Final thoughts on the by-election outcome

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We're a cast, and we put them right in front of you. brrowse thousands of the world's leading podcasts, book host reads or run your own ads, and track every conversion in real time. Same skills you already have, brand new results. Acast Acast d. com slash advertise We bring you a particularly scoop packed episode of the state of it ahead of the most consequential by election in history. That's the Makerfield B election on Thursday, which will bring Andy Burnham potentially back to Westminster and possibly into number ten I don't think there should be a contest. If there is a contest, I intend to be in it and to fight it Laura, sccoop number one What could happen next? Well, there are cabinet ministers, I'm told. some who you might think of and some who you perhaps wouldn't think of who are prepared to move against the Pime Minister should he not set out a timeline and play ball. And I'm told one of those Cabinet ministers has been ghosting Kissed armour. T disort it Welcome to the State of it, the political podcast from the Times and the Sunday Times. I'm Stehen Swinford, the politicalleasure at the Times I'm Patrick McGuire,ie, political comommentator for the Times. I'm La Spiritt, deputy pololice pol Cisitor of the Sunday Times. And look, we come to you this week. It is an absolutely explosive week in British politics. The events of Thursday will have huge repercussions. The Makerfield B election Andy Burnham is coming. and we've got a pretty scoop packed episode. We are going to reveal the potential for cabinet resignations in the wake of the Makeerfield B election to force Kiz Amer's hand We're going to give you an insight into where Kir Starmer's headed at at the moment and how he really, really genuinely thinks he can fight on. And then we're going to talk more broadly about the possible idea that Ed Milibad may be ghosting the prrime Minister, which is coming from Patrick McGuire. But look, let's start with the obvious place. Last week was absolutely disastrous for Kir Starmer. John H Healy, the defefense Secretary resigned His authority is in tatters and yet still talking to people he thinks he can fight on. Now, I was having a conversation with someone and they were saying that his view is that what Andy Burnerham is trying to do here is a coup He is trying to do a takeover and it is fundamentally wrong as a point of principle and he will fight it. he will stay in the trenches and kind of go for it. I'm not sure if that's realistic, but you know, starter for ten there. Can Starmer fight this thing? Well, he can, in a literal sense. technically He can. Yeahah, technically he can He still has The Prime M ministerial bully pulpit the microphone. and he has the constitutional right under the Labour Party rule book to be on the ballot if he so wishes It's one of Jeremy Corbyn's curious legacies, that one. So If he wants to, he can And by all accounts, he does want to. He was badly shaken by John Healley's resignation last week I was having conversations with Kestama's closest allies all week, ministers, people in number ten, personal friends, and all of them said the same thing. And it all came down to what you just said, Steve As one minister who's very, very close to Kist Aarma told me He thinks his mandate was to do two things. Change the country and he feels he's now changing the country. They said don't see the social media ban and stuff like that as legacy building. It is him finally getting the system to deliver. And if you're only listening to that, I did semi sarcastic quotes around that line. And the second thing is ending the this tory psychod drama. That's how he interpreted the second part of his mandate. Kar Starmer, in the words of one of his closest confidants thinks that the credibility of the Labour Party and the legitimacy of the government is at stake. As you say, Steve, Andy Burnham, he thinks doesn't have a mandate, hasn't set out his plan for the country. He thinks there's a messive contradiction is Andy Burnham's plan for the country. Is it continuity? Is it stararism with a smile and a Paul Smith t shirt and a woollyback accent Oh. Is it endnding forty years neoliberalism and ripping up the Thatched settlement. right? It can't be both. And they think they can draw those out over the course of a leadership election. And speaking to people in the week, they are probably gearing up for a leadership election. They're thinking about who is going to staff that campaign. stuff like that He is serious. He can't I opened my column last week with he can't be serious can he? but he is. What's your take on it then Laura? Yeah, I think that is exactly where they are. It sounds like he's conceded privately to friends and allies that there will be a leadership question at some point that he's not going to bury his head in the sands and pretend that that is not a dynamic and is not something that a large number of people are calling for. But the kind of casees essentially that Andy isn't ready. And I think some of his allies in a way that I think does appear to be slightly facetious to those of us on the outside, I think they genuinely sort of believe it they think, o it's generous to give Andy a bit more time to set out what exactly it is that he will want to do. And you think, I don't actually think that's generous. I think that's just an attempt to possibly buy for some time. And obviously the belief is, as Patrick Hit just articulated, that actually he will buckle under the weight of that scrutiny and a kind of closer look at exactly what it is that he would do in power. but it does sound like he's very serious. and it they feel that there are these pitfalls for Andy Bernon, which to Andy Bernam's team, I think is just patently ridiculous. Well Let's talk then about how realistic that is. Let's put that to the test. and I want to just rewind slightly to the events of last week, which were Totally mad on one level. So John Haley obviously resigned Number ten was blindsided by that. and my colleague Oliverright did a fantastic read on it at the weekend And the reason they weren't quite expecting him to go over the top is because they were much more worried about two other people They were worried about Rachel Reeves, who was furious about this kind of extra spending on defense. She felt the whole issue was settled. They thought genuinely the Chancellor could quit. and they were particularly worried about Ed Milliband. Now, Ed Milliband was being asked to find cuts to net zero budgets. and was resisting the cuts And he was resisting them. And he was deeply unhappy. And in the end he swallowed The one percent cuts like everyone else, but that was where Stalmer's attention was. So John Healley, they never thought he'd go over the top. They didn't think he'd do. He was a loyalist. But this is Patrick where we come to your delicious scoop, please on Ed Milliband. It's very juvenile, but please. Well, Ed Miliband has taken, you he's got a timeshare arrangement in every single labor MP's head and that you know, he spends most of the year inside Kiss armors at the moment. Kistom was trying to get in touch with their middle band last week and I was told just couldn't get through to him. Ed Milibam was gosting the prime minister. the prim Minister calling, Ed Milibam. By all accounts, Ed Milibam was not picking up the Prime Misters. Look, maybe he was busy. you know, he's got a department to run, but that shows you how much the relationship the extent to which that defining relationship, really close relationship, Edd Milliband stayed in the cabinet and the shhadow Cabinet for much longer than some of Kir Starmer's closest advisors would liked him to. Long the Morgganweenen he would liked him to because he and Keir Stahmer had a bond that predated Kirahmer's time in politics. Kir Starmer felt he owed a lot to Ed, and he thought to a certain extent They were friends. I'm not entirely sure that was ever reciprocated properly by a milliband But there we go. And here we are now. And Ed Milliban, by the way is is the crucial person in all of this in hell. notot only how this weekend will unfold after Andy Bern and Windsy Makerfield, but how the government and Labour's chance of the next election. but we'll get onto that. a little bit later I speaking to a minister last night, M minister gotone touch me last night at the B blue, not someone I speak to very often and They were saying We all know Ed Miliban is going to resign at some point. You know, Andy Bon needs to do something more than get Ed Milliban to resign As you and I wrote on the night of the local elections after the polls closed the local elections, Steve A mdle band sold his shares in Kistammer a long He was first to go over the top. He was the first to go over the top. He went and told the Prime Minister, you know make Come on, you need to set out a timetable. you should think about setting out a timetable. K on basase his head clear off. and everything that's happened since, I think we can probably trace back to that conversation So look, we should then talk about where Andy Burnham is. So I went to see Andy Burnham. I went to the the working Men' ptyation bothoth of you have short cross. and I met the most importantly I met Milo, who is Lou Hag's dog Wh Laura was very taken with when you went up the other week. I've actually not met Milo. I you have the great off writing about Milo. He's lovely. He's a great dog. He's Moran M Sweeney of the Andy Burnham proroject. The mysterious Sangali briefed about constantly, but seldom seen. Well, he's there, he's a great dog, but also I met Andy Burnham. and it's important to understand how Andy Burnham sees the Makfield Blect So he sees this as a mandate for number ten. The words he used was he says, it is a cry for change from the people of Makerfield and the people of the nation more broadly. And he kept describing it as the first stage of changing the Labour Party. Well, I'm pretty sure I can guess what the second change is. You changeed the Prime Minister in the process. He said that Makerfield is effectively a mega focus group And then he described as there are hundreds of makefield out there. So he is clearly making the political logic is if I win this, I have won the right to kind of enter number ten. Now there's an assumption When you talk to people around Berham of the political inevitability, that if he wins this by significant enough margin He will be prime Minister and so Kistan will have no choice but to back down. But as we've discussed, that is not necessarily a given and the animus between the two men, because They really don't like They didn't like each other before, right? And we've talked before on this show about how Starmer famously went to get Burnhams support when he was running for Labour leadeer and Burnham wouldn't give it. and they' bad blood between them over many years, but it's really bad blood now. So this assumption that surely Starm will have to give way. He can't even govern his own cabinetage, surely That is they are possibly an overestimate. and that means someone's going to need to pull the trigger. That means someone's going to need to move and it could get very bloody and very ugly very quickly Well indeed, and Obviously Oy Berham isn't at four AM on Friday going to launch a challenge to Kirst Starmor But I think there are people around Kama who would dearly wanting to because Everybody needs a pretext to do what they want to do this. Andy Burnham needs a pretext. Andy Burnham needs a challenge someone else or cabinet resignations or you know two hundred members of the Parliamentary Labour Party coming out and saying, it's over for Kir Starmer, send for Andy. you know when Andy gets in on on Monday, let's make him Prime Minister. Kirst Starma needs a provocation from Andy Burnham so he can make his case and declare he's going to He's going to fight and fight on to win It was put to me by one Ive Kirst Ama though, the best thing Kirstarma could do, the most confounding thing Kiss Ama could do on Friday He's nothing Cursory, Tirst, congratulations, Tiny Boer, then do and say nothing becausecause at that point the Parliamage Labour Party will be frothing at the mouth some of Any Burnner's more excitable supporters, and I say supporters not the people who are with him in Stubsha Cross Labor Club every day will be baying for blood. you know For all I have lots of pages to fill and lots of copy to write. You know there will be a market for Furious allies of Andy Burnham saying X,Y, ed or allies of the Prime Minister saying, he's bottled it. I can see my WhatsApp web page now and I can see the four or five people who will be peppering me with messages. if we've got silence from both sides on Friday saying, whereere is Andy? Andy's bottled it, right? Everybody wants a provocation. Everybody needs a provocation. But if King Thommer says and does nothing and his allies are disciplined and say Nothing. It' quite confounding Frny Burnnam at that point becausecause like, what you do what do you do, I say? It's like, you know, do launch challenge, do you not launch challenge? It's sort becomes a sort of phony war stage until he gets down here on Monday Which brings us to scoop number two from Lara which is the question of pressure. So pressure will take two forms. They are actively getting that list of eighty one MPs together. But like you say, we could end up with a couple of hundred MP's coming out and calling for stamoscope. That is one form of pressure The second form is from the cabinet, Laura, and you've got some gear for us on that this week. Yeah, I mean, I think what Patrick says is really important, which is there is obviously a clear distinction between the people who are advising Andy Berham and the people in Westminster who will want there to be a much quicker momentum. I mean,, I'm told Andy wants to get to London, he wants to meet some of the newer intake. This is not a case of like immediately trying to move. But that said, I think if it got to I mean, it's been put to me, got if it was Starmer saying, o, know we might be able to have that conversation at Cfereort, that is way too long. That is way too long. I mean this is not a long time frame that they're looking at, but it is also as Patrick says, not an absolutely immediate one. But they have these different tools at their disposal, one of which I'm told, is a number of people in the cabinet who are willing to call for Ki Starmer to go and to move against him Some obvious and some not. Now you'd probably surmise that the obvious would include somebody like Ed Milliband, but clearly there will be other people that have agreed to act on behalf to speed this up if it is necessary. And of course there's a hope that Kist Amor of his own volition, says, know I'm going to make this transition slightly easier. But we know that that's not where Kis Ammer's head is at all at the moment. And so they are having to look at theseese various different options. I think I mean the key thing, when I talk those stress to me is they want Kstarma, they say, to leave with some dignity. I mean, I think that's not necessarily a selfish position. I think as we know from looking at the polling, Labour members, the wider Labour Coalition probably would feel more favorable towards Andy Berham, were it possible for them to engineer a situation where it was not like dragging Kirst Stara out of number ten in a really kind of horribly humiliating way for him at the same time, you know, they will say, lookook, K Kisama's Pmership is dead. like it's been dead for a number of times. It died again last week when John Heley resigned and there is a fundamental inability to recognize that. And that's why I think it could get a tiny bit messy. But there is some self interest, right? Clearly Burnham has an interest in a bloodless coup. The last thing he wants from I gathather is a long summer with a long leadership contest. West Streeting's battle of ideas. No, exactly. I battle of ideas whereest Streeting is not going be involved, by the way. I think we should just put that on the record. West Streeting is not going to be candidate certainly a successully nominated candidate in a labour leadership election, right And sorry, wise for saying that so bluntly, but is true lotots of Wes's allies including you know, the sort of close peopleople who are close to him who quit woken up and smell the coffee, right? A L lot of these people are now thinking, how do we how do we get behind Andy Burnet? How do I ensure I'm not completely unemployable when Annalie's Midley Chiefit or political secretary is looking down the long list of the twenty twenty four intake in a month's time in two months time thinking, oh God, who's going to be PPS to the Minister for flooding? You know not going to be whereest Street's batt of ideas. It's going to be to use a slightly tasteless comparison someone made to me last week's going to be like the Waco siege, right? It's going to be like hold up in number ten with a massive stockpile of You know, bombs and bullets and sort of just daring the forces around him to come and get him out and the whole Labour partarty is going to die in the process. So the question is, does Burnham have the political courage to pull the trigger? There was one theory that someone put to me or the suggestion which isn't true, but I'll run you through it anyway because the reasons it's not true are interesting. The suggestion was Wes was going to go up to Makeerfield this week, which he has done. He has seen Burnham and that they were going to cut a deal And the deal would be that he would go over the top, he would take the numbers and trigger leadership contest. because people don't like being the first mover, right? So he would do that, and then he would get rewarded, let's say with the job of foreign Secretary. That was the suggestion. Obviously talk to a lot of people around that. That is our job. And it was roundly rejected. And I think that's right by the way, because actually When you look at this speech that Web Streeting has given in the city today, it is a demolition, a lot of it of Andy Burnham's economic vision He says it wasn't forty years of neoliberalism that was a problem. We should not be squeamish about the markets. He says bond markets are not the bond villains. So it's a repudiation of a lot of what Burnham stands for. So whether he has the numbers to get there as you say, Patrick, it may be impossible for him to join the contest But either way Everyone seems to be allergic to actually making the move other than possibly Ed Milliban. Well, totally. And as Andy Burnham said on Quion time was like I believe I'm not going do as a fellow wool out of respect for please do it. No, no, no, don't worry. When I didn't impress him Ed Millibaban, Ed Milliliban Spouts complained so I'm not going I'm not going to get off the very good a fe with a fellow Wool in Andy Burnham He said, West Streeting has launched leadership contest, so I'm going to join it, right? You know, it's harder. And it's a bigger provocation to Kissed Armour to arrive. because that's that's what, you know, if your Mor Mc Sweene on the other end of bl it to Kissed Armour, you are saying You know, when Andy says he's going to challenge ' the he's the script, right? You know, you don't have a mandate. It's really you know, I've got I'm meant to be going to theAT sumit in a forortnight's time etera et. cris Yeah, yeah, exactly Yeah But at the same time go and then then going long It's Mcauburism, right? You know, you're number ten waiting for something awful to turn up. You're waiting for the Manchter bar election or you're waiting for don't know, Trump to break the ceasefire or something. So then you can go back on whatever deal you've made over an orderly transition Let's head to the interval. and when we come back from the interval, we are going to talk about one of the key men, obviously, Ed Milliband And what will happen to him? willill he be the next chancellor Every morning throughout the World Cup, the game, football podcast from the Times and Sunday Times will bring you your essential daily briefing. We'll hear from our reporters inside the England and Scotland camps bringing you the big news first. We've got reporters covering the best of the rest and following all the biggest stories. From FIFA banning water to Donald Trump coming on as a sub against Paraguay Okay, maybe not the last bit, but who knows? So join the game for the biggest show on earth. Find the game wherever you get your podcasts. While every other channel is fighting for your customers' attention, podcasts are where they've already given it. 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There is something of an emerging split in the Andy Burn firnment between Ed Milliband and perhaps Miata Van Buller, former minister who recently resigned on one side and the kind of wider soft left on the other side The possibility of Ed Miliband as a Chancellor, I think is quite a good encapsulation of the reasons for that particular divide. And I was picking out quite a lot of unhappiness about that prospect at the weekend, which given many people who have been speaking about an Ed Miliband Chancellorship as if it was a done deal, I thought was really striking. There are a couple of reasons why there are some real concerns there. is a real sense and suspicion that they feel that Miliband has been telling others that he's in line for the job, that that's a done deal. They worry that there's been too much personality in this already, and I think that's something that has grated some of them up the wrong way And the second more interesting point I think is actually on positions of policy, particularly in net zero, where a number of them think actually Andy needs to be in a position where he has some flexibility on this, that he can look at these things abstractly without any ideology and say actually, I think, for example, yeah, we will need to grant new licensces in the North Sea. pererhaps let's see. He says he's open to that This is something that some around him think he is open to and that he needs the latitude to be able to be open to. And part of this is not because I think it's really key to say that it's not that we know that Ed Milliband is absolutely firmly, completely forever against more drilling, quote unquote, but he is against new licenses, right? And I think one of the key things here is not that there's necessarily this massive policy divergence there. It's a sense among some around Berham that actually What you need is to be able to make these decisions without all the newspapers writing, your chanceces on resignation watchatch. And there being this whole pycho drama of saying, whereere is Ed on this? Where is Andy on this? Is there a split? Who are the Ed supporters who think that actually this is a disaster and it's going back on all of the things that we've done on Net Zero. And you cannot have that. And actually a separate part of that, as somebody suggested was interesting, was saying, look at the Scottish Labour MPs, among whom And he has not made as fantastic as In Rodesen as he has some other coalitions, saying this would be a really important overture to them who are traditionally more in favor of mooodves like this and could be a smart thing. There's some suspicion there, I think for that reason. and also separately I reported that actually senior advisers to Burnham have been lobbying hard, Shabana Mahud to take the position of Chancellor that she's wavering on this still. These conversations resumed in a big way because of what happened with John Healley and the whole Ferrari around defence spending and the fact that this was clearly an indication of the really tough fiscal conversations that are ahead. Shabana still wants to stay at home, but I think is being worked on quite significantly, I think it's fair to say You get to the nub of the entire issue for een Burnham here in terms of notot just the sort of government they form, but how smooth their path is, right? They're linked. A lot will depend on Um, the sort of government labour MPs think they are putting in office without without a contest, right? So a minister got in touch with me last night and they made this exact point. after saying I'm becoming more convinced that Bossman, by which they mean Kiss Ama, not the proprietor of a local corner shop, might try and tough it out and actually take it to a contest. And if Andy doesn't actually have a clear pitch early next week, then he can't actually press the button as too many MP's will be worried about what direction you're go in. Some saying they want Andy, but don't want Shabara in N number Evven. Others saying they want Andy, but don't want Ed in number eleven, etceter. Right? So you know if you're not moving Siman and Mood out at the home offffice, that sends a signal to PLP. if she's in number eleven that sends another signal. If Abiliband is anywhere near number eleven, that sends another signal, rightight? So Very quickly you're making trade offs in terms of personnel, that could alienate people and could make people have another looker KS arma. Yeah. I mean I think it's really like Shabana is key here in a way that people don't fully understand, I think. I mean, I'm told there's no kind of big whiteboard that they're working off in terms of cabinet positions. But I think, you know, I was talking to somebody earlier and some like, well, you know if there is a big suspion about Emilibaband, but Shana Mamou doesn't want to take it happens then And there are a number of names in the hat of which perhaps John Heilly' one, which is quite interesting. That's interesting. But it's not the case that there's this kind of absolutely firm settled view and they know what's going to happen. Another name by the way We haven't spoken about who could be very important. Come Friday, come the weekend, comeome next week is Evette Cooper who hasort kept her head down has obviously expressed her reservations about Kst Amour to Kst arma has been very busy with the Urndal She was named by the mininister whoses text I was quoting to you there as someone who not could resign as in, they think she's going to resign, but that's the sort of person swinging behind Andy Burnham that will matter to your median labour MP who wants to be on the winning side, knows K Star as a dud, but isn't entirely sure about the intended consequences. So V Cooper, a former Treasy mininister knows Andy Burnham well possibly be I know that outside pick for chancellor or you know, H would have a strong case for be Chancellor if Shabana Mu doesn't want it. although she does have a reputation for being an indeis among colleagues and as As one minister joked to me when I asked them about the prospect of E being Chancellor, they said, well In that case, the next budget will be in twenty thirty five. So there you go. Cruel joke about that cper. I merely pass it on I want to throw one other name into the discussion, mostly so that Laura Spirit can aggressively shoot me down, which I'm looking forward to. Rachel Reeves thinks she could still be Chancellor. This is true. This is her view is that one, she has the trust of the market and two, she's going to be prepared to go there on net zero and make cuts that Ed Milliband couldn't. And three, she said when you look round You have a conversation like the one we've had, it's not exactly clear. so why not stick with what you've got? Now Lara, please that. So I don't think that's going to happen. That's not where the heads are, I think in Burn. You put that in Berhamsircle? Yes. I mean, look, I think last week was quite an important instructive moment for this because they're particularly unhappy with the briefing about John Healley. Do remember there was a treasury official that said, Let's clear what John is asking for here cut to schools and hospitals. One of the key things that is in their minds when they're looking at this decision about Chancellor is the flexibility that any pIC is going to give them with regards to the decision they make next. And one thing that we know about Rachel Reeves in the last week fortnight is that flexibility is not something that those who have had to be working with her over the Defense invvestment plan would necessarily say that she has had. And I genuinely don't mean that as a criticism, but do I'm saying that that's something that will be playing in the minds of those around Burnham and it is simply not where they are right now. One of the things I just wanted to mention, we do need to mention, this conversation is obviously predicated on Andy Burnham winning in Makefield, right? And it's important to stress this because The reason we are talking to you like this is because Restore is a factor, and also we are having conversations with people in reform who think they're probably not going to win it But there is a world in which reform do win this. And then all of this conversation different we will still likely end up in a very violent and difficult leadership contest. I think it could be far wilder than what comes next if Burnham does win it because there's no clear account it' be horrific. It' be K St onn vers Landera versus Edmilaband versus W Streeting and know Al Carnes trying to count to five at the end of it, right? That's the difficulty. And by the way, I'm glad that's the first and only mention of Al Carnes and his leadership bid on this podcast forever What I would say about that prospect, Steve, we had a poll from M in Common Cstituency poll from More in Common in Satday's paper of Make and feel and The two stats that stood out and you have one as well, Laura, we both had restore keeping their deposits. What more in common have found in our poll Yeah, okay, Andy Berham ' five points ahead, restore win eight percent the vote, a split vote on the right hands it tiny bit. Just as significant was that thirteen percent of Makerfield voters were still undecided bothoth campign, particularly Any Burnham, who for the p couple of weeks has been trying to squeeze those undescided down, but every day going to knock on their doors personally Reformers saying as well, we are focusing big time on undecided. Then I was in Makerfield on Saturday and Sunday. watching restore Campasses Of whom there were loads by the way. they had a thousand people there over the weekend. Everywhere you drove, Abram, Orrel, Billing, Hindley. I that's not that bit in the office,, Winersh You know, they were everywhere and they were paying particularly close attention to reform houses these restore Casses But yet, that thirteen percent undecided be very, very significant. Are they breaking for a store Are they breaking for reform Will they get into the ballot box and actually think screw Andy Burnham or will they be swept up in