Future of Iran Negotiations and Legacy

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story. I'm Mandine Ranner. In a week, when you'd think we'd be used to excruciatingly embarrassing leaks of private chats between politicians This one still managed to cause a storm Trump told Netanyahu during the call You' Fing crazy According to the journalist who broke the news of this extraordinary shouting match in what's being described as the worst phone call ever between the American president and the Israeli Prime Minister Donald Trump seemed to snap telling Benjamin Netanyahu Everyone hates you. If it weren't for me You would have been in prison by now Donald Trump used the phone call to force Netanyahu to back off bombing Beirut. becausecause the Israeli military push in Lebanon was placing Trump's negotiations with Iran at risk realized the war in Lebanon that Netanyahu has been escalating over the last few days would undermine what he is trying to do with Iran would undermine the deal that he's trying to get, and he decided to shut it down. Will the Israeli invasion of Lebanese territory continue regardless Is Netanyahu trying to scupper the deal with Iran? And what could Donald Trump's increasing frustration with it all? mean for the global economy story today Will Lebanon because Trump Here's a wrong deal The country has been through worst times in its modern history However, it is a transformative time for Lebanon because This is the first time in almost half a century that Lebanon is seeing a weakening of the influence of Iran in the country That's Lena Katib, a Middle East expert at the thinkink tank Chatham House She was born in Lebanon and it's a country she follows closely This is coupled with an opportunity to pursue stabilization once the dust settles and Lebanon had had veryer few opportunities like that in the past half a century when it comes to its relationship with Israel. So although Lebanon now is obviously facing an immense challenge because it' a caught between Israeli interests and Iranian interests There is also a historic opportunity for peace further down the line We know that a ceasefire was in place a few months ago. The fighting has continued regardless. Give us a sense of how bad it's been. Do we know how many people have been killed? how many displaced? What is the situation like now in Lebanon The estimate is that around a fifth of the Lebanese population is displaced, and that is because of continuing fighting between Hezbollah and Israel mainly in southern Lebanon. and Most of the people who are displaced have come from the south and obviously headed north, but also people who live in the southern suburb of Beirut, which has a significant presence for Hezbollah And these people you know have nowhere to go. So a lot of them have been camping on the streets in Beirut and elsewhere in the country. The lucky ones have been able to rent temporary housing But I would say the majority are really struggling and all of them would like to go back to their homes and their properties It's a situation in which the Lebanese government finds itself unable to meet the needs of over a million people, almost a million and a half Well Lina, last night, Donald Trump announced that he'd spoken to Benjamin Netanyahu And H unusually to Hezbollah via some intermediaries, and that really is a first for an American president As a result, he said that Netanyahu was calling off a raid of Beirut and turning his troops around How accurate is that description? I mean, did we think troops were headed to Beirut? Does this mean there will be no attacks in Beirut. What are you expecting Before this news was reported, a lot of people in Lebanon were worried of a repeat of nineteen eighty two, which is when Israel invaded Lebanon and Israeli troops reached Beirut However, it was not likely that Israel was going to replicate the scenario of nineteen eighty two. What was likelier were attacks on the southern suburb of Beirut or perhaps attacks on Hezbollah targets inside Beirut itself. And the announcement by President Trump that he managed to stop an Israeli escalation on Beirut It doesn't really change a lot because it actually just means the continuation of the status quo in which the fighting in southern Lebanon persists. Andin just paint a picture for us, you know, describe the map how much of the south is currently held by Israel. It varies. There is a declared yellow line by Israel where it has expanded its occupation of southern Lebanon. The estimate is around five to eight percent of the area of the south now being under Israeli control. Of course, beyond this yellow line, Israel has recently expanded its presence a bit further north But again, the situation ebbs and flows and this is a kind of scenario that has happened before in the sense that Israel can enter areas and then tactically withdraw. So I would say a safe estimate at the moment is around eight percent to ten percent because of the new incursion. But again, the situation is very fluid So eight to ten percent of the country Lena, some of the sites that they've recently taken have quite a lot of historical significance. whether it's Bolf at Castle, an old Crusader castle or Tar, this one of the oldest inhabited cities. Tell us a bit about those places and what the situation is like on the ground there now Here is a historical city, one of the most important cities in the history of Lebanon. coastal city with archaeological sites. Beaufort Castle is in a strategic location because it overlooks large areas of southern Lebanon, including the heartland of the south, the Nabotia goovernorate and Nabatia city Beaufort Castle had not been under Israeli occupation for twenty six years because the last time it was under occupation was during the nineteen eighty two to two thousand period when Israel occupied southern Lebanon So seeing it back in Israel's hands is meant to be a blow to the morale of Hezbollah, sameame with attacking a city like Tyr. It's more about kind of psychological pressure and attempts to lower the morale of Hezbollah and its supporters than a strategic move in a military sense. The Israelis are saying that the area of the South they're taking over are these are Hezbollah centers Is that a fair description comes to the areas that Israel is trying to occupy or has already occupied, unfortunately, all of those areas have been places in which Hezbollah has operated from militarily So in this war, I always characterize Lebanon as being caught between Iranian interests and Israeli interests. Israeli interests here are about Israeli security because Hezbollah is the one that began this war. It is the one that began attacking Israel on the second of March. And Israel has responded to protect mainly its northern areas which border Lebanon from these Hezbollah attacks. And Hezbollah justifies its own attacks on Israel as being for the sake of defending Lebanon from Israeli aggression. And in doing so, Hezbollah gives itself permission separate from basically whatever it likes in southern Lebanon has sent its fighters across the South to launch missiles, even from private properties of people, So a lot of the villages that Israel is currently occupying are places that had witnessed intense activity by Hezbollah firing weapons, movement of Hezbollah fighters, and even storage of Hezbollah weapons What do you think the Israelis are trying to do? Because you know as you said, they held Baufort Castle, for example, for many years and it was seen as a very costly operation. What do you think the strategy is here? this temporary distraction tactic from the Iran negotiations where they don't really have much of a say Or is this potentially a land grab? Is it's talk of a buffer zone What do you think the end game is for them Ultimately, what Israel is trying to do is secure itself And what is happening in Lebanon is very much part of the bigger standoff between Israel and Iran And when we look at the situation from this wide lens, we see that this is not just about Hezbollah, but about Iranian proxies in the Middle East at large and Iran itself and the threat that it poses to Israel's security. And of course Historically the biggest and most powerful proxy for Iran in the region is Hezbollah. And Hezbollah happens to be operating in Lebanon, which is right next door to Israel. And so what Israel's trying to do now is eliminate the threat that Hezbollah poses. But that is not an easy task to accomplish because Hezbollah is very much entrenched and has been well equipped in Lebanon And Israel is trying to use different tools to put pressure on Hezbollah politically, as well as socially. And this is why Israel has, for example, occupied parts of southern Lebanon. Part of it is also to try to get the supporting community around Hezbollah to have a political change in Lebanon that removes the political legitimacy of Hezbollah And Lebanon has actually been gradually but quite steadily moving in that direction. So for example, the Lebanese government, took the unprecedented step of banning Hezbollah's military activity. Now, of course, Hezbollah is not complying and we can see that because it's continuing its attacks on Israel. But the fact that the Lebanese government took the step shows how much the status quo in Lebanon has already shifted. It used to be a country dominated by Hezbollah politically, that is no longer the case today And so I see Israel's occupation of these areas in Lebanon as being a tactical move to have a significant and historical shift in the political dynamics in the country As you say, the new government in Lebanon doesn't seem as dependent on Hezbollah politically, but they haven't been able to decommission them desespite that. Is that a potential problem for the future. The problem for Lebanon is that even though the government ultimately wants Lebanon to have peace with Israel. And although the government is serious when it says weapons should be monopolized within the Lebanese state and no other actor should possess weapons. and this basically means the disarmament of Hezbollah Hezbollah itself is not complying with the Lebanese government's orders or wishes, and that is because Hezbollah receives its orders from Iran. Hezbollah is purely serving the Iranian interest, not the Lebanese national interest. So ultimately, the situation in Lebanon is very much tied to the bigger picture of Iranian influence in the Middle East. Iran doesn't want to lose Lebanon as a card in its hands. and that's why Iran is constantly trying to say that there cannot be a separate ceasefire agreement for Lebanon So what we are seeing at the moment is both a struggle for Lebanon's sovereignty, a struggle by Iran for the survival of the Iranian regime and by extension, Iranian influence in the Middle East. oming up hasas a furious phone call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu solved the crisis in Lebanon Could it make it worse What happens next across the region In just a moment My name is George KQrills, and I am Washington correspondent for the Times George, to understand what's happening in Lebanon, we really have to look at the state of the peace talks in Iran. You have to sort of zoom out to try and make sense of it. ust talk us through what's been happening in the last few days. It really started just over a week ago when Trump suggested that a peace deal with Iran was close and this rhetoric continued over that initial weekend. But there was no deal that was forthcoming And it stretched on and Trump kept saying a deal is close, a deal is close. And the Iranians would say, yeah, maybe it's close, maybe There was no breakthrough And then, just as it appeared that they were itching towards a resolution that would see the Strait of Hormoz reopened, would see gas prices coming down again Israel stepped up its offensive in southern Lebanon and threatened to bomb Beirut which would be a big escaalvation And Iran said to the US, No, you can't do that. That's a violation of our cease suppire and we're going to basically start attacking ships again in the strait of horm moves Obviously, there was a huge fear in the White House that the process that they had said was heading towards a deal was actually now spinning out of control On the Israeli side, is this Benjamin Netanyahu who isn't a part of that process who isn't part of the talks Is this him trying to influence events? That's what the White House thought clearly. Benjibin Netanyahu is facing his own elections in the coming months, and he is under pressure to basically appear as hardline as possible. Because in Israel, there's a lot of upset and anger over the fact thousands of Israelis are still displaced from their homes in Northern Israel because of attacks by Hezbllah from southern Lebanon And you have people like Nftali Bennett, who's an ex liqud politician Who is basically kind of framing Netanyahu with Weak for failing to resolve this issue. Bear in mind, Israeli public opinion is generally in favor of the Iran war. It thinks that the current state of play is not good for Israel's long term security interests. So all the pressure of Israeli public opinion for basically a resumption of the attacks on Iran a resumption of hostilities with Hezbollah Meanwhile, in the US, all of the public opinion and pressure is going in the opposite direction So bear in mind President Trump campaigned to end all the forever wars. There was not much appetite for further interventions in the Middle East after Iraq and Afghanistan And yet here we are with a war in Iran that has not only kind of been condemned by Democrats, actually, it's led to rifts on the rights of American politics as well. and you have influential with people like Tucker Caston and the broadcaster, Marjie Taylor Greene, the former kind of MAGa looyalist who have spoken out against it and basically broken with Trump specifically over this issue So that's why I you see this kind of meltdown on this call between Trump and Netanyahu, because essentially public opinion is going in two separate directions in Israel and the US. That's so interesting. That's such an interesting dynamic. So there's pressure on Netany Yahu to look tougher. To keep the Iran war going, there's pressure on Trump to do the opposite and to look like he's not being influenced by Israel As you say, that all led to this phone call, which sounds like it really blew up. Talk us through it. what was said? Well, it depends on which version of events you're believing. I mean, if you look at the kind of public commentary on the call from Trump and Netanyahu themselves, it's much more em mooali and kind of softer in tone. But then there was this extraordinary piece by Axios, which is an Israeli outlet and a very well placed Israeli jem that's called Barackrafid quoting U. S. officials, saying that Trump resorted to expletives, basically to tell Netanyahu You're fucking crazy What the fuck are you doing And He's not the first president too swear at Netanyang there's a long history of U. S. presidents getting so frustrated with the Israeli Prime Minister that they kind of turn to profanities But it is telling and it is pretty remarkable to see a Republican president use that language against an Israeli Prime Minister even if in private There is a portion of the reported conversation in which he says, Everyone hates you. everyone hates Israel, which It does sound like it's quite influenced by that sort of Tucker Cls and sort of these former MAGA influencers who have really turned against Israel. Is that what's happening here? it's become a dynamic within the Republican Party. and Trump is a very astute politician and he's well aware that there is a portion of his supporters who are really upset with the Iran war and they think that the US. has been dragged into it And I think that's a reflection of that. And I think the other interesting thing that came up from that call was that Trump reportedly said to Nfanyan who, I've kept you out of jail And that's a reference to the corruption charges which are hanging over Netanyanu So for the Israeli Prime Minister, the elections coming up are not just about his political survival. They're about his personal liberty becausecause there is this lengthy saga over, you know, bribes basically played for positive coverage. that could see Netignan who eventually imprisoned if he is removed from office. So The fact that Trump raised this issue and said, I've kept you out of jail. shows again how aware he is of the domestic politics in Israel and him kind of using all the pressure points that he has over Bibi as he's called And he really has campaigned to have him pardoned and has appealed to the Israeli public about that too. As you say, there are two very different versions of this phone call Wh do you believe? Well, it was striking that there was no denial from either the White House or from the Prime Minister's office in Israel So I think that fact alone tells you a lot. even in the comments afterwards where Trump characterized the call as very good natured, but he said that Netanyahu had agreed not to bomb Beirut. which was different from how Netanyahu kind of phrased the call and He basically tried to suggest that Israel would do whatever it wants and was not going to be told what to do And again, that's important for him domestically because in Israeli politics he will be seen as weak if he's seen as counting to Trump's demands. so Again, that's another example where public opinion between Israel and the US is so divergent right now you're seeing it translate into these spats between Netanyahama and Trump In the meantime, there hasn't been bombing of Beirut and we had been told that that was imminent. So Donald Trump seems to have his victory. On the other hand, there is more bombing in southern Lebanon after that phone call, so I suppose Netanyahu will be able to tell his audience that he's still in control. There are still talks going on between America and Lebanon What do we expect to happen next? Well, we've been waiting for now really I mean, what's on the table? It's a sixty day ceasefire between the U. S. and Iran where they defer all the main decisions over Iran's nuclear program to that kind of negotiating period. So it's basically kicking all the contentious issues into the long grass On Lebanon, I mean for Trump, you know, it's about not doing anything that would lead to a resumption of The Iran war in terms of Iran fully kind of closing the straight Mz and attacking commercial shipping and all the rest of it And Iran has said all along. The attacks on Hezbollah part of the kind of wider truce, the ceasefire that's in place at the moment and Trump wants to avoid You know, that that's these fire breaking And George, how worried should we be by the fact that Donald Trump in the last twenty four hours has also said that he's getting bored of the whole peace process of negotiations with Iran I think it's a reflection of his attentions, fan. You've got to go back to the context of when the Iran war began, and that's just after the raid on Caracas, when U S. special forces basically abducted Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and it was all over in a matter of hours and saw the power of the U.S military then And I think he kind of applied that to the rest of the world. Meanwhile, roughly the same time, the Iranian regime was brutally killing tens of thousands of protesters But the U.S. didn't have the assets in the region, so they had to kind of move all the assets over there. But in Trump's mind, he was kind of thinking about Venezuela, how quickly that was done and maybe he thought Iran could be resolved just as quickly, but you know, now Answer proved a protractic conflict his initial kind of call to arms the Iranian people urging them to overthrow The regime hasn't materialized The kind of shia clerics in charge of Iran still very much hold their grip on the country So You're in this this kind of standoff and yeah, Trump is a pretty impatient guy and he wants to move on to the next thing And clearly, the Iran war There is no easy resolution to it, otherwise it would have happened by now Given the impact on the global economy, you we're all watching the Strait of Horm Mooz, Wondering how on earth that's going to be resolved and how long that problem can go on before it starts to be felt by everyone across the world. What happens if Donald Trump really does lose patience with negotiations? Yeah, I mean, gas prices are now averaging over four dollars a gallon in the US, which is seen as very, very high. inflation House risen back up again and this was really one of the priorities, one of the main issues that got Trump reelected was high cost of living in the US So this really is impacting voters and I think it's translating into a really challenging set of midterms ahead for the Republicans Because, you know, Americans are feeling the pinch of the Iran war. Whether Trump cares as much as securing his own legacy and his place in history. Well, that's up for debate. I mean, if you look at the things that he priority areing at the moment For example, the construction ofver And it almost ared Trump, a triumphal arch in DC. the kind of celebrations of the two hundred fifteth anniversary of Delaration of Independence by having a cage fight in the White House rebuilding the East wing of the White House as a kind of golden ballroom You know, these are all projects that I think Trump is more interested in. and would like to turn his attention to an Iran is really a distraction from this kind of legacy building It was George Grills, Washington correspondent for the Times. and before that you heard from Professor Lena Kateeb from Chatham House If you'd like to know more about the conflict in Lebanon or the situation in Iran, do listen back to some of our recent episodes on the region. And time subscribers can find more of George's work at the Times. com. The prodroducers today were Dave Creasy and Collleette Fountain. The executive producer was Edward Rummond, and sound design and theme composition W by Mal Letto We'll be back tomorrow. See you then