Analyzing the Spielberg Box Office Outlook

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Now streaming on Hulu and Hulu on Disney plus for bundle subscribers It is Wednesday, june tenth The obsession around town this summer, pun intended, is all about young moviegoers bringing them back to theaters for movies like Backrooms, Obsession, Scary movie and more. How Hollywood can better appeal to this important demo About a month ago, I did my annual focus group of high school kids on the West side of LA. You can find that on the PUC website in my newsletter And it reveals some deep skepticism about movie stars and legacy franchises like Marvel and Star Wars and excitement about emerging properties like Minecraft and big filmmakers like Chris Nolan and Greta Gerwig In general, the kids were pretty savvy about movies and how they're being marketed to in their entire place in the media ecosystem Kevin getetz, the test screening gurer and film researcher. He saw that focus group and probably got a little annoyed at my lack of scientific rigor in picking five kids from the West side of LA to interview So he did his own survey of two hundred Gen Z moviegoers across the country. He came up with his own results That's what we're discussing on the show today Kevin Gest is here. He's got a new book called How to Score in Hollywood and a podcast Don't Soot the Messenger. And we're going to get into what's going on at the box office this summer specific factors that appeal to young moviegoers and what Gen Z ultimately wants out of movie theaters. From the Ringer and Puck, I'm Matt Felany and this is the toown Okay, we are here with Kevin Getz, who is founder and CEO of Screen Engine and a returning champion to the town. Welcome back, Kevin. It's great to be back, Matt. Thanks for having me. How's the summer going so far from your perspective The summer is looking good. I mean, look, it's up thirteen to fourteen percent from last year. And it's very interesting that things that are unfolding before us. Now, are you going to sit here and tell me with a straight face that you predicted obsession would do two hundred and fifty, three hundred million worldwide He no What did that movie test Well You know, I can't talk about individual movies. Sure. Okay. but well or not well or well well. We are now seeing something very interesting happening where are A lot of new filmmakers coming into the scene who have great relevance for the audience that they're trying to reach and that audience is responding mainly through authenticity tremendous authenticity You know, Gen Z's are very smart, you know, fourteen to twenty nine year olds. Yeah, I would use the word savvy They're very savvy. I' just gonna to say that maybe I'll use the word savvy. Yeah. I mean, I'm sure they're smart too, but the savvy is, I found when I've done my focus groups, which I know you hate because they're not representative of the real world When I do my focus group of kids on the West sideide of LA, like they know shit They know filmmakers really good. They know they can smell a bad trailer. likeike they're very savvy. You know this, Matt. I think in your study, you ask for for the for the five people I confirmed it with the two hundred people that in fact, that generation hasn't seen a TV commercial likeike all year except maybe for a event sporting event But That tells you a lot about where they're getting their information and how they're being informed So it's really about relevance and alignment when stududios They know what the audience wants, but don't really understand what the audience wants They the G Z is to your point about savvy. smell it. They know it. And so uh, I'm not certainly not shitting on any kind of any and every movie has a reason to exist you know, my whole book is is is written with that in mind, which is every movie is made and marketed for the right price should make money. And my theory is that You can only do that if you truly understand the audience the get go in the beginning and how large or not large that audience is. And then you budget accordingly not the other way around and when you have to chase something because you assume it's a big property. You have to understand manyany of these movies driven by their fanship and the level of that fanship And if you look even at test screenings, you see a vast difference between how fans rate something And how fense sitters or non fans or, you know, not rejecters, but non fans rate something And the question is That fan base tells you very much how you might open in terms of the intensity of that interest and then you have to do outside studies to understand how large that fan base actually is But when you see a fan base not rally behind something in a really significant way and become like passionate advocates or like evangelists for that property you then become Oh boy. That is a warning sign that you may not cut through And that's an important, really important distinction Well, we have examples right now of two different kinds of success stories where backrooms, clearly, that IP meant something to the core audience and they showed up on opening weekend eighty one million dollars domestic. then second weekend drops off seventy percent So that's one kind of fandom. and then we have It's a great example. I'm sorry. I just want to add to your stats there if I may on back rooms before you go on to the the other one, which is fififty six percent of your audience is under twenty five And eighty six percent of your audience is under thirty five for backrooms eighty six percent So that tells you so much Keep going, the other. That's why I felt super old and awkward at the theater By myself on a Sunday night. Walkking with a trench coat? Yeah But then there's the second kind of success, which is the obsession success, which was so low on tracking, it was single digits. I didn't even bother to give a prediction because I was like, oh, this is going to be a single digit horror movie. Oh, come on, really? I know, I know. Craig Craig has the audio. We're going to save it for the end of the year. would just throw it back in my face But then Opens to double that It then keeps going up And this is the kind of movie where The young audience adopted it as their own. and became advocates and started sharing and back rooms started it from the get go They started from the get go. And then once the fan base petered out The drop tells you what you need to know about The fans, you're exactly right. It's a wonderful example and they are not the same movie. I mean even though seventy seven percent of the audience for obsession was under the age of thirty five forty percent was under twenty five versus the fifty six for backrooms. You can see though, the trend that obsession played older tremendously older and also without talking out of school about testing Obviously, that movie must have had a very strong definitely recommend. because the defefinite recommends score it screenings is correlated to the opening weekend Meaning how much how much it ultimately performs on top of the opening weekend? It's the legs of the movie. So for example, if you open to ten million dollars And your your screening score was twenty points above the norm you're likely to do over a three times multiple. So you're going to do thirty million plus in the life of the movie If it scores ten points below the norm You may be looking at only a two point one multiple. I'm kind of making these up because there's ranges, different genres, et ccera. But it's only twenty one million dollars. Now you and I both know That's just the box office number and all the ancillary that follows that is based on that opening as well So that's why test screenings are so bloody important because says the guy who does test screenings. I'm not a fool I know I know. No, I believe in what I do. And the reason I believe in it, Matt in large measure is because of this. I'm not trying torture filmmakers. I'm trying to say there is actual science to suggest that if you improve your definite recommend substantially You are going to have more money at the box office. Well, you probably love this generation of YouTuber or young people raised on digital platforms because they seem to be much more in tune with audience metrics and how the content performs. You know, you hear stories about these filmmakers looking at eyeballs and whether they're distracted and trying to maximum maximize interest. I mean, that's sort of antithetical to the previous generation of Aour coming out of Sundance sccrew you. I know what's good. You don't You must love that I do love that. and I also love the fact that and I think you've said it, I've heard others say it as well that we're sort of reliving the seventies in some weird way when reennegade filmmakers came up like When if you heard The last twenty five years. and I don't know how long you've been doing this, Matt, but I'm going on nearly five. About twenty five. yeah. Okay In the beginning of your career, did you hear like young filmm people going for the filmmaker in your generation? It was not a thing because the fandoms did not proliferate online do today. You had to be in an AOL chat room or something like that in order to do. then, brother. Absolutely. So what I'm saying now is young filmmakers are becoming stars themselves. Those filmmakers have an importance now Now I know you've been interested because you asked it in your survey and I confirmed it. Like Christopher Nolan in the mainstream U movie dumb or film dumb is a king. I mean, he is someomebody that Even young audiences feel is a brand I mean, he's much more of a brand than Homer's a brand. Let's face it. But my point here is beyond Nolan Your polling also suggests that Gen Z is a little bit Wishy washy on both stars and name filmmakers beyond the AA list. The right star in the right role has great relevance when they feel that a star is overexposed when they feel like a star is just taking something to for a paycheck There seems to be pushback. againg, authenticity M ash plate. Th things are very much in conflict. Yeah, One of your survey respondents said of Sidney Sweeney, She seems to never say no to anything One of your respondentse of Zendaya Jaynee Johnson and Kevin He They all play the exact same role every time and we're sick of seeing them Survey after survey suggests Nnday is the only female movie star under forty who matters. Yeah, so I don't believe that at all. and I have to report on peopleeople that are outliers all the time That doesn't mean that you pay much attention to it you know, Zentes clearly is one of the most bankable redible Yeah, the drama doesn't to a hundred million dollars without her It doesn't get to a third of that. And let me tell you those little guys, those out there who are younger than we are called Gen Zs, seventy seven percent of the dramas' audience was under thirty five. forty four percent was under twenty five So to your point and now what I'm confirming is come on She's still the biggest probably female star certainly of her generation right now. Now Spielberg, let's talk about Spielberg because What I loved about the younger generation is this great respect for Steven Spielberg and for some of the older filmmakers who have a legacy and a body of work. And I think that is so fascinating because They sort of get his popularity, they respect it and they understand it now Will they show up Yeah, that's the bigger question because you also reported that they were, quote, highly skeptical of his contemporary output and associated him with their parents Correct, But why wouldn't they? I mean, I know, but is that going to translate into butts and seats? Well, in the case of Disclosure Day, which is, I'm thinking, getting very, very strong reviews It feels to me as though There's going to be a strong portion that will show up based on my tracking The movie looks to be quite successful and I think you think so. It's going to get out of the thirties and open in the forties. I believe so U o God, I should never have said that, but yeah, I do Listen, we go out on a limb here. people if if we're wrong, we're wrong. I'm going to will it to happen. But by the way, if it did in the thirties again A respectable number, right? It's not it not Not for Steven Spielberg. I think he's disappointed thirty something opening But no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You have to look at the generational, as I said, relevance. and the alignment again Remember, yes, their parents will go, but that doesn't mean that they say won't go with their parents. 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Featuring award winning craftsmanship from the decorated team of artisans and heartfelt performances from the ennsemble cast. IGN raays there will never be another show like it for your final Emmy consideration in all categories, including outstanding drama series What is Gen Z feel about Marvel right now The answer to that question could say a lot about the next five to ten years of box office Well, let me say that It's a polarizing narrative. There are certain folks that think that There's been an overexposure and Then I also think about the cultural impact is on a from a Marvel or from even a Star Wars Because if you think about those legacy brands and you kind of have to look at them almost together There is a reinvention Asolutely has to take place. and I'm sure they're eminently aware of that because to speak to what is relevant culturally, what means something value wise, culturally wise to Z and to half of millennials, for example. You say that Marvel understands they have to reinvent yet What do we have coming? We have an Avengers movie where they're bringing back the old actors to play the hits again. That's not a reinvention. Now, that's fair play, but let me say on that particular movie, that would fall under the other category of cultural zeitgeist. That has a multig generational affinity, that particular one. When you do some of the offshoots where you don't feel part of the joke because you weren't in that mythology, you didn't grow up or that you don't know it you feel like that's a harder one to swallow But when you're talking about something as broad as Avengers, it's going to be a huge. We missed the biggest movie of the year which is Spideran Now Spiderm Man is going to be massive. It's going to be massive because it falls under that cultural zeitgeist. Younger Z And of course, every single generation love the property. Yeah. that's why I think you're kind of wrong about the equating Marvel to Star Wars They are too entirely different Mythologies franchises, they play very different Star Wars is based on these iconic movies that are the kind of Rosetta stone of the franchise. Marvel has thousandousands of characters and there are marquis characters, but can in my opinion, be reinvented. Star Wars much tougher. I'm not saying it's tougher or not tougher. I'm saying that both are legacy brands that have mythologies And so that's why I'm not wrong. Wh where I'm what I'm trying to express is that Both to find ways in when I tested I say this because I It's been my books and so forth. When Barbie came out when Barbie was not Barbie I did a massive IP test for Mattel and And basically, I'm going to be honest with you, I told Robby Brenner The head of the u you know, motion picture and television division at Mattel. to run. And she said, Kevin, I can't run This is our biggest property I said, well It's already gone through a couple of iterations. It's not worked Unless you reinvent the DNA, which I don't think I've ever seen, you're not going to be successful. Guess what reinvented the DNA So they found a way in Matt, when I tell you that nobody wanted to see that just based on the idea of it being a movie I would be understating Box office poison So you think Star Wars needs to be barbieized They have to find coolness to those properties yet again for the new generation. Well, they literally went and got Ken and put him in a Star Wars movie and we get it next summer with Starfighter. Well, from your mouth to Godso All right, so you think Gen Z is open to Marvel, skeptical But it's not a lost cause Not at all. lost cause, but it's incumbent upon the leaders of the franchise of the brands and the IP and the overall sort of master brand, if you will, to and they understand it. I mean, come on, I'm sure they thinking about it every day of their lives is also Matt, about what I said about PR people and stars. Like there has to be a really good management of how much information is going out more judiciously planted in an authentic way. Now That requires speaking very directly to them, you know And that that is why it's so important to understand, I suppose, I guess where the The truth is on property, like where those As I said, cultural alignments Um manifest and that That's hard to do, but it's really essential When you tap into it and you can have people own something and that doesn't go for just genen Z's That could go for you know, an underserved older audience over the age of fifty five let's say An untapped white space, for example anywhere If you can claim ownership on something, people love that. People want to endorse that. People want to see, that's my movie I own that movie. I claim that movie. That's a great that's a great thing. Well, I don't know if that's going to happen with Disclosure Day, but I hope it does. You know, this Jen Exer wants to see Spielberg do well. I've got fingers and toes crossed and he's an ambassador to our business, as you know. So National treasure. Exactly. Let's just say something very real here, which is We both make a living on this business. And so I love unpacking it with you So admire you. I actually listen to so many of your and I don't listen to very many have my own podcast to worry about. But I have to say, you have a great facility and like understanding of our business. and I know you want it like I do to do well. But more importantly, what does Gen Z think of me? Don't answer that question. Thank you Thank you, Kevin. I love being on your show And u Here's to next time. Yeah, good luck with the book. Thanks, buddy Okay, today's call sheet is brought to you by Holiday Inn at IHG, the global icon you love, but with a whole new energy and comfort that hits different than before Disclosure day. This is a tough one You and I saw this movie the other night. We did not go to the premiere in New York. The premiere was in New York. Lucas went. Weirdly no party. Shame on you, Universal, No party after the Spielberg preremiere. Was it the night of the next game? Maybe they wanted to go watch the Kicks. No, but the game was long over Throw a party and Stehven Spielber for Christake Uh we digress The movie is at thirty seven million tracking according to NRG. How do you feel by that number? I mean, it's come up a little bit. It was at thirty three and then it went to thirty five. now thirty seven. I've seen some others that have it a little bit higher that could get into the forties. Obviously Kevin getz thinks it will But let's put the line at thirty seven for this one. You and I saw this movie. You liked it a little bit more than I did. Are you over or under Um, I I'll probably go over Give me your explanation. Well one, I don't think thirty seven is a huge number. So I don't think it getting into like thirty eight, thirty nine, forty is some massive overperformance. I know. I've heard some chat around town that Anything less than fifty is a disappointment for someone like Steven Spielber, But you know what's funny about that? Is that right? I mean, if you I disagree. I disagree too. He's just not the name that some of these GenX and boomber executives think that he is. And I think Universal knows it Because they have had they felt like they need to reintroduce him and he's been doing Podcasts like the reatchables. he pops up in clips on my feet all the time on podcasts I've never heard of big miss on this movie is there is no Re star. Emily Blunt is great And I love her as an actress. I'm not sure how much of a draw she is. Josh O'Connor Good actor, meaningless for box office, like a zero. No one is going to a Josh O'Connor movie. Why is not someone of any value in this movie? You're Steven Spielberg. You've worked with Tom Cruise, you've worked with Leo, you've worked with all these actors that are meaningful. Why not put a Michael B Jordan or Chalamet or someone in that age range who I know, you know, I don't know schedules and how things matched up, but like ony up, this movie only cost one hundred and fifteen million do. If it's all of a sudden one hundred and twenty five because you get a meaningful star, That's worth it. It's a fair point, but I would quibble with the He's not what he used to be. And if it opens to less than fifty, it's a huge disappointment. Spielberg makes original movies and if you look at his movies like from the just from the decade or from the lastess two decades, from the two thousands, like Minority report opened to thirty five. saaving Private Ryan opened to thirty. Ready Player one in twenty eighteen opened to forty one million and it ended up getting to six hundredars I feel like the I mean, this is hard to do. I mean, a sinners open to forty eight and everyverybody freaked out. and I understand that No Spielberg is Spielberg Typically his movies have legs. I feel like it's for an older generation. It's not going to be the backroom swarm of people. It will probably be older folks who go over the course of a month rather than swarm the movie theater weekend one. I hope so. I really hope so. So even if it's like thirty eight, thirty nine, whatever it is, His movies tend to leg out. L minority aport got to three hundred fifty eight. Is that a disappointment of a movie? or is that a success? Well, that was twenty something years ago. So adjust that for inflation and increase it twentycent to twenty five percent. Sure. so it's at four hundred fifty or something I agree with you. I think that that The expectations can't be too high on this one because it's original and because it's not, you know, I think people will talk about this movie and it will spark a lot of discussions. Hopefully it will lead to the definite recommends that Kevin talks about and have a high multiple. But I don't know. I think for thirty seven, I will also take the over This is the the Gen X in me. I'm I'm biased I would not be surprised if an underperformed opening weekend also. I feel better about its legs than I do the opening weekend. I also thought Emily Blunt was outstanding and I think she could get an Oscar nomination. I know you disagree with that. Oh yeah, I don't think so. I think it's too early. and this movie needs to this movie needs to do really well for her to be in the conversation. It can't be perceived as a miss for her to re emerge late in the year.. But the performance is great All right, today's call sheet was brought to you by Holiday Inn. They kept the global icon status and upgraded pretty much everything else fromom refreshed rooms to dining D right. It's a new day and a whole new day at Holiday Inn. book today at holiday Inn. com That's the show for today. I want to thank my guests Kevin Getz, producer Greg Horbeack, our editors is Jesse Lopez and Matt Pevck. and I want to thank you. We'll see one more time this week. Ryan Reynolds here from Mbile. I don't know if you knew this, but anyone can get the same premium wireless for fifteen dollars a month plan that I've been enjoying. It's not just for celebrities, so do like I did and have one of your assistant's assistants switch you to MintMobile today told it's super easy to do at mintmobile dot com slash switch. Upfront payment of forty five dollars for three month plan, equivalent to fifteen dollars per month required. intntro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. taxes and fees extra. Feal terms at mintMobile dot com. 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