Access Talks and Civil Service

In twenty sixteen, a twenty two year old known as Posh George was jailed in the US for wire fraud standing by his side when he was arrested was Nigel Farraage. Join me, Gabriel Pogan from the Sunday Times For a wild ride through the worlds of politics, crypto and crime. It's in our new podcast series, Pos George, the crriminal behind Farraage. Search for Post George to Times wherever you get your podcasts I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true allegiance to His Majesty King Charles We at reform demand a general election Where is the Prime Minister He wants to go on a farewell tour, while the new member for Makerfield is asking for a summer holiday to work out what he thinks Welcome to The State of it, the political podcast from the Times and the Sunday Times. I'm Stehven Swinford, the political editor of the Times. I'm Patret McGuire, Chief political Cmentator of the Times. And I'm Nara Spiritt, Deputy political editor of the Sunday Times. And look, we come to you at an extraordinary moment again in British politics. Andy Burnham is effectively trying to build a government and a cabinet in three and a half weeks. He is trying to build the plane mid flight. It is an unprecedented task and it's very, very challenging. and we're going to give you some scoops and insights into that. We're going to talk about why the transition of power as brief as it may be, is likely to be actually pretty fraught and tempers are already kind of flaring over from what we're picking up And then lastly, we are going to be talking about the economy, which is what matters. Who is Andy Burnham's pick for Chancellor? What is his plan for the economy? Where do we go from there? But look, without further ado, let's start with my terrible metaphor. Andy Burnham is effectively trying to build a plane mid flight. I see your plane being built mid flight, Stehven, let me Let me raise you a Wigan appropriate metaphor. Of course Andy Burn. justust to remind listeners, there is no such place as Makerfield. It is the outer suburbs of Wigan Who lived in Wigan on West Wallaby Street? It was A small time inventor called Wallace and his dog called Gromit. And what did Wallace And Gromit try and do or rather Gromit try and do in the wrong trousers, his feathers McGraw was behind him pursuing him kill him. he was building the model railway as he hurtled along it. And that is what Andy Berham is doing is being pursued by his critics in the Labour Party, the bond markets, a growing sense of expectation from Labour MPs among Dozens of whom I stood on the House of Commons terrist last night, including ministers I was led to believe didn't even drink. A minister I hadn't seen ages bought me a pint. and I said, you're never here. And they just paused and said It's the right time to do it. Those people have feeathers McGraw. And Andy Burnham is Gomit trying to build the train as it hurtles towards obblivion. What was it like on the terrorist last night just to take listeners into that? Be we heard that there was certainly some pretty euphoric burnham supporters having f few drinks. Well, I' not Well at one point I was stood by the door and someomebody brought out three bottles of champagne in ice. Analie' Midley was on theerrace. Andy Burnham is a great ally but they weren' going to Annalie' Midley or any of Burnham's allies. They're actually actually going to a tory, which may tell you its own story about how they feel about Andy Burnham. But anyway, it was I hadn't known on the terrace like that since Brexit really because you remember those big Brexit nights Steve The votes went on for ages and The mood was so hence and wound up and people just stood on the terrace all night peopleeople would win famous victories Votes were won, votes were lost, but everybody seemed to be there. But last night, it was just so that Parliamentary Labour Party en masse from about five o'clock just trickling onto the terroriffs Everybody doing the same walking onto the terrorace, sort of craning their neck. is sort of is he here? Is he here? Is Lou here? Is Anelee' here Oh and a push you know Is that Sally Jameson? who's his other Oh is that David Baines? S I speak to David Baines for the first time in my life? Like that was the vibe Everybody was clearly waiting for the for the same thing.m not I'm not entirely sure they got an Andy Bern and visit to strangers actually. He was in the he was in the smoking room at the House of Commons pressing the flesh was I imagine there's going to be a lot of t nights like that because as we know, Andy Bernam L sir like S beer and Kase Starel was not really one to ever. drinking strangers. Act one of the few times I remember Kar Stn being a strangers was after one of the party gate votes, he went down and bought a massive round for everyone. And that was texted to me by one of his advisors because it was it was such an unprecedented andev to be repeated event like notot only is kar in strangers he' getting a aroundound in, but the mood in the Labour partarty is and you saw this with the big picture Andy Burnham yesterday, is This is the guy. P has evaporated from number ten as it currently exists Notice me, notice me. Laura, let's just start with the obvious place that from what we were told, Andy Berham did not expect the potential to be in power so soon. So he was planning to get into power in September, for Labour conference. That's what they were all talking about. a kind of longish coronation that would give you proper time to prepare for government.stead this kind of small act of revenge from Kia Stara, the whole contest could be wrapped up by july seventeenth, just two days before the World Cup final. So he has got this incredibly small amount of time to actually put together his plans and talking to people in Burnham's camp yesterday. Some of them were pretty daunted by the prospect because quite simply They've been fighting by election. They're not ready. Yeah, I mean, I think they are daght in, but I do think they are pretty happy with the timetable. I think initially they might have thought perhaps someone would give them time to think through things, but actually their first reaction yesterday was one of eation. I think they feel that sense of actually a lot of these big decisions will belong to them now over the coming weeks. And that probably is quite a good thing given that they are important and they will set the direction for a burden government. It is daunting, obviously, and now there is a lot of work to do over the next few weeks. but they've got a pretty choreographed plan for it more or less, I think. I mean just the sense of Burnham needs to meet a lot of these new MP's that he hasn't met before. twenty twenty four intake twenty twenty four intake. He is not going to be sat in front of people who will be hoping for big jobs from him at the risk of promising them I mean, N not that he actually would do that at all, but just that sense of he's got a new new intake people he he needs to talk to Others in his team will be doing work in terms of figuring out exactly who they need to talk to in Westminster now that he's arrived. And through weeks doesn't sound like a massively long time, but actually on the domestic front, he did flesh out quite a lot of what he wanted to do during the campaign. And he did articulate that to voters in Makerfield. and his team would say that actually a lot of that is more fleshed out than some journalists give them credit for. I think there are big questions, particularly on foreign policy for example, about just how quickly they can come to views on certain topics. I think there's more or less a fair amount of consensus on quite a bit of that in the Labour Party, so it shouldn't be too controversial, but there's certainly quite a lot of work to be on over the next two weeks, you are Yeah. mean there is tons of stuff to get through, I would have thought, notot least the economy, right? So he's got a big economy speech early next week But we still don't have the answer to the fundamental, probably the most important question of his premiership, Who is his Chancellor? Now what we are told is that there are three names in the running. They are Ed Milibaband, the energy seecretary. West Streeting, the former health seecretary. Some claims a deal was done. Th claims are denied by all sides, but in exchange for his support. And lastly, Shabanam Mu, the homeome seecretary who has made clear that she doesn't want it. She wants to stay as home seecretary, but nonetheless, Andy Burnham thinks she could do a really good job there. So those are the three names in the running. Patrick, can I thrust on you Who do you think' going gonna get it? Well, it was interesting, wasn't it? when Wb Streeting put out his statement of support for Andy Burnham yesterday. There was a big junk in there about the economy. And it was a reminder that he spent the past two or three weeks saying Hey, listen, I know you think I'm a labour students progress Blair rightite, but I'm proper left wing and I'm really intoirc capital gains tax and more taxes on wealth and all of that sort of stuff So you can read that and actually think, is that West Streeting making a pitch not to be the right wing ballast in Andy Burnhams off Great Officers of Stateate, but saying, I can actually really get on board with you know the new spirit of Manchesterism and public control etcera, etcetera I Andy Beron wants to go big though If he's thinking, okay, that I want to signal a substantive a serious substantive change Kast A as government on the economy and the state and be bolder rather than say actually stararism and Starmas government. retty straight up and down center left All it needs is a change of emphasis, a slightly cooler Prime Minister And I can be Britain's Pedro Sanchez, right with the existing policy platform But if he wants to actually substantially change things, he will wants and a need to make E Milliband the Chancellor. and the other argument Fred Milliband, of course, is Okay Some bond traders have a view on E, a certain view on E Milliband This is a government that's going to need to hit the ground running. It's going to need to achieve things quickly When you look across the waterfront of Kir Starmmer's government, Who really knows the treasury as an institution? who has been there T can really get a grip of the treasury and there are two ministers with the requisite experience and economic grounding. You know, People say, one is Evet Cooper, one is E Miliband. to put this in you know, an objective way people would have very different views about those ministers capacity to get things done quickly. Yeah Ed Milliband has shown that he can pick an agenda by the scrub of the neck and drive it through. Yvette Cooper in her domestic briefs has not necessarily had that reputation for frenetic activity and ruthless delivery So there is a this does seem to be a groundswell behind. It may as well be E It depends on who you speak to in Burnners's inner circle. And I think what's telling at the moment is It's clearly a race. We are getting pitches from Ed Milband's allies who are trying to sell why he would be a great transformative chancellor. We are getting rivals who are saying the guy is not pro business, who would undermine confidence in the markets. And it's all quite ugly actually behind the scenes. But Because genuinely, I think Andy Burnham at this point in time at this moment has not made his mind up. Now that may change quite quickly, but it means that we wouldn't be getting these pictures if the issue was settled. Yeah. I mean, the fact that Shabana Mahammouud is still in the race, so to speak and is spoken about as still being in the race, I think is in itself a remarkable go. We know that she wants to remain as home secretary and despite a lobbying campaign by some of Burnham's senior advisors has made that clear, essentially. I mean, speaking to some people this morning, I think there is a real hope that Mahood might well have a more open mind about this, that she hasn't completely ruled it out. But the fact that they are still hoping against hope really, but hoping that that might be the case, I think does speak to the fact that there is, as you say, still some real indecision at the very top about What will happen in this particular perspective? I think you're right to mention that there is basically quite a big lobbying campaign happening at the moment. And actually I spoke to Paul Johnson formerly of the IFS yesterday on Times radio about this question, which was essentially, willill Ed Milliban rattle the bond market? To which the answer is what the bond markets need is a clear plan and a sense that somebody is going to deliver on that plan and that they're not going to ch and change And actually it's possible that Ed Milliband does something like that and would be palatable, to which those in Burnham Circle who are completely resolutely opposed to Ed Milliband would just firmly disagree and would say it's not just about the bond market here. it's about a wider set of economic questions with regard to what Andy Bunden does, partarticularly questions like Net Zero and a kind of broader point about cabinet stability and a sense that you need somebody in that job who is going to be fairly uncontroversial and who they feel will be will not be looked upon as being on resignation watch if Andy Burnham wants to change direction. I think by the way that particular last criticism or worry does apply to West Streeting as well. becausecause he has clear over leadership ambitions, which of course he's extinguished in this particular moment. I think there is a fear of having somebody a number ten who does I mean, that letter was, I think, quite hilarious actually that moment that line that Patrick mentions where it says small differences. I mean, I'm old enough to remember the speech on Progressive capapitalism that was basically it was last week. Yeah days ago was a few days ago. that in part was a bit of a disavowal of some of those tenets of burnamism. The boond markark is not the Bond villains. Eactly. so I think there will just be some fears because there is a belief among some that it's not small differences. it is in some particular regards, quite major differences perhaps or could become so. and because there is a sense that this is somebody who does want to be labour leader who would be capable of destabilizing a Burn and preremiership if things went awry, that is also a path laced with some political risk as well. So it's really not an easy decision. And I think at the heart of it it speaks obviously a big unanswered question, which is what is the economic policy or direction of this Burnham preremiership? If we al knew the answer to that question we wouldn't be placing just so much tootemic weight as we are on this answer of who's going to be his Chancellor. I want to come on to that in one minute. There are two other people I want to talk about because actually when you look at the kind of people Andy Berer is bringing in, it's going to be qu and quite a lot of tall poppies. One of those is Lord O'Neill, so Jim O'Nill, who's a former Goldman Sachse banker and a former treasury minister. And the other is a guy called A Andy Haldane, who's a former chief economist at the Bank of England Both have advocated scrapping the triple lock. Laord O'Neil, I think this week. He told the Sunday Times that yeah, he was trying to get Burnham to scrap the triple lock. He was very open. Yeah the fact that's what he wanted to do. We we should say Burnham committed in a very recent interview with the Iye to keeping the triple lock I mean, that doesn't necessarily rule anything completely. but I think it is so interesting like you're saying that there are people who are pushing him to do things the weend he wandered into the fisc rules at the weekend Lord O'Neill talking about possibly loosening the fiscal rules. But either way, it looks like he may end up being the chief economic advisor. So you could have a world in which you've got some very strong personalities in there, Lord O'Neill, Ed Milliband It could look and feel different. Kir Stama wanted to be a very dominant Prime Minister, he did not particularly like or give much heed to to all poppies, whereas I suspect Andy Berner might do things different Everyone who knows him Andy Burnham and likes Andy Burnham say His great skill is managing relationships and when he's managing these relationships between these hugely dominant individuals How does he, you know, how does he square Lou Haig and Wd and Shibana and Jim O'Neill and Andy Healde in a really fascinating film Sam cooasted the Sky on Manchesterism last week Manill very bluntly said, If Andy Burnham doesn't demonstrate profound economic change, serious economic change, proper his words economic change in six months, he'll be on his knees. So if Jim O'Neill is going into number ten. And those are the stakes. It does sort of make you think Maybe they just will appoint Edmiril Band a chancellor with a brief to move fast and break things basically So we should think about what that looks like. So whatever way you look at it My view is that tax rides are coming. So we get to the autumn There are real issues with the public finances. obviously Iran has blown a huge hle in them. There is defense to fund. and As you said, Laur earlier, actually just look at what Andy Burnham has been talking about on the campaign trail He's been talking very openly about changes to council tax, about a land tax, about he's clearly in the market for taxes on wealth. and trying to basically do less on income. But think he's going to have to go big. And we know the things he's talked about. We nationalization or public control of utilities, some kind of ten year investment plan, we'll have to see how it shapes up. But it is difficult because he has decided that he's going to stick to the fiscal rules. And if you stick to these fiscal rules Well that just ties you as you know, he previously was critical of the very same fiscical rules that he is now endorsing him. But the one thing he's definitely doing next week is endorsing those fiscal rules and then some. And that is a problem. There is limited room for maneuver And well, which pushes you, let's not start another round of speculation on this podcast, but you know you can very easily see how they're peopleeople are categorically ruling out early elections now, but with the fiscal rules as they are and his commitment to them, you can sort of see how we end up getting pushed into Andy's ten points up in the polls. Andy needs his own mandate I'm going to put some bold and radical stuff in the manifest, et cetera etceter. We can see how you end up there quite quickly. They are working on something for the next few weeks to answer the so called mandate question. I think they are really keenly aware of this. I mean, they can'tot not be don't want an ear.iven given that Nigel Farge is obviously immediately and in the most unsurprising way imaginable said that there should be an election and that will be something that you hear plenty of. the moment they try and do something bold Obviously they will be posed with the question of what the mandate to do that is. So I mean clearly that is a kind of circle they need to square. I don't think they're massively worried about that the moment, but I think they're definitely planning to do something on that Right, We are going to head for the interval and after the interval we are going to come back and we're going to talk about the transition, which is supposed to be an ordinary transition, but it already feels anything but we're one day in. So we'll give you some scoopps on that. So back after the interval In twenty sixteen, a twenty two year old known as Posh George was jailed in the US for wire fraud standing by his side when he was arrested was Nigel Farish. Join me, Gabriel Pogan from the Sunday Times For a wild ride through the worlds of politics, crypto and crime It's in our new podcast series, Post George, the criminal behind Farraage Search for Post George to Times wherever you get your podcasts Welcome back to the State of it. We wanted to start by talking about the transition to Andy Bernam's Premiership. So this tiny three and a half week window. And Patrick, I wanted you to take us there was a number ten garden event. I think it was a number ten garden. it was Yeah ye. And Kistarmer had some very kind words to say about his plans for this period. So take listeners inside that party had the good fortune. After I was on the terrace, I went to cross Rver and went to a pub in Waterloo last night. I do more than drink, but you know it was all in service of this podcast and the great newspaper for which we work. And I had a drink with a couple of people who've been at that do and I was speaking to other people who've been at that do. kiss on the hs supporters, people who worked for him, ministerial allies MPs in the garden at number ten. He gave a speech. Victoria Starmer gave a very well received speech as well. but kiss on a beach and it was a classic of the genre. Kirst Amer gives the speech of his life in private and everyone's sort of like Here, come on, whereere was this guy, you know, six months ago? But one thing you said that struck people. You know, he was talking about how difficult it been to change the Labour Party, kicking out and to, etcetera, etera. But a really striking thing he said was he'd be doing everything he could to support the transition, to support Andy Burnham's government. and that he wanted his team to do the same thing and he spoke at some length about how precious labour governments were, you know, they don't come along very often. Let's not Let's not wreck it. And yeah, there wasn't much rancor in the speech or any rancor at all. So the message was very much, I'm the adult in the room. This hasn't ended how I would have liked it to end But the stakes are so high here, guys, we've got it all pulled together around Landy Burnham. Unfortunately, that is already coming up against some challenges. So if we look at this transition period, what I am told is the whole thing has been designed so the Prime Minister can go to the NATO summit on july the seventh, that he can unveil in advance of that The Defense investment planl, which is his big ten year plan for investment in defence, that effectively was one of the final straws that broke Camel's back and ended his premiership when John Hey, the defefense seecretary resigned. For whatever reason he wants to go with that as his legacy. He wants to announce that and unveil it. and then the nominations open on july ninth. So you can see it's been very deliberately done and The issue is that actually this is a huge political moment. This is a ten year investment plan that is about the future of warfare, modern warfare, how we will fight wars, how we will defend ourselves. And obviously there was a massive row over the funding. likeike John Healey said, this isn't enough funding, I'm off. and everything kind of fell around the Prime Minister after that Burnham allies are pointing to the fact that This is You know, pretty outrageous. This surely has to be a decision that is taken by the man who will actually be sitting in number ten. and that for K Starmer to take that decision and try to own it. Well, I was talking to Lord Case, the former c Cabinet seecretary earlier on. and he was saying, it's just meaningless. People will look at it and theyll won't have any authority. No one at NATO will believe it. ask Andy, do you agree with that? So that is already causing quite a significant bit of blad blood. And like I say, we are in day one of transition. Yeah. And I mean I think there will have been some around Stahmer who would have assumed possibly that they were doing something of a favour for Andy Burnon in taking a number of invidious decisions on defence spending that perhaps he might not want to do and kind of answer a question for him before he arrived. Obviously, that's not how they see it, given that some of those tough decisions are actually not the ones that those around Bernham would make. and they want their own authority to be able to do it. And they'll probably want to start from square one and looking at that afresh. So it is really hard because this is one of the main things that The last few weeks notwithstanding and John Halley's departure, also notwithstanding, Sama thinks is one of his strengths. stillill. I mean, he will still think that this defense investment plan will be one of his key signature achievements, even if it comes at the end of a really torid few months of negotiations that's meant his frayed relations with key cabinet colleagues that he's had to force through it on really unpalatable cuts at the beginning to capital spending for, you know all of these departments. So it's really it is really, really hard to see how this doesn't just actually you know further embarrass Thommer at the very end of his premiership now. Yeah All the logic suggests it should be a decision taken by Berham, but there is another problem with this timetable. It's obviously a very tight timetable, but this july ninth thing delays the actual nomination And that means that access talks at the moment, they're trying to work work around this, but they cannot take place until july ninth. Now what are access talks? Access talks are where whoever is the next prrime mininister talks to the Civil serervice about their plans for government. And if you're Andy Berham, who's effectively concocting his plans or drawing up his plans for government with a tiny team of advisers It's a really important moment. Kirst Stammer had months of them, not they did him much good, but he had months of them. know Rishi Sunak had quite a long run in. Liz Truss had a long run in. and it's where the civil serervice says, well, this is how you can execute what you wish to do. So Antonia Romeo would be a key figure in it, and those talks are supposed to take place. At the moment, they cannot take place until july ninth That would be a week just one day over a week before Andy Burnham walked into number ten. And that just seems insane to me. So I am sure I don't doubt this has to be resolved because Time is of the essence here. And surely you want the many thousands of civil servs in this country to be devoting themselves to trying to make the next government work. Yeah I mean, it's interesting because I mean, I wrote the weekend that Darren Jones had arrived in the Makerfield constituency with Louise Haig last week. They'd had talks in which Darren Jones had reassured Louise Hue that actually there was been work done to streamline to make sure that basically work on the budget would continue, that that wouldn't fall off the cliff at all. And that is because Jones and others have all been basically warned by officials that the summer of twenty twenty two was so jarring. that was, of course, when there was a long running Conservative leadership contest that worked just basically ground to a hole and that it was really important that that didn't happen. So I think even though there isn't this kind of official these access talks happening. Clearly this is something that Bern and's team are aware of this problem. And there are some like Darrenon Jones, who I'm sure will talk about as a sort of you know possible maybe maybe leadership contender. but I mean, it'd like to be, but it's not going to happen. It's not going to happen. It's not going to happen. But Daron Jones is people for response on that jokes have come in response. I'm not entirely sure they're the ones speaking this My bemusement on that is that it hasn't been shot. I mean, there are jokes. That's fine. But there's no denial. They're leaning in. There's briefing that doesn people could support him. And I cannot find these people at the moment. We've tried to speak to as many of them as we can. But I guess what it does reflect is a very serious concern under Starmer Allies that an Ed Miliband Chancellorship could pull the party to the left pose real problems. and it again speaks to an unhappy and unsettled Labour partarty. I think that is fairer. Yeah, unhappy and unsettled. but you know those officials you were talking about, Laura should be so lucky because as I was saying you know, a little while ago I was on the terrorace last night, loads of ministers were out there. and one of them actually said to me, I was a bit like, you