Final Thoughts on Political Renewal

Well, it may not have been a surprise given that we all expected it to happen and indeed predicted it on Friday's episode, but it somehow still came as something a shock That Kir Starmer who led the Labour Party to a landslide victory less than two years ago. is now heading for the exit door One decade since the Brexit referendum, tenth anniversary tomorrow, his successor, almost certainly Andy Bernam, will be our seventh prime minister in that time The brutal nature of politics was never clearer as he stood outside number ten listed some of the many changes made to Britain but accepted that his MPs no longer wanted him And so fighting to hold back tears as he thanked his wife and their two teenage children, He said he would be gone by September and that he would go with good grace This afternoon, by election victor, Andy Burnham will take his seat in Parliament. So what then What are the challenges he has to meet to ensure he lasts longer than the growing list of recent predecessors All that and more in today's special live episode of The Rest is Politics. This episode is brought you by Fuse Energy. Now moving home has a way of revealing a mountain of background tasks and under the to do lists that's dealing with the boxes, the broadband, the change of address forms, and the discovery that you own far too many mugs. And because of that, people often just accept whatever supplier happens to be there, they're too busy unpacking, but choosing your energy supplier really shouldn't add to the pile With fuse energy, switching supply takes just three minutes onene of the quickest jobs on the moving checklist and crucially, one that could save you up to two hundred pounds on your energy bills. Almost three hundred thousand customers have already made the upgrade. 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Ask your doctor, visit Botoxchronicmigraine. com or call one eight hundred four four Botox to learn more So Lory, your first reaction to, as I say, something that was both surprising and somehow shocking It was, of course, as I'm sure everybody will say in massive cliches awful to see yet another Pime Minister emerge on the steps of Downing Street to resign. I mean You know, I was there when David Cameron did it, when Theereresa May did it. And then of course Boris Johnson did it, then Liz Trus did it after whatever it was forty seven, forty eight days, then Rishi Sunak did it So there's that, this sort of odd sense that Britain is becoming a country that's spitting through prime ministers that are Belgium or what used to be an Italian race, although the Italians now hang up. secondecond thing I think Many of us will feel a sense that Gratitude to ussca suummer. A gratitude for the wayays he conducted himself Gratitude for his dignity and things he did well But I also think gratitude abo all for the fact that he saw the writing on the wall and didn't try to joe Biden it and hang on to the last moment But what did you feel? I mean, this must be very deep for you as somebody who's you know, right in the heart of this whole story I feel a mix of things and of course, you know, I know Kir very well, Fion and I know Vic, his wife and their kids and I did feel that sense of sort of brutality. and I think You know, it's hard not to feel there is something a little bit unfair that I mean, you know, for example, if you look a lot of the stuff on social media yesterday, it was basically saying, can't wait to see the back of him worst prime minister we've ever had I think that's a very, very hard claim to make when you look at some of the ones that you just mentioned, List Trust probably and Boris Johnson. most of all. But the other thing that was happening yesterday is people were pumping out on social media longong, long lists, including one that included stuff that I'd forgot about of the things that the government has done. But but the reason why it's particularly brutal, I think, is that Ultimately There's something about Kama that the MPs have concluded The public are never going to like Now what they can't work out and I think Andy Burnham is almost certainly going to be the next Prime Mister. I think he's a lot of qualities, I think he's got a lot of strengths. But he's going to meet all the same challenges and indeed, they're all going to transfer almost immediately. to him, you can already see it in the media The way that they're starting to turn on him a bit. the social media stuff is starting. And so and by the way, the other thing I felt, particularly is Steve Bray, the kind of the blue patted anti Brexit campaigner The first half of Kir Stammer's speech was drowned out almost by oat to Joy wafting up from from Whhall And thankfully, it calmed down so that sort of the most important part of the speech in a way was given with a bit of dignity I don't think it's a coincidence that we're coming to the tenth anniversary of the Brexit referendum. because I do think it's that is the point at which I think our politics became virtually unmanageable And what we've had in the last decade is a succession of prrime mininisters trying to make sense of a politics that isn't really making sense. And I think Andy Burnham, if he does come in that he's really got to seize a sense of boldness, doing big things, including things that aren't necessarily expected. I think the devolution agenda, he's made for that. We've got to have much, much more of that. He's going to have to confront the Labour Party with the choices that Kir Starmer fail to persuade them to back, not least in relation to welfare spending at a time that we need so much more for for national security. But I felt a mixture of sadness for him sadness for his wife and their closest friends, but also a sense of Real Pitique. onnce the Labour Party decides and then moves as it did on the back of that election result on Friday, where Everybody you spoke to was saying, it's got to be handy, it's got to be Ay, hereere's gott to go, here's got to go. Once that happens The realal politique does take over U But you know, I find it hard as you say, I've been there when prrime ministers have come and prrime ministers have gone. and it's always a very, very sad thing. But ultimately, I think he will get a lot of cudos for the fact that he said yet again I make this judgment based on the interest of the country and you know, you recognize that that's in a way what he's done. He's basically said, once you once you lose with the majority of that he's got one hundred and seventy whatever is, four hundred and eleven labor MPs, if you've lost that support, You can't carry on And I think that's right. and I think the Labour MPs were also right that once they had wasn't going to be able to lead them into the next election Everything just followed from that. There's no point keeping him along till the last moment if everything suggests that he couldn't win the next election. You might as well T takeake a risk, bring in someone else U I think Pumably he will now become quuite quickly go from being a sort of national Um, of ridicule to becoming a national treasure You can see this quite quickly with Gordon Brown, John Major, Theereresa May too some extent, Rishi soona I mean there will be a there'll be a long, long twenty thirty years where everybody says he was a really decent, great guy and what a pity he stepped down Well it kind of depends what happens next, doesn't it? I mean, I thought he got the tone right today and that's important Um But then you know, there's still an awful lot of stuff flying around. I don't think the relations between the two of them are good enough and I think Kia's probably too proud But this idea that actually Andy Berer might say, look, your big strength seems to be foreign policy foreign affairs. I don't have much experience in that What you think about staying as foreign Secretary? don't I suspect that won't happen. So it then depends on whether he decides to stay in Parliament, whether he decides to to go back to the law, whatever it might be. So I think theres there's but this the thing about Prime ministers is if you've been a a significant prime minister and bear in mind, you know he's one of a very, very small number of people who runon elections as labour leader you're talking Atley Wilson Blair and I'm missing one. You talking you're talking a very, very I might not be a missing one. You're talking a very small number of people. Did Dick Callahghan win an electionless labor? No, no No, he didn't. So you're talking a very, very small number of people who won elections, the majority that he won was the third biggest ever labor majority after Tony Blair wins in ' ninety seven and two thousand one. So in a way, it's just an incredible story about taking the Labour Party Leading the Labour Party at a time when as he said in his speech, people said the Labour Party was finished leading it in fairly short order to a massive landslide victory and then within literally less than two years he's announcing his departure. So I guess there is a deeper question about whether this is this says something about the way that our politics is has changed. You mentioned you mentioned Italy. I was looking at this yesterday. Do you remember these lab rory? Amintori Fanfanni, Giovanni Guria Giriaco deemita. they were all Italian Pime ministers between Sillvio Berlusconia and Georgia Maloney Georgia Maloney has now been in power longer than all of the leaders of the UK since David Cameron. So What is going on? Is it to do with the change of what MPs expect of their leaders? Is it just to do with public opinion? Is it just that the media landscape now is virtually impossible? I don't know Well and I think u the Labour landslide, of course, as I think we pointed out in the night, was always a little bit misleading. I mean, actually, it was a pretty low percentage to the vote. Historically, it was a percentage of the vote down in the low thirties, which wouldn't have won a majority and was driven by the fact that We were already beginning to collapse into the beginnings of this five party system that we now have, which allows you to Wen what feels like a very big majority with You know, only a third of the voting public and much less of the total public voting for you So in a way, he was set up in a slightly unfair way, or maybe set himself up in a slightly unfair way by saying, you know, I've won this immense majority. It wasn't the kind of majority that prerevious P prime Ministers had in percentage terms when they came in see gotot less, I think of a vote than even Jeremy Corbyn Um as Jeremy Corbin lo loves to point out. I guess question now, I think we can pay lots of tributes to Kia The question now is what's really the challenge for Andy Banam assuming it's Andy Benam slightly be worest streeting but let's assume it' sandy burn And there, I guess, if you go through those things that you saw on Twitter a lot of, which is people laying out all the great achievements of Kir Stammer and You know, isn't it unfair that he's leaving given he did all this stuff? And I don't know whether you have those achievements there, but they may be worth at least sort of summarizing the kind of things people are saying And thinking about why, although they look great post on X, they don't actually add up to something that really convinces the public that you're a great Prime Minister. Yeah, or they or maybe maybe more that they don't they don't tell a story. I mean, I won't go through them all because there's one here and it just says not bad for a quote failed PM And it's got a hundred hundreds. Let me just go through some. endnded the doctor strikes through a paay deal, setettled railway work of pay disputes, established great British energy,ang brought rail operators into public ownership, reationalized rail franchises, employment rights bill, Mved to ban exploitative zero hours practice, increased national living wage, renter's rights bill, strengthened tenants' rights, created a national landlord database, set a target of one point five million homes. I think we all know that one's not going to be met. lifted restrictions onshore wind development, increased NHS funding, school funding, local government funding extended support for Ukraine, reestablish Britain's strength in the world, that it's got a whole list on migration, bringing those numbers down, then on health service, bring down the waiting list, et cetera. So it's it's, you know, there's a lot there as I, I won't get but there's a lot there you can put. The question is whether they add up to a story. Yeah. and do they add up to a story? and also If you were going to be, if I play my devil's advocate part, if you were somebody who was concerned about growth And you were more on the cet near liberal conventional side of business and low taxes, what you might say is that most of those things are about either bringing in new regulations or they're about increasing spending And what got lost in this story was what Stalmer was elected on, which is it was all about growth. It was all going to be about growth All these stories were going to fix and grace. And what actually you got there is the story that Your friend Pat McFatom was complaining about which is that it's really a story about doing a lot of things which are very popular, of course. with the Labour Party because they're anti austerity, there're more spending, more workers' rights. What's happened is he's The triple lock pension in place, very generous course lifted the two child benefit cap he some put a lot more money into welfare, they haven't really fixed in any way the problem of the number of people who aren't working. And so a lot of those things boil down to things which are very, very popular with the left protecting workers's rights and increasing spending on welfare. but There's not a lot on the other side, which is How are you generating growth to do that without borrowing more and taxing more Well I think what we've said since the election, both of the way that Gestarmer and Rachel Reeves have conducted their management of the economy that The big message was growth But I think we always struggled to to kind of get our heads around what the key components of the growth strategy work And I think that is the most important thing that Ker Stalmer's successor has to grapple with. And obviously who appoints his chance is going to be very important part of that I do think he starts from a good base in being so closely recognised as somebody who believes in and has been a If you like for Manchester, a beneficiary of devolution and a more a less kind of white haoall centric approach to economic management. But he's going to have to do, you mentioned the triple lock there. I think the triple lock is one of those things that at some point, everybody knows at some point a leader is going to have to confront that Well Why not be the one that comes in on the back of this rather strange by election where you've answered the ex question, who can stop reform? got you've got wind in your sails. By the way, R should just tell you, Nigel Farage has put out put out a statement saying I'm fed up waiting for all these washed up has been to be shoved into place by the Union partarty. if Labour thinks he's got another chance in the election, let's have it now. There will be the pressure for that. But I think interrupt that's a big, big, big question because I got somebody who's quite a canny political operator saying that he thought that the chances of election Gone up And remember this is what Boris Johnson did. Boris Johnson won and he took over a party that didn't need to have an election for another three years very, very similar Tz may have been in two years. he comes in twenty nineteen And he pretty much He promised like almost of us that there wasn't going to be an election because you know we were doing very badly in the polls and he gambled through an election in twenty nineteen turned it around. So There will be some people saying Andy things are're just going to get worse You're as popular as you're ever going to be. you've got this wonderful bounce out of beating reform 's trigg an immediate election and see if you can lead through to a more substantial majority for five years and a bit of a mandate for yourself and get going, which is presumably the Boris inflation And I think there will be that and that is definitely a calculation you'll have to make. And if you go back through the history of those calculations, Gordon Brown When he took overtip from Tony Blair, looked like he was going to and then didn't. And I think in some ways didn't recover from that because that was You know, never underestimate how the people in these positions of leadership will get judged on the really big calls that get remembered. And that got remembered and people thought, oh, you were going to do that, but then you didn't and now you're pretend you never were you were never going to. Johnson as you say, Theereresa Mahay is the other. Salia drew a lesson in this though. She decided I need my own mandate, went for an election, didn't do very well and was thereby very, very badly weakened I can see the case, I can see the case, but one thing I think is very hard to imagine, Rory is that you know, I'm not sure that a combination of Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela could top a three the sort of three figure majority they got at the last elections. as you say on quite a low turnout, where if you take out the people who didn't vote, only one in five people voted labour. So maybe he could. That's certainly something that's going to be that you'll be thinking about. I think what Kirstar has done today is genuinely a benefit to to Andy Burnham because he does need a bit you do need a bit of time to think and to prepare Will there be a contest? If there is a contest, what is your pitch going to be? If there isn't a contest, how do you get round the question of democratic legitimacy on the back of a by election? you know with a population of sixty thousand And then I was scribbling, one of the problems with this has happened ever since we started this podcast for that stuff just seemed to happen. that stuff that you say are one day suddenly is out of date. So this morning, I've been busy rewriting my my column for the New World. and I was actually thinking if we if we actually think of the things that K Tar did less well, okay What are they and how do they translate to what Andy Burnham might do And the first thing I think the most important thing to me is there has got to be absolute clarity of strategy. It's got to be really, really clear from day one, this is my strategy, this is my plan, this is what I intend to do And I'm interrupting here, but Listeners want to know again, what is your definition of strategy? How do you think about a strategy? How do you define what a good strategy is? It 's what I call the big how. It's the means by which you turn your aspiration change in the case of Kestama into into an ongoing story, an ongoing narrative that where all the different bits, all those hundred things that I that I pointed to that people can relate them to the bigger the bigger narrative. And it's also something something that gives you the leader in the case of the Prime Minister, but also the team, an understanding of where you fit inside a bigger, broader message. And I've never been clear to be honest, what that has been in the last two years. It's been a bit of a idea about it The idea is that Whatever you thought of Margaret Thatcher or Tony Blair It was very clear to people I I remember talking to many people who'd been in Mal Fetcher's cabinet and even the junior ministers, there was a real sense that Everybody in the department knew what Maggie wanted and that made it very, very easy as a junior minister to make decisions, take control, and the civil servants would follow through. If you don't get that, it's not just a problem with public communication, it's also a problem with internal management, which is that given there are so many process problems, legal blocks, so many reasons why civil servants are a bit skeptical about ministers who keep getting changed driving ahead with things you really need that sense that if the permanent sectually would appar pick up the phone to number ten, they would know what the answer would be and that if Alistore Rory is saying This is what we're doing. This is genuinely something that fits in with a strategy and. Otherwise, what I've found is, you know, I would try to do something radical. you know, let's say I wanted to say, I'm We're going to double spending on the environment in DFid there would be a pause where people would think, well is that what the Prime Minister really wants? It all veryready well the Secret of state doing this? But if they're making this huge announcement, is this going to fit in with the with the general story.. But that's why I think that if is Andy Burnham, his strategy in a way help almost wrise itself. his strategy is if you think about what he's been saying He's been saying that our politics is broken. that it's not working for working people in places like the North of England. and what he's shown in Manchester relates to this sense of devolution of power So I think I think that is the if I were advising him, that's where I'm starting in terms of devising an overall strategy. It's about unleashing the potential and the talent of people all over this country. And that by the way, you mentioned permanent secretaries, that will mean and it should mean quite a shake up in the way that Whitehall operates, the way that Westminster operates. But of course, where you go from being mayor of Manchester, big city region, very important part of the country, where Andy has clearly been a success, you know, it's not all down to him, but he's been a big part of the leadership of that that successful transformation of a city region stillill big challenges. But if governing the country is going to be so much harder Let me come in on that for a second because I think this is what I experienced with Boris Johnson So u He is Mare was surprisingly popular. including with his deputy Mess So some of these people, we've interviewed people like James Cleverly, haven't interviewed like Kep Morttouse had worked with him very closely when he was may And they felt he was a good mayor. He was good at delegating, he was good at getting behind them, and they as deputy mayors, could get on with their jobs and do them As soon as he became foreign Secretary and then Prime Minister, that all fell to pieces. So almost everybody who worked for as foreign secretary found him a terrible People like me and Alan Duncan never stop making huge public statements, saying he was the most useless foreign sect we'd ever work for. So There's a question And it's a question I think that struck people like Cleverly and Molhouse who'd worked with him when he was the mayor What was it that was stopping him transitioning to be Prime Minister? and The normal answer is that as a mayor, you can become more of a non partisan mascot You don't really need to take particular party political positions Your power is a little bit uncertain. It's never quite clear wh where the buck stops with you or it's the full to the center, you can deliver things which are very visible buses, bicycles, actually with onlyy Burnham, two buses important part of it And suddenly now you're Pime Minister and you are hit from nowhere by COVID Ukraine And you're struggling with things like public finances, which much, much a very, very different, I think from a local mayor's budget. A local mayor, you know, will have responsibility maybe for Transport, policing, and housing, that's about it usually And that's okay because you can work with the local councils to try to sort out planning, you can I spend some money on transport to get a bit revenue in But you're not responsible for the stuff that is actually It drives the whole British budget. You're not responsible for hundreds of billions of pounds going into welfare and the NHS the really big questions on if you do something For example, what's it going to do to child poverty? And one of the things that Chris Am' being praisise for is that child poverty numbers wentn't in the right direction because the reason they weren' in the right direction was exactly because of this welfare spending that people are cautghtious about. And it would back over you on this man. Well, I think the other thing you can do if you're a mayor you can disappear from view from time to time Whereas you can't do that as Prime mininister. And you know, one of the things that I think K time found difficult in the job. Remember when David Cameron was prime minister One of the things he did best was the public narration of what he was trying to do. I mean, he was on the news all the time and he looked in command and he looked confident. Kistar always looked to me like somebody who that was the part of the job he least enjoyed He liked the part of the job where you sat down with lots of different reports to consider and lots of bits of data to look at and discussions to have, and then you make a decision. One of the criticism which sorry footnote, that's also true of Rashie SZenk. I mean, it's amazing talking now that he's stepped down how many of his ministers say to me. how wonderful he was. Yeah, he knew whato details ye. Yeah. So So that's the first thing. can can you can disappear Andy, I think is a good communicator I'll give you another example. You talked there about you don't have to be sort of so political in a sense is what you were saying. You called it being a mascot. And part of Andy's whole message is about politics is about bringing people together I was last week I was comparing an event for the Tessa Jal Foundation, Tessa Andy's political career started as an advisor to Tessa Jo. Now Tessa was kind of you know, she was walking empathy, she was walking politics is about bringing people together and Andy's got a lot of that about himself a lot harder when you're standing at the dispatch box with you know fifty Malcolm Marshall fast bowlers coming at you from all sorts of different directions.Quite hard to hold on to that line that you won't do party political point scoring. So the communication, I think you'll be much better But I think it's going to get tougher. I think the other thing, you know, to go back to what I think sry, you're making so many interesting points. I want to touch on that one. So one of the tests that presumably is prime Minister's questions where is the classic one where I remember Certainly Tereresa May saying, I remember Rishi Sunak saying, I remember Jeremy Corbyn saying and I remember Kir Stama saying we don't we want to get out of the punch and Judy We don't want this ridiculous you know, sort of stupid lines and we're going to try to be more dignified and collgial And of course, what happened is they were massively punished for it. And in fact, in the case of Kemy Baitnch, she had to make herself much more into a something almost like a standound up comedian, have all these sharp blines ready to go and be much more brutal. So that's going to be the one test for him immediately is Is he going to stand up at premises questions tried to bring the sort of style he had as a magister Mor and find himself being mocked by the opposition and disappointing his own party who quite like that Yeah, yeah, stick it to them stuff Well, just give you one instance on that. by the way, we're in the back of Kledge of Frar's statement where we ask the people who are who are listening are watching now for a poll. shouldhould there be an early election, it's running at no seventy two yes twenty eight U But let's just say, how does he handle all And it's quite strange our parliament at the moment because you've got Youve got the government there with a massive majority And yet the leader is about to go. You have a new leader coming in He's can stand there with all these four hundred odd MPs behind him And at the start they will most of them will try to behind him. and he's going to have allorts of divisions that will start up, not at least when he starts to reshape his team And then you got the official opposition, who were kind of filling this bit. then you got the Ns and the liberals But it was really interesting how often In recent months, the debate has actually been directed over towards this very small group of MPs led by Noazl Farage Andy Burnham has won the byi election in part, actually, by not tearing lumps off the reform candidate. you know, who, by the way, gave a lot of material that could have led anybody say it, but decided not to. So how how do you handle Fage if you' kind trying to do this different style of politics. and what's clear from the word go from Farage's statement on the back of what Kia Starmer. There's no there's no, you know Starmer's good grace in there. this is the Uni party at work and we've got to get rid of the bloody lot of them. So and I think the other thing, just to go through a few other things that I think he's got to Bear in mind, maybe more than K Stared it. The first is The first big decisions really, really, really matter So back in ' ninety seven, our first really big decision was Bank of England Independence If you go back through the early days of the Stala government, the first big thing that people remember was the winter fuel payment. Now they've done lots of things before then But they weren't done with the kind of cut through and the boldness that said, that's what this government is about And just to remind people, the Winterfuel payment, they boldly said that they were going to cut the Winterfuel payment because it costs billions of pounds a year and it's allowing People like you or my mother you don't need the money to get a winter fuel payment. So certainly The treasury has been desperate to cut that for years and years and years. and peopleeople like me who u trying to look at the logic of it, I' always thought it's a bit dafted and Gordon Brown and introduce it. But he does it and then he you turns, doesn't he Exactly. So he does it gets what he thought was going to be political strength by showing we're prepared to take difficult decisions. then is shown not to be able to get it through, even with this massive majority, which suggests lack of political authority So therefore gets no credit at all for that U turnurn. And just on the other thing that I think maybe was underestimated is MPs, I'm speaking to you here, you know this, MPs matter. Um, It is, I think the question the historians will really struggle with This is this question of How you've gone from that majority to this so quickly And I think if you were to ask a lot of the MPs, particularly the new ones actually I think a lot of the new MPs say, I was talking to one of them recently And she said, you know, I don't feel an Oker st any better now than I did at the st Um, And I think the other thing, advisors matter, advisors are incredibly important. I think it's helpful T Andy Burny's now got a bit of time together because again, the advisors you might have to help you be the mayor of Manchester, you're talking about a completely different level of operation. You've got to get the right people around you. and Kirarmer He relied too much on one source of advice. That was Morgan Mcweeney. It's really weird this point about making friends with MPs and getting to know them. I mean, I agree it's a little bit like managing some sort of hysterical ballet company and there's a lot of egos and narcissism around, but it is amazing how consistently You hear this When I was in Parliament Ebody grumbled that David Cameron didn't make enough effort. The story then was that he and George Oswne were too grand. They were this sort of nototting hill set and they thought backbench MPs weren't posh enough and weren't interesting enough and there wasn't any point spending time with them. So they just kind of hung out with each other over there. spepecial advisors and, you know went to the Cotswlds with Hugo Swire or whatever they did, right and Then the story would have been, you know fast forwarding very much the same, I'm afraid with Rishishunok, which people would have said, you know, he's not clubable enough. He's not spending enough time in the tea rooms, he's not spending enough time in the And presumably, understandably, it's because these guys are very, very busy. H have a lot of things on And the fact is Backbench MPs can be pretty boring and demanding and take a huge amount of time. and many of them oddly U Tony Blair, which is I want to come back to you, which is that when I challenge the Camera administration about why they were behaving like this They would say, well, you know, this this is what, I don't know what they called Tony but was it the master any it This was their idea their idea that this is how he did it. and you know it was all about what was happening in number ten, you didn't really need to have to worry about that, but presumably you're saying that you think that actually you made a better job of dealing with MPs than Starm has managed to do. And in which case G goodness, gracious Burnham's got to do it, and he's got to acknowledge from the beginning, it's going to be painful half T time consuming It's not enough to do a few drinks in number ten, which is what the whips will always do. You know everyvery time the party's discontented Why don't we invite the MPs and their wives in three series for a summer drink and number ten. You've actually got to do the horrible thing which is really feel that you're sitting down with them almost in her God, there's four hundred of them, but you got to sit down with them individually. You got to know their names You got to make them feel you care. you got to praise them for the stuff they're doing in the constituency, and youve gott to make them feel that you mean it. everybody Well, I think I've told you before, George Bush telling me that he became president by writing a lot of letters. And I think you do you need look, you can't expect the leader of the Labour Party or the Prime Mister to spend the whole time give an example, you know, Gordon Brown was actually quite good of this. He had people who would who would be going through Hansard to see who made good speeches. and then just drop them a little postcard saying, it didn't even have to be from Gordon Yeah, Gorden said what a great speech you made in this such and such a debate and what have you. So that kind of thing. But I think what look I think if Tony Blair was being absolutely honest, he'd say often it was a complete pain in the ar to have to do it. They had Bruce Gro or his PPS and later on David Hansen and others who were saying to him, We've got to keep the PLP on side. Sally Morgan part of her job, Pat McFadden part of his job was, you know, keeping the MPs. was it was and the whips of course, the two way thing. But most prrime minister's questions, at the end of most prrime Mister's questions, as you say, Tony Blair, unbelievably busy. hundreds of foreign leaders to talk to visits to make that we would always build into the diaries some time for MPs, even if it was just signing bottles of Sots that then go to them for their next constituency raaffle, or whatever it might be. And so And that is, as you say, a ballsching part of the job, but the reason why it seem it's so important for Andy Berham See, I think one of the things that Kia Starmer thought is I have helped transform the Labour Party post Corbyn and I have led it to this amazing victory I'm not saying this is what he said, but I think part of his thinking to all you like who keep moaning at me, you wouldn't be here if it wasn't for me. Right? So don't expect me to spend allorm my time when I've got a country to run and all this and that. But but Andy Burnham doesn't even have that because Andy Burnham's coming in And a lot of these new MPs, I was talking to a group of new MPs two or three weeks ago. This was before it was so obvious what was going to happen. One of the two that were very down on Andy Burnham. They thought that the sort of combination of West Streeting doing what he'd done in Andy Burnham. making the by election so much about him. they were getting a bit sort of iffy about it. And one of them said, Look, he's going to come in here and think we're all going to bow down. He said We don't know him We don't know this guy. So he's going to have to And listen Andy's very good at this stuff. Don't get me wrong. He's very good at relations. He's very good at being warm and charming. and once you're telling him your kid's name, they'll remember it and all that stuff, which is part of politics, whether we like it or not. So I'm not saying he can't do it But I think if we're going through the things that Kir didn't maybe do as much as he should have done, I think the point about advisors is so important You know I got I coped it in a way that Dominic Cummings did, Morgan Mcsweeney. You get some advisors who sort of become in a way too high profile That being said, I think that I will always say the difference say between me And Cummings in relation to Johnson is I didn't have my own agenda And second the difference in relation to Morgan McSweeney I was not the only advisor whose mindset the MPs and the ministers thought mattered to Tony Blair He had a whole group of people and you need that. You can't just rely on one track of advice Hi, this is Garalinka from Goldhangers. The restest is Football. This episode is brought to you by Wise. 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That's why you rack I also wonder whether there isn't an opportunity for him as the Tory party fragments to bring over moderate Tories This is I mean I don't who knows because it might all turn around, but if the Tory partarty is on course to being like the Liberal partarty was after the First Wor War? the strange death of Liberal England. One of the moves that the Cervatives made at the time was to pull a lot of the leading lights of the Liberal Party over into their ranks So I think there are a large chunk of people who are in play. Tin Kemmy Bade Knock and Andy Burnam. if it's Andy Benon and who aren't going to go libdem, much to the fury and frustration of the libdems They're people who are horrified by reform, horrified by the greens, define themselves as centrists And so one of the questions is will he really lean into this idea that he's about unifying And that's again difficult culturally for the Labour Party because you know I Remember these slightly comical conversations that we were having with Bridget Phillipson and Rachel Reeveson. before the election when I was trying to get them to guess U how Tories felt who Tories were and they really struggled to empathize, really understand well he. I think Andy's much better at that, I think because he will have got used in Manchester to dealing with Tories. He was very charming, for example, when we had him on with Andy Street a tale of two Andies, which, you know, definitely worth listening to people That's another thing that would be interesting U Cameron did it to some extent, getting people like Andrew a Donus on board getting former labour ministers to run commissions, chair things, which was actually quite sort of Interesting in the early days. I don't know you remember this, but in sort of twenty ten, twenty eleven, twenty twelve was quite difficult for labour MPs to attack commissions that he'd set up. you know, he put David Lamy looking at Racism and youth justice, I think that was the issue He had other people looking at child poverty who were former labour ministers and suddenly the whole thing becomes a bit sort of unsettling for the opposition. Well Well, it did. I mean Michael Gove asked me to do a review of mental health in prisons and I remember at the time thinking,, I think I've being drawn into a trap here But anyway, such as the chaos that he got moved onto a different job very soon thereafter. So what you're basically saying, Roy, is this a memo for you to take charge of British prisons Absolutely. This this is just my job application yet again to another Labour Pime Minister Bar.view of review of the BBC, review of OCO is not running exact You name it. anyway, standing by public servant standing by. Let's move on let's move on to the thing that I want to get you ono though, which is We've talked a lot about theory strategy style. people skills, but I suppose the big question now is What's in the national interest? and what are the really big calls that a future Pime Mister needs to make. And how does Andy Burnham, let' assume it's Andy Burnam, but it could be Westreeting, but that' assume it's Andy Burnh How does he think about these things? And I've got some dilemmas in mind, right? Does he return to the Rachel Reeves view, which as far as we can understand it, is They needed to cut things like wood fuel payments. Ccessions for farmers on inheritance payments for unemployment benefits because that was an important part of generating growth Qion one question to. Does he like Rachel Reeves and Kiss Aama believe that he really needs to stick to this ruling out any rises in income tax which forces you to do a lot of weird, quite damaging taxes and borrow more money because you can't put income tax up. And broadly speaking, all of that stuff I think sits in a question about competitiveness, winning back business and what kind of Labour partarty this is Is this a party that is about? And I look, I agree, Andy will resist this, but sometimes there are things which feel like a choice between Priority is more equality And our priority is more growth And look, obviously this's a third way idea that you can do both. but We haven't had growth in this country really since two thousand eight and a lot of the problems. and the countries stem from that. And I just don't know how radical he's going to be on the triple lock pension let me finish this one. Is it actually plausible that the guy's going to come in and really be prepared to kick pensioners in the teeth in order to achieve long term Gain. Yeah. Um The short answer is I don't know I'm not sure U But that's the sort of thing that I mean when I say that his first days and his first impressions and his first decisions are going to be so, so, so important. And I think it would be best for him and for the country. if in a way he were prepared to confront the country with the reality of the situation that we're in I think I think you can persuade the country, for example that Russia is a bigger threat than we've maybe been prepared to acknowledge I, as you know, remain obsessed with the fact that we've still not properly fully understood Russia's role in Brexit There was a very, very interesting you know call me obsessery, and by the way, talking to Russia. I must direct people to our leading interview this week, which is BBC Steve Rosenberg, the Russia editor It's one of my favorite interviews actually, and partly because I won't give away the ending, but mainly because of the ending It's the best ending of a podcast we've ever done. That's all we're going to say But yesterday We have this extraordinary situation. One of the things that' kind of obsessing me and keeping me awake at night is that you now have the combined forces of MGa in the United States and Donald Trump. I mean, how gusting yesterday that he sort of pre announced Kiir Starmer's announcement Almost implying that he was on the apprentice and had fired him. I mean it was really It was disgusting. It was disgusting. And then with two lies saying that, you know, when you've got immigration actually coming down and crime coming down, he talked about soaring immigration and soaring crime. So you got MGa You've got the hard right around Europe including in our own country At a time when the hard right is so radicalising some people that have like that guy going around the streets of Edburgh with a knife just going around randomly stabbing Muslims. And I think it's shocking, by the way, that that has not the same sort of pouring as we had recently when somebody was stabbed in gold as green And I think there is a sort of double standard there And then but then alongside that, you see you've got Maga, the hardw and you've got the Kremlin. So yesterday Roy, I don't know if you saw this, one of the Trump did his post saying his thm' going to go U Nice guy, but you know, I always knew he wasn't up to kind of thing you were fired One of the first people to repost that With something like we've got him or you know we've come together and got rid of him or we've got our man kind of thing was Kirl Dmitriev The Steve Witcoff of the Kremlin Putin's right hand man So that's the other thing that I think and that problem is not going to go away just because you're a bit more charismatic proble is going to be that. let's develop that second problem. So if the first problem is domestic growth, the economy The second problem is What Andy Burnham's instincts about the shape of the world and how Britain sits in the world for the next five to ten years Is Russia a security threat to Britain by twenty thirty. All by twenty thirty five is a hell of a big judgment call he's got to make because all our defense procurement depends on that have we've got ten years to sort ourselves out or four years to sort ourselves out drives almost everything he's going to have to do in an expansion What sort of threat is China to us? We forget about China, but actually of course, the reality is that China is something that has wiped out a lot of European and American industriry through a cheap currency, through subsidizing and through a lot of very impressive ge technology strategy, right And then the third one is what's his instinct on the US? And this is a really difficult thing. This is where one never really sensed where Kirstammer ended up in the problem with Sending Mandelson to Washington is Mandelson was still very much struck in the world that if you just had to be nice to Trump and there was no real alternative If Burnham senses as I think the whole world does now that Canary in the coaline, Trump shows us dangerously dependent we are on the US for everything The U.S. basically has us by this throat. and we did rather an interesting Infy, which is coming out soon with Malcolm Turbble and he talked about acity and intent. He said, L, I'm not saying that either China or the US has the intent to weaponize our dependencies But you also have to think about capacity, and you also have to ask yourself, look, if you have built a whole economy dependent on American Coud computing and AI and American Defense procurement and the dollar and the payment systems. Is it inconceivable that Trump or a future American president might weaponize those dependencies to get money wants If it is conceivable, how do you build the strategic autonomy I mean not complete sovereignty, but how you build strategic autonomy and that relates back to the bigger question, the big elephant in the room, which is of course the only way that Britain can do this. is with Europe The real answer to how you stand up to Russia China the U. S do any of this middle power stuff notot just talking about what we do with Canada and Australia and New Zealand an or South Korea, but Accepting that right on our doorstep is an entire institution which was largely designed in order to try to coordinate between nation states and in order to have some strategic autonomy Yeah. and again, I mean, I know Andy well, but I don't I have an instinct for what his answers might be in those, but I don't know And of course, the one part of that you didn't really go into was Europe because that's going to be a very important part of his messaging as well So if you take those things one by one I think it's very, very hard for any leader of the country right now to make the case that there isn't a genuine threat from Russia in all sorts of different ways. and I think we need to be much more open with the public. about what they are. A very interesting interview I spotted the other day with Al Karn, who's obviously just left the Ministry of Defense, he was talking about the influence of Iranian and other misinformation campaigns on Scottish indndependence debate I presume that is based on stuff he was briefed about when he was in the MOD. But so I think all that kind of thing, we need to be much more open with the with the public about So I think he I'm imagining he will be he will want to be pretty hard over on defense. but we all know One of the reasons that Starmer was weakened in recent days is because he lost his defense Secretary John Heeeley, because his D defense Secretary John Heey was not happy with the decision making process around the defefense investment plan and felt that that Kirst Star and Rachel Reeese were taking too long and making their wrong decision So And he's got that problem on his plate straight away if he becomes Prime Minister. Unless Gierstear gets that sorted before he goes. U on China Again, I think is one of those where you have to be very, very clear early on about a strategic position. And so he needs a bit of time to think of those things. And then on Europe I mean, I can remember Andy as a You know re not maybe as obsessed as I am, but not Brexit derrangement syndrome in the way that I am. But at the same time, that's where his's kind of core belief is that Britain's Britain's place is in the heart of Europe But of course, he's just been elected in a constituency that is very much not necessarily of that view, even though most people think that Brexit has been a bit of a des I mean, just to underscore people and consisterency that voted two thirds for Brexit. you, sixty five percent for Brexit. It's a very strong leave constituency I Rory, can I read you can I read you let's see lets read between a few eyes. Andy Byurn was posted as follows Here. C, Tama has given huge service to our country, I want to thank him for his leadership and dedication during such a challenging period H decision marks the beginning of a transition. It's important that this process are conducted in an orderly responsible way I will put myself forward as part of this process. The country expects stability, seriousness, and a continued focus on the issues that matter most and that is what it will get As we move forward our priority must be to work together to get the country back to where we all want it to be. People want to see progress on economic growth, cost of living, public services, housing etceta eta cetera. Political change should never distract from the responsibility improve people' lives. The Labour movement always been at its strongest man it looks forward with confidence and purpose. That is what we'll do from here and we will make sure this transition positive process of renewal for our party in our country So we don't really get much in terms of That's very much sort of being nice to keep. let me give you my final one. and this I guess is really my job pitch. I'd be pitching myself if I was trying to help Andy to try to get people to think seriously about AI. because I think We're underestimating the fact that this could in three years change almost everything It could have a radical impact on unemployment a lot of people could lose their jobs completely transform the balance of power in terms of how weapon systems work. It could completely transform productivity in public services. And the problem is that we built it all on an American stack So what are we going to do about it And somebody needs to sit down with Andy Burnham and get his choices. And again, it'll be his gut instincts, I guess, as well as his thing. you know, what's he going to think if you say, okay, we could Gamble that the U S in the end is going to be nice to us and they're going to want our markets and they're never going to do anything as brutal as cut off our access to these frontier models So let's just keep cozing up to the US and integrate ourselves and maybe build some smart apps and the life sciences which they may want to use and that will grow our economy Second choice We're going to try to build off Chinese open source models. And we're going to not develop our own frontier AI, but we're going to build off Chinese open source models and do some other interesting things as back up. Choice number three We're going to build a lot of data centers and we're going to buy a lot of chips and we're going to host American weights in Britain and Europe. So that if an American president switched off access to the next generation of mythos, at least we've still got the last generation and put legal protections in Final one We go all out for a Manhattan project trying to get Japan, South Korea, Canada, Europe Middle East together to build our own frontier models on the grounds that this is everything. This is like electricity, this iss like gas, it's like nuclear, we can't afford to be without it. So And the cost of that would be phenomenal And he's also going to be facing politics of AI, which maybe we need to talk about more because Eric Smitht, the u former CEO of Google booed off a stage trying to talk about AI at a commencement In America, public opinion is moving against AI very fast. People are very worried about losing jobs, very worried about data centers. And that will become bigger and bigger in Britain Who's going to take up the Ati AI mantle in British party politics? I'm not sure that would be handy, but at the same time again, I don't really know what his views are on all those choices that you've just set out. I thought it was interesting in his campaigning in Makerfield and also in the speeches that he made since winning He did say that part of the challenge facing the country was that we do not go down the dark and dangerous road that American politics has gone down which said to me, he's going to be more in the kind of call Trump out than just sort of, you know, pull the envelope from the from the pocket as it were But that's a big call as well. how how you handle that relationship. It's again very, very high up in his intro when he takes over. By the way, your role is to apply for jobs. My role is to tell you what's happening inside the process now unfolding. I've given Y Andy Berham's reaction, West Streeting has basically just put out a statement withdrawing any possibility of campaigning. He's basically saying he's going to get behind Andy Burnham. He thinks that's what every else should do. He supports what he's trying to do blah, blah, blah blah blah. But he does mention, by the way that one of the bigg issues that he's been setting out plan for Britain to grow again, grow together prorogressive capitalism focused on wealth creation as much as wealth distribution, leading the world in the fourth Industrial Revolution. and protecting people from its risks, modernizing public services, giving Britain energy security. I am reading into that He's bidding to be challenller of the E checker And he's biding to be a chancell chehecker who agrees with quite a lot, I think of what your friend Tony Blair said in his ssay So Can Andy Burnham do that? Can he bring in somebody who? I don't know what the polite word somebody who' from the right the Labour Party. What do you call that? You call it the soft something? I noticice left wing labour people are called soft left. What do you call people who are on the right of the Labour Party Well no soft left is so you got hard left, which would be, I guess you know, Yeahah, but even Corbyn is, you know, hard left in the old days was kind of Derek Hatton, Mulhn Militant. But yeah, Corbinn probably be seen as hard left And then soft left would be more Ed Milliband. Andy Burnham, etceter. I don't think we like to make the comparison at the right So softry, I don't want to be soft rightry. I'm kind of I'm left of center. I'm hard left of center U But yeah, so anyway, what it means is that If there's no challenges I'm just trying to think how this works out. Are we now in a Tresa A situation where there are no challenges Then Andy Burnham becomes Prime Mister in July or September. He's crowns and comes in July. Absolutely That's the way I understand it It may be that somebody else will jump up and challenge you as we string You know, you can h everything. Yeah, exactly. We need to have a competition. The reason, of course, I favored it very much with with Ka Harris is I thought it does two things. One is puts you through your paces and sees whether you really can hack it as a campaigner on a national scale And secondly, if you win it, it gives you a degree of legitimacy and democracy that's actually brought you through You, um So Alison, just come back to this once more because I think it really would encourage Oh this is the death knell for poor aws, isn't it? But I do think there are many, many people and the center ground and in the business community who'd be very reassured if West Streeting became the chancellor. But does that mean that he's not going to get the job? because The labour soft left will be horrified. Well, and the thing he's going to have to do, he can't govern according to one strand of opinion in the lab part, you just can't do that It does have to be broad and merit based. It really does. And obviously politics is a part of it. And you know Has he even tacitly or even openly said to Lucy Powell, who's been very, very important in his campaign, you'll be back in the cabinet, said to Louise Hig, you'll be back in the cabinet. said to Anrew Rayna, you'll be back in the cabinet. That's three cabinet positions. The three other people then have to vacate. and then he thinks, o maybe that John Healy Absolutely. Do John Healey you know, both John Healley and West Streeting, if you're looking for a list of the people who have brought about or helped to engineer this situation that looks like Kirstam is going to resign under pressure and you're going to take over without a contest thenen it's part of policies is that you look to reward the people who helped you get there So that means that then You know, is there a danger then that people who actually you and I would say were very effective? , Well, sorry, there's no room for you. He will want to bring on, he probably will want to bring on some of the younger people to show the younger people that there is a there is opportunity onward. So listen, it's The thing I've said many, many times, having watched one Prime minister in particular, very, very close up, but also Gordon and the ones I covered as a journalist is I don't think anything prepares you for it. I don't think anything prepares you for it. And yes, Andy's had a very if very Quite low He's been an MP, he's been a junior ministry, he's been a cabinet ministry, he's been a very successful mayor for nine years. But this is happening at a time when The challenges facing all of us are so immense. I was even thinking today, I've got my Brexit Derrangement syndrome saying something very symbolic about you know, literally tomorrow is the tenth anniversary of the referendum We're still dealing with that. Today We're talking about possibly having the highest temperature that's ever been recorded. o? We're living with climate change And yet because of Trump and all that, it's going down, we're living with polarization. We're livering with the musquification of the social media landscape. We're living with a media that just doesn't really want to cover politics as it is, it wants to turn it into a soap opera. None of that's changing. None of that's changing unless. Yeah. And we've got I mean final one for me because I think we're coming to all the end. but The big question is Is he going to buy into the idea that Britain needs something very, very radical? that we could't just manage decline. It can't just be business as usual. that we're becoming increasingly irrelevant and marginalized, partly because our economy is just not performing And therefore, he's going to be prepared to take real political risk, show real courage, make some people very, very angry, including fighting with people in his own party and doing things that will horrify you and me. in the hope that In the end, we say three years later, well,, okay I was really angry that he did X, Y and Z, but I've got to say he's got growth going This is reallyady working. Britain's feeling much stronger and more significant than before. Yeah. Well it has to be the latter. So I think the routot is either I wouldn't put my money on this, but I think you know, don't rule out, maybe have an election you take you call for Rj's Bluff. you actually you take out of what you take out of the make a field by election is that deep down the country does not want, even though a place like that does not want Nightl Farrage as Prime Mister, you call that bluff. You then get your own mandate Big, big risk, but you know, don't rule it out. or he comes in, fights off the legitimacy he claims Basically says, no, our cononstitution means I can you know be Prime Minister because I'm leading the party that's got a majority in Parlient. And then he has to show that it can be a lot better than what we've had so far