Can Ukraine win the war

How does a banana trigger a CIA backed coup Do AirPods herald the arrival of a new global order What do LED lights say about the future of humanity I'mt Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside. This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Sky News, The full story first It's me Yala Hakim, and I'm currently in London. And me, Richard Engel in Lisbon. Welcome to the worldorld podcast. It was the famous time where a Russian position surrendered to an all machine attack. The Ukrainians basically surrounded them and the Russians had no way out and they came out surrendering to the robot vehicles Do you think the Ukrainians can win it? Of course they can win it. The Russian arrmy is not an unbeatable army, it's actually not very good in many respects. the first journalist from outside of Iran to film here since the attack As we enter the town of Minab, there are reminders everywhere of its terrible tragedy. We've come to the primary school that was hit on the first day of the conflict by precision guided missiles So Richard, another cancellled attack on Iran by Donald Trump, but this time he says it's because of a request by Gulf states not to do it. So we're going talk about that. And of course, for anyone who's missed the extraordinary reporting coming out of Iran by my colleague, Dominiice Waghorn He has been a guest on this podcast a number of times. He is currently in Iran in MinAab. and of course, MinAab became infamous because of that alleged US strike on the school, which ended up killing over one hundred fifty children and their teachers horrifying incident that happened very early on in the war. He has been there to investigate and find out what actually happened important stories. Dom is a great reporter, great guy, great access. Conggratulations to him and all of you guys. I want to hear about that, what he's seeing. And as all eyes are on the Middle East, what about Ukraine? A massive drone attack in Moscow over the weekend shows that they are still very much in this war in the fight and may even be gaining the upper hand That's what Professor Phillips O'Brien says. You'll be hearing from him later in this episode, and it was a fascinating conversation And of course, President Putin traveling to Beijing this week to meet with Xi Jinping just a few days after Donald Trump was there. So we'll speak a little bit about that. And of course, don't forget to follow us wherever you get your podcast, you can send us your thoughts as well to the world, the world atskyot Uk and watch us on YouTube Before we unpack all that's happening in Iran, are we heading for escalation? Are we heading for a peace deal Yesterday, just in one day, we saw both moves. We saw President Trump make new threats and escalate and then say that he's not going launch this attack that he had just threatened moments earlier So trying to follow this is like trying to follow a fast moving car on the rac trrack. Dominic has an amazing position to do that. He's in Iran right now and he traveled to the south where that school was hit. and Was it more than one hundred and fifty people killed? and that was just right on the first on the first day of the war So just to recap what actually happened, this incident, horrifying incident took place on the first day of the war on february the twenty eighth. News suddenly emerged that a school had been hit in Min up, which ended up leaving over one hundred fifty children and their teachers dead. horrified the world and Immediately, the Trump administration pointed the finger of blame on the Iranian authorities saying that they had conducted this strike or which ended up killing so many people. It later emerged that it was a tomahawk missile that was used And of course, no one is in possession of Tomahawks, but the United States. So The U.S. military is currently investigating this incident and three and a half months on, there still isn't any sort of findings that have come out of this investigation and no real clarity or frankly, accountability for what happened. You know you talk about the fact that Donald Trump, we've seen the different sides of Donald Trump in one day, first of all, launching these sort of threats against Iran, which we've seen him do over the past few months and then backtracking. The one thing he's been silent about though, is this attack on this particular school because it left the world outraged, devastated. Certainly in Iran, the families are trying to seek justice. And Dom was able to piece together what happened on that day, but also speak to the grieving families, mothers who have been going back to the graves of their children three and a half months on every single day. Richard, they go back where they sing their children lullabies every night. I mean, it just it's gut wrenching. But let's just have a listen to what Dom senters from Minab. Hi Ylda Hi Richard from Minab, where we've been for almost a week now And it's been an extraordinary An extraordinary moving week, a harrowing week talking to the people here. I think people listening will remember How on day one, America's war went very, very wrong in this town when Cruise missiles landed in the town's primary school And we are among the first international journalists to get here and It's been a difficult journey, difficult to get permission, difficult to get here four days travelling from London. twenty hour train journey from Iran. But it's been worth it. and I think Most of all, because the people we've met here and interviewed are desperate to have their stories told. They don't feel they've been able to say what's happened dear enough to the outside world. And also I think they've been saying to us as outsiders, can you explain what happened here Can you say well that the people who did this are going to be held to account I've covered wars, revolutions, natural disasters like you both have, and They are often difficult to cover, but Day one of our trip here, I think don't think I've ever been as moved in a day's filming. We went to the school and we met two brothers who had arrived shortly after the missiles came in and they described and graphic and harrowing testimony what they saw. whichich is what you would expect, I suppose, to see when weapons, very powerful missiles designed to sink battleships or blow up military bunkers fly into a building full of children. The most moving interview was with a young mother called Khadija Now we found her in the town's cemetery, and that is where most of the children are buried, and you've probably seen it in our reports where parents go most evenings. and a lot of these parents have said to us that They just can't accept their children have gone and to kind of make up for that and deal with that. they go to the graves of their children, many of them dusk and then spend most of the evening there well into the early hours Beside their children's graveside Padigja was beside the grave of her son Muhammed Taaha And there were balloons on his grave and a birthday cake and they were lighting sparklers because it would have been his tenth birthday night and she fought back the tears as she said to us, just all I want is to have one last moment with him to be able to hold him and hug him and speak to him and very movingly said that she's not been able to her and husband have not been able to tell Ilya Their five year old son who is autistic, what has happened to his brother, his elder brother, who he adores We interviewed her a couple of days later and for more than two hours, the tears just streamed down her face as she talked about what her and her family have been through And the point to make here is it's The nature in which these children died was horrendous and many of them have not been able to most of their children back. And I think there's a contrast to draw here between the courage of the people here and the conduct of the American government since this terrible tragedy. There seems little doubt that this was America's fault. These were American Tomahawk missiles America had been bombarding a number of targets in the area a preliminary report that's been leaked makes it pretty clear America was probably responsible And in previous incidents like this that you may well have reported on in Afghanistan and in Iraq America fairly quickly claimed responsibility within a few days at the most a week or two At this time It's taken almost three months for them to only say that they are investigating this Aroity And I think know it's fair to say that if you are responsible, if all the evidence points to you being responsible for this kind of event U You really should find the guts to admit it and in contontrast with what weve seeen from the parents here so far the way the Trump administration has responded to this terrible incident and tragedy in Minab that has killed more than one hundred and twenty children does seem Pretty spineless And of course, Richard, we've been demanding answers from the Trump administration. We've reached out to the Pentagon as well. And Reuters is now reporting that the US military says that they are investigating, but the investigation is complex. And I'm just going to read you the exact quote given to Reuters that the school located or the school was located on an active Iran cruise missile base, that's according to a US admiral. So you know the Americans are maintaining that this particular school was on an active Iranian military base and IRGC base. Having spoken to DOom and the crew on the ground, they say the base or even if there was a military facility, they drove for miles towards this sort of gated area, which is where the school was and the school was nowhere near a base. And they think that it was old intelligence that they had based this on in terms of launching the strike. These mothers, the teachers, the students, all of their lives could have potentially been sacrificed based on an old bit of intel. I spoke to someone from the Pentagon who now no longer works at the Pentagon. and he said, lookook, we only launch these investigations when we're more or less sure and certain that it was us And you know, I referenced previous U. S. missile attacks, whether it was in Kabul. Do you remember that attack, the drone strike attack, which killed a young family? O course of course, they were moving water barrels and the Americans thought they were moving bombs Yeah And they were evacuating and they launched this kind of like one of the final strikes before they left, and they said it was the Taliban, but in fact it was this young family and a bunch of kids who were killed. And you know, he talked about the fact that when mistakes are made, you, there is accountability on some level, compensation is playaid. There is a sense of reflection. That is basically how America likes to look at these moments. And yet in this instance, he said that it feels like the country, the United States, has no soul when they can look at these images of these children. and the Pentagon says, well, there's an investigation The investigation goes nowhere and frankly, all we've heard is silence And it's important that people focus on these things not only for the moral value of it, but So that it enters into the historic record. I mean, we now get so much information, so much disinformation. We consume so many half truths and manipulated truths that it's important for people to write down an accurate record and polish it and show it to people and put it in their pockets and say, this is really what happened. Yeah, nation states have responsibilities during warfare You know, according to international law, that when these things happen, they are to be investigated and they need to look you towards finding out why it happened and then being able to learn lessons from it. Back to the larger question we were discussing at the top Where is this going So you'll either see a big escalation with a new naval offensive and maybe an air campaign, likely an air campaign as well to protect that offensive Or The the Gulf states Maged to rein him in and then we're heading toward Dal. Where do you Where do you see things going Yeah, I do think there is you know truth in the pressure coming from the Gulf States because Forget, as we've seen, they've been bearing the bulk of the kind of retaliation by the Iranians and they knew that their energy infrastructure, for example, would get targeted and hit. That any strikes that the United States and Israel launches on Iran, the Iranians have found this weak spot for themselves, but I think separate to that is the issue of have either side you know made any concessions, which They can sort of accept, and it doesn't feel at this point in time, the red lines seem to be clear from both sides, but they're both it's like a tug of war. and both sides want the other side to sort of capitulate. And frankly, we're not seeing that. You know, I talked to you the other week about how the Iranians like to negotiate, that they like to bring a maximalist approach to the table and then spend months know trying to break that down and negotiate, and they like to negotiate. they like to roll up their sleeves and argue their point. But they're dealing with an administration unlike the Obama administration that had patience and time and two years of negotiations with a bunch of experts. The Trump administration wants a fourteen point plan, a twenty point plan, like they did for Gaza And so they want a quick fix here. and they want the Iranians to accept that they won't be charging taxes on the Strait of Hormuz and open it up. And they want them to give up their nuclear program. But frankly, the way that things are heading Why on earth would the Iranians give up the strait of Hormz when they've realized it's such a big of leverage for. It doesn't seem to be going in the right direction. Every time The Americans have tried to go in recently by force into Hamuz. The Iranians have responded very quickly, very aggressively, attacking the boats, attacking particularly the UAE, has which is bothering Iran more and more, and that alliance between the U. S, the UAE and Israel is becoming clearer Um, If you look at the trajectory right now, it looks like could be heading toward escalation. By the way, Ylda, we had it right last time. She did not offer to help bail out President Trump She was you know, happy to talk about business and buying some airplanes, but he did not want to offer a solution or an off ramp to President Trump. It seems that a failed summit or a summit that failed to end the war or even really to advance diplomacy, new threats persistent military risk from these small boats that the Iranis have, which they're using effectively to control the strait of Hamz It seems like we could see missiles flying again. Richard, you spoke about Xi Jinping and his meeting with Donald Trump and Xi Jinping not offering to help Donald Trump, which is what we talked about. Xi Jinping has been very busy with guests. He met with Donald Trump just a few days ago. He's going to be greeting Vladimir Putin. So after the break, we're going to give you a bit of an update on another war because of course, everyone is focused on the situation in the Middle East. But we're going to turn our attention to Ukraine How does a banana trigger a CIA backed cp Do airPods herald the arrival of a new global order LED lights say about the future of humanity I'm Ed Conway, and in each episode of my new podcast, Stuff Matters, I take an object, crack it open, and reveal the world shaping forces hidden inside This is economics told through the things we think we understand. Search Stuff Matters on your podcast app to listen and follow Welcome back. So we've been focusing on the situation in Iran, but Richard, let's turn our attention to Ukraine. And you've been speaking to someone about the situation in Ukraine and Russia's approach to this war. Just talk us through that Yeah, absolutely. So I wanted to find out more about Ukraine and how it's going. and there are all these reports that we're seeing that Uk that the Ukrainians are making some progress. They launched this big drone attack against Moscow, getting through the country's air defenses So I spoke with a short while ago, Phillips O'Brien, who's a professor at St. Andrew's College up in Scotland And he follows the war very closely. He's a professor of political history and current events And I asked him Can the Ukrainians win this war? How's it going? What's changing And he is actually sounding very upbeat about Ukraine's prospects even as President Trump is now working as he describes it, hand in hand. on the same side with Vladimir Putin And joining us now is Professor of Strategic Studies and International relations at the University of Stain. Andrews in Scotland. Professor Phillips O'Brien. It's very nice to talk to you Thanks for having me here, Richard. It's an absolute pleasure. So today, I want you to help us understand Ukraine. It's a country I've been too many times, have been following it, you've been writing about it. So I want to ask you how are things going in the war right now? Be Ukraine hasn't been in the headlines like Iran has We saw this drone attack that the Ukrainians carried out, quite quite significant attack against Moscow. And there are reports that the Ukrainians are doing better on the battlefield, that they're holding the Russians back. So what's going on Well they are. I mean, if you compare to last time, people might have been paying attention, which is in twenty twenty five, and a lot of the narrative in twenty twenty five was that the Russians were advancing relentlessly, blowing up Ukrainian cities, blowing up Ukrainian power plants. And as Donald Trump said, the Ukrainians were going to lose the war, the Ukrainians have no cards. That was sort of the narrative of twenty twenty five What we see in twenty twenty six is significantly different And what has happened is that in many of the spheres of the war, the Ukrainians have taken the initiative away from the Russians. Now it's not to say they're not blasting the Russians back Or you know, they're not going to instantly retake all of their territory. But if you look at the different spheres of the war, in all of those spheres, the Ukrainians are doing better than they were in twenty twenty five. And What do you mean by spheres of the war Well, basically long range strike, mid range strike, frontline, and war at sea might be a way you would divide up the military areas of the war. But by the way, the Ukrainians have had the initiative in the W at C for most of the war. So that hasn't changed. I mean, that's one where the Ukrainians have been doing quite. But on these other three, they've now taken the initiative and what caused that What caused that to change Well, there are a number of reasons, but I'm always going to narrow it down to the most important is that in the area of drones, UAVs, unpiloted aerial vehicles and unpiloted ground vehicles when it comes to the land war, the Ukrainians have gained the initiative in all of those areas. They're making better systems and they're using those systems at this point better than the Russians, or certainly in most cases, more effectively than the Russians So when it comes to the ground war, where the two armies meet What happens is the Russians have found it almost impossible to move forward now because they will be Quickly identified by a Ukrainian drone, a Russian soldier has a very short lifespan if that soldier becomes exposed and out on the battlefield And the Ukrainians will find that soldier and they'll kill it. So Russian casualties are extremely high and they've stopped moving forward So I like the way you broke this down into four different categories. The war at seea The long range attacks which Ukraine has been really struggling to stop because of inadequate missile defense and things like that The short range attacks, so just over the border, places that are still in the frontline area, but are not on the front line, but they're cllose enough And then finally the front line itself, the line of contact. Which one would you say that drones have had the most impact? Because you think of drones taking over on the front line, but how are drones helping with these other threats? I mean certainly I mean, all of this fears that the drone is the primary weapon right now So you can't say it's more important for a long range strike than in the battlefield. It's absolutely. for Ukraine, it's vital for all three So when it comes time to the frontline, most of the Ukrainian killing and wounding of Russian soldiers and destruction of Russian vehicles is being done by drones now. eighty percent of Russian casualties are being done by drones. And these are often the small ones. So the ones at the battlefield are the small called often first person view FPV drones which are flown by someone sitting deep in a hole, you know trying to protect themselves and flying this vehicle over the battlefield. So you that's how the Russians have stopped moving forward They can't because of Ukrainian small drones. But what happened this weekend in Moscow, these are the long range drones So the Ukrainians have now developed a class of much longer range drone. I mean, they're hitting targets fifteen hundred kilometers plus from Ukraine now, more than one thousand miles from Ukraine And these are their longer range strike drones. They've actually struggled with those for a while They'd struggled making them accurate enough making them survivable, where they can actually not be brought down by electronic warfare or too easily brought down by anti air. They've clearly made some advances in their long range drones. They were able to hit Moscow, which is the most heavily defended city in the world right now when it comes to air defense. But the Ukrainians got the most heavily defended. more than Tel Aviv, more than. Anwhere in the world in terms of number of systems. Now that might not be as well defended. I mean, I imaginera Israel probably uses its anti air systems better But if you look at a map of Moscow now, you'll see the city ringed by multiple rings of anti air systems, extraordinary number of anti air systems. So tell us a little bit what happened in Moscow, and how did they get through? And then please help me understand and all of us What changed You know the Russians are smart and they're working on this technology and they're taking huge casualties. so they're motivated to get better Why is it that the Ukrainians suddenly got this technological breakthrough Were they given a leg up? Was it a new technology? Was it a particular engineering breakthrough? What changed first tells us what happened in Moscow Well, the Ukrainians aren't going to tell me how they got them through. So I'd love to be able to tell you Richard, you know what the big difference was in the attack this weekend compared to some past ones. It might be they just had more systems and overloaded Russian anti air So the dealing with large numbers of systems is more difficult. The Ukrainians have been working on different elements to make their long range drones more effective for a while and they were able to get some into the center of Moscow through this very heavy anti air shield that covers the Russian capital And they were able to hit some what looked to be significant targets. So that was quite a shock, I think, particularly for the Russian people. What Putin has been telling the Russians for four and a half years now, four years and three months is the war is going well, we're going to win the war And he's kept Moscow as protected as possible and life in Moscow much as it had been before the war to try and keep Moscow protected. And what the Ukrainians were saying this weekend is that's not going to continue anymore. Moscow is now a frontline city, you know and we can attack it if we want. Certainly a wake up call for Russians people living in Moscow, tellell me about these fully automated front line positions now. It sounds kind of dystopian futuristic where you have a frontline That is monitored, protected ended and can attack Hm Autonymously without human beings directly in the mix. Is this a myth? Are they really happening? And how is this the future of warfare? Be it does sound very science fiction and dystoian where you just sort of deploy the robots on the border and let them do their thing and you can stay back in your cities. Is that happening in Ukraine now? It's almost there. It's not there fully because there will, at least for the foreseeable future, always be a few people around But what they're doing, Ukrainians are keeping the number of tasks that a human soldier has to do to the absolute minimum and using machines wherever possible so that you will go to long stretches of the front line and there will be very few Ukrainian soldiers And those that will be there won't be visible at all. They'll be hidden, they'll be and very, you know, they'll be concealed, they'll be protected. because the Ukrainians don't want to expose them. And what they do is they use machines to do everything they can. So that over the head, over your head, you have the flying drones. and the flying drones are doing intelligence and then they're providing attack If they see a Russian soldier, they'll attack. So the flying drones provide the constant intelligence, the surveillance, where are the Russians? And then you know we've killed Russians in this area. And now you're adding ground vehicles to that And ground vehicles are really three kinds of very distinct ground vehicles. Two of which show how human beings are still there One of which is the logistic vehicle. So they don't use human beings to bring supplies forward now. That's a really dangerous job, but they do have a few soldiers in the front line. So to get supplies to the soldiers in the front line, they're using automated vehicles. So theseese are not piloted vehicles or they're remotely piloted vehicles. I've seen some of these. These are like these robotic platforms like the robotic scooters that you can load boxes on or you could put a casualty on if necessary. But they're all terrain vehicles a little bit like some sort of lunar rover. that can bring supplies to Absolutely. I mean, they're like small flatbad trucks in a way without without a human driver And the other thing they do, which which is and I've talked to someone who's seen them, they evacuate the people that do get wounded on these evacuation UGBs unpiloted or there's no human driver vehicle which will take the wounded out. I remember I was talking to Ukrainian said it was he came across one in the middle of the woods one that they were evacuating, this guy had been wounded kilometers forward. and then all of a sudden this vehicle came stealthily quietly by with no driver, but there was clearly a wounded Ukrainian in it. So they evacuate soldiers in that. And then they are now having fighting vehicles too They're harder to see, they're harder to destroy. They are much smaller than a tank which has a crew of four. much cheap. They don't any they're battery powered. They don't make any noise. There's no smoke, there's no diesel, fumes, there's nothing Yeah It's so much so much more efficient way of fighting. So you have vehicles doing those three roles now. There was the famous time where a Russian position surrendered to an all machine attack I know that? Well that was onender Rian soldiers putting up their hands to robots. Yeah it absolutely did The Ukrainians basically surrounded them in some kind of structure And the Russians had no way out and they came out surrendering to the robot vehicles. Now we don't know if there were actually human soldiers not that far away. So we have to be very careful. These are the pictures the Ukrainians released. But the key thing is it's minimum number of soldiers minimum number. as always, I think a few and let the machines do everything the machine can do And who's making all of these drones mostost cases for both the Ukrainians and the Russians, the components come from China because there's certain things that aren't really made efficiently in large numbers everywhere else. sayay the cameras The Chinese just make good cheap cameras that can go on all these drones and you have to have a camera. Ukraine can't source the cameras anywhere else The motors that power the little drone. mean they're small motors, but they have to work The Chinese make by far the most supply of the world's motors So what happens is the components get delivered to both Russia and Ukraine. But overall, you might say what we are seeing is Chinese drones fighting Chinese drones on both sides, just with different interpretations And I've never seen technology go backwards. Once you introduce a new technology in warfare It stays. Yeah. And the drone will stay there until someone finds an anti drone weapon and right now there isn't a cheap and effective anti drone weapon And until that is the case, the drone is going to be this very important thing How would you characterize President Trump's involvement in this because President Trump made it quite clear he wasn't that interested in helping the Ukrainians out. Did that somehow Force the Ukrainians to innovate by being starved of resources or is that a step too far that's apt. I mean I've heard this argument by people who are trying to defend what Trump did. The Ukrainians started this transition to the drone in twenty twenty three So this is something that began before Trump. I think twenty twenty four is the key year in that transition where they really said, okay, you know, that's we're not going to get long range help from the West. the United States and this was under Biden. we're not going to get long range help So we're going to have to do things for ourselves and we really have to save our soldiers' numbers I think the thing that that Trump in a sense changing sides and Trump in many ways helps Putin now far more than he helps the Ukrainians. What they did take from that is they're going to fight the war they want to fight. From twenty twenty two to twenty twenty four, they often deferred to the United States. So the Biden administration didn't like them doing long range strikees. No, they didn't like. They were very vocal about it. They were tell they would reprommand the Ukrainians do not cross the Russian border and do not use American weapons to do it under any circumstances. And it was a big point of contention between the two sides Absolutely. And so what happened is when Trump did stop giving Ukraine aid, then Ukraine stopped having to listen to the United States Because why were they going to do what Trump wanted when Tump wasn't helping them Now are the Ukrainians just sort of them, not asking for permission, and then if the Americans are upset about it, then they just Mo on with it They care what I mean, the one intervention by the United States in the last few weeks was to ask the Ukrainians not to attack Putin's parade. So the balance has changed in the discussions that before that, there was the United States saying that Ukrainians don't attack Russian targets. And then actually it was Trump went and negotiated on Putin's behalf with Zelensky. and said, don't attack the parade and the Russians will do a big prisoner exchange with you. So I think that's a really important moment. And you know they just are now, they do not care about offending the United States. like you said President Trump switched sides that Or when you mean President Trump switched sides, or do you mean the United States switched sides? fromiden? And then Trump took a new position? The position of the United States now, which has been trying to force on Ukraine for most of twenty twenty five and into twenty twenty six, is that Ukraine needs to agree to a peace that Putin wants. He wanted the United States has put pressure on Ukraine to give up territory the Russians have not conquered. The United States has put pressure on Ukraine to legally cede its land to Russia The United States has put pressure on Ukraine to agree to limitations on its military equipment The United States has put pressure on Ukraine not to allow not to ever go into NATO to be kept out of NATO. So the position of the United States, which has been made very clear to the Ukrainians, and I think the Ukrainians, it's another one of the reasons the Ukrainians have stopped listening to the United States The position of the U.S. government is that Ukraine needs to make major concessions to Putin That's what it is. Do you think Trump is now negotiating for Putin? He's pushing Putin's agenda Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think basically, the United States has worked out a common position in Witkoff and Kushner talking with the Russian negotiations have worked out a common position, and the United States has been trying to get the Ukrainians to accept it. But the Ukrainians are not accepting it And that's why there's no these discussions aren't really going anywhere. because there's no common ground Do you think the Ukrainians can win it? And what would that look Of course, they can win it. I mean, that's really. The Russian arrmy is not an unbeatable army. It's actually not very good in many respects. It's not an adaptable organization. It's not one that shows a great deal of initiative. It has fought an incredibly bloody war, sacrificing unsustainably large numbers of people to make its small advances And it's starting to hit the wall now It's losing thirty five thousand Ukrainian casualty records, by the way, are really good because this is a horrible war and they get a picture of almost everyone they kill because these soldiers are now getting killed by first person view drones So they really get a record of almost everyone they hit now. It's really quite extraordinary in a grrizzly way. And the Ukrainians have said, and I think this has been validated by a number of Western intelligence agencies that in March and April they killed killed and wounded, seriously wounded thirty five thousand Russian soldiers a month So does this all mean that Zelensky and Trump are basically done? Zelensky is really trying to win him over He took that embarrassing moment where he was you brow beaten in the oval Office on the chin and Ukraine is doing what it is fighting this war kind of with or without the Americans. So is that relationship over the Zelensky Trump att at a friend. It's not they don't have an attempted friend. I mean, Trump hates Zelensky. He's always hated Zelenssky. so yeah, there was never any friendship there. That What happened in the Oval Office was actually Trump's true opinion But I don't think the relationship's over. It's just now that the United States has much less leverage over Ukraine and Ukraine's going to do what it wants. So they're going to deal with each other from a very detached self interested point of view. There's no emotion in the relationship But the United States is not pro Ukrainian from the Ukrainian point of view, so they're not going to cowow to the USA and What would winning look like? Well you could go a number of ways. One way would be that basically the Russian army through mid range strike, which we haven't talked about, this sort of strike from fifty kilometers to three hundred kilometers, begins to run out of logistics ab and the Ukrainians shut off the supply to the Russian military and that it would take time to operate. basasically, the Russians will struggle, struggle, struggle to get supplies through, and then their military would become less perf more imperfect force than it is now, and the Ukrainians could take advantage of that to take back some of their territory. They could do it by shutting down the Russian economy by better long range strike, combined with this. So if you combine, the Russian army begins to falter with long range strike, which really damages the Russian oil system. And by the way, Russia needs oil to live. It's one of the only ways they can get money And if you can actually start devastating the Russian oil exporting system, that would put huge pressure U And so that's another thing that could play into the equation. And finally, it's probably also the people around Putin who are looking at this and going, this war is not going well And the one threat that Putin has to his rule is the idea that if people around him think he's lost the war or he can't win it. and then then that actually has an real impact, I think on what happens internally in Russia. So there could be there are a number of different scenarios here. I don't want to guess one But all wars are winnable and all wars are losable. You know, The idea that Russia can't beaten is just wrong, it's whether We help Ukraine to do it. and I think Ukraine has a pretty good plan to do it. They still want some help with it The Russian military is beatable and the Russian state is not that strong Professor Phillips, thank you very much. This was a great conversation. I hope everyone enjoyed it as much as I did. Thank you for your time and You're still up in Scotland, so I hope the weather starts to improve. One of the producers on this show was just up in your neighborhood and said it was freezing It's been the coldest spring I remember. So there you go. Well, thank you very much again Take it easyough. Richard, that was really interesting. And of course, as you say and as we've been discussing, President Putin is going to be in Beijing this week. So all eyes will be on what is said to the Chinese leader and basically the focus back for a little bit on Ukraine