National Ramifications and Future Outlook

From the Times and the Sunday Times, this is the story I'm Luke Jones Yeah, it's a massive, massive thing that's going on at the moment suppose. You could elect the next Prime Minister? Yeah exactly It be that around seventy five thousand voters in Lancashire might force the change of Prime Minister I think we're pawns in a chess game. get bin them in here. And it is off down to London and pronestly I don't like being a porwn in a chesscave for Labour or anybody else. You can't have escaped the news that Andy Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, is fighting a by election on the eighteenth of june in Makerfield now former MP there graciously resigned to try and help Burnerham return to Parliament Coming an MP would be step one in Operation Rpllace K Stara much like the train journey from Manchester to London. Burnham's political journey south is also risk of severe disruption sudden cancellation In the local elections, reform did very well in those parts. Despite some controversial posts by their candidate being unearthed, Nigel Farage is throwing everything at the race. Even Elon Musk is getting involved backing Restore Britain So what will happen? story today The Makerfield Bialection Makerfield and the people of Makerfield are about to make a decision that could change the course of political history Darl Morris is a presenter on Times Radio I am Northern, he by his own admission, is very northern sometometimes we have to sort of build up by elections a little bit and sort of sell their importance. This by election needs no introduction. The stakes are absolutely enormous And you feel that in the air when you're there have the character of Andy Burnham staking a claim to a place in Westminster making no secret of his intention to potentially one day be prime Minister. You have reform versus labor, the political kind of battle of our times And I think there's lots of stuff in play as well that are sort of interesting subplots to this Wh election, which is How online it is, several of the characters in this by election have sort of come ac croer or have been dogged by their online lives. You have the dynamic of restore Britain to reforms rights who have been very successful online. All of the stories of British politics are playing out here in Nakerfield with this potentially massive consequence. And just remind us why we're having this because you mentioned how Andy Burnhams there staking a claim to be Prime Minister, the reason the last MP went they fell under a bus is because they made a deal with him basically Yeah, we're having this by election because Josh Simmons decided we were going to have this by election. Josh Simmons is a labor MP. He was elected in twenty twenty four Before that, he was the executive of a Labour think tank, a sort of labour adjacent think tank called Labour Togher, famously founded by Morgan McSweenie, famously the vehicle that propelled Kast Armor to the leadership beforefore he became Prime Mister. And you might remember the story a little while back where it was revealed that Labour togetheret had commissioned a report to look into the backgrounds of some of our colleagues of the Sunday Times And Josh Simons was serving as a junior minister in the government when that story broke and he resigned, saying that he was naive, he should never have commissioned that report. All the same he carried on as a member of Parliament, but in recent months clearly has done a deal of sorts with Andy Burnham Andy Burnham, of course, as the mayor of Greater Manchester, cannot be the prrime Minister. He has to be a member of Parliament in order to challenge Kirst Aarmer in a leadership election. And we'll get into how that battle's playing out in a moment. but first justcribe Make afield for I've never been, Darl. I've not lived. What is it like? Yes, ye exactly. The first thing to understand about Eicfield is it isn't actually a place. It's just the name of it because weve made this whole thing up It's a fgment of your imagination link. It's the name of a constituency, Mcfield. And it's a grouping of towns just south of Wiggan So you've got Ashon, Mfield, Ins Mfield, Clatt Brge Orl, Hindley, a sort of grouping of former mining towns. on the border with Greater Manchester and Lancashire and Merseyside And it is a sort of classic northern town, lots of red brick terraced houses. Each of those bits of town have their own sort of high streets. Most of them actually, I've got to say thriving actually, they seemed really, really busy with lots of like independent cafes and bars and restaurants and shops and things like that. F fewer of those kind of aape shops and Turkish barbers that you see in towns a lot these days. It's a lovely little place that is right at the sort of crosshairs, I think, of a country trying to sort of find its feet. Its identity and its purpose, I think And people at by elections like to obsess over the demographics of seats to try and think where it might nudge voters. I mean, we describe Makeerfield as well Ver simple It is ninety seven percent white British. ninety seven percent of people identify British as their main identity Also High levels of employment in comparison to the national average. You've got home ownership higher than the national average. Economic activity matches the national average. I've got to tell you being there, it's a nice place. It isn't one of those places that you would a sort of traditional kind of red wall understanding, those kind of tropes that we apply to a lot of these former mining towns in the north west of England as being sort of a bit left behind Meerfield's doing quite well So let's get into the actual by election that's looming over us then, obviously Andy Burnham is the front runner, I think that's fair to say or one of the front runners. If anyone who's been living under a rock, who he? So Andy Burnham is now the mayor of Great Manchester. He has had a lifetime in politics. He was the member of Parliament for Lee which is next door to Mcfield. He served in government. He was in Tony Blair's government and in Gordon Brown's government. He was a chief secretary to the Treasury, culture seecretary. He was heavily involved in the Hillsborough in Inquiry during that period. He was a health secretary as well. and during the Corbyn era of the Labour Party leadership. He stood for leader twice in twenty ten and again in twenty fifteen. I think I am a different voice in the campaign. I do bring a different perspective on things I represent the seity where I grew up and I think I've got an ability to speak to people who have lost faith with labour. and after that decided to retreat from Westminster and put himself forward to become the mayor, the newly founded position of the mayor of Grea Manchester. And in that role as his politics has what might be described as Ernemism become clear If you ask Andy Burnham What is burnamism He would point you to Manchesterism And In a way, I think that Manchesterism and this sort of ideology has been thrust upon him rather than him kind of carving it out for himself. When he became the mayor of Greater Manchester The city region was thriving already. There were several key characters, Howard Bernstein and Richard Leees as well, who were sort of two leaders of Manchester Council, who'd very successfully forged this sort of political ideology that was built around Heavy investment in public services that's sort of wrapped around encouraging enterprise and foreign investment. R? You sort of piece those two things together. That's Manchesterism and it has been hugely successful The Greater Manchester, generally speaking, has booked the trend in terms of kind of growth and prosperity and wages and job opportunities and all those sorts of kind of metrics that we sort of understand as being success. it's booked the trend in a country that's really struggled with those things, right So Ady Burnham has come along as the mayor of Greater Manchester. And I think he sort of adopted that as his persona, as his political ideology. He's also been on a journey in terms of kind of his personal brand as well, and youll remember during the COVID pandemic, the way that he challenged the government. Tier three lockdowns affect the lowest paid people in society. People who work in pubs, people who drive taxis, people who work on the doors in pubs. These are the people that Westminster politicians traditionally ignore But we are not going to do that here. You know that's when he adopted that whole King of the North thing and he started to dress differently and talk differently and you F Perry. Ls of Fred Perry, yeah, absolutely. And use social media in a different kind of way as well. Hi, it's Andy. day one in the office. Well actually not yet in the office because I've come to the city centre to speak to people who've been here overnight sleeping roough You know, quite a of people are sort of keen to point out that he lost two leadership elections and has been in government. But I think the Andy Burden of twenty fifteen to only twenty ten is very different to the Andy Burnham that we find in Nakerfield today. Maybe people don't realize just how much of my old constituency is in the Makerfield constituency. I've represented heard of this constituency before. and it's been brilliant being out in West Ly tonight because Ive met a lot of people who are helped in the past like Laura I work with And when you went around Makerfield, did you find that he was popular when you spoke to people? There's two sides to the coin really, as far as Andy Burnham is concerned and how people feel about Andy Burnham. I met a woman called Jamie who is a new mum. So I'm a teacher at the minute on maternity leave and so a beautiful little baby in the mom. This is Lya. Hi La. So yeah, I feel like a lot of my personal look She had a daughter with her who was just a couple of months old And she was talking about feeling a sort of pinch in her life and how her priorities have changed. I'm really struggling at the minute and I'm trying to do enough research because I would never not vote I really want it to be informed and I want to do the right thing as much as I can She said that she sort of feels like she has different priorities. to Andy Burnham. And you hear that a lot actually. When you sort of speak to people, there is definitely this sort of niggling feeling that Andy Burnham is doing this for himself, that he has a grander plan. I've always voted Labour always, but at the moment I kind of feel like his priorities are not what I prioritize. The whole thing for me was the carbon system clean system clean system that you put in Thankk you And you know, he spent so much money on these signs then all of a sudden these signs have being taken down and it just kind of feel that what are his priorities? you know? He's been quiteplicit' sort of as explicit as you can be without literally saying I want to be the Prime Minister about that, hasn't he? I' sorry, I don't know if you can hear the. Can you hear the rin Oh yeah is the full experience of being in Greater Manchester and Y, you hear this a lot from people who sort of make this argument that they are a bit concerned about what his priorities are. And we don't hear this very often, but she was quite kind about Kiss Armor actually. And if Andy Burnham is sort of setting himself up as the protest to kissed armour She'd picked her side on that. Would you like Andibvent to replace kiss armor Would you prefer to keep kissed ar Yeah, I think I would. yeah, I think I think he's not the best, but I also don't think he's the worst What about the flip side that you had You have a lot of conversations with people who really hate. Labour very frustrated with the kissed armour, but Andy Burnham stands out as being a bit different. I spoke to one woman who was the mother of a family of five, again struggling. Everything's just gone up at the moment. We used to be able to afford to go out for meals You know, go for days out, but now we just seem to be doing less and less just I'm shopping blking charity shops now. J everything's just gone up and we're just really struggling at the moment. Her daughter's boyfriend was campaigning for Andy Burnham And had this kind of experience where he'd been subject to racial abuse But Andy Berham actually messaged him to say, you know, I'm really sorry what went on. and so he just seemed like a really nice guy to be honest. It was really telling how she talked about this as being Burnham versus reform Rather than labour versus reform. I think it's just because labour's won so many times around here around Makefield. I think that's probably why, but I think a few people have spokke to actually M Auntie who's eighty. She always used to vote for RM labour and now she's could turn to reform. Why is that? what's that? I don't know I didn't like asking her because she'd just swear at me I'm not sure. An example I think of the sort of Burnham brand. He's gone to great lengths to achieve this, standing apart from the labour brand. And I think that you see lots of posters of his knocking about the place and leaflets knocking about the place, and none of them have labor on them The plack cards and the posters just say vote Andy for us and then they have the animated version of his face on them So he is quite clearly at pains to separate himself as a completely separate entity as a separate brand So on the one hand you've got Andy Berdon, who is sort of shunning the Labour brand and playing this sort of strong local card And he is taking on Another person very rooted in this community, another local guy who is standing for reform. What kind of a battle will Enamism labour have with faragist reform? By all accounts, it looks very close. The story at theimes d. com is our email. Maybe you have a vote in this by election or live in the wider area and have thoughts. Let us know. We'll have more from Darl coming up. ar, you're taking us on a tour of Makerfield as we all excitedly await this by election with huge national ramifications as described. You mentioned how the other front runners are reform and their local candidate, this guy called Robert Kenyan What do we know about H? what are his local credentials Yeah, Robert Kanyon is a Local guy who runs a plumbing firm in Mcfield and he was reform UK's candidate at the general election in twenty twenty four, and he's kind of been like right the center of kind of reform politics in and around W' in A makeakafield for a while And again, you bump into people and the amount of people who you speak to people and the amount of people who know him or know his dad or have used his plumbing firm or went to school with him. It's just really, really striking how kind of rooted in their community both of these main characters in this by election are. And it's not just reform that you've got, there is as well, Rupert Low's partarty Restore Britain, a kind of challenger to their right of reform who are also making inroads in that part of the world with their candidate for Makefield, Rebecca Shppard. There has been a lot of chat about if you are someone who wants to Right wing, who do you go for Yes, it's very much on people's minds here. We're used to talking about the Conservative partarty and reform being the sort of main challenges for the vote on the right But increasingly in British politics and very present in this b election is Rore Britain You had an early poll that put labour and reform pretty much neck and neck about forty three percent for labor, forty percent for reform And restore Briton were on seven percent in that poll. So when you're talking about a margin of error of three percent, seven percent could be a real decider. So I was kind of keen to understand from people who were reform minded if Rore was sort of in their view really, and how they reflected on the possibility of a split To understand that, I spoke to a guy called Andy, Not Burnham. Not Burnham, no different Andy. Wh was tied up his bike outside a shopping centre in Ashton in Makefield. F of all y. My name is Darryl. I'm with Times Radio Motion answry on the anals He said that he was reform minded. had been perhaps quite swayed by Restore Britain. Obviously I've been a bit brainwashed with Rore because you know, Rupert Low came to the place and all that. you know, it was really busy when he was there they're all following him as a Messiah, I suppose. think he was quite taken by Their much more sort of hardline approach on immigration. He's more about getting rid of the illegals into rather than people who have valid passports and workking with visas and all sorts of things. So immigration. That's a big factor, isn't it? That's what everyone's going on because that's where we believe all the money's being wasted. Andy is a member of a social club in Ashton that used to be a labour club And in recent years, it has shared its labour credentials and just become an independent club and Restore Britain have made that club their sort of de facto headquarters. And they've been very present. Roring there every day. L looks like the base for them We're getting stick to that a bit basically, because we've just been overrun with the people who want to know this area u tnt the eighteenth of June and they' not want to know us after that. So theyre clearly trying to sort of create as much of a presence as they possibly can and quite literally reclaiming spaces once occupied. by the Labour Party. They have done a quite a good job it feels of sort of carving out a position for themselves to the right of Nigel Farage who has had to play a different of sort of game, Nijl Farish has had to build a coalition of people, hasn't he? And he's been quite explicit in rejecting Tommy Robinson's advances and wary of losing those people who might be put off by this sort of extreme end of the sort of rice of British politics at the moment However, in the last twenty four, forty eight hours or so, there's been a lot of reaction to the murder of eighteen year old. Henry Novak And Nigel Farage has taken the opportunity, I guess, to make a point about this. All the values and standards of living in a free country. Everybody is judged equally before the law been trashed and thrown away. And you know, the way that Nightl Fari has reacted to this could easily be perceived as concern from him about being outflanked on his right We've seen lots of protests. and actually those protests have brought together Nijl Farage and Tommy Robinson Tommy Robinson has been present in some of those protests, which is kind of interesting. That's the sort of overlap that Nigel Farage had been for a long time tryrying to resist And that resistance, I suppose would have created a bit of a gap for Ristore Britain and for Rupert Low However Andy, who I spoke to, was very alert to the prospect that that split in the vote might help Labour in this by election. I know a restore a vote's goingt be a labour vote because it's taking votes off or I don't know I just there's got to be changes. There's nothing happening at the moment, is it And actually you speak to people a lot in their field who are re minded. And if you bring up Restore Britain They like them, they're inclined to vote for them, but they are really thinking through. potential consequences of that. What is the debate happening to the left of Andy Burnham? Are the greens making much of a play here Yeah, the Green Party have had a big debate themselves about whether they should even be in this by election. Caroline Lucas, the former leader of the Green Party, suggested not standing a candidate. Zack Polanky said they werent to do that. they were going to stand a candidate. That didn't go very well. Chris Kennedy, who was the original Green Party candidate, stepped aside what he described as personal and family reasons. He has to apologize for sharing social media posts which described an attack on ambulances run by a Jewish charity in London. He described that as a false flag The new Green Party candidate Sarah Wakefields is standing but I think it's probably fair to say they are not giving it there all. We saw them in the Gorton and Denton by election throw everything at it and I think there is a sort of conscious stepping back a bit from this by election for the Green Party Tking about problems on social media, the reform candidate and what he in the past had put online has been a massive story in the build upp to this by election. what actually happened and as it had much of an impact on his campaigning Yeah, Robert Kenyan has been subject to a sort of near constant drip of revelations from old social media posts including lewd comments that he sort of made and supported A about Carol Vorderman Vordermans asked for an apology. that's kind of rumbled and rumbled. CoVID skepticism suggesting Russia had the right to annex Crimea post that people have been describing as quite explicitly misogynistic Also, one contribution to an online forum where he hinted at the possibility that maybe he'd supported remain as well. I mean the sort you know sort of Yeah, exactly. what a plot twist. abbsolutely. So it's been very present. I have to tell you It's not the sort of thing at the forefront of people's minds there is this sort of feeling that maybe for somemit's a little bit kind of baked in. People are voting for Reform UK out of a sense of kind of real frustration that the status quo isn't working But with the margins as tight as they are sort of three percent potentially between reform and ani Burnnam at the moment Is there enough people Women in particular who will feel put off enough by this to do something different with their vote. I mean, it is the sort of thing that in a by election with such high margins, make a difference? Yes. Responding to all of that Danny Kruger, who is a reformant bee for East Wiltshire, he described what Keny put on social media as inappropriate, but did say they were the private comments of an ordinary man Thinking how this all shakes down then, Darl. It's not just a by election, as you said, there's also this question of Mike the man who wins this Andy Bernam possibly go on to successfully challenge Ker armor What do you think it will come down to when people are in the ballot box? Are people thinking about those big national questions or are they thinking about what the local MP for Makerfield might be able to do for them. I think they are thinking extremely hard and deeply about all of it I think they are very aware of national ramifications. I think there is a genuine appetite to give a Labour partarty the government kst armour kick in And you know what's fascinating about this by election is that everybody on the ballot is offering that, right? Everybody on the ballot is making that same argument about Westminster not working. Let's change things You have people's Online lives influencing how they thinkin and vote. You've got the stories of people's online footprint running through this by election too. You've got Rupert Leow from Restore Britain continuing to punch their weight. Andy Burnham, much more online as well, by the way, than most leading politicians. you see him seemingly answering criticism and you would hit him back. ' daily updates I think there is a lot of the sort of stories of our times swirling around in this dialection and peopleople I think at the moment are trying to digest it, digest how they feel about these characters and digest how they feel about what comes next in British politics. I think they feel the weight of the decision that they are going to make And they're thinking about it very carefully It feels like it's probably at the moment Andy Burnham's to lose because of his personal popularity, but it is incredibly close And I think the one thing that is consistent though, and I can say if for're absolutely certain is that you can smell the demise Kest Amour and his government in the air in Makerfield. It feels like you go there and you are at the scene of the end of his preremiership Lgely because everybody's making that argument, but the amount of people that you speak to who are just not sold on him and want to use this as an opportunity to tell him so. is everywhere In total, there are fourteen people standing in Makefield, so in the aim of fairness. We should point out who they all are. Jayake Austin of the Liberal Democrats, Count Binface for the Count Binface Party, Andy Berham for the Labour Party, Dan Clark for the Libertarian Party, John Dyer, who's an independent, Ed Gemmel for the Climate Party, Paul Gould, who's an independent, Alan Howling Lord Hope, the official Monster Raving Looney Party Kenyan Reform UK, Robert Powell, who's an independent, Rebecca Shepd, Restore Britain, Sarah Wakefield, the Green Party, Peter Ward, join EU and Michael Wyin Stanley for the Conservative Party. We all know what they will be doing on by election night What will you be doing now I'll be in the room. And they are sort of quite exciting moments, aren't they? C declarations. And you can very often feel like you have a front row seat to a moment of history And so I'll be in the room again for a moment where we could very well see Westminster politics, change with the reading of a result in a room in Wiggan abulous Dell, thank you so much Thank you Dar Morris You can hear him live on Times radio every weekend evening PM Also, we mentioned the murder of Henry Novak in this episode. We will have a full episode about that tomorrow The story at thetimes dot com is our email. Maybe you're voting in Makerfield in a couple of weeks time, or you're from that part of the world and have thoughts. Let us know what you think. the story at thetimes dot com That is it for us today Tod's producer was Olivia Case, the executive producer was Kate Lambll and sound Design and theme composition was by Maaliseta I'm Luke Jon See you soon