Reform Party Strategy and Farage

In twenty sixteen, a twenty two year old known as Posh George was jailed in the US for wire fraud standing by his side when he was arrested was Nigel Farraage. Join me, Gabriel Pogan from The Sunday Times For a wild ride through the worlds of politics, crypto, and crime It's in our new podcast series, Post George, the crriminal behind Farraage Search for Post George the Times wherever you get your podcasts Westminster and Whitehall are set up for conflict and they require radical change if the country is to get back on track. We will create a more streamlined state with a clearer purpose. To power up all parts of the country, the change will be driven through the Prime Minister's office in an extended operation based here in Manchester What the country wants is immediate action. and I tell you what, they're not going to get it from Mrter Burnham, or should I say, open borders Andy Welcome to The State of it, the pololitical podcast from The Times and the Sunday Times. I'm Stehven Swinford, the political editor of the Times. I'm Patrick Mcuire,ief political comommentator for the Times. I'm Laura Surittt, deeputy political editor of the Sunday Times. Hell look, we want to talk to you today about the potential return of David Milliband. Yes, we are back in the Cane en Ales scenario two Miliban brothers potentially in Andy Burnham's cabinet. It is a real thing. It could happen. So we could be reliving some of the psycho drama of those new Labour years all over again. And then we want to kind of talk more broadly about Andy Burnham's big debut speech yesterday and how that's gone down and where we think things are going. But should we just open up by talking about David Milliban because I mean, he wants it, Laura. Let's start there. We are told David Milabad very much wants to be back on frontline politics. He's been out working in the US. for many years, but people close to him are linking him to the role of foreign Scretary Yeah, I mean, I think it's really interesting.rom an oututsider perspective, what you would say looking at that is you already have this question about how Andy Ban was going to cope with accusations that he is not a woman and his chancellor, if Ed Miliband is not a woman. If you have a situation where there are more millibands and great offers of state than there are women, then I think there will be people particularly in the Parliamentary Labour Party, women in Parliamentary Labour Party who are very concerned about that state of affairs. if you don't have Ed Miniband in the Chanceampllorship role, if that does in some they persuade say Shabah Mahmouud to be able to do that job, That's looking increasingly unlikely, but say they are able to do that. And Ed Milliband is in a more junior position than David Milliband. And we know in history, we know the two have not necessarily had the easiest of relationships. I think that presents its own potential difficulties. know speaking to people this morning, I think one of the things that people float is David Miniban's experience in development. I mean, could he have a kind of high profile role in that particular space att the moment? There is a cabinet minister, a Baron Chapman, who is the development minister. I think look back to that cut that they did to the Foreign A budget to fund defence, you remember, at the time the Parliamentary Lab Party the soft left of the Parliamentary Labour Party were incensed about that and felt very let down. they then mobilized andaged make sure that a further cut to foreign aid was ruled out to fund the defefense investment planl. So this is a very mobile and active part of the Parliamentary Labour Party, and one that David Milliband is in very close contact with who he knows many of these people. Of course you've spoken about his background in this. There's a question, I think about how Andy Burnham approaches the development budget, Not necessarily would he boost the budget, but is there something that they would want to do that's perhaps more bold in this space. So I'm not saying he's not going to be foreign Secretary, but I'm just saying there are some that are questioning some other possible roles that he might have. Something worth reflecting on here though, what we've all referred to is History of David Milleran. The fratricide. The fratricide, whatever you want to call it, right? The David Ed relationship What happened in twenty ten and the riff that caused no relationship there. Anyone who knows both them will say it was those years were difficult as you'd expect But I think there are now That narrative has You know, taking root in Westminster like Japanese knotweed. and I think there is There are rather Quite a lot of outdated misconceptions about that relationship and the state it's Now in the interesting thing that I've heard from a couple of people and this hasn't been denied indeed, it's been stood up is that Edmiland has been one of the people internally in Andy Burnham's camp who's been making the case and was one of the first people to make the case that David, his brother would have a lot to offer. Andy Burnham Goodman and That's not a question of, you know, make my brother X or make my brother Y. but it tells you something quite important about where that relationship is. E Milliband is Bold accounts entirely relaxed and indeed encouraging you know, the return of his brother to Westminster. and it's It's going to be interesting if that does happen Less on that sort of interpersonal relationship, I think that will be the dog that doesn't bark but' be more along the lines you were talking about Laura. You know, what does it mean for the policy choices and the way Burnham government presents itself the country. I think one of the challenges you identified it very early there, Laura, is there are only so many jobs to go round. And this is a quote that my colleague Ollywright got from a female cabinet minister this morning, You cannot have more millibands than women in top jobs. That kind of thing matters. And that is the point here. If you had David Milliband and Ed Milliband in the say, you know, in one as Chancellor and one as foreign seecretary, then that is a kind of disproportionate balance towards men that are called milliband And that presents a quiet Sificant challenge for Andy Berher. There are only so many jobs to go around. Yeah. I mean I spoke to a female cabinet minister last week who also said there'd been quite significant unease about this women question in recent weeks. I think in part because originally there'd been a hope among some that there would be a woman who challenged in any leadership contest. Obviously nobody is arguing with the political logic at the moment that has just basically Basically four Sandy Belham. towards the forefront of this in a way that means that it would be pretty insane for anybody now to challenge him. And this particular cabinet minister was saying to me You know it's not just this kind of wider question of women. it's also the fact that we saw that briefing in the spectator suggesting that Andy Bernen was a female prime minister because he cared about female issues rather than, I think it was bombs and budgets, which are, of course, exclusively the purview of men, as we well know. But also they felt actually the treatment by number ten of Shaban Mahmou, the homeome Secretary last week, which in their view was laced with you a kind of a level, I don't think they definitely didn't use the word misogyny, but they just felt that there was perhaps a level of disrespect in in the way that she was slapped down, essentially by number ten, all coalescing into a view that actually at the moment, the Lab Party is perhaps not in the strongest possible position it can be with regards to its quote unquote women problem I mean, I was in Poland with Vvette Cooper, of course, the foreign Secretary last week and I asked her, you know about that briefing to the spectator. And she was quite clear you know of course she would want to see a female leader of the Labour Party one day, but that Andy is the right person for now. And I think broadly that is where Parliamentary Labour Party is right. and that does mean that it's slightly less difficult for them. But when it comes to The second question, which is of course staffing the government itself rather than the person that is at the very helm of it, I think they will come into some problems because as you say, if you have David, Ed, and Andy at the very top of this government That is going to be a difficult that is just going to be difficult optics. I'm sorry. it is. There's no way in which that isn't complicated for them. Even if you have, you know, Shaban Mamouud by all it by all accounts an extremely strong and formidable holder of a great office of state, you still will have three men in those positions. And James Panll running number ten as well. anotherother of their contemporaries and It's very it's very, you know, you can see already And you're getting faint rumblings of this. You know, Laura Kirkmith, who's the MP for I think Aylesbury in Buckinghamshire made this point lastast week and lots of their MPs did privately is Andy Burnham could end up looking like he's running a sort of new Labor reunion Bys club, or on the other hand, he could end up looking like a very regional politician and it's Lou and it's Mid andan he's mjly running the show. And you know, o I'm an MP in a twenty twenty four game in the home counties, you know, these people don't like me. I mean That's not the image they're putting across. Andy Burnham is putting the hard yards of meeting all these people in, but you can very see how some of those reductive criticisms and in the same way that Kiss Armers in a circle always had the Bys Cub attack on them from Sue Gay and her allies was reductive. but you can see how this will C And at this stage you wouldn't put it more strongly than could become a narrative that has life its own. One of the challenges is at this point in time, Andy Burnham is undeniably he's probably the most powerful he will be at any point because he hasn't announced his cabinet, hasn't made any of the big decisions about where he's going yet. So everyone, as you were saying last week, is looking over at him. They want to kind of curry his favor. But that does mean that people are vying for these top jobs, right? There are a lot of we'll start with West Streeting. A lot of streeting allies are saying, look well two of them I supp say He doesn't have a chance of being Chancellor. They reckon that's going to be Milliban. So we shall see on that, but they do fancy him oreign Secretary They think you do a great job. so you're getting briefings along that. and some other people are also trying to brief themselves into other jobs, Laura. This was one of the more curious turns of my weekend, which was the case of Zabir Ahmed, who was, of course, a health minister under West Streeting until he resigned in the wake of the local elections and there had been suggestions that he had been in talks I mean reports that he had been in talks with Andy Burnham's team to become Health Secretary. that is categorically denied, and indeed I've been told that Andy Burnham has had the ick, which which is which is parance. I mean, how would you describe the Iick toir that isn't well acquainted at that time? It sort of general feeling that you suddenly become extremely disgusted Andnie Bam has the ick with people basically trying to brief themselves into jobs in their view, and that essentially they feel that this has This has come out of nowhere. and so it has been extremely hard recently, standing up any question of who might be in particular positions in a future Andy Berham cabinet. It has not been particularly hard ruling out some of these individuals who won't be. And I think we can say definitively that Zabir Ahmed is not going to be the next health seecretary. So Berham stood up and he does seemed to treat this speculation as he call it with a degree of contempt Lucy Powell, Labour Dputy leadader was calling it titittle tattle over the weekend. that the reason it exists, and I think they're both completely wrong on that. I think the speculation is fully justified is it really matters who the Chancellor is. It really matters who the homeome seecretary is. And we are in an effective vacuum at the moment because he is trying to construct a government in the space of three weeks ago. But you know obviously, it matters if Ed Milliband's going. And it matters to these individuals as well. We are getting a lot of calls from Allies of Ed Milliband, promoting him, from as we said, Allies of Web Street, promoting him for the role of foreign seecretary. This is real. We have to report it. And the reason it is happening is because Andy Berer has chosen to do this process The other way around. So he is announcing his vision and his plans first and then in the final week we think, so week three, he's going to announce his chance so retrofit the key people to he's got a series of speech on different areas coming up to his agenda when he decides who's best to fit them. But obviously that creates a power vacuum and a lot of speculation. Yeah, it does. And it's interesting that Yeah, he said that very categorically in Mchester yesterday. You know, I'm not going to engage with speculation. I'll only speak at the end of this process Having dinner with a source close to a cabinet minister last night. We were kicking this idea around, you should he announce his cabinet now? and even someomeone who is anxiously waiting to see what their face is. Well, it makes complete sense because point of maximum leverage over absolutely everyone, including people who a fortnight ago a month ago said Andy Burnham was a joke, a clown, a flip flopper, a complete charlatan, right? All of these people are now on bended knee, tugging their fallock, saying, o, Andy, I've always loved Everton and the music of the Smiths Andy please, please pay attention to me. I agree with everything you say.. And for some of them, by the way on substantive points of policy, that's actually true. But for many more of them, it's completely unconvincing. So you know, if Any Burnham has got the Iick, that Iick is only going to intensify over the over the next fortnight because of the very deliberate choice he's made to not engage with the notot engaged with the speculation. And it's interesting because difference with the Starmmer project here is Like you could in theory, like find out what Kiss Arma thought about something Yeah, a give an issue, a give an appointment But there was always the sense at light Does he think anything? mayaybe think something, but what he thinks willll be different to what Morgan thinks or what Rachel thinks so what insert sixteen other people here think Here you get a real sense that actually Andy Berham is the principal. right? know Yes, people bring influence to Baron him A large part of the reason we don't know Andy Burnham's Chancellor is because the only person that knows for certain who Andy Burnham was to be Chancellor is Andy Burnham. as one Cabinet source saying to me yesterdays another Cabinetant source saying to meesterday you, We've tried a non politician who was influenced by very political people. but now we've got a professional politician pretending not to be a professional politician in charge and knowns the game, right? He's been here before. He's seen this from every angle And it's quite confounding for people like us because it's you know, refusing to refusing to play the game that so sustains and invigorates us. That will change soon. He will be in government. He's going to have to engage and there will be a whole cabinet beneath him. Look When we come back from the interiew, we should talk about his debut speech and what that signals about where we're all headed and this massive devolution agenda he's got. Every morning throughout the World Cup, the game, football podcast from the Times and Sunday Times will bring you your essential daily briefing. We'll hear from our reporters inside the England and Scotland camps bringing you the big news first. We've got reporters covering the best of the rest and following all the biggest stories. From FIFA banning water to Donald Trump coming on as a sub against Paraguay Okay, maybe not the last bit, but who knows? So join the game for the biggest show on earth. Find the game wherever you get your podcasts Welcome back to the State of it and look, we just want to talk about Andy Burnham's debut speech because it is a moment. it is the first time he's kind of exposed himself to the voters more broadly. They're making their mind up about him. As a starter for ten One thing that is obviously very clearly different to Starma is There is some swagger there. The guy can communicate. He knows what he is and what he's about. the tone is very different to Starma. Well, that's the difference with Kia Stara, isn't it? Steve The thing is an Andy Burnham speech The thing that struck me And you always got this with Kirstamma speeches idn't you The language was Dynamic He said, I am going to this whereereas Keir Stahmer would point at problems and describe them. And that's the problem with a Kir Stahmer speech, isn't it, Steve I'm sure Andy Burnham isn't listening to this podcast, but can I just say that's a mark of W solidarity? I'm trying to reclaim the Andy Burnham impression from people who make him out to be a member of the Beatles is wols speak and I think it's really important we have wool representation in the media so solidarity to all wols out there. But no, I mean to say that in my own voice, it was clear, it was dynamic. and that was one of the phrase that R took out to me, I am going to do X, right? You know And I just I actually was talking to someone as, you know, in conversation with A a former star raaider, a speech was going on, we were both listening to it and I said, that is so unlike a Kar speech. And I said, ye, absolutely likeike you can you never hear that in a Kar speech. couldould it be a sort of like rambling and torture thing like, you know,, people say a government can't do X, but I've always thought why And you know, it was also like these imagined repipuls to critics who didn't exist and like sort of quite stropy meta commentary on like how difficult it is to be Kiss Aara Burn there it was like a very clear political argument his enemies and rhetorically and presentationally very strong. Now, obviously the flip side of all of that is People are saying, Where's the beef like?ere's the policy detail But actually there was just a clear through line of argument from Andy Bernham And for various reasons, some of them political, some of them presentational You never really got that sense of consistency from Kirst Aara who, you know, is less of a natural and experienced political orator, I think, is the fairirest way to put it in comparison A Andney Burndam Well let's talk about the substance, Laura, because we have been here before. We've seen Boris Johnson come into office with a pledge to level up the country, he took a bit of the treasury, moved it to Darlington. There is trying to talk about devolution in a way that grabs votes is actually a very hard thing because it is an abstract concept. and that's what he's trying to do here. But what did you make of the substance of what you were saying I mean, there is clearly a distinction between devolution where you're actually shifting power and some of the kinds of things that Berhnam is talking about separately, which is you're splitting number ten and you're moving some of it to a different place or you're splitting the treasury and you're moving some different place. That's just moving central government to a different location. That's not actually moving power fully somewhere else. And that I think is a key distinction that people around Berham are very sensitive to, which is why I think they'll be keen to go as far as they possibly can on this. I mean I was rereading some of the leveveling up white paper that was published under Boris Johnson in which they do make the case that in the examples they give, for example, in Germany, post war Germany, the amount of money that was spent in order to do this was completely extraordinary. I mean like really, really extraordinary. And I think that is something that they are going to be grappling with over the coming weeks and months is the extent to which There are also people about those trade offffs and just the extent to which under the existing fiscal framework Burdam is actually able to do as much of what he wants to do and see it genuinely have effect. I mean, all roads lead to tax rises, right? If you look at the scale of that program, re industrialization, the biggest Cncil House building program since the post war period, it all needs money and there is no money. So if you're sticking to the fiscal rules then that does leave you in a place where you're going to have to raise taxes. and we know where he is on tax on wealth, things like capital gains tax huge questions as whether they would raise that money. But it was a really interesting intervention this morning from Jim O'Neill. who is a former Goldman Sachs banker former treasury minister who is going to be an economic advisor. And he was basically saying, don't raise taxes. Business have been taxed too much. The solution is not to raise taxes. The reason that we're talking about this aspect of it is because This devolution program he's announced is rewiring of the state. That is a long term The was talking about ten years God knows how many of the last seven prime ministers in this decade have talked about ten years of power. They all talk about ten years of power. but it's going to take time and it's certainly not going to you'll see signs of it, but it's not going to yield meaningful results, if it does yield meaningful results in the next three years. So Burnham is going to have to have a really radical economic agenda beyond devolution. This language about rewiting the state kind of playays for partarty is all great, but you are dealing right now with really difficult economic times, the public finance are in a parless state. We've just had the government rip itself apart over defense spending, right? That's still going to be coming down the tracks Randy Bernam with the spending review next year. So all of these problems are still there. and I don't think at this stage, devolution is the answer to those problems. It might be in ten years time. it might be in five years time, but certainly by the time of the next general election That's one of the challenges here. I mean, on the devolution stuff, I sort of With a couple of hours distance yesterday By the time I was on the train back at sort of three o'clock from Manchester, it occurred to me that only one thing really stood out to me, and that was number ten North And I was speaking to people I said, is this not You know, am I right in thinking actually what you've pulled off here is probably the most clelever and effective. sort of deceptive bit of political branding in history. right We think number ten North and you have an image of Andy Burnham hiring a coworking space on a Friday so he can get an early train Back up on Thursday and then, you know there's beers in the office and you know everyone's hot desking and no one's really doing any work and it's all cosmetic If you listen to what he was saying you know, we played the clip at the top of this show about everything running through the Prime Minister's office. He set out the mandate for number ten North, which was reggeneration of the regions It was re industrialization and it was reform of utilities to take them into public control. They are three massive macroeconomic priorities. the sort of thing Often if you put those inside the treasury and a submission to the treasury, that's the place they go to die. So it's a big signal of intent. It's not breaking up the treasury, but it's I am going to create a counterweight to the treasury. to which people might say, oh, we've heard that before. What's the difference? Well, it is actually the firm smack of prime ministerial authority. the North bitit is almost like a sort of that's a nice to have. and obviously stuff will be run out of there in a meaningful way and it means a lot tiny burnom. But N part of number ten's mandate now. and one of Andy Burn's close Allies were saying this to me last night, you know, this is Andny Berham personally taking control of rewiring the economy There is a risk with it, right? Because underlying all of this is his argument, his principle, his assumption that local government is best, the closer government is to the people, mayors, councils, they will make the best decisions But that is not necessarily always going to be true. The country is not blessed with incredible public servants everywhere and just as White Hall isn't. So you know a lot of the mayors that are going to get these powers are going to be people that are ideologically opposed to labor and ani burnum. They arere going to be reform mayors When you actually start to dig into it, and it's also you're going to need to create a whole new level of the state at a local level So it's one thing to give them the money to spend, but they're going to need people. they're going to need more staff. So you could get a much bigger bureaucracy at the end of all of this because that is the nature of rewiring, it takes time. youre going need the right people in place to deliver things. It's not It's not necessarily a sl stand up, but this is the gamble. He says this will change Britain. It will make it all better. but I'm just not quite clear if necessarily that is always going to be the right answer. And there will be some hits and misses, I imagine in the process. Can I just end by kind of circling back to where we started, which is Ed Miliband So just before Andy Burnham did his speech yesterday, Kemi Badennock gave a speech. And in that speech, she talks repeatedly and consistently, not about Andy Burnham But about Ed Miliband. She said voters are terrified of him. He would effectively destroy the economy. At one point, she compared it to a Nigerian dictator. But very clearly, opposition parties are kind of rubbing their hands at the prospects of Ed Milibad becoming Chancellor. Now, Ed Milibad's allies would say, look, he has the experience and dyningism to turn the economy around These are radical times. you need a radical solution. Ed will do that. he will transform the economy. But his detractors say, this guy is a lightning rod for criticism And that's going to be a problem for you. and it makes the job of Kemy Badn and Nigel Farge easier. Yeah. And I mean, I think Allies of Vandy Berhamar are genuinely worried about the idea that it might We've obviously been through on this podcast all of the concerns that they have about Ed Milliban. I think it's fair say that those have been communicated obviously to Andy Burnham in recent weeks. he will be well aware of the fact that there are people who want him to do well who have reservations about Ed Milliban. but it does feel at this point like it's becoming increasingly likely that it is going to be Ed Milliband. It feels like know Shiban Mammouood has made it clear that she wants to remain as homeome secretary, and we need to genuinely be persuaded, I think to do that role. Whereas Ed Milliband, as we've seen him in the last week, especially, I think we've seen the organisation of his allies in quiet an incredible way. I mean, the campaign that they've run has been genuinely impressive, I would say. not just people public facing, but also of course privately, All of us will have had calls from allies of Ed Milliband explaining to us why actually the idea that he would boot the markets is in their view really misguided. They think he's got a clear plan. That's actually what the markets care about. And so I think I mean, you know you can see why opposition parties say this because they have a very clear and well run practice of attacking Edmin A Band. L this is somebody who has been the bogeyman of labour's accesses. the whole of Salmas's preremiership in some respects, right? But I don't actually think that's the reason why people some of those people around Andy Burnham are concerned about Ed Minibaban. I don't think they're paying that much attention to that particular part of it. I think they're just quite concerned about the fact that they think that Ed Minibam would be a really, very powerful chancellor, so you would be capable perhaps of causing Andy Burnham grief if indeed a divergence between them. And I think what Patrick said about Prime mininisterial power is actually really telling in this respect. it's very interesting that there have been these big plans and there are some people around B who' have been publicly advocating for a more powerful number ten and some power being stripped away from the treasury. I think if you have Ailiban and Chas, it'd really interesting to see how those debates play out because learly, I'm not saying that's the reason why anybody thinks is definitely not and these views definitely predate any sense of Ed Miliband being Chancellor, but that skepticism of an all powerful treasury, I think will be quite an interesting thing to watch if indeed Edmiliband is in that job. Yeah And I should tell you what, by the way, I mean the ghost at the feast in all of this is, of course, Nigel Farage, who he heard from. the top of the show. I should tell you what reform think about this. or the leadership of reform. about this. It's been said they had a terrible night in makeakerfield terble candid, yeta, yada, yeta, right? That's their critique But actually they are looking at this. and I think Given what they're hearing in the The early cacing for the Greater Matched to abar election, particularly in the sort of outerburas of Ger Manchester, they feel pretty chipper, right? They think Andy Benham is in his honeymoon, but they are ready and what is striking actually speaks to them is that we are into the realms of brass tax and big financial decisions. know they are about to select the candidates I'm told for their fifty or one hundred target seats lotots of them in Burnham Country in the Northwest, in the Northeast, also in Essex, Lcolashsire Kent, Yorkshire, the East Midlands, onene of my favorite details from Reform's internal strategy is that they are aping Morgan McSweeney's targeting operation in twenty twenty four. They are trying to find The seats are most likely to give them a patter to number ten. and they're spending a lot of money. I'm told it's in the millions. hiring local organisers, opening regional offices and all of that. So you know, Andy Bham how the Labour Party fights this right? You they've got now a more competent person for the air war, but's the ground war is about to kick in and we'll see this in the Great Manchterb by election. We'll see this You know, reform are not going anywhere, right? You know, they are building a massive infrastructure in Burnham's backyard to make this a constant campaign And that is something Labour Party is going to have to adjust to. Maybe we're back in the world where you know we're in block politics and they're both going to max out the turnout on the right and the turnout on on the broad left, but it's something Andy Burnham is going to need a response to because reform from what I am hearing are not messing around. They want candidates in all of their top target seats. lot of them will be in Andy Burnham country by the end of the summer. And Farage's view has always been There'll probably be an earlier election than a later one. We should just say that obviously there is still this unresolved issue over the five million pound gift this reform donor. British Tateral Christopher Harbourne gave five million pounds, no strings attached, unconditional money. Farage is seems to be very well, he' highly defensive about it. He did aroundound about it the other week and said two things that were contradictory. he said, I can spend it on what I want, Ferraris, horses, it's my money, it's an unconditional gift. I can do what I want with it. but at the same token revealed he hasn't actuallys spent me the money and would be willing to give it back. And the reason