the fact that they, you know have shredded overseas aid and development money to put it into defence We've also talked about whether the easier thing might have been earlier in the Parliament to say we're facing a new defense threat, We're going to put up tax that didn't do that. So these are choices that you make. think what Ministers have found more frustrating is the time that this has taken So We had the Stategic Defense review, where George Robertson, Fiona Hill, Richard Bacon came together and wrote a pretty comprehensive Deense review. It was always projected that that would be part of a two stage process. Th then would come the Defense investment plan about how we get to these longer term goals And it has been sort of just, you know, knocked about and knocked about I couldn't help thinking when I was reading John Heley's resignation letter, Ben Wallace, another former defefense seecretary that we spoke on leading. If you remember in his interview How many times did he attack the treasury? I mean, it was relentless. And I wonder if John Heeeley just got to that point of saying You can't reason with these people Just quickly on the sl, let me sort of push it once more. So I think if you Ask the question Do a big review pull in very high profile people like George Robertson. You've got a youN help Richard Barron And they come up with a recommendation. You got to do it. You got to do it And then if you give the impression that you're going to bring together a deffense investment plan, which is going to meet the challenges set out in that review go to do it. And you've got to do it quickly and you've got to keep your defense secretary on side And that is good for Britain's defense, but it's also would be smart politics because losing your defeense secretary looking like you're trying to sort of cheese pair around the edges doesn't get you anywhere. I mean, they'll end up spending a fortune on defense anyway. They're going to have to spend on nuclear, they're going to have to spend on allas But what Rachel Reeves will have achieved with the treasury is a little bit of savings around the margins, which are not sufficient to transform her finances are just enough to irritate Healy enough that he actually walks out on them and gives everyone the impression that Labours weak on defence So why did they do it? Why can't Samas see this The wor and just to underline that, the one part, I mean, people are of all their criticism of Kst Stama And you know, hes faced plenty But he has managed to develop this reputation as being pretty sound on foreign affairs and defense. So the one kind of really strong point that he has in his favor John Heley today is considerably undercut. And I mean, I was speaking to a couple of ministers in the immediate wake of this and both of whom said they did not see this coming at all. They'd heard there were kind of murmurs and there were troubles and one said actually they thought that John had maybe underplayed his hand in the first part of the negotiations so the treasury didn't really fully understand how kind of on the rampage he might end up being. I don't know But neither of them saw this saw this coming but both did say that it's kind of of a piece of It's just taking too long to resolve of decisions not being taken pace that they need to So and if you just think to think over the last few days, there we are on Sunday President Zelensky flies into London, why London because K Star has managed to develop this good relationship with Macronum Mare as the E three, the European three to big deffence powers and You know, he they say the right things and they talk about the support. But then literally within two or three days to have Your defense secret to come out. and say that since we've started arguing about this defense investment things have actually got tougher, not least because of Iran Andy refers to the high North and the potential of war in the Arctic So I can't really answer your question. It's very, very frustrating. What it speaks to is this sense of You know, we're now because of the challenge to Kar Starmer's leadership, because of sort of everybody hanging around waiting for this by election It's almost like people think, Well, we can't get stuff done And I don't know you' be in the conversation. You've been in many, many of these conversations and I've seen a couple of them When a minister goes in to say Unless you do this, I resign As the Prime Minister, you've got two choices, you either Ccede reluctantly and very angrily because you don't like being blackmailed orr you say, I'm sorry I'm not doing it You can resign And Star has obviously chosen the latter option. I guess there would have been an option for him over the last three days to be like, okay, John, you can have everything you want Just stay and he's chosose not to. Why do you think when push comes to shove Starmer decided to dig his heels in and let Haly go rather than give him what he wanted Well, I don't know that's the nature of the conversation. The other bit the other you've given the two options, the third option is that you have what I would define as a very kind of human conversation and you win them around on a different basis. Now until You know, doubtless we will hear more from John Healley and we will possibly hear more from K Tharmer, but we probably won't get the true ins's and outs. But I have been in those situations where you can the fact that this It literally came out of the blue for most of us, for most people inside the government and for most people outside the government. I think actually speaks to John Healey's credit in that I don't think he was doing what a lot of ministers do, which is to sort of you do the bullying and the blackmailing and the intimidation through the media. He didn't seem to me to do any of that So this has presumably been going on for a while But I wonder if it speaks to a deeper frustration and that that is what has provoked it at this time I look, in the end, I suspect that he, if Kerarmer thought that He's ended up believing the treasury' ended up believing that this is the only way that they can affordably do what John Healey is trying to do with regard to the Defense invvestment planl U but it's a it's a very, very severe blow this. I mean, it's like You know, West Streeting resigns, Well, he's the health secretary and he gets replaced and he's a very effective communication and all that. But I think when we are in this position, you know, that conference that you and I were at in Finland last week, you know, how often do we were talking about Russia and the threat K Stalmer made a speech recently where he talked about you we're looking at a possibility by twenty thirty that Russia might launch an attack upon a NATO country. So we do have to crank up. And by the way, Roy, I yesterday was at an event with Mick Mulvaney, who was Donald Trump's chief of staff for a while In his first term And he was very interesting about this. I mean look our politics are sort of way apart, but he did say something I was really struck home, he said, Look I get why you feel the way you do about Trump and Ukraine But youve got to understand most of the people in America they're sitting' thinking, hold on a minute, you Europeans, you're way richer than Russia The European economy is a lot bigger than Russia's. Wh do you keep looking to us And it's sort of Because Trump does it in the way that he does it, it brought way home to me that we We We're not being serious enough about this threat and why European response has to change? Well Yeah, absolutely. although I would say there is also a degree of gaslighting. There's a degree of Trump's people and the Republicans. tryrying to dress up Very, very savage, humiliating series of retreats from NATO by suggesting it's somehow our fault and you know we should It's very u tempting I noticice for Europeans to fall into saying, well, we've got to be honest, we didn't spend enough of defense, maybe Trump's got a point, et cetera But the truth of matter is that America just on this for a secondc All it needed to do, it didn't need to spend the money on Ukraine. it didn't need to keep pouring money into toato, all it needed to do was when asked Will you hold to the Article V guarantees? you, when the seecual defeense asked, will you support a Baltic country that's out by Russia? say, yes Because ultimately what America can do for us is find nuclear weapons. I mean, that was always the nature of their deterrent going all the way back to their Bies. And so America doesn't get to get away with saying that this is just about us speing. but agree we're not spendingough And there's much more we can talk about there. I mean, we've in the past this discussion about What the hell happens if we start ramping defense expenditure up by Tens of billions of pounds a year. That's a lot of money And it's also something we don't admit enough to ourselves that it's not a productive a very productive form of investment. We like to tell ourselves scary stories that maybe this is going to be great for our industrial base. What the treasury will have been saying and I've got some sympathy with them is, hey, wait a secondc, look at the kit that you're talking about buying a lot of this, you're buying from the US A lot of this is just British taxpayers' money being shipped over to the United States to buy exquisite American kit and employ American factory workers So And also just just just germs there on Russia. if you look at Russia They did have a bit of kind of economic sugar rush on the back of, you know, suddenly being back in a major war But it's now one of the reasons why their economy is struggling. So Yeah, I think exactly yeah, there's been some very interesting modeling I think the OECD and the World Bank and others have done it by economists showing that a pound invested in defense historically simply doesn't return that much compared to a pound invested in infrastructure or education. So if what you're primarily trying to do is get economic growth, yes, you do defense, by all means, if you think you're going to be attacked, it's Vital for your National security Not. Don't kid yourself that that's an easy route to growing economy. Anyway, all that aside I guess Haly But again, if people haven't listened to the interview on leading We're going to, I hope post it again and give people a chance to listen to our conversation with Heli. I mean, he's a really unusual person. And as you say He's not central casting for modern politics at all, right? going into an election where know, W streeting is about a run for the leadership who's barely been since twenty fifteen. I mean, Ker Stam has only been in Parliament for just over ten years P previous P primeister in a Rishi Sonak. alsoso only came in in twenty fifteen. Even this trust that he came in twenty ten with me John Heley is a very different world, a world in which somebody can be in parliament for thirty years of, you know have all you know reach back to Tony Blair, right? Yeah And he's somebody who, as you say, hasn't been Briefing the press hasn't been doing what traditionally, if you were Gavin Williamson or Grant Shaps or Liz Trust leading up to a resignation. you would have been taking Tim Shipman out for lunch and you would have been And the Sunday Times or the spectator would been running stories for weeks. you know, he's on the verge of resignation, he's on the verge of. That's one of the reasons I guess why your colleagues were surprised because actually in modern politics they expect to be able to read in the pages the spectator of the Sunday Times, who's going to resign And they're very confused if somebody resigns who hasn't been. they do they do liege ahead of a game. Let me just give you, Roy, somebody just sent me this a statement by the trade body ADS for the aerospace, defefense security and space sectors, okay? Kevin Kraan He says John Eller has consistently shown himself to be an intelligent, supportive, highly principled man who has the best interest of UK defence top of mind everything that he does. His resignation today is something to lament and it is truly a damning reflection current state of affairs, it should not take the resignation honnerable man for the realisation to sink in that we need this defence investment plan as soon as possible U So he is he is respected and but he's a very he's also a pretty canny political operator, John U now it could be look if I'm thinking a bit cynically Has he Had a conversation with Any Burnham as he had a conversation with street? I don't know. I don't I don't think so. presumably presumably though, he's odds on if either of them gets in to be back in as defense sexual or foreign sexualually. I mean if it not only not it's not a foolish move, right? No Well, hold on though, Rory, O if they come in under able to say we are going to be spending a lot more than Kiram was going to spend. And then they have they then have to have the conversations that Rachel Reeves and others have been having with the other ministers to say, that means taking this from you. And of course, where the Tories are zeroing in inevitably is on welfare The event I did with M Mulvaney, the guy who was chairing it, we were just chatting beforehand and he said, lookook, I think that you know people have got used to this government and by the way, it was another I did another of my show of Hs. It yet again a majority that wanted Kzarma to stay. we'll buy that for now. But he was making the point that he felt that the point at which people in his world started to lose a little bit of confidence was actually the welfare vote when the government was trying to get through the welfare changes and about back bench rebellion and forced it down. So all of these problems The problems that John Heeeley set out today, the problems that others are setting out who if somebody replaces Kirama, they're going to be in their intro from day one So the same choice is going to have to confront us. So we're then back to the question that you and I' talked about basically since day one of this government is how do you get the economy going again? And You know, they, and I think they were doing pretty well on that until the Iran thing. that has set them back But this politically this politically today W're streeting I clearly it's damaging if you lose a health secretary, bit When the country is in the state that it's in, when the public isn't yet, I don't think, fully educated about the full nature of the threats that we're facing I think when your defense secretary resigns and when it's somebody who is actually seen as so loyal and seen as solly reliable That is pretty devastating. But just on that one, I wonder whether I mean help me understand, I would say that what Your nowysis makes sense for a normal Prime Minister who's in for the long run But if you're somebody who basically is not going to be prime Minister in two, three months time How much more damage can he take Does losing his defefense seectary make much difference if in a week's time, Andy Burnham's going to be running against him. mean Maybe he just thinks Yeah, this would be pretty damaging if I was going to be the prime minister and takes the next election, but really I'm not really the prrime Mister anymore. and I' buggered if I'm going to be patronised by John Heely and you can go But I don't think he thinks I don't think he thinks I don't thinks he is going anytime soon Um, and You know, he's made that clear and You know, I think the other thing that I was hearing. D you just sry Aicely explain thatry. I think most of thes don't quite get that you think that he thinks this is that What is it? He thinks Andy Burnham won' win a Maclefield or if Andy Burnham challenges in the autumn. He won't be defeated. He thinks this a chance that he could still be Prime Minister in twelve months time. Yes. I don't have any doubt that he thinks that Um and And the reason I think he thinks that is partly because of this thing that I've been saying to you that there's There is this feeling uh amongst, you know, not traded large sections of the public Is this the Labour government going to go exactly down the same track as the Tory government and keep changing their leaders when times times to get a bit tough Secondly, I think he is probably persuading himself that And this is the bit that I think a lot of his colleagues doubt that he can Do better, be better, operate better U and I think that he's not convinced the Andy Burnham So let's say Andy Burnham loses. he goes back to be Mor of Manchester, that doesn't necessarily strengthen Kstama's authority, which has been weakened by the fact of Andy Burnham trying to get rid of him So let's say that then where streeting becomes the name to go to for somebody you might challenge or one of the others that we talked about before, Angel Loreno, whoever So I think he thinks He can be any of them Now, you may think that's crazy Um, but if you are, If you have, we're back to we're back to the Tom Baldwan thesis that he's always being underestimated. It's almost like he's He wants to have his back against the wall and that's when he comes out fighting. that's when he thinks he can win. Otherwise you would just throw your hands up and go So I think he does think that. And I also think that Um If and when it comes to it, you see It was very who is it today? Penny Mordant, Penny Mordant out a statement saying, Well done John Heley at last somebody putting country first party second. And if you remember that was one of the big messages from Kistama. run to the election country first partarty second. I think his general message that he'll try to communicate to the country in order to put pressure on the party if and when there is a leadership election is are we serious or not? Are we really going to Ditch that idea of country first party second I'd have to say I talked about the whole sort of personal conversation thing and and I think this is a weakness. I think a lot of ministers say they don't They don't really know him that well. They don't really have kind of deeply personal conversations where he gets a sense of what they're thinking and all that stuff. If I were him, I'd be I'd be on the phone twenty Burnham And I be say learand they You're a talented guy, you've been a great mayor of Manchester, and I get it. You don't think I'm doing a great job and you think you can do better. That's fine But I've just got to tell you, I feel I've got a right to stay and I told you this thing that somebody me said to me in Redford. I think a duty to today to show that I can do this better than you think here I am. Meanwhile I'm going to create this new department of Constitutional change and development. I want you to be the big mred devolution blah, blah blah. I would do that kind of thing. That's the sort of conversation. I agree. but you're imagining Starmer I'm afraid like your friend Tony Blair, who probably could do those sorts of things. I mean look I imagine Tony Blair probably could also have convinced his defense secretary to stay you know, what do you say you say to Jon, He did a lesson, Joh You know, We're all on the same page. abbsolutely want to do this. you know, you saw me with Zelensky on Monday. Yeah you're so important to this. We just need, you know, a little bit of this and we'll do that then. And you can you ought to be able to keep them on site, right? Well, maybe that is maybe that is the issue. That's that I mean, one the one of the guys I was talking to today Um said that is that, you know, we keep we keep yearning, we keep hoping to be better U the other thing that one of them said that, you know, they felt that the other day and I'll just spit it out. He said, you know, we detected the hand of Morgan McSweeney was when there was this line running out that Tier Star would stack any junior ministers who was backing Andy Burnham. I mean, You can't run if your authorities been weakened already. You can't run things on the idea of fear. You can only run things on the idea of You know having the vision, having the drive, having the leadership skills. and look, I think what most these guys will say at times they see it, at times they see it, then at other times They don't But how he handles this is important, How he handles this is really One of the things I love about doing live shows is we're getting a lot of comments. and I just want to firstly thank people who've been watching and sending in comments. But also what the comments represent is a lot of our listeners beginning to think about strange dimensions that could go on like so Tim Hansen R seven three, two. to the nineteen thirties, who's our Churchill? That's a very interesting framing, right? So in this thing you know, maybe people begin to feel that Stam is a bit of a chamberlain. And John he is a bit of a churchill who's kind of saying, here's this big threat from Russia. We need to rearm. You're not rearming. and he becomes the great thundering voice on the backbenches calling for a totally different strategy O we've got David F. Murphy Does Halley's principled resignation put him in prime position to beabour's John Swweeny, John Sweenney being, of course, the leader of the SMP, Scottish leader who came in afterichus Sgeon, who sort of It looks a little bit like John Heeney from a distance. So there's a bit of a similar feeling to the two men, isn't there Could he be the steady elder statesman who takes over to stop the bleeding? So anyway, I just thank you, everybody Gainbold because these are are really interesting sort of historical comparisons, national comparisons what do you think about Hley is the John Sweeneney of the Labour Party? There is a bit of John Sweenney about him isn't it? There is Yeah I mean and that's not's not boald, is it? You're not being balded there. John really doesn't have, I think John Swweenney has a little bit more hair than John Heley. By the way, Roy, I didn't realize the comments were coming in, but there's one of them tled exactly four PM from Scotty Boy Rules zer seven, willing to absolutely guarantee it's Rory's fault that they're late. We were not late. We were bang on the time. you don't loyal. That's very loyal. I don't like itarant' another way. Rory of the Tory is always late You he Bloody. Anyway, I like to say to everybody that I was on fifteen minutes in advance Yeah, and somebody other, we're going we' not going to be dragged into this kind of stuff. also let's get back to the biggest use. me let me finish you with with a final thing Where are you at the moment on this Mcfield election. if you were a betting man, and I know you're not betting man, but if you were a betting man, you were trying to think where we're going to be in a couple of weeks time where Star is going to be is is Or maybe I'm not going to put that on you. Do you think most of your labor colleagues basically assume that Andy Berham's going to win and therefore he's going to mount a leadership challenge to Stmer in September. Uh I think a lot of them have obviously been up there In fact, I was to to somebody today who said they locked at somebody's door to be told, o, I had Evette Cooper yesterday W Streety the day before He say, you know, where where can I see where can I see Bridget Phillipson? So they're all going up there Um I think it's going to be tight. I think it's going to be tight. I think Andy Bernon will win. I think most of them think he will win But he might need a little bit of restore vote. reform. I think that's kind of happening up there 's absolutely a two horse race. the stuff that in a normal universe really would have damaged the candidate Kenyan and all the terrible things he says and his awful performance on question time, not to mention Fage and he's stoking of the riots and Farraage and his five million pound donation. They don't seem to be damaging as much as I think they should and as much as maybe labor hope that they might but I think probably will win. I wouldn't put my life on it, but he probably will win. I don't think we should expect that he's going to come in on Friday morning and announced that he's taking on Kir's armor. U and I think that would backfire in the party if he did But I think there is an assumption that there will be a challenge at some time U and I think there are very, very mixed views of that Uh The other thing, just my final point about the the KiS armor operation. I was speaking to a couple of MPs earlier in the week who was saying They were amongst the ones who at the start signed that sort of round robin that Kiiaara should stay, which I assume was a piece of Downy Street or Whip's office operation. They said it wasn't. they just did it U since when They said, we've had no contact, we've had no encouragement, We've had no sense of, you know, what the plan is U so I think it's kind of down a lot of this is down to old fashioned political management just not being quite what it should be And welcome. Final thing is we' going to finish, but a tip from a comment. So Andys here says waiting for Andy to challenge will be toxic. He needs to do it immediately So that's that's one of one of your listeners watching that So maybe something to think about when we do our coverage. But the other thing that I feel and I know it's difficult for R Andy Burnnam because he's I just got a giveif challenge that's Jared Spears four four zer three. Thank you. waiting for Andy challenge will be toxic. You should just do it instantly if he wins. But see if you look at the way that and you've seen this in some of Andy Bernam's media appearances is that He's almost having to pretend that he' that he's doing something that he's not. He's running for an election in Makerfield. He wants to put the place on his map and take the place as I can go, etcetera U And that means that he can't. I mean, for example, if he was suddenly to make a big speech about the future of defense spending or, you know, our policy on Iran, people would start saying, wait a minute, you're the primeinister.'s going But actually, The thing that the Labour Party and the public need to know before there is any change is what he does believe and what he does stand for in terms of foreign policy, Europe Middle East, all these big stuff that this big stuff that would be on his plate straight away he became Prime Minister So I think I think whether toxic is the right word, I think it is certainly going to be a period of really quite odd turmoil for the Labour Party which just underlines to me how sad it is to go from in less than two years from a landslide wind to So this, it's just It's not great Well, Alisa, thank you very much. Thank you everybody for getting on to this live show so quickly. And please do listen to our interview with John Healley, listen to our interview with Ben Wallace. And we are going to be fascinated to see what happens in this whole field. Thank you all very much. Bye bye Bother