Preparing for the future of work

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story I'm Lou Jones. There is Growing concern about young people. with nothing to do The new report commissioned by government says almost a million sixteen to twenty four year olds are not in education, employment, or training opportunities for them A shrinking Cultivating a lost generation, it says Now onn top of the many many factors feeding into this, should we be worried that the giddy adoption of artificial intelligence tools in the workplace could mean even fewer jobs for young people going forward. A man who's been banging on about AI induced job losses for years, the open AI boss Sam Altman recently seems to have reversse ferreted If even the AI barons don't know what's coming What is a young job seeker or career curious student to make of all of this In Seattle, in the U S, one dad has built a tool to actually help his teenage daughter and others an AI resistant career path The story is that AI is really taking the first rung of the jobs. Think about reallyally almost how every professional career develops, including my own, right? You know, I was a trainee initially when I joined into the workforce Priimary job at that stage would be Basic analytics, reconciling spreadsheets, drafting standard documents Now these are exactly the tasks where AI is already faster, it's cheaper and it's accurate enough Babbot Bualan worked in tech for twenty five years in companies like Microsoft And he's written for The Sunday Times about how he advises his daughter how it changed her career choice Finance sounded like a safe answer and that was just because that was what my friends were doing But I think once my dad started showing me, it was a lot of Building models and spreadsheets Which was fine, but it wasn't exactly what I was imagining in my head story today. How to prerepare for the AI Job Apocalypse Really, it all started with one of the many dinner table conversations that we were having. Theia was sixteen at that time and she approached me to ask me about what she would study once she gets into the university because she was really thinking about a career in finance To be honest, I didn't have a very clear answer I knew the answer was complicated, looking at how the technology was progressing So I went back into the drawing board and I tried to build the answer that I wish I could have given Tia the first time she asked that question So I sat down with seventeen of the most credible reports on AI So I looked at the World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report. I looked at Goldman Sachs Labor Displacement repeport I looked at Mcensey's Global Institute, Stanford Human Intelligence. You know, even anthropics own economic research on labor. And then I built a framework. I scored thirty five carriers across nine categories. Us the data and the insights that came up, I scored the carriers on a scale of AI resistance. So a score closer to one hundred percent really meant that the role depends heavily on things AI cannot replicate Closer to zero meant that the role is mostly things AI is already doing very well today. That actually led to a framework that is now a free career AI guide that I developed. And to my surprise, when I look at the analytics today, it's been downloaded by thirty thousand households across one hundred twenty six countries. And that's in a matter of almost four to six weeks s It got released. And before we get into actually what it found, Thea What did you think When you had originally gone to your dad with this question about what should I do with my life and study? what careers am I go into? And all of a sudden he comes back with this enormous framework based on reports from McKinsey and Google and Athropic, and he's put this much work in well I don't know, you' bit taken aback It was kind of overwhelming at first, just with thinking about all these different types of things like career opportunities and Coege applications coming up. att first I thought he was kind of overreacting, which is kind of fair. but I think Once we kind of slowed down and he started showing me the real numbers and not just kind of like the opinionated pieces and this real data like I started to visualize these entry level jobs in the things that I was cllaiming to spend Th years plus in a university at that were probably disappearing. And I think that kind of hit home and that was a strange feeling and it wasn't that dramatic thing that I was Kind of watching a door close on something Before I was deciding to walk through it. Does that any sense It absolutely does. Babbeth, why don't you wal us through what you actually learned from this framework? What did it tell you in terms of some of the jobs that actually you would recommend to somebody So the research kind of really clarified that the roles most at risk are those involving high volume templated production like routine analysis, standard document briefing, or drafting repeatable code F first pass design kind of work, anything where the task is at heart, the same task done thousands of times with minor variations, right The roules most protected really sit in four broad clusters that kind of surface. So they are healthca education treds. and the senior end of the law But what unites them is really not the industry. What unites them is the portion of the work that depends on what I call the four human superpowers, right, which is the emotional intelligence, creative vision, physical dexterity and ethical judgment The point I really want parents to hear is that No carerier is finished. The actionable parts of every career, the automatable parts of every career, they will get automated. Bars requiring human judgment will become even more valuable. And the question for your child really is It's not which industry to pick. It is which version of the job within whatever industry they are targeting sits closest to those four human capabilities that I pointed out H And is that if you took all emotion and desire on the part of the job seeker out of the equation and you just looked coldly at it. I mean, is there a single job or industry where you think this is a job that requires those human supervisor as determed them and isn't necessarily easily poachable by AI automation Starting with the philosophical answer to the question, I would say the carrier that would be most favorable to the child would be the carerier that they are most energetic and passionate about, right? Yes. good parental answer. But having said that, there are obviously some careriers, especially healthcare, for example, they really stand out in terms of human interaction, the human cognitive ability, the Aspects of empathy, the aspects of care But there is still variation in terms of what you would expect a surgeon or a GP or a consultant to do versus, you know, somebody who's very early in the career, you know, somebody who's practicing or somebody who is stepping into the medical profession. Skill traits, you know if I look at my My data here, skill trades actually score between eighty two and ninety four percent and This is the result that actually surprised parents most when the Sunday Times actually published a piece, right? For thirty years, we were told that a route to a good life was a university degree, right? I do not want to discount that. We actually hollowed out apprenticeships We told a generation of bright young people that working with their hands was sort of beneath them. I think that was the wrong map that we handed over So definitely electricians, plumbers, HVAac engineers, carpenters, marine engineers These are actually six figure careers in many parts of the world right now. and with full order books. Anyone who's had a plum around recently will know that they do earn a lot. But isn't part of the problem that sort the entry level of a lot of what we usually call white collar jobs are the susceptible bits. No one's suggesting that AI is going to automate the role of a high court judge, but they might, somebody who is a very junior lawyer on the first rung of the ladder at a law firm Absolutely. I think the simplistic way to and absorb it is lookingooking at the career, especially at the entry point in terms of things that are repeatable in nature, As I said things that could be easily replicated by another human. that could easily be templatized and could be easily replicated by AI as well. That is one of the aspects that I'm also stressing apart from looking at repeatable tasks is also prepare ensure that as you step as a young professional into the workforce Portfolio shows clear depiction of those four human capabilities, right? Things that you have already done before stepping into that door into your university degree. So somebody who's Targeting law for example, they should actually be doing mock trials. Somebody who is targeting international relations Join UN and actually do some field work takeake that as a proof point going into the university to say how you've been on the field, how you've been on the ground and had that human ability and touch to be able to accomplish the objective and the task that you're set out for Coming up, what did Far actually make of her father's research and What effect, if any did it have on her future career choice? for a moment We're discussing what artificial intelligence might mean for job seekers. Babet, you're just explaining this framework that you've devised for your daughter to kind of help her understand what kind of industries, what kind of roles might be affected by the onward relentless march of AI a before you raise this with your dad, looked at this framework, what kind of areas were you actually were you even worried about this issue? Were you thinking? I need to think about what the future holds in terms of artificial intelligence before I pin my colourors to a particular mask? It was not very centered in my head, just like AI as a whole and thinking about a career outcome. I was very centered into going into a finance pathway. And that was, I think, particularly because J the area I grew up in was very like STEM focused. and so a lot of people around me were doing STEM related or finance related careers. I think especially at my age, at fourteen years old when you're kind of thinking about what career you want to go to, it's very much like What are my interests? What extracurriculars I do, right? And classes am I getting good grades in and stuff like that? But I think I started more to think about AI as a possible like factor to my career outcomes, especially when I talk more with my dad about it. I kind of looked at AI less as just a tool that I use to help me create quizzes for my homework and more as something that I could use as a resource And I think that is kind of what shifted my understanding and helped me use AI as a tool in helping what career pathway could possibly work for me. It's so much to put on young shoulders, I guess, to be thinking and worrying about all of this you know in your teens. But did then going through that framework with your dad, did that change what career you thought you might actually try and pursue Oh yes, for sure. I think like my dad talked about, we did have a lot of dinner table conversations, right? And especially like As a young person going through a college application process, it was very much finding out what path worked for me. along with the idea to whether it is sustainable to AI. And Like I talked about before, I was very pivoted towards doing finance. I got into a lot of extracriculars. I took a lot of business related classes but I think it was Understanding that framework kind of helps me realize that Finance sounded like a safe answer and that was just because that was what my friends were doing. But think What I actually liked was the idea of being good with numbers and being in a room where decisions were made. And I didn't really know what a financial analyst did all day. I just kind of thought that that was the cool answer. But I think once my dad started showing me, it was a lot of builduilding models and spreadsheets which was fine, but it wasn't exactly what I was imagining in my head. And I think once I was able to put those building blocks together and have that framework, we were as a family able to create more of a pathway into going into international relations because I like that human aspect and having real conversations and like remember kind of analyzing diplomacy as a potential like er options and I was like, diplomacy can't be outsourced by robots dad. And just having those real conversations really did help me create that pathway that I think made most sense for me And does that make sense in this context if is international diplomacy actually quite AI proof? Or you know maybe we could imagine a world in which Cat GPT is resolving the Iran conflict quicker than Marco Rubio and the Iranians you know, the reason why I scored the AI resistance for the different carriers is to give a depiction of Where those carriers stand with respect to impact based on what we know today. And that's the reason why I wanted to give a framework on which to base your decision making as a household, which is basically the four human superpaskers. And once you lay those four human superpower skills that are required for a work like diplomacy, where You know there isn't previous historical reference to the kind of conversation that you're stepping into. If you look at the example of what is happening today with Iran or even in Ukraine, there isn't a lot of user manuals on how to have those conversations for lack of better terminology, right those kind of things will take a lot of time for AI to really penetrate. Now I'm not saying that it's never going to happen God forwid if you have you know multiple similar incidents where decision making has been done and led to a positive outcome, machine is going to learn that, right? And then we can very well get similar kind of information from AI But having said that, International diplomacy, there are a lot of moving pieces. It requires a lot of human ingenuity in those conversations. It requires a lot of understanding of each other's positions to be able to put that hand out collaboration, a lot of that does not have a precursor history and that would necessarily shield it from AI where it comes to conversation and dialogue and decision making, especially on things that have not been replicated in the past, I think there is still an opportunity for humans to be bringing their unique capabilities in the forefront So it sounds like international relations is a good choice in terms of an AI resistant career, but it's sort of lucky that Far that is an area and a career path which he seems interested in. I mean, what do you say the person who doesn't necessarily want to think about how AI resistant their interest is. Maybe they're somebody who has a very analytical mind and what they want to do is a job, which is looking for patterns in data That all seems so eminently Aiable, if that's the right phrase Would you warn them off that and say, no, you need to think a bit more coldly about it, you can't be so emotionally attached to what you might want to do with your life You know, I would start by saying first of all and let me make this as bold and italics as possible I want households not to fear AI. In fact, I'm asking households to embrace AI So in terms of carriers that households are looking forward or children are looking forward, I would say two things. First of all Foccus on the preparedness. So become fluent in AI and develop the parts of yourself that AI cannot really copy, right? If you look at the data, workers with genuine AI fluency, they earn fifty six percent more than those without it in every field. That is according to Price Waterhouse Coopers That wage premium has actually doubled in just twelve months. Now, that is not a knee skill I would say that is the new literacy But I would actually start a few steps back So if you are Ch is ten to twelve. I would recommend that you build the foundation. Th tend to be curious because Curiosity is really the hardest quality to automate, right? And if its children isn't the age group as what Tia was when we started this conversation sixteen to eighteen and ready to make those real choices hard at where those four human superpowers are kind of converging in the careos that they're considering, right I think the conversation ' the most important aspect that a parent can have with a teenager this decade. Yeah You're seventeen now. Are you telling me there are other seventeen year olds who are having this kind of conversation at home? or do you feel like a lucky but outlier I feel like it's kind of mixed in between my friends. Some of my friends do have these types of conversations at home and are considering career pathways that are AI sustainable, but I think some people are just very focused on the things that they're passionate about. And that's not saying that even if you're passionate about something you shouldn't consider if it is AI safe, but I think It's really just a scope of how much you understand AI and its influence. But I think especially my dad, he was very focused on making sure this was something that I did consider and I'm very grateful for that So there are two sides of this coin. One of the reasons why this conversation is not very prevalent in households, at least in the area that we are in is because those same kids are seeing their parents in the careriers that are now not too resistant for AI being very successful They don't really want to question what their parents are doing and the choices that they want to make in line with what their parents have done The second thing is reallyally the flip side of it, the parents who have been really successful are having doubts about Wh their child should not be going in the same path because they have found great success working in finance, they have found great success being in the IT sector. When I speak with them, And I help them understand that it's not about the entire career Again, it's the aspects about the carrier which are automatable. It is the bottom run of the ladder conversation immediately shifts from Hey, we will see when we reach that bridge when Air really impacts to have this conversation to. No, we need to start having the preparedness right now and start having those conversations and the mindset shift right now But also so much of this is shifting so quickly. So do you have to keep updating your analysis? Because even if we just look at what the various AI company bosses have been saying about the impact of this on the jobs market? I mean, Sam Altman, take one example, the founder and boss of Open AI. in twenty twenty three, he was saying jobs are definitely going to go away last year speaking A meeting with the Federal Reserve, he said that roles like customer support jobs would be totally, totally gone as AI improved. And then On in May this year It actually seems like he's rode back. He said he was quote pretty wrong about AI's economic impact. And there are other examples of that from other tech bosses as well Have they been overregging the impact and are walking it back and do we need to do likewise Do we need to update the research? Absolutely. And there are significant capabilities that I'm trying to add. I realize that there is a need for very region specific research because area definitions, how you get into those areriers, the pathway to get there could be very different depending upon which region you are in, right The second question is about how the narrative and the messaging is shifting in the industry So one thing I would say is from my experience and again, being inside some of these big conglomerates and seeing it at a very close proximity is I would advise households to take the messaging that you're getting from private organizations with a grain of salt. I mean, there are a lot of motivations and nu answers behind those messaging. What I would really urge them is to spend this time Having those conversations and driving towards preparedness. For AI preparedness, you need to be hustling a little bit more than the traditional path that our predecessors have taken to let a technology evolve for seven to eight years. We don't have that much runbay Because there is a counterargument to all of this that it will actually sort itself around all of these jobs and industries. My colleague Marureine Karn, who's the economics editor at the time, wrote a piece recently about the Jevs paradox from the nineteenth century where he pointed out that even though we had the invention of the steam engine and people were expecting use of coal to less and off because actually all of a sudden the energy production that you get from it would be a lot more efficient, actually use of coal shot up. So just as In this future, we'll have lots of AI tools in the workplace. That doesn't necessarily mean fewer jobs or even fewer entry level jobs. It just means everyone's working capability is supercharged and that can stoke demand. So in that world, do we even need to be thinking about, well, do I go into this industry or that industry? Because even if you go into an industry which according to your framework might be very easily automated by AI. there might be aspects of that industry where there is a need for a human and just the tools that automate a lot of that work just make your role as the human even more important in that Here is what I would say that every doom headline is missing today. The worldld economic forum actually projected that one hundred seventy million jobs would be created globally by twenty thirty, alongside the ones that are getting displaced The net picture is not really collapse. The right way to understand this really transformation, right? Transformations, as I mentioned in the article as well, always reward the families that are coming prepared, right too understand them early. So If you understand which nuances of that careers will cause the most dramatic shifts And the characteristics and the attributes that will prevent that shift from happening if you choose that career, that will definitely extend the runway for those households and the careers of the children Finally, just for both of you Did you expect the reaction to all of this? when you embarked on it, when you were having these conversations there? Did you think? I mean the amount of comments on the Times website, the views, the people talking about this, I've seen this article pop up on my In. I read fifty million times Babet, you must be inund dated with emails by anxious parents now. Have you become the sort of guru for people? I just think you he'd tell us, Babbetath, what do we need to do It has gone beyond my wildest imaginations, to be honest. It was just one conversation of a father with a daughter that I just felt that other households would need to also listen. But I've got responses from places I never expected. I mean I've emails from families in Pakistan, in Nigeria, in Brazil, in Vietnam you know, parents in tiny villages in Ireland that I can't even pronounce the names correctly. And from you know really senior partners at city law firms, professionals, educationists really connects them, I feel is the same, right A child really has come to them with a question about their future And they realize that they do not have an honest answer. it how things going with you? How's your college application going G Good, it's going very well. I'm committed to the American University in Washington, DC for international study. so I'll be there in the fall fabulous. We'll have a wonderful time. and thank you both for making time for us. I really appreciate it. It's been a pleasure. Thank you so much. Thank you for this opportunity That was Babbt Bualan and his daughter Theia. You can read Bubbet's original article and actually a follow up as well he wrote for The Sunday Times over at thetimes. com if you've got a subscription I've got a link in the show notes of this episode. And if you've been thinking about AI might mean for your career, for your children's career, for your grandchildren's career, Maybe your young person stuck in this conundrum at the moment. Let us know, the story at thetimes. com. is our email address That is it for us todayay. The producer was Collette Fountain, the executive producer was Edward Drummond and sound desesign and theme composition was by malless attem. I'm Luke Jones. See you soon