NBA Finals Ratings and Market Impact

This episode is brought to you by Marvel Television, presenting Wonder Man, starring Yaya Abdul Matine II and Ben Kingsley See what the Guardian calls a triumph of storytelling and a masterclass in acting. now on Disney pllus Wonder Man, for your Emmy consideration in all categories including outstanding comedy series It is Monday june first. What a weekend at the box office Backrooms, the suspense thriller made for ten million dollars by twenty year old Cane Parsons based on a four chan meme and a series of YouTube videos. It opened to a crazy sounding eighty one million do domestic for eight hundred twenty four That's more than three times the previous biggest opening for that studio. And the second place movie was obsession, made for less than one million by another YouTuber, Curry Parker That's now across a hundred million domestics Obsession actually grew in its third weekend. Very, very rare to see that These two outsized hits, combined with the performance earlier this year of Iron Lung from another YouTuber, that's led to a lot of chatter around town and in the media This is a major cultural milestone in movies, people are saying. It's like the nineteen seventies all over again passassing of the torch to a new generation, a sign that Gen Z has finally asserted itself at the box office. Especially since this weekend saw a crazy drop of nearly seventy percent for the second weekend of Mandalorian and Grogu, the Star Wars movment This weekend marks a pivotal point in movie going. Jason Blum, the producer told Bloomberg this weekend. Blum's company was one of several producers on both of those big movies. I love Star Wars, he said, But twenty year old kids want something different So littleittle hyperbole going on there, but clearly something is afoot here. Is this really a monumental moment in the history of the movie business? And what lessons both good and bad will Hollywood take from the YouTuber phenomenon That's what we're talking about today with Lucas Shar, Monday guuy. It's the wild weekend at the box office and the right and wrong lessons that Hollywood will take. From the Ringer and Puck. I'm Matt Bellany, and this is the town Okay, we are here with Lucas Shaw from Bloomberg. Welcome back, Lucas. It was nice to see you yesterday. Yeah, Do you have as bad sunburn as I do after the Dodger win? We did sit in the sun and watch the Dodgers for three hours. I was so smart enough to spray myself with lotion that you did not. Yeah, I know. One day I'll learn. probablyrobably You will learn. In my old age, I have to take care of myself All right, are we in the upside down here? A third weekend of a low budget horror movie Ogrossed The second weekend. of a Star Wars movie A movie made for ten million dollars eighty one million domestic. What is going on here? Is the enthusiasm? Real Well the enthusiasm is real. Is the enthusiasm justified? I mean, I'm getting I'm sure your texts are blowing up. movies are back. We're talking about this sentiment online that this is nineteen sixty nine and easy Riders and the beginning of this a of new era of autur filmmaking where what works in Hollywood is going to just start throwing money at the next generation of Francis Ford Coppola and George Lucas and Martin Scorsese. I got it's nineteen seventy five and this is Jaws And we are now heading into a new blockbuster era of YouTube filmmakers. I am more likely to agree with the sixty nine than the seventy five. I don't think this is Jaws But Yeah. So so you're on board. You are drinking the koolid of this is a significant moment in theaters because I'm not so sure. listen, I'm happy for it. I'm just like The YouTube filmmaker thing has been a thing for a while. The low budget horror thing has been a thing for a while And a lot of these movies don't work You know, a lot of these YouTube filmmakers that come out of that world like doesn't work. And also A lot of these movies have worked to me filmmakers a couple of years ago, Danny and Michael Philippu. They were like YouTube filmmakers and they had a movie that goes to one hundred million worldwide. So it's not a totally new thing, but I do think that This is a moment that We are going to hang the trend on And The trend is real. That was a really classic mat moment where you asked the question and then answered your own question before I could answer your question Well, but no now you have the chance to tell me I'm wrong. I think it is a significant moment. I hesitate to overreact in the way that some people already have for some of the reasons that you just outlined. But Two of these small movies made by YouTube filmmakers coming off of the success we also saw with the Markiplier movie Iron Long earlier this year and happening at a time where also a lot of the sort of more kind of traditional IP there doubts about, right? whether I think the fact that it's happening at the same time that a Star Wars movie is going to do probably the worst of any Star Wars movie ever or it'll be between this and between Mandalorian and Solo the fact that you've got like this kind of concerns about Marvel and I just I think it's significant. And I do feel like Even though we have seen YouTube filmmakers suceed And I had a res you know, an editor made a good point in response to the newsletter that I wrote Sunday about like, well, what about the, you know, Isa Ray became famous for being a web creator Quint D Brun and a there's sort of been a generation of TV creators who grew up on the internet. But I feel like on the movie side and in Hollywood more generally, everything has felt like a one off where like, okay, sure, like someone emerges out of YouTube and it works. but you also have a lot of talent that tried to cross over and didn't And so having three happen within five months of each other, mostost of it happening kind of outside of the traditional system, but with support from traditional producers. I think creates a blueprint for how these companies can take advantage of emerging talent on YouTube. And for me more than anything should reframe how they think about who to work with instead of s and how. instead of chasing audience and instead of trying to sort of force a YouTuber into the Hollywood system, find a way where it can be mutually beneficial where you sort of empower the YouTube creator and the emerging filmmaker to tell the story they want to tell and then add the kind of expertise, experience, distribution and marketing that Hollywood still controls to amplify. Yeah. There's going to be lessons out of this. There's going to be takeaways that studios are going to react because it has become such a thing and so discussed and within the industry, Studios are going to start to react to this and I think they're going to react in Ways good and thatad. So I want to go through some of those potential good and bad reactions here. and not just good and bad, but also sort of the right lesson and the wrong lesson, right? Instead of making value judgments. Right. So I'll start with what I think is the number one right lesson from this, which is the changing nature of intellectual property within the movie business because everyone's like, oh my God, these are two original films. These are not original films. Obsession is an original film. Backrooms is not. Backrooms is IP People showed up for this because they knew the web series. they were intrigued by the property and they wanted to see what it looked like on the big screen That is over and over, we're seeing that these G Z titles that overperform with young audiences There is this for lack of a better word or term, there's this like for us by us mentality. young people, where if it is authentic and feels like something that is for us, young people will shop. We saw it with Minecraft We saw even though those were older filmmakers in a traditional studio movie, saw with Minecraft. We saw with Five Nights at Freddy's. We saw with these youth skewing IP plays that have worked. And same thing with Markip Plier. People showed up for Iron Lung because he was a brand And in the digital world Filmmakers. can brand themselves like never before. I mean you and others have made the analogy to different periods in Hollywood where young filmmaker types have been scouted on different platforms, whether it's Peter Churnin last week was talking about the Roger Corman movies that gave rise to a bunch of filmmakers. And then it was the music video directors in the nineties that became filmmakers like David Fincher or McG or those kinds of filmmakers. And yes, YouTube is a scouting ground But it's also a branding platform for intellectual property And that's what we're seeing here with backrooms is that this is the new IP So that's my first lesson. Do you think that If you're Neilohan, the CE of YouTube You say this is further validation of our strategy and of how important we are in culture Or do you look at it and say, man, it would be great if these movies could just debut on YouTube? No, I think the former. I think they're already doing that. They're out there spinning. among the many, many people that were out spinning this past weekend, taking credit for this YouTube was one of them. YouTube is the hub of culture. It all starts here We are where people look to discover new things and connect with the content that they love I don't think losing a movie to theaters is a big deal. By the way, Marker Plier is going to put his movie on YouTube very soon. and may even be up already today for sale And people will be able to buy it on YouTube. And then eventually I'm sure, like the traditional wind doing, it will probably be on YouTube for free. So I don't think YouTube is seeing this as a negative. I think they're seeing it as a positive I think you're right that the right lesson is that what IP you need to be looking at is changing, right? It's the same reason why Hollywood has sort of woken up to Romanticy and a lot of these other things that are appealing to kind of women under the age of thirty five in the same way that I think Gaming and finally finding the right gaming IP and the right YouTube IP is men under thirty five The flip side to that is this belief that sort of IP is dead, which I think would be the wrong lesson. R That is the wrong lesson. Or that or I guess put it another way that and I hate to say it because I do want to see more and more original movies, but this notion that like actually original, all things that are original are the future and that is everything that the studio should be investing in. And we do need studios to invest in new and interesting ideas, of course. So you don't think like legacy IP holders are a little bit scared. like the seventies, eighties, nineties IP you Y Jurassic parks, your fast and furious, karate kid, like the running man. all that stuff just looks like dinosaurs now. No, I totally think that they should be scared, but but my point is that much as rooms prove to be IP that people wanted and will probably spin out sequels and a TV show and all of that stuff. We're going to get to the end of the summer and the most popular movies are still going to be sequels and reboots and all that. like Yeah Toy story should not be worried. Fast and Furious maybe is is on its last legs But you know what's gonna probably do really well, Toy Story five. You know, it's going to do really well, Spiderm Man, you know what might do's probably going to do fine? Mions. Like Chris Melodondre from Illumination who' sitting there with his Mario and his minions is not feeling like IP is a problem. orr Pixar, which is kind of remaking a lot of their biggest movies, not feeling like IP is a problem. They just also need the new thing Like Mario was a was is a relatively new franchise for Iillumination, right? Yeah. Okay, But let me let me ask you this. We did the IP draft two years ago, twenty twenty four Among the things that you guys drafted are Star Wars, Avatar, Marvel, DC, Harry Potter Do you still believe all of those are in the top ten? Probably. Most of them, not all of them. Yeah. We're about to have a Harry Potter show be one of the biggest shows of the year. so I'm not worried about that. Yeah, I'm not worried about IP. I'm worried about some of the lesser IP titles that have struggled Like, honestly, Star Wars. I mean, Star Wars is in a weird spot right now where they tried to relaunch it as a theatrical franchise leaning on a streaming show. And the audiences are pretty clearly telling them that they consider this to be a streaming property now So there's a lot riding on the next year's Star Wars movie with Starfighter. orr that they're just not that interested in Star Wars right now. I mean, to your you brought up the running man. I feel like you're see we've seen a shift in kind of nostalgia is really going to play where You know, some of those some of those eighties and nineties or like titles might not work as well as something like Devilwaarears Prada, right or meet the Fockers. you' forre you're seeing some of like some of the nostalgia plays are now the like late nineties or even really early a movies or what people are going to want to see. Now this can change like obviously we're just a couple years away outut of Top Gun, which was a peak eighties movie, but that was such a massive movie. It's different from something like the Running Man. Yeah. Like I don't know if I would put backrooms in that top ten of IP. would you? No, but I mean even though Kane Parson is talking about a TV show, he's talking about sequels. Yeah, it's just the potential upside, you're not and look, I could be wrong, but I don't think you're like having a backrooms theme park ride. No horror IP is there's a long history hits in horror getting. sequelized and exploited to death. and they're always reliable They're not Harry Potter. I mean, yeah, we were we were talking about this yesterday. if the two of the big universal producers, right? Jason Blum, whose company was involved in both these movies and Chris Melodandry, who is going to have these two huge animated movies this year, I'd rather have the two big animated movies. You just make a lot more money from them. There's no like there's no shame at being Jason Blum obviously, but there's more money to be made in the billion dollar franchises than the two hundred million dollar franchises. Yeah. All right, so my next lesson that I think is a good one is Youth culture. leaning into youth culture. Well, what is the difference between that and like rethinking which IP? Well, they're sort of related, but that one's an IP question and another is just an audience question because I feel like there has been this feeling within Hollywood over the past ten years that we've lost the young generation We've lost them to their screens. We've lost them to the fractured media landscape And Hollywood has consistently reinvented itself through its history by appealing to young people, whether it's the Like you said, the sixties and seventies gritty movies, whether it's the teen comedies of the eighties and nineties or whether it's the Appetao stuff later on. Appealing to young people has always been a winning strategy. I feel like over the past ten years, we've gotten away from that because the perception was that the audience is getting older for movie theaters. and what we're seeing now is that Gen Z is producing its own lure for theaters. and studios should be leaning into that They should be hiring younger executives. They should be empowering More filmmakers like this taking more risks, we can get to the risk question It's kind of a no brainer to me If you look at the history, but do you think? I mean, obviously I agree with the concept that You should be appealing to young people. Do you credit like do you think that these movies came about because producers and studios were Younger people? Well, ultimately the financiers were, but yes I mean, I have a piece in my newsletter about the assistant who first found Reddit page that had the YouTube videos on it And now I think ultimately the size of the audience for backrooms would have generated interest from Hollywood It's not a coincidence that a twenty seven year old assistant att Sean Levy's compompany was the one that found this and said this is this is a thing Right. So You know, and the fact of the matter is Hollywood keeps getting older and older The people running these studios keep getting older and older and The culture, if you want to keep relevant needs to stay young So right. there's a disconnect. Or they would say that It worked as intended and the younger person at the office found it And then that led to they basically kicked it upstream to someone else who said a meeting who then kicked it upstream to the people who run the companies. And like that's how the system is supposed to work. Sure. Yes. But I think that the closer you are to the culture The better you are as a studio executive Regardless of age, I guess, do you think that the when if you're talking about these lessons, right? Okaykay, lean into new IP Lean into youth culture brring in more have more young people higher up in the ranks. Do you believe that the traditional studios, which are F more risk averse than the A twenty fours and focuses of the world will be able to absorb those lessons and execute off of them. Probably not They will probably throw some money some hot properties. and try But I do think the culture of these smaller outfits is more conducive to this kind of breakout They are closer to the actual creative community than maybe some of these other Fanchise and IP driven studios. And they're making less generally making less expensive projects which makes it easier to take the risk because oh, I'm going to spend ten million dollars on this is very different from I'm going to spend fifty or seventy five or one hundred. Yes. And what you're essentially asking is the culture of risk and will the lesson from these movies be The studios need to be taking more risks. And do think that they will take a little bit more risk. I'm not sure that the result will be what we are thinking. There'll be a lot of bad copycats is my point And Warner Brothers and Paramount throwing some money at some YouTube people and saying, Yeah, go for it, rightight I don't know. there's something about these smaller companies that do this well. Yeah. relelated to that though isn't is sort of the question of Can it happen outside of horror, right? Right? Because to your point at the outset, this has happened with horror before. It's happened many times with horror. in fact So Why haven't we seen it? like You know, I made the I made the comparison to music video directors in the nineties Eventually Yes, some those people sort of started in music videos, then got relatively small movies that were with, you know, the the kind of the omparable to the Indies of the day. A lot of it was through Nline and stuff like that, but eventually leveled up to making kind of the big big studio movies and having an interesting point of view, like when are we gonna see some of these directors that seed up with horror movies crosssover into making a different kind of movie for a big studio? Basically, when is Kane Parsons going to doar Wars? was and has been for a long time, right? sort of the film school to the film festival to the big studio pipeline, right? Like Marvel would hire people who like had big movies at Sundance or at Toronto or whatever And the Jurassic World director was a Sundance guy. Yeah Um Why are we going to see the same where yeah, maybe not a Star Wars movie given what we just said about Star Wars, but where like Kaine Parsons gets to make maybe not straight to a two hundred million dollars movie, but has like a cool idea for a fifty million dollars movie that pick a studio wants to make. Yeah. off course, but that's almost like a bad lesson because we we're seeing it with Curry Barker rightight now. he's doing Um Texas Chainsaw massacre That's IP. Yeah, but that stays within the horror lane. It does, it does, but it's branded horror. No, I what you're saying is like, is this going to be the next Sundance to blockbuster pipeline? It doesn't even have to be pre branded, right? To your point about taking risks. Risks are making something new and original and different. Like these do these filmmakers have an idea that doesn't have to doesn't have to cost two hundred million dollars can cost like fifty million dollars. It's are they Jordan Peel Or are they Chris Nolan, who was discovered in independent film and then given Batman, rightight And then became to your point about Brandon, like became a director that people go to the movies for. There will be people who go to see the Odyssey because it is a Christopher Nolan movie. Yeah. Eactly.. I think there's going to be a lot of attention. on Cane Parsons's next movie, whatever it is. He says he's perfectly content to go back to YouTube though. That's the interesting thing is now Hollywood has to convince these guys to stay within the system. I mean, I think he'll probably enjoy the checks that he's going to start getting from his movie if it grosses three hundred million dollars Um But yeah, he saidays he's perfectly content to be on YouTube and he does have a TV show idea for this. So Maybe we'll get the A twenty four branded TV show on HBO from aine Parsons. He said that he thinks backrooms would be better as a TV show and that and he views the movie as just an episode. G So is the Mandalorian He will hed probably want the next studio to let him own his movie. Yeah. We'll see if that happens. This episode is brought to you by LinkedIn As Ever invest in something that seemed incredible at first but didn't live up to the hype? Marketers know that feeling They optimize for the numbers that look great, impressions, reach and reacts But when they don't show revenue, well, that's a not so great conversation with the CFO LinkedIn has a word for that. Blls span Instead, why not invest in what looks good to your CFO LinkedIn ads generates the highest RoAaz of all major ad networks Reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. You can target by company, industry, job title, and more Bull span Avertise on LinkedIn The network that works for you Spend two hundred and fifty dollars on your first campaign on LinkedIn ads and get a two hundred and fifty dollars credit for the next one Just go to LinkedIn d. com slash the town That's LinkedIn dot com slash the toown Terms and conditions apply This episode is brought to you by FX's The Lowdown From acclaimed Reservation Dogs creator, Stterlin Hjo, the series stars five time Academy Award nominee Ethan Hawk as Lee Raybon. A self described Tulsa Trussorian whose fixation on the truth tends to create more problems than it solves Gloriously off kilter noir is an AFI television program of the Year and one of twenty twenty five's most critically acclaimed shows. The lowdown is available for your Emmy consideration on Hulu and Disney pllus for Bundle subscribers O lessons that are good and bad. We already talked about the risk issue. Just the risk taking. I'm trying to think about sort of the right lessons for how studios should interact with YouTube as a as a platform and a feeding ground. because you were you were talking about how, you know there's going to be a feeding frerenzy for all these people and a lot ofap like bad copycats. And we' already seeing a lot of these companies look to YouTube more for programming for their streaming services than for theatrical movies, right? You know, Netflix is doing deals with folks, Fox is doing deals with folks do feel like You know And I talked about this a little bit earlier, but I think it bears repeating making picking the right people and the right situation. This is not a sign that just like any YouTube creator should make your next movie, right? Find someone who has a clear point of view who has demonstrated an ability to make something. And I think more than anything, like prioritize people who are filmmakers behind the camera rather than chasing the on camera talent U That is where there has consistently been more success. Yes, some failures, but generally more success is the people who are filmmakers and not just you know, vloggers or YouTube talent. Yeah and I do think the feeding frenzy for these filmmakers now is going to extend to the studio system. And we will get the equivalent of something like the Daniels signing with Universal after everything everywhere breaks out. We will get those deals. Paramount, I'm sure wants to make a splash for their genre division. I'm sure all these studios are looking at these filmmakers now and saying, okay The floodgates are open. We can now hire these people without the risk of getting fired So we're we're gonna start doing that. I also think the other wrong lesson from this is to just mine Reddit and like creepy pasta and just goo after any other popular thread on Reddit or something and be like, great, that's a moie. Although that' isn't that already happening I mean, at least in the development circles, how many studio chiefs do you think prior to this weekend were familiar with the phrase creepy pasta Zero zero. I Googled it. you guys,m I'm clean. I Googled it this weekend. It's totally fine. But I guarantee you It's like when Barbie succeeded and they like greenlit three more Matel movies. I do think they're just going to go in and be like, great. what are some other horror Reddit threads that are really cool Yeah. There's a scary ghost in the background of this surveillance video. Let's option it. Yes. They're going to forget the fact that the reason why this movie exist is because of Kaine Parsons more than it is because of backackrobe. Yes. he was like bedwritten as a teenager and developed a personal style and like just started honing his craft on YouTube. Like that's the new film school Yeah, Big loser film schoolool What's the most annoying thing you guys have heard in the last forty eight hours about this. what's annoyed you the most? Oh God, just the credit grabs You know, the the the Interviews all weekend tweets. The Txts quietly, you know, off the record This person was really responsible Yeah. there's some people. I appreciate U the first couple conversations I had with people were like those who did not try to make it all about themselves and gave credit where it was due, which gave me, I feel like a pretty good point of view on how it all came together A But yes, the credit grabing has been been something else. I love it 's it's great. It's why Hollywood is so funny. Everybody is insecure You can be the most successful producer studio head. And you're still insecure and want your credit when your movie hits Are you at all surprised that this is the most successful opening A twenty four has ever had a little bit. You would have thought they would have had another breakout in their ten years like this and they have. they, you know, they've opened to twenty five ish you know, as their benchmark. Yeah, they, But they never crossed thirty and this is eighty. Right. But this was the whole mandate couple years ago when they got all their private equity money is that they were going to be a mid tier studio now. and if you're a mid tier studio You need these kind of breakouts and they saw what they had. They were advertising the hell out of this movie. Yeah. They were advertising on NBA, which is not typically a form for this. Well I saw a trailer for it months and months in advance. Yeah. they knew what they had. likeike you might have even seen it last year. They saw the same numbers that that everybody saw on the YouTube stuff and the fandom around it. So they're treating this as IP. Right Smart. More importantly, perhaps most importantly, will you see this movie? Eventually, I saw it, man. You can do it. Yeah. I lookook, I am on the record. I'm not a big horror movie person. I generallys not Gory though. There's a couple of moments but it's not Gory. Well it's not about the gore. But like I looked, I went through this with weapons where everyone raved about weapons. I felt like I had to see it to be a part of the culture, did not have a good time I can acknowledge that they're still making talent. It just was not a world I wanted to spend two hours in And so but that's like missing kids. Everyone's an adult here The question for me is going to be whether I go to see it in a theater or whether I wait for it to be on HBOax This is my your goal for the next week is to do it and you can report back All right, thank you. Thanks, Mat We are back with the call sheet. Craig, donon't tell me you are on the Kicks bandwagon here in the NBA Fals. You have such a hatred for the Kicks right now. I think they're very likeable. and I honestly this is very likable NBA finals. The Spurs and the Kicks, I think are great liable teams. I don't know. I don't like it. Th thingsings are working out too well for Timothy Chalamay It It does it's annoying. Its too much. He's got to have his team win the NBA finals as well. Well, I mean, the Kicks haven't been to the finals in like thirty years and they haven't won a finals in fifty years. So it's not like they' cares. I don't know. I like it better when Jim Dolan is the biggest villain in New York. And all of these long suffering N celebrities like Spike Lee and Suzie Esman talk about how long it's been and Ben Stiller is bitching on Twitter. like It's just it's just right with the world when that's happening. Yeah These are all your neemmeses winning. Ben Stiller, Dolan, I guess Salime David Zzo, donon't forget David Zazlov is theick Yeah, sure. It's a huge year for Dolan. Shere and the Kicks. I know. I know. I was at the Shere this past weekend. G venue, but come on. the Kicks like it's just better when they're losers. No way, whether you like it or not, the Kicks are liable. Okay. So let's talk about the ratings because last year's NBA finals went Seven games, under pacers And still was the lowest rated non COVID NBA final since two thousand seven. averaged ten point three millionars. viewers, small markets, not a surprise there The Kicks clearly are going to juice those numbers. that Plus the Nielsen out of home bigig data stuff that we've been talking about for a year They're going to get some decent numbers. The question I have for you is How much up Are the ratings going to be for Nicks I think it has a chance to be the biggest finals since COVID And I would say It'll be closer to the The Warrior Celtics finals in twenty twenty two is the biggest final since COVID. I think it has a chance to beat that. And what were those numbers? twelve four. Yeah, I think so too. I mean, obviously a lot of this depends on whether it goes seven games Let's say it goes six games, you know, five or six typically the average. So I think if it goes six games, let's set the line at twelve million. and I will take the over. I will take the over to. I think the Kicks are a massive draw, huge market It's a story that they're in their first finals. And then I think on the other end, Wembinyama is like the biggest freak we've seen in the history of the NBA. and I think That's also a draw. I know. seeven footer who can drain three pointers Unbelievable. seeven five. Yeahah He's seven foot five. Yeah No, he's not. Is that true? Yes. Oh my Godd. You should watch. It's remarkable. I know I trust me, I do watch every once in a while. I just didn't realize who was that tall. Yeah. That's crazy. I know. That's like Guinness Book of World Records. those guys who like hunch over and die at thirty years old because they can't you know, deal with themselves. You know that in backrooms to tie it all together, there's a number there's a Romanian former basketball player, this young kid in his twenties who plays the pirate. Oh, that's funny. and he's like seven feet tall. He's even bigger. I think he's like seven six. Okay. So we' we we're off point here. So the you're taking we're both taking the over on twelve million for the NBA fininals. All right, that's the show for today. I want to thank my guest, Luas Shaw, producer, Craig Horrback, areditor, Matt Pevick. And I want to thank you. We'll see you a couple more times this week