Government paralysis during the transition

How is Andy Burnher spending these days? He is trying to meet every Labour MP just about and every minister. He's ha one on ones Port Color's house just over there in his office in a witch office that's been given to him for this period of time. And when he's sitting there, some of them are just very direct about the jobs they want and why they'd be really good in those jobs It's kind of like a what have you got for me thing? And he's quite taken aback by that Welcome to the State of it, the Pitcical podcast from the Times and the Sunday Times. I'm Steven Swinford, the Priticalge of the Times and I'matrick McGuire, Chap'al commentator for the Times. This week we want to talk to you about two things. The first thing we'd like to talk to you about is the kind of weird state of paranoia in the cabinet because essentially no one knows what's going on Everything is happening in a black box in Andy Burnham's head and that is creating some pretty paranoid and febile behaviour out there in cabinet among the broader Parliamentary partarty Well, yeah, indeed, it is Steve. and I'd say Paranoa is never far from the surface. I mean, I've lost count of the number of conversations I've had this week but start off A like Morgan Mcsweeney, who's been out and about breaking his silence and talking his own voice to the media for the first time. today at least at least on the record He has said You know, he feels optimistic about Andy Burnham. If you speak to any minister, any MP, any special advisor, that's tell you the same. I feelm optimistic. I want Andy Burnham to survive, but it doesn't take long. you scratch the surface of those conversations for reservations. Come and fast. And as you say, I think paranoia is one wor of putting it, nervousness is another and there's not a little resentment because people feel that they might end up hanging from lampposts as collaborators with with the hated with the hated former totalitarian starmer regime and Something that's struck me throughout All of the conversations I've been having really is two things The first is that Andy Burdam's talk of the North and Manchester and all of that stuff I've written about this in my column tomorrow generenal atmosphere of fear and loathing and nervousness You know, that is making MPs in the southeast and London a little bit nervous. They're thinking, does Andy Burnham have broad appeers? And there's a lot of them. the numberers There are ninety plus MPs in London and the southeast alone. Yeah. Eactly, exactly. So that is one reservation. I mean, on the other hand, I reveal in my column, the University and Colleges Union goodood window into progressive. Urban voters, you know, says forty four percent of the many members among them who want to vote green are much more like to vote for Andy Burnham under Labour. So maybe that's a message they can They'll stop moding once they realize Any Burnam is squeezing the progressive vot But the other thing is this question of ministerial appointments Literally as we were setting up this podcast, I got a message from someone This is happening a lot. It'll be happening to you in your conversations as well. Every conversation we are having with ministers now turns into basically a pitch as to why we should think Andy Bernam would be mad to sack them or move them. and I've got this from a cabinet sauce just now. talking about how Andy Burnham needs institutional memory and telling me, you can tell this is good coms. They pitched it directly for me. There are some interesting historical parallels. Thank you very much. I like those. James Callahghan kept Healley as Chancellor and Edmund Dell as trade mininister from Wilson's cabinet at a time when the economy and balance of payments were politically sadient John Major kept Douglas heard his foreign secretary from Thatcher's cabinet at a time when Europe had become increasingly important to the Tory party, you know, that is that goes to sh that's the sort of language we'rearing from people, the sort of argument we're hearing from people. The other thing we should note is What may become Mandy Burnham's woman problem? We spoke about this on a podcast earlier this week when at Laura gave us that quote about more millibands in the Great Office of ate than women. And this Women in the PLP have long memories And for this for some of them, H know, lots of long serving female labour MPs and labour peers etcet. This is bring back memories of Gordon Browns two thousand sevenenty appoints, the youngest cabinet in history. There were seven of them who were under the age of forty two. That's why so many of them are still in contention to come in Andy Berham's cabinet There's a sense of it, sir a reunion of that class of two thousand seven, right? You've got Andy Bernon, James Panneell running his number ten Ed Milivan, mayaybe David Millivan's coming back But if that is the sort of, if that's the look, You'll have lots of people who remember Well hang on what else happening in Gordon Brown's cabinet? that Cooper didn't full cabinet rank until two thousand eight, despite being one of his people. Harriet Harman was made deputy Prime Minister. Ruth Kelly was demoted, Margaret Becket was unceremoniously demoted From the Foreign Office is one of Gordon Browns's first acts Hazel Blers and Jackie Smith felt that they were made to carry the Cademe scapegoats for the expenses scandal. And that all culminates in Caroline Flint in two thousand nine talking about a two tier cabinet. where women are mere window dressing and As much as Annie Billham is talking about culture change, we should say obviously all the leading light of his battroom team are women. Andy Burnham has spoken about his fear of crossing those very formidable women Yeah there are a lot of women in the PLP who will be paying very close attention, even if it's the most female cabinet in history. to where those women are and which women have lost out. So those are the things people are worrying about given Writing my comment about to something I call Burnham Magnanimity syndrome Everybody's caught it, even Morgan McSweeney, everyveryone wants to be nice and magnanimous to Andy Burnham in public But it's not going to take long for people to be cured of that if they're looking at some decisions he's made. They're full of doubts and nervous already And there are going to be a lot of losers on this government. It's not going to take much for them to to kick off. you know, this is a PLP that is quite happy to to run and rave and M look that is obviously true. and part of it is because at this point, Andy Burnham is at his most powerful. He has made no cabinet appointments. so all of the cards are his and no one knows what the cards are And I'll give you an idea of what that feels like. I got a briefing from some people around Ed Milliband. Now lots of people are writing that Ed Milliband will be Chancellor, that he is the front rununner. All the signs do point in that direction. But the fact is that Ed doesn't know He really genuinely doesn't know and some people around him start started raising concerns Do you think Lu Hage He's going to be chfred. Is there anything to read in that? And I said, Well all of the signals that I'm getting is what we've been getting is that she's being talked about for Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. so a different type of chancellor. Yeahes, she would be a Chancellor. Yeah. but That just speaks to the kind of paroia out there that even Ed Milliliband does not appear to know his destiny at this point of time. And we are in the midst of summer party season here in Westminster and it's notable How few Labour cabinet ministers are at some of these events. I think because they're obviously trying to just focus on trying to get get their jobs and keep their jobs, right? It's weird. normally they're flooded at these events and we're not seeing that many of them. Yeah. And even what they are announcing, right what they are spending their last two weeks in custody of their departmental press offices to release, you can tell there's a through live through every mininister's announcement now You can tell The communications to people thinking how do we make this sound really burn and friendly? How do we make this sound like it's a bit of his agenda you can just pick up and room with. present to him on a on a silver platter. And by the way, we should say He could do worse in some places. The devolution agenda the governments doing is already quite radical. The stuff Defer are doing about the water bill reggardless who's the ministers in these depliaments the water bill doesn't need to be tweaked that much to resemble public control as Berham talks about it. But yeah, there is a definite attempt for people to make very public claims, however subtly they think they're doing to keeping keeping their jobs and some of them would have a quite a good claim to actually. but Yeah as we've been saying. into governness to choose and Andy Burnham has a lot of very crunchy choices to make that will end up in some people experiencing humiliation and crushing appintment. So So no pressure. but you know we've spoken about Ed Miliban. I think the David Miliban question is massive which we did earlier this week right linked to foreign Secretary. Yeah, exactly. Linked to foreign seecretary But there are two questions that flow from that. Okay you don't make foreign secretary Why'd you put it Is it something domestic? Willould he take it? Yeah, exactly. Would he take a mid ranking domestic cabinet job? I mean, there is a question of what would be the point? I mean, this guy has been running the International Rescue Committee for For a decade, would he want to do it And also how would your upwardly mobile ambitious minister of state or cabinet minister who'd been moved somewhere else and fancyed a domestic brief or maybe you have been sat from cabinet altogher, How would they feel, saying, Well, hang on, there are loads of labour MPs there are more than four hundred of us and they're more, you know, there are about a hundred ministers and you've picked that guy to realal Iad know do the Department of Trport or whatever. I'm sure that's all beneath beneath Lord Millibanders will soon be calling him, but there we go And the other question is, okay, if he's not foreign Scretary, but you put in something foreign facing I know we' both had conversations, Steve with cabinet sources this week who've been lookingoo at David Milliband's name looking at Okay, maybe you won't get foreign Secretary There is a development minister in the cabinet. Yeah. You know, does does Andy Burnham give David Milliband That job, but at the same time, that budget has been cut repeatedly. to fund defence and much else. But we know a lot of Mandy Burn of soft left backers, the people who've been with him from you know day one of this return mission, that's one of their big ass. likeike let's know, let's start spending more money on development. So lots of big decisions on the personnel and the policy that as I write in my column, you know for all the mood of goodwill that is pervading the Labour Party at the surface, It won't take much for You know, this one day this period one day soon, this period of maximum leverage and maximum sick fancy will be over and people will You know they'll be losers from the choices Andy Berer makes. On that point you makeaking on David Milliband, what's really interesting is that people are using his work on aid and his interest in foreign aid against him. They are pointing out we are in a different era now. This isn't the era we're cutting foreign aid Pject. Can you really have a foreign secretary who is such a proud outward proponent of increasing foreign aid in this job. and they're saying therefore he is unsuitable as a result of that nudge nudge wink wink. and so it goes on and that's the kind of level of These quite caaustic briefings that we're on the end of this week. And again, it all feeds back to the fact that no one knows what's going on. And look, some people are being really overt about it. Ana Ryna did a press conference last night in which she was basically saying that it was a kind of love letter to Andy Berher, but it was yourour agenda is my agenda and my agenda is your agenda And the suggestions are she wants her old job back in the Ministry of Housing Communities and local government. But it's a very overt pitch and that spoke to something really interesting with Anna Rain actually. and we're going to get more into this in the weekend because not so long ago she was being talked up as a potential successor to Kistara And then when the move and everyone went to Andy Burnham, she wasn't there with it. And now she finds herself as someone who on paper is an archetype of a Berham minister. She you is a good friend with him. She was pictured at his house not so long ago. Their policy agendas are remarkably similar on paper. She should be in the Burnham cabinet. But actually there is an argument that some make that she missed the moment. She didn't go down on bended knee and provide the support when others did Thereise Hagigue, And' Midy and others. and as a result, she's in a weaker position. Now I'm sure she'll probably end up with a very good covenant job, but she doesn't know either. know just getting. And also the mere fact that her moment never came is a reflection of, okay, you mentioned two of them there to that list Air Miliban. The people that made this happen for Andy Burnham, the people that made that return happen for Andy Burnham are all Fans of Angeorain on a personal level, they like her, they know her well, they've worked with her closely If those people we've mentioned wanted Angela Ryna or thought Angela Ryna was the candidate, it would have happened It didn't happen that many number of reasons, right Those people chose to wait and make Andy Burnham Pime minister instead, which I think tells you something about why Angelareyna is not as intimately involved in this conversation or as prominent in this conversation as you know, we may have unthinking the issume. you know, as you say, two great mananster MPs on the record is like each other complementary of each other broadly, you know, closer to each other than they were to certainly Kir Star as number ten But I tellouch that sort of to the personalities, I think tells you why we are where we are with Angela Rayna. And one other thing we need to talk about is how Andy Burnham sees all of this. So all the readouts I'm getting He's actually quite affronted by how transactional. So he how is Andy Bher spending his days? He's trying to meet every Labor MP just about and every minister. He'sving one ones in Port Cullers house just over there in his office in a Wit office that's been given to him for this period of time. And when he's sitting there, some of them are just very direct about the jobs they want and why they'd be really good in those jobs It's kind of like a what have you got for me thing? And he's quite taken aback by that. You know, it shouldn't surprise him. He is a child of Westminster. He was well versed in it, but it is nonetheless quite a front to him and you've got a hint of it. in the speech earlier this week when he talks about you know, all this speculation about who's going to be to us. Well, people are speculating because Everyone's talking about it and it matters. It's such an important thing. but he clearly doesn't like that side of it as much as he is the arbiter of all the power at same time. Well, yeah, you know and when he spoke in his speech in Banchester, which I was at on Monday, he spoke of Westminster feeling you know, more fractured, more unhappy. and you know You can't You can't ever think he was probably thinking of some of the meetings had with just a desper the sheer desperation of MPs. I compaare some of them in my column to sort of, you know ambulance chasing personal injury lawyers, also banging on Anny Burdam's car door saying, you know, I can leave you to more riches in the department for paper cllips if you, you know sign the dotted line sign the dotted line with me. And from every one of these meetings where Andy Burnham is seeing groups of MPs You know, you get I certainly have, you know at least one of them coming out and saying, you won't believe who just disgraced themself. you know too preserve the integrity of all of my sources, I'll boulderize this story slightly, but Now someone told me he was in a meeting early this week at which a minister gave him a gloopy obsequious welcome bas heically saying if there's anything I can do, et cetera, etcetera. you know, it's so great. Let me formally welcome you. And I haven't escaped the notice of this minister's colleagues a glutter of briefings had appeared in the press suggesting that they might be in line for a cabinet job. So it's It's certainly making the Parliamentary Labour Party fraction unhappy because they're all looking at each other thinking, well, you're disgracing yourself, you're embarrassing yourself. I certainly wouldn't behave like that. But there's also this this mental undertone in all of their heads of Should I be doing that? You know, I had lunch with someone earlily in the week he was saying, I don't want to do this. I don't want to pitch myself shamelessly to Andy, but I'm going to have to because everybody else's and then you're having people pitching policy ideas and realizing, you know, I'm not going to meet Andy, I'm going to meet one of his one of his you know, Praetorian garden, the prim Parliamentary Labour Party, which is a disappointing people. And this will be an important thing, right? Because the This sort of lobbying, etceter won't stop. This desperation won't stop once Samy Burnham has appointed as government. But what Kar Starmer never had Until quite later on until sort of he appointed Amy Richard as his political secretary and they sort of belatedly got the importance of treating the Parliamentary Labour Party like They were human beings. You know, he is going to need, I've had this from several ministers, you know, an influential about benches, you know as long as there is some sort of structure where MPs can feel like they're heard as long as they know who to speak to as long as they feel like they're listened to, and frankly, in some cases, that will involve member of the number ten team or a minister sitting and foring their brand merely pretending to listen you know, that could that can go a long way as will, you know, decisive leadership and u personable style. So It's not intractable, friendly burnden, but it will be difficult And look, the last thing we wanted to give you a favor of is how weird it is to report on this period. becausecause essentially we're in the middle of two things, a long goodbye and a long hello. So you've got Kir Amer doing a sequence of barbecues where he's seeing MPs and saying goodbyes to all his loyal aides. There seems to be quite three or four of these.' qu unusually intensity. And at the same time, you've got Andy Bh taking his time to point his cabinet He's doing an interview this evening on one of the radio stations and that's going to suck an enormous amount of auction because people are desperate to hear everything got you's got to say. And what that means is you end up in a state of paralysis in government. it is paralysis. I'm going to give you two things. I promised I wouldn't talk about the defefence investment plan, but I'm going to. Kstarmer announced this defense investment plan with fifteen billion pounds of funding, but then it unraveled within minutes when a table was published in one of the annexes in the small prrim, which revealed that four point seven billion do of that is to be found at the next budget. Andy Burnham's budget. So that's a black hole immediately in the plans. Andy Burnham's going to have to find that money And then ten point three billion of that is from largely as yet unidentified cuts across government, cuts to hospitals, cuts to schools. We don't know. And it's all going to be Andy Burnham's decision to make. and we don't know where that's going to be made. So that is one form of prioris. You've had a kind of symbolic commitment to increasing defence funding any of the actual meat on the bone of where that money is going to be coming from. It's almost built on sand the whole thing. It's not a great place to be in And the other one is the Rale Greing gangs and Everybody currently is looking to a know tweet from Andy Burnham in which she says this guy should be deported, but nothing should be off the table. But is that Andy Burnham saying I'm going to reopen theCHR? orr is that Andy Burnham just? don't know, Iang out a press release.ike, we don't know. Wh's actacting that? Because this is a now problem. This guy is on the streets now, presumably people in government are looking at it Everyone's looking for find Andny Bennf, what would you do about that? Yeah exactly. And in that tweet he said, I'll be asking the homeome Secretary and the foreign Secretary. do this you mean now? Do you mean you're going to ask as a local MP or is that you know, is it the foreign and homeome Secretary you appoint on the twentieth of July? like David Miller questions. Yeah, exactly. Who knows? And that's the point for everything is kind of very uncertain. and it means that the news agenda is unpredictably well. So I mean, look, normally when there's a big story, we would go directly to the departments relevant to ask them what they think about it, where things are. A the moment, there is a single point of power and that is Andy Burnham and whatever is inside his head. And there are very few people that know the answer to that question. Yeah, indeed. I think we can say safey say it's probably no more than five. Yeah. Okay. well look, until next week, thank you again for listening. Patrick, can you do the honourors with the bigig Rd button? Yeah, thank you very much as ever to our suupervative producers, Molly Guinness, Ewan Daughtry and Harry Kitsen for making your sound sound presentable and look even betterou