Navigating Future Political Challenges

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I'm Manvin Ranner t ten thirty PM on Monday night on a quiet residential street in North Belfast Locals were shaken by a series of screams and shouting. A we not? Outside, under the street lightights, a man could be seen writhing on the ground as an attacker, wielding a kitchen knife Hunt him down. Hurry off So this Already bloodied, the man could be heard shouting, What did I do? Help me. while onlookers, unable to tackle the man with a knife terrified about what might happen next Then Passer by leap into action G on them Carrying a hoe, the wooden stick used in the sport hurling videoide shows how he runs towards the attacker Hitting him on the head Dazed, the attacker drops the knife as others run in to subdue him, kicking him and shouting Get off before two police officers arrive Seconds later The recording stops The attacker, a thirty year old Sudanese man has been charged with attempted murder torch paper been lit and riots have broken out in Belfast and spread to other parts of the UK with masked men dressed in black shouting Foreigners out is dr So how might the attack in Belfast influence the political debate on immigration Broad and flaming tensions and has it caught the government on the back third? story today Belfast Rotes I am sitting in a car, my makeshift podcast studio outside of a church where I've just been speaking to two Ugandan women who've been left homeless after being essentially chased out of their home last night by a mob Constance Kampfner, Northern Reporter for the Times, is talking to us from Belfast where she's covering the story And I'd say the mood Fr them was obviously shell shock and for many people in the area, just apprehension, really shock at what happened last night and apprehension at what could still be to come as it starts to get darker here this evening Constance, all of his tension comes as a result of that attack on Monday night You were in court this morning where the alleged attacker who has been charged with attempted murder was appearing Tell us what do we know about him So the suspect is a thirty year old Sudanese man and he's called Hadi Aludid And the homeome offffice confirmed that he was on leave to remain in the UK until twenty twenty eight having been granted refugee status in twenty twenty three Neighbourors said that he'd lived in the predominantly Republican area of North Belfast. One said that they'd seen him coming and going, that he seemed like a normal guy, tall, muscly. We couldn't actually see him in court, he appeared. on a video link on a tiny screen far away from where the press was sitting. but we could hear that there was an interpreter there translating into Arabic for him. He didn't speak however, when addressed by the judge. He was representing himself. he'd refused legal representation and bail was refused. The judge deemed that it would be too dangerous to give him bail. So he'll appear again in four weeks when we will hear more about the circumstances around the attack And what do we know about the victim and how he is? So the victim has been named as Stephven Oglevy. He's a man in his forties. He's also understood to be a resident in the area. We know that he sustained really serious injuries. We were told that he'd been rushed to the hospital with serious wounds to his eyes, his face and his back We now know that he actually lost his left eye in that attack say awful wounds As a result of that attack, we know tensions have really flared up across Belfast, just give us a sense of what's been happening in the last day or two Posts were circulating on social media inviting people to come out onto the streets wearing black and to wear masks. And we were there for the beginning of one of these well what was supposed to be a peaceful protest, but very quickly turned into a riot. and it was about eight PM about three hundred people gathered and before They sort of started marching. They actually said the Lord's prayer. A woman led them through the Lord's prayer on a megaphone, you know, giving her thoughts to the victim But it was only minutes later that they were kind of walking down these union jack festooned streets picking out individual houses. So we were there when they started throwing bricks at a house which we believe there was some Rani a Romani family living in there. We saw a woman's face briefly appear at the window before she retreated. And it was a scene both of tension, but also there was something kind of carnivalesque about it. People were laughing as the bricks were bouncing off the windows. they began setting a car on fire. There was some graffiti on a wall just next door that said local houses for local people. And when we went back to that scene this morning, We actually were chatting to some neighbours. who said this was the third time that family had been targeted, that they kind of didn't get the message the last two times. And one woman told us, you know this was the last straw. they were causing us bother a nuisance and they needed to get out. So you got the sense that these houses, they were certainly not being picked at random. There was kind of community knowledge about where certain families were living Constance, you said earlier that you' outside a church at the moment where some families, some Ugandans are effectively hiding out What have they told you So I've just spoken to two women, Samaya and Stella. And Samaya, she's been in the UK for three years. She's a student doing a diploma in adult health. She's also a full time carer working with older people and vulnerable adults. She said that she's never experienced anything like this since arriving in Belfast. She described it as a very peaceful place. It was a very peaceful place until yesterday It really changed my mind like It is just too much like Maybe Tight I might go home. She said that last night she watched as the protest started peacefully, but very, very quickly escalated. She was watching as people were kind of burning bins and other street furniture outside the house. Then they went for the cars and then they started petrobombing some of the houses. Like at Ton seeen thirty eight, that is when they started petrobombing the houses How did you feel as you saw that st? It was so, so, so terrifying. Getting to know that this immediate neighbor L, you could see the flames from our house because our house has like you could see everything So I wasn't feeling well because I couldn't believe my eyes like it was too much. she is Asolutely terrified. phones the police. the police say, putut on your uniform. put on your carr's uniform. that might stop them but do not leave the house When the emergency services do arrive for firefighters and all the rest of it They actually can't get close enough to the house. It's too dangerous for them to try and get Samaya and Stella, her housemate, who is also a Ugandan carer out at which point one of the women rings their local So this is a guy called Jack McKee. and he raced over to the house finding, you know, awful scenes, police in riot gear and protesters holding bricks. and he essentially had to beg the protesors to just give him ten minutes, you know, saying these are god fearing people, giveive me ten minutes to get them out. I laid it with them and to give me ten minutes to let me get these women out and get them into my car. He found Samayah, she'd fainted out of fear. And Hrendous just to see these two women want of them to have been landing the ground for For four hours Hopey traumatized Yeah. So I think I blocked out the like I couldn't believe it like Why like this is really happening she' been unconscious she estimates for about. half an hour and together with per fire then managed to rescue the women. They stayed at his home last night. you know, they're homeless now. and Samaya said, you know, it's really, really changed her mind living here. She said she's here legally, you know she' nothing to do with the Sudanese man alleged to have committed the attack on Monday And she said, you know, They're targeting people who are actually looking after their mother or their granny. and someone who's actually rioting doesn't know that First on the attaggeting is actually looking after their mother or their granny. Meanwhile, I left my mother back home. She's wondering what that was all for Constance, you've described the scene of riots that you've watched as they unfold. in some parts of Belfast. What else is happening across Northern Ireland at the moment? Yeah, so what we saw was just one of many kind of similar scenes that erupted in different parts of the city. Homes, businesses, vehicles satellite, there was looting, public transport across the city was suspended and armoured policemans could be seen kind of speeding down empty roads, or helicopters ahead. Elsewhere in the city, rioters were seen throwing petrol bombs at officers. We saw kind of groups of young men, usually men dressed in black, some with kind of skull masks on looking really quite intimidating And they were riding around on scooters and bicycles, carrying things like hammers or petrolld filled kind of little milk bottles, erecting makeshift roadblocks by setting street furniture al and you know, peering into cars, letting certain drivers through, presumably people they kind of know to be community. And this isn't the first time that we're seeing immigration related riots in Ireland. Absolutely. I mean this part of the country, you it's one of the least diverse places in the UK. But in recent years we've seen various protests around the issue of immigration. You know lastast June, riots gripppt the town of Balamina For several nights after the alleged attempted rape of a teenage girl. In October, there was a riot targeting the city West Hotel in Dublin, housing refugees and asylum seekers there after the alleged rape of a ten year old girl. And we're speaking at about three thirty PM on Wednesday afternoon. So we don't know yet what things are going to look like tonight. But in court this morning, the judge noted that there had been posts circulating on social media, encouraging more mass protests, telling businesses to close their doors after one PM or else. I mean, it's worth noting that several businesses around here do remain open at this time. And John Butcher, the chief C constable of the Northern Iland police, he said the police will identify and prosecute those responsible for the violence and extra two hundred officers. be arriving to support local police on the streets. And those that are involved in the violence last night, let me say this. We will come and arrest you and we will prosecute you. And that's what we've done in the past here. veryer vociferously and we will do it as a result of the awful, awful tragic scenes that we saw last night that by the way were an insult to this poor victim and his family. Someone's already appeared in court in relation to the disorder. So the judge this morning was really keen to stress essentially that anyone caght kind of encouraging this kind of rioting or participating in it would feel the full force of the law, you know, he bystanders who intervened during that attack and the emergency services and pointed out you know, that those same emergency services were now coming under attack by those supposedly outraged at what had happened. What of the family of the victim said? The family of the knife attack victim said they wanted to make it absolutely clear that They did not condone the unrested. it was not welcome. And they actually said You know we've got many migrants who make and I quote, a deeply valuable contribution to our country, including in our health care system and hospitality sector. We depend on them to make our country work. And they said explicitly, we do not want this terrible tragedy to be used to divide people or fuel hostility They said that their focus right now is on Stehven on being at his bedside and helping him recover and they thanked those people who stepped in and helped him during that attack, which certainly would have saved his life, they said. Coming up. How much will events in Belfast change the political debate around immigration And how might it impact the bar election in Makerfield We'll have more from our man in Westminster In just a moment This episode of the Story is sponsored by PWC AI is everywhere. Return on investment? Not so much. So how do you move past the hype and make AI actually deliver? PWC takes you further with tech, strengthening the data quality, processes and workflows that shape how well AI performs. PWC turns innovation into implementation So you can accelerate from experiment to scale Discover more at pwc. co. uk. Today we'll attempt a feeat once thought impossible, overcoming high interest credit card debt. It requires merely one thing, a soFI personal loan. With it, you could save big on interest charges by consolidating into one low fixed rate monthly payment. Defy high interesterest debt with a sofI personal loan. Visit sofi dot com slash stuck to learn more Loans originated by SFi Bank NA member FDIC. Terms and conditions Apply NL S six nine six eight nine one It became a political event on social media within hours of it happening Oliver Wright is the pololicy editor at the Times, and he's been covering the political response to events in Belfast Tommy Robinson, the farar right activist that night posted the video online. And when it's really spiraled out since there speaking on Wednesday morning It's still kicking off as a political debate Ollie, this is the third summer now in a row of effectively immigration related protests and riots, disturbances. Is this becoming the new normal I think It is in a way. I mean If we look at this particular case, obviously it came of Henry Noere obviously didn't happen this summer, but the court case and the surrounding you know political backlash from that. So I think you have to see it within that context But yeah, I mean immigration been and is a huge issue When you talk to voters, particularly in areas like Makerfield, which has got a by election on at the moment, it is for some of them the absolutely number one issue. It's always in the background And then you have an incident like this horrific attack in Belfast, and it's almost like the sort of match that lights the flame And you know you have seen that over previous summers. Now. Obviously all the cases are different, but really it doesn't take much. It's the trigger point. and that's I think why you've seen it over a number of years now This is quite an awkward row for actually for both Cervatives and reform. This would normally be the sort of story that they would find very easy to talk about Not so easy this time, just explain why It is difficult and partly because of the sort of specific nature of this case. Now, the individual who has been charged with this attack, what do we know? We know that he entered the UK in twenty twenty three. He was a Sudanese national who had crossed over First to Ireland, he arrived in Dublin and then He went to Northern Ireland. Now there are no checks on people crossing between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland because of this thing called the common Travel arerea, which basically allows free movement of people. Now, what's the problem with this? Well, peopleople who were in charge of the homeome office at the time that this individual came in. The Home Secretary was Suella Brverman, the immmigration minister was Robert Genick. Now listeners will know both those two politicians were obviously consonservative ministers, but they have now joined Nijl Farage's partarty. So they themselves are in a slightly tricky position. Now The other thing that we've seen in recent weeks and months is the rise of this party which until recently, most people were only kind of vaguely aware of. called restestore Britain Low, who is himself an MP, a former member of Nigel Farage's party He fell out with Farage in rather spectacular fashion. He's quite rich in his own sense. He has set up an alternative to reform, restore Britain difficulty for particularly reform is that for the first time they face a challenge from their right the past, Nigeer Farage has been in a position where he has not had a party on his right which has allowed him to sort of move towards the center to try and make himself more appealing to voters who perhaps be slightly nervy of backing reform. But here comes Restore Britain, on his right, presents quite a lot of tricky problems for him Is it up until now Nigel Farage has been able to basically own that part of the spectrum Now with restore How is that playing out that tension? How is it playing out in terms of the rhetoric around these events? there O almost an escalation, they're competing with each other. Absolutely. I mean, if you just take this case of the Belfast attack, you see Rupert Low on Twitter this week pointing out Rathman was homeome Secretary Genick was immigration Minister and pointing to a parliamentary answer that Genereick gave just a month after the suspect in this attack arrived in Britain, where he said the UK had a proud history of supporting refugees and the UK is proud to have welcomed Sudanese nationals. Lowe says, Genereick appears to have been perfectly happy to welcome, as he put it unvetted Sudanese men of fighting age saying that it's scandalous. What checks were made, what was done on criminal records and saying that they,' talking about Generic and Bravman, were welcoming young men from a brutally backward country that has an entirely alien culture completely incompatible with our way of life. We're dealing with And there is just a hardening on all sides in order to be able to compete. Yeah, it's like it's an arms race as it were, in terms of sort of rhetoric and that makes it very difficult for the government to respond. Tell us about that. How is Labour, how is Ker Starmer responding to the situation? I mean, it's hard. you know, you have to and he is calling for calm We are united Palling for calm determined to restore order supportort the police and all those on the front lines and ensure that justice is done. He was saying there was absolutely no justification for you know the violence and the disorder that you saw in Belfast. But you know the question is to what extent does he need to engage in the substance of The immigration debate around this. Who is this man who came in, the attacker? Is there any past history? What checks were done before he was given leave to remain? Those are sort of kind of important policy questions which the government needs to sort of stay on top of as it were so you don't allow sort of online conspiracy theories or allow a narrative to take place that is very tricky for the government makes them look that they are not in control of the borders, which is what I very large number of voters genuinely think. And all of this is playing out. all of those responses from parties are playing out at a time when By election in Makerfield is very much, you know, people are out campaigning for it is that a factor in all of this? I think quite a big factor. It's a really important by election. There was a poll last week which had Andy Burnham, who obviously wants to win that election so he can potentially challenge Sakkir Starmer. on forty nine percent of the vote. It had reform UK on thirty eight percent of the vote and restestore Britain on eight percent. What does that mean? If Rore Britain wasn't there, that race would be enormously close. And it could be that when that result is announced, the only reason that Burnham wins is because the vote on the right been split So that in a way explains in part, I think. the sort of pretty griiszly rhetoric that's goinging from the right on this. They're both appealing to voters who are legitimately very worried about migration. are attempting not to be outflanked by each other on that issue. and that's a problem I think. Will it make it harder for Andy Burnham that labourr aren't able to come out and say anything particularly strong on immigration? Will that cost him vote You know what? weirdly, I don't think it will. I think Labour and he has lost those votes. already. But I also think that you know a lot of this rhetoric is really being done without the context of Northern Ireland and the very unique political circumstances in Northern Ireland. You know You saw Naomi Long, who is the Jice seecretary in Northern Ireland saying that really she put it like this, she said that people who would have struggled yesterday to find Belfast on a map We're trying to cement this sort of hatred in the community. And I think she's got a point. On that, there has been a number of politicians actually have talked about almost foreign agents, foreign powers big influential people abroad who, you know, as you say, P might not have been able to find Belfast on a map until a few days ago who are now wading in and seem to be influencing the debate Tell us about that? Well, I mean, obviously with the Henry Novak case, you had some pretty inflammatory comments by the US Pice presresident JD Vance now He has not said anything about this as of yet, but you know, you've got Elon Musk who, I think has arguably helped boost restore Brit He is an admirer of Lupert Lowe, and you know a bunch of sort of influential politicians on the right feel very strongly about this intmeigration debate, both in the US and in Europe and are making political capital out of it, as you will, which is problematic for the government in one sense, but on another sense They don't mind it weirdly because the one thing people in this country don't massively like is being told what to do by in the US. So in some senses, they don't like the diplomatic row that it creates, but it's not entirely unususeful for them. Yeah. I mean, it has been interesting sort of seeing even people like Edwina Karria, a former conservative minister coming out saying there's a conspiracy aoot here. Somebody is fermenting. violence on our streets and they don't need much excuse to do it This isn't know a whooy British problem. this is people from outside who are stiraring things up. Yeah. Does that sort of become an easier political answer I think it does. I mean, but also I think, you know There are some really legitimate importance of national security and political arguments to have around this because one of the issues that's been thrown up around this case, which we put low raises is What do we actually know about some of these people that are coming into the UK through small boats and other means? And is there a national security arent around all this. Now Jonathan Hall, who's the independent reviewer on terrorism said this morning, he said We haven't had a terrorist incident in the UK linked to someone who arrived on a small boat or illegally into the UK. and know the terrorist incidents we have has been homeomegrown terrorism, but you think that is a possibility. And that is something the government needs to think about that. So that will increasingly become part of the political debate around immigration, the idea of national security. I mean yes, absolutely What sort of pressure is Kirsteimer under in order to come up with sort of appropriate response to Belfast I mean, this isn't the first government that has struggled with the question of immigration. What will people want to see from him ultimately what the goovernment needs to try and do. and this is really really hard. is to show that the numbers of people crossing in small boats, which is the most visible sign of irregular or illegal migration is reducing. And that's been something that the government has recognized right the way through. There is a direct correlation between support for parties on the right like reform and restore and illegal immigration being top of the headlines.. When it drifts down the headlines, their support drifts down, when it comes back rises. So you know They just need it not to be part of the national debate for other issues like the economy, for the NHS and education. Those are areas where reform and restore have less to say and that helps both main parties, both the Conservatives and the Labour Party. But you know as we've been writing about and talking about for years, tackling that small boat crisis and making a meaningful difference to the numbers crossing pretty intractable At the same time, this wasn't a case of illegal immigration. This was somebody who'd been given Leave to remain, his case had been looked at. They thought he had a genuine reason to be claiming asylum And in terms of Legal immigration, as far as we know, the numbers actually have gone down massively and yet there isn't a political dividend from that. People aren't benefiting from the fact that numbers are so plunging Yeah. I think you have to sort of disaggregate it a bit. and it's fair to say, yeah, he was given Lave to remain but why was he given leave to remain? He was given leave to remain because he comes from Sudan. Now you, the situation in Sudan is beyond awful the moment of the civil War. and you know it is simply not a safe country to send people back to. So if you do manage to make it to the UK by whatever means and you apply for asylum from Sudan, you're going to get it almost certainly. If you look at the numbers of people who are sent back to Sudan, I think it's less than ten percent, quite significantly less than ten percent. They have no idea how they do it. But if you look at the sort of propaganda from Rore, they just say, we'll send them all back So it's tricky. Yes, he was there legally, but I think it still does play into that sort of wider debate on what you do about migration does seem like This incident following on soon from the Henry Novak case I all of that despite the fact that Overall immigration figures are massively going down It's just it's such a tinder boox It's really difficult to see how politicians navigate all of that and it does feel like This isn't the end of these incidents for even this summer I agree and ye it's a silly thing to say in a way, but Yeah know, the government is at the mercy of events something entirely out with can spiral out of control. enormously quickly. and I think it's worth making the point