The Future of Keir Starmer

Every morning throughout the World Cup, the game, football podcast from the Times and Sunday Times will bring you your essential daily briefing We'll hear from our reporters inside the England and Scotland camps bringing you the big news first. We've got reporters covering the best of the rest and following all the biggest stories. From FIFA banning water to Donald Trump coming on as a sub against Paraguay. Okay, maybe not the last bit, but who knows? So join the game for the biggest show on eararth. Find the game wherever you get your podcasts Please. I love the people. this. place vet every single one of them Are we confident that are qualified plumber, ex Army reservist, family man, and all around good bloke. he's the right man I think Bero is the right man for the job. The big thing about him he's honest. That was all we known as growing up, we had to work labour, but now it's completely changed. Hello and welcome to this week's episode of The State of It. I'm Laara Spirit, the deputy political ditor of the Sunday Times. I'm Paty McGuire ap commentator for the Times. Before we get on to the reason why Patrick is in his car, let me just say about what we're going to be discussing in the podcast today. We'll be talking about the Makerfield by election, that all important contest where Andy Berham, the greater Manchester mayayor is hoping to succeed and where Patrick and I have spent a little bit of time in recent days, and we'll also be talking about the chancellor, Rachel Reeves and what seems to be an attempt her to stay in her job regardless of what may come in the coming weeks and months in British politics. But Patrick, can we just start off? So you're in Hay.an you just explain to the listeners and those that might be watching envision why it is that you're in your car? Yes, so I I am at the Hay Literary Festival, where I appeared yesterday on a panel that was meant to include one, Andrew Muray Burnham, but he pull that was replaced by Jess Phillips I had a very interesting conversation with Jessphhilipzs and Ellie Chowns, the Green MP yesterday about Makerfield and many other things. And I came out of my accommodation just now to get a smart shirt and I managed to lock myself out of my accommodation. You wouldn't make a dog do what I'm doing right now, but I am working at one. so that's why that's why I'm here The length that you go to for the state of it. And we should acknowledge of course, the very conspicuous absence of the great man, Stephen at Swimford, who is not here with us this week, but will be back next week. Patrick, can you just say a bit about the Makerfield by election in recent days? For starters, we shouldn't say Makerfield because There is no such place. There is Ashley Makerfield, There's Hindley, there's Inst, there's Orl But Makerfield, noobbody says they live in Makerfield, right? So that is point one And what I was struck by on Friday and obviously goingo to Ashton on Friday, most of the people I saw on the High Street were actually or the lobby journalists. and Andy Bennerman just launched his campaign. So lots of labour people around everywhere. but speaking to labor people who'd been up that day. People speaking to through various degrees of frankness And we'll get onto this in a little bit in more detail They all said roughly the same three things. One, the Andy Burnernon factor is real, whether they were inclined to believe that Andy Burnnon was the guy before this happened when they've known Andy Bernon for a long time and they doubt him, whether they're massive Andy Bernon fans. Every labour person who is on the doors in Macerfield, indeed, reformed people too say the Andy Burnon factor is a real thing. He is doing so, so much better than a generic labour candate would. Second Everybody is saying is pretty solid reform territory, know, even with the addition of Andy Burnham They are doing better than they would in almost any other seat in the country as the twenty twenty four results proved. and we'll discuss this in more detail, but everybody is saying Restore Britain, Rupert Low's B breakway Party are a real thing. rememarkable consistency across all of the accounts, and that doesn't usually happen with a by election You know you go up and you get a sense of something and then everybody's trying to spin you. What's remarkable is basically everybody is saying exactly the same thing That was really interesting. I think So we did a focus group last week. I think it must have been on Tuesday evening where we joined a lot of these voters, but remotely, they were talking from this constituency about what they felt. And Restore Britain did keep coming up in a way that I found quite surprising. And I said to the G Luke Trill from M in Common, I asked him whether or not that was unusual. and it was unclear to us representative that might be actually of the seat on Tuesday evening. And then by the time I got there on Thursday, voters up and down the high street that you just mentioned but also elsewhere outside Sainsbury's and other places across the constituency bringing up Rusau Britain completely unprompted, I should say, by us, made me think actually there might be something there. So I think you've been speaking to some people in reform about how they might counter this particular threat from restore. But I think by the time we saw the first constituency poll on Saturday evening, which did say that Rustal Britain had, I think about seven percent in this current poll. I mean well above the margin that Andy Burnnon was leading by, just three points in that poll clearly marked out this party as something that would be a real threat to reform in the election. How do you think that they're thinking about this now? Yeah. They really have sort of electrify that race. What I would say about the Restore Britain thing. What is two foold. The first is that I think a lot of people until now thought this was basically just Rupert Lowe's ex account. His tweets are obviously amplified. Whoever's doing his tweets because I think brok consensus that someone who tweets So fluently in the language of a digital native And so often, it might not be a sixty nine year old man who wears his glasses on a string. And it's a look that really works for him. but you know Qite possly Ruper Le doesn't do all his own tweets. Maybe Rupert Loe iss gonna do a nasty tweet about me Whatever, right? But clearly he is a digital politician. But I think a lot of people thought this is just an X account, a high practive X account What he is actually cleared is that if you were to call Restore Britain anything, it's probably the Facebook partarty Rupert Low has more than a million followers on Facebook. He is pumping out anti immigration messaging all the time And you saw in our colleague, Damiian Whitworth h he went oope to the constituency. And what was striking is, you know, you're getting it in focus groups, your ST poll over the weekend, your Sundayimes poll over weekend by surervation had them at seven percent It's not just Rupert Low saying we're doing really well in Makerfield. It is Damiian Whitwth encountering random people in the street and community pubs Your focus group with a Lotrill the poll, right? They clearly exist and In the words of one person on the Labour campaign, they said they're everywhere And whether they mean, you know, they'rewhere in the discordse, their posters are everywhere et cetera, et cetera. That clearly that're clearly real and The social media aspect of this is fascinating because something that Nj Rarj said to me on a couple of occasions is Facebook is probably the most important social net media network in British politics And he has loads of followers on Facebook and Moxer could had changed the algorithm after Trump was reelected, and it meant that Nigel Farge was no longer penalised,? Right Leing politicians were no longer penalized and that was a great boon to reform boomers and people outside a lot of people outside of London of a certain age are still on Facebook right that is still the dominant social network And if Rupert Le is big on Facebook, then it might suggest that actually he's big in the real world Of course, it doesn't mean restore about to supplant reformers you know, the main party of the right in any way. And There are some people who varying views on this. You know, maybe seven percent in the ST poll is too high, maybe it's too low But clearly, If reform want to beat Andy Burnham in the words of onesource close Niger Faraja They need to squeeze that percent from the Sunday Tes poll And that's the only way they' be Andy Burnham. Yeah. And in conversations I've had with people in reform, there has been actually a real degree of confidence that they are going to be capable of squeezing that result. And I think the initial reaction to that poll, which was within minutes, I think Nigel Farge had posted it online to basically say a vote for Rupert Lowe is a vote for Andy Burnham, shows that they are going to, I really think Bang M drrum aggressively over the coming months. And I should also say In Makerville, I sat down in the constituency in the office with the reform candidate, Robert Kenyan for a proper sit down interview, we spoke about this question of restore because it had been coming up quite a lot. And to be honest, it had also been coming up in conversations with reform voters who were saying just proactively, I'm very worried about this. I would say just as often People saying, you know, I'm thinking about restore and I'm amenable to them was actually this kind of solid reform vote that was saying, No, no, I'm really aware of them and I'm really worried about the fact that they might split the vote on the right But when I put this to Robert Kenyan, he was quite clear that he felt that the restestore thing was a kind of online frenzy of kinds that it was not reflective of what had been happening on the doorstep. And actually in the local elections very recently, you a little over two weeks ago, when they had been canvassing out in the wards, he of course, is a reform councillor that actually restestore was not something that had come up on the doorstep at allol So clearly, they feel that this is something that has basically come out of nowhere, slightly, and it' be really interesting to see how they handle it. I think if we can just talk about the candidate at Kenyan for a second, there's been new revelations in the Times today about remarks that he has made in the past indication perhaps that he didn't vote for Brexit, that he'd actually been fearful waking up after the Brexit debate obviously In recent days, more revelations about his use of violent and sexual language online in past social media posts that's been unearthed as well as racist language as well. And I just wonder obviously reform standing very solidly by him. I think we've seen from Danny Kruger, of course, a leading kind of policy voice in the party desire not to of condone that language or to support it, but nor to say actually that we're condemning the candidate outright and completely disassociating ourselves from him and reform have defended him. I just wonder from your perspective, whether or not you think that this is going to make any difference or not. Well, it's interesting comparing and contrasting the reform candidate with the other candidates, right? Because everybody is doing a sort of Normal people ring against politics thing here. you've got Andy Burdam the newew Labour That's new labour with a big end and a small end, the new Labour anti politician. You've got Robert Kenyon, who is a you know, the archetypal working tradesmen and you've got Restores candidate who is a local mum who campaigns on special educational needs issues, right? Because so these are all you know not particularly political people But look, the calculation Reform of M today on That candidate, Robert Canyon is the that normal people in inverted commerce, some of the stuff he was saying about immigration um You know, we'll strike a cord of people at the same time restore have been attacking Robert Kenyan and some of the more graphic remarks he's made about particularly female celebrity in the past. it's interesting to see them attacking him from from that angle I'm All of this adds up to something we knew already really, which is this is a really, really finally poise raace. But look regardless of whether restore support is overstated or not It's going to tell us something we didn't know, which is how do reform respond when they are faced with a challenger to their right because Reforms line on restestore is pretty robust You know, they think it's a party that is basically beyond the pale of acceptable discourse So you know, I don't think we're going to see reform lurching to the right try and win that restore emphasizing the central plank of their new message, which is, you if you don't like the Labour Party and you don't like politics as usual, you've got to vote for Nigel Farge. you know, you risk letting Andy Burnham in on an even worse woker version of the Labour Party in if you vote for anyone but reform. And it'll be a big test as well as built a very effective and high tech field operation How effective are they identifying those sort of waaverers or those people attempted by restore and hitting them with a personaled squeeze message. It'll be a big test of how they exist in that sort of broader righting ecosystem. And I think it will be really interesting to see how central or otherwise Robert Kenyan actually even is to this race. I mean it's quite notable that Andny Burnham has been absolutely everywhere. and he's done tons of press and interviews in recent days, and I think we'll come to talking about his shifting stances on some of those political issues in previous pledges. But it's interesting when you think about Robert Kenyan we had a very slick launch video from him. We had a very slick and pretty long, I think something like nine minute video of him talking about politics in the front of his van with Nigel Farage. I sat down with him and did have a big conversation with him, but he's not been front and center of this race. He's not a kind of media trained politician at all. And I noticed, you know, when I was interviewing him, I would say he was pretty nervous Like he didn't feel like he was in his kind of natural habitat at all. And I just wonder how much you know, Niigl Farge is going to kind of thrust himself to the front and centre of this contest owing to that because I think it will be quite interesting to see, particularly with the more scrutiny that Kenyan is getting. I do want to ask you about Burnham though because obviously we've seen quite a lot in recent days about his stances on various political issues that we're reading in the Times this morning about some disaffection, I think it's fair to say on the left of the Labour Party about what might be seen as him moving slightly further away from some of these previously and perhaps more openly progressive political issues. Do you think this matters so much and how relevant do you think it will be? Well in the campaign notot hugely, I think, because all Andy Burnham is doing is saying a series of things that bringing closer to what most people in the constituency he's trying to win believe For those of us who are trying to divine Burnam government looks like H we seen over the last week or so on everything from the tax policy in the manifesto to the HRC guidance on on trans and gender issues and sex based rights. you know, insert and the EU as well, insert and proportionate representation right, insert a whole range of things Exactly the things that Andy Burnham might have said. were his points of difference with K Stara. have been downgraded from sort of policy proposals to aspirations to know hopes and dreams. Does that tell us something important though? And this is the question I've been grappling with is the actual proposition here that Andy Burnham is not going to change anything T drastic He's talking about taxing land. That's about the boldest thing he's now saying, right lookingking at an a counter tax. is the Burden project unless and until he can win an election by himself. Just to lean into what this government actually is, which is a pretty conventional, straight up and down middle of the road, wouldouldn't look at a place in central Europe. Is he just going to lean into the policy decisions Star has taking, which are pretty left wing on everything from recognition of Palestinian statehood to to foreign policy? Do you just lean into those and communicate them more effectively? But in terms of what it means for the bia election, these sort of U turns or adjustments or refinements and any any bonus position. Where they might work is if reform If they have a way of winning this race They always thought it was going to be remind people that Andy Burnham is a politician, right? He is ultimately a politician. The choice of Robert Kenyon compared to passast by election candidates like Clear Powell and Kafilli Sarah Poaching, you know, former Tory councor etcetera etera. She she won in Roncorn Ver deliberate choice, don't pick a politician. He's running against a professal politician, even though he no longer looks like a professional politician Nanny Burnam. Remind people that Any Bone is a politician that he' flip floppping that hes that he is that he is uterating, et cetera, et cetera So, can they do that Let's see. It's really interesting. I think I mean, just listening to you speaking about those changes, slash refinements slash whatever of those terms you wanted to use, was this question that is doing the rounds at the moment, which I guess is sort of two or three degrees removed from political reality insofar as we still don't know how the by election is going to go, still less if and how Kis Aamma might fight after that happens. But this question as to whether or not we would see an early election should You know, S Beron becomes the leader and does have all of these bold plans that he has spoken about in the past that he would like to do, but feels constrained by the manifesto to do them. I think it' the Professor R Ford from Manchester who is calling these mandate fairies, basically saying it's completely unrealistic to say that there would be early election circumstances where you've got more than four hundred Labour MPs and an enormous majority and the only person who has gone out on a limb and done something as silly as to call an early election from a position of parliamentary strength was Theresa May, and that didn't go very well. And I just wonder what your thoughts are in that respect, because there are conversations that you have with those, particularly on the more progressive wing at the moment, who are feeling a little bit nervous, I think it's fair to say about these kind of changes or shifts in stance from Andy Berham who are sort of, you think, maybe slightly hoping that actually he would do something to make it possible to do these bold things that he wants rather than wait for a few years for an election and then perhaps never even see any of these more progressive ideas realised. I don't think anybody around Andy Berham is seriously thinking about an early election at this stage. I have spokeen with a couple of MPs who are supporting him who say, you know It's a shame how this has happened in a way. It would probably be better for Andy Burnham looking as well at some of the growth data that came out this week if he was taking over a similar position to Mark Carney, you know even with a year to ago where you could benefit from a polling bounce And then you know, be able to call an election with you know, because it's towards the end of the cycle anyway. calling an election, you know, little more than two years in, even three years in. But the emphasis on for Andie Bernam will be getting on delivering or selling what the government is already doing more adeptly. Yeah And there is no look there is no question it Even Andy Burnham is going to win in the best case scenario a comparable number of seceips to twenty twenty so in a way he he can only lose. That's a really interesting point. Okay. well we will ee you shortly after the break. and I just want to acknowledge for those who are watching online that there have been a few location changes for Patrick McGuire owing to his phone overheating and to relocate to rejoin us from Hy but all as well, and we will see you shortly Every morning throughout the World Cup, the game, football podcast from the Times and Sunday Times will bring you your essential daily briefings We'll hear from our reporters inside the England and Scotland camps bringing you the big news first. We've got reporters covering the best of the rest and following all the biggest stories. From FIFA banning water to Donald Trump coming on as a sub against paraguay. O, maybe not the last bit, but who knows? So join the game for the biggest show on earth. Find the game wherever you get your podcasts Welcome back. We are going to be discussing a little bit about the government that is still existing and work is still ongoing, but particularly through the lens of one figure, and that is Rachel Reeve, the Chancellor, because we're hearing more from her this morning. She's signed a letter urging her colleagues to buy British. But it's not the first Patrick, is it that we've heard from the Chancellor in recent weeks And since the local elections that suggests She might be very, very keen to let people know that she'd wants to stay in her job regardless of what happens over the coming months. No, she's been raising eyebrows and a couple of hackles around the cabinet table, the Chancellor, because she has been kiss ars in the wake of the the local elections. she has been in overdrive announcing a raft of new measures for the cost of living. cuts to temporary cuts to VAT, free bus travel for teenagers a whole range of things, you know, and the word they're using in a treasury is popul that stripe solid economic oulism It's very much in tune with the new mood in the Labour Party And you know, there have been briefings too to the Guardian and, I think in each our papers that She'd be keen to stand as Chancellor to stabilize the market. And you mentioned Lara her letter to fellow cabinet ministers talking about buying British There was actually a clash at the cabinet table last week or Pash is one way of putting it. I think there was there was a sharp rebuke from Rachel Reeves tored Milibbam over his departments's use of non British suppliers for offshore wind And she's been saying, you know what, even if it costs a government more, we need to buy British, right? Quite sharp political messaging from the Chancellor. And you wantt tell from this or discern from this that she may well be in a position of political weakness. The first thing anyone who takes her from KSar is going to do is probably not keep her b the braefings probably get rid of her. But it's interesting, right? She is a chancellor who actually does, if you speak to her allies, feel vindicated by events, feel like she's made the right calls, and is Pably running the only bit of the government that's really doing anything. R right now, it's really striking. I don't know what you think Yeah, I mean, it's very interesting. I think also we should discuss this question of the Chancellor post Kisdarmo if indeed that does come to pass because I think it's been Something of received wisdom that Ed Milliband would be the Chancellor that Andy Bernam would choose. but actually, of course there's been quite a few rumblings that it could be Shabanam Ma Mood, of course at the moment, the homeome seecretary, and somebody who completely, we should say, those close to her deny any suggestion that she's got anything at all to do with this. But it is interesting, I'm hearing rumbles from the centre left of anxiety about the future Chancellor and who it might be. and I think that role in particular is a subject of a huge amount of jostling, much of which has actually dismissed out of hand seemingly, and perhaps prematurely the idea that Reeves herself could well carry on. And I mean I I struggle to remember exactly how many weeks this is I'f. A a few weeks ago, I was speaking to a number of MPs who were saying that they were genuinely very concerned about the bond markets and circumstances where there was a change of leader and they did feel that Rachel Weavves would be a pretty solid option to continue actually, and that there wouldn't be a huge amount of fiscal maneuvering that they could do anyway. And so this would be a great signal to the markets that Berden wasn't going to scare anybody and that this would be a government that they didn't need to be worried about. And I think also quite interesting listening to the radio this morning, Lord Wson, of course, you know the head of N and also a conservative peer sharply criticising many of this government's policies, particularly around things like the minimum wage, mentioning the sharp rise that we're seeing in youth unemployment at the moment. But it was very interesting on the Today programe on radiofall this morning that he at the end of the interview was asked about Rachel Reeves and whether or not It might be a good idea to keep her and did basically, without saying it explicitly, but did basically say that it would be a good signal and a good sign of stability were she to say? I mean just stopped short of saying that explicitly, we should say, but basically was in that position. And I do wonder if we get closer to a situation where there was a change of leader, you would see more of this momentum behind her It's worth saying that a lot of stuff Gaker Reeve has been announcing over the past couple of weeks Treasuryource at pains to say, you know, was in trained before the local elections, but at the same time, you know These people are not stupid. They knew where it was going to end up and where the Labour Party's direction of travel is heading And using words like populace I does suggest a sense that Rachel Reeves isn't allergic to the new politics of the Tes and I think the you know, the Lw Wolfson thing is really interesting, right? And you identify, right. Very critical of what the government is doing now Yeah, and some of the policy choices, but ultimately Ding you know feeling with Rachel Reeves, because we do know, right that whether it's fair or not and there can be as many Ad Milliband briefings or briefings about Ad Miliband, I should say Ad Milibamand deny he's befing anyone or source close to him or briefing anyone. Briefings about Miliband in the FT saying, you know, he T told Andy Burnham to commit the fiscal rules or whatever reggardless, you know, the market's clearly on That hot on the idea of a Andy Beram millerband combination. so It's going to be one of the most revealing and interesting choices Andy Berner makes and the difficulty is it's actually quite hard to discern what he's going to do and who in the cabinet Isel A dow Because look at like the cabinet are doing and aren'tving It m us it You know, they've been told by Andy Grom's compampaign and you can come up and you can knock doors, but you're not doing photo ops, right? You know So Rachel Reeves is up there She'll be knocking on doors inore Hindley. like she's not going to be doing phot calls with And Bernam. I mean, I think You know, if we were betting people If you speak to Labour MPs, the other person they want to get rid of is the Chancellor There is actually a strong counter a case for doing it. And I think Rachel Rves recognizes that Otherwise she wouldn't behaving in the way she has been in recent weeks And I mean, much will also you imagine depend on how she handles the coming months with the fallout from the Iran warar? I mean, obviously, we saw some announcements from her last week, clearly aiming to reassure voters, but also especially reducing that on summer attractions, for example, clelearly things that are trying to just appeal to the basic sense of them More popular with voters. I mean that package was quite interesting, but it did not include the biggest answer, which is what they're going to be doing about voters' energy bills. And surely that is going to be something that Reeves has to grapple with. And if indeed they are in circumstances where they can't be as generous as they otherwise would like, is she going to go into the kind of window in which Andy Berner makes a decision about her political future from a position of relative weakness? I think it's hard to see with the timing at the moment how that might work I had a story on the front page of the Times last week about that same question, Laura, about timing, you know, when is the best time for these decisions and these transitions to be made people in and around number ten saying, well actually Kistom could hang onntil early next year because Uy Burnne will have a mayor by election to lead once he takes every maker field, you know People toost a number ten saying Anieburnam doesn't want to take up until November. K Am has got a conference to do. What if Labour lose the Mayor by election? whichich by the way, they probably won't because they're changing the electoral system back to the supplementary vote, which makes it harder for a forform to win the day after the Makerfield by election And then what if he loses that by election, you know, maybe Kistm is going be PM until eararly next year regardless of when Andy Burnham takes over If was in the near term, he might in the thick of the straight up move stuff and the economic crash in the oil shop. And does it become less attractive as time goes on? And clearly he wants be Prime Minister exactly when he takes over may play a big, big role in determining how long a honeymoon he gets. It would be really interesting to see how Andy Bernon manages that kind of incumbency anti incumbency factor in this by election. In one of the focus groups that we did, there was a voter who very much didn't really think that a vote for Andy Bernon was a vote for so called change. I mean, she basically said you know, I don't like Nigel Farge, but I just don't know if I can vote Kis Starm. I meanm literally suggesting that Kissed Armor was on the ballot here in the way that many people have accepted that he is not. So I think there's still a lot that's set to be determined about how that election is seen. But I think mean we do also need to talk a little bit about I recognize really that Kissed Armor is still in number ten. And I guess the question is are we actually completely certain that he's going to be leaving number ten. I don't know if we' full address that y While we're having this conversation, of course, the government is announcing various measures. We've seen them tout good news in their view on falling migration, on N's waiting lists on, as you say, growth being revised upwards Can we just address this slight elephant in the room because we're sort of pretending we know with absolute certainty what's going to be happening? Do you think there's a world in which Kissed arrmour survives? and if not, can you just lay out for listeners why it is that journalists are talking with so much foresight and forward thinking at the moment about the possibility of a future beyond Kissed arrmour? so many labor MPs and So many cabinet ministers and so many ministers are all acting as if know, it's just a matter of time and the Makefield by election is a mere formality after which Andy Berham is going to become Prime Minister. or There might be a leadership contest with West streeting. You got a guy who was health secretary until about ten days ago going on the radio talking about how he's going to challenge the Prime Minister You've got and you've got the Marig Ga managter running in by election with the express purpose of you know getting r the Prime Minister and changing labor locally and nationally, as he keeps saying in his campaign materials So it'd be weird if You know, people weren't treating this as a de facto transition of power It should be said though, you know, I mentioned that story I wrote in the Times Last week There is a sort of feeling, ye