Future of NATO Maritime Security

Sky News, The full story first Russian warship, taking pot shots at two pensioners sailing the English Channel tells us a lot about our ability to defend against Vladimir Putin This is one When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there's no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred Ganger, click ranger d. com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. Do you remember the last time you crossed the channel app? Maybe you and the kids were on your way to a campsite for your holidays, Maybe you were even on a bit of a booze cruise? But I imagine the furthest thing from your mind would have been getting shot at by a Russian warship. Except that's exactly what happened to Alan and Jane Kelvy, a retired couple from Buckinghamshire. They were sailing to France on their yacht bright future, a nameim which, for a few tense moments, must have felt wildly optimistic. The Russians say they only fired warning shots as the boat was at risk of colliding with theirs, the Admiral Gagorovich Allan and Jane say they weren't. The Ministry of Defense is downplaying the incident, but this is serious, significant and says a lot about our ability to defend ourselves. Professor Michael Clark is Sky's security analyst Michael always good to see you. L, I'm worried that we perhaps are just become a little bit sanguine about what is going on around the United Kingdom. Simply put What on earth is a Russian warship doing a handful of miles off the coast of the Isle of White Well, it's been a handful of miles off the coast of Suffolk for several weeks. It sits by the wind farm of Suffolk We'll talk about the Admiral Gogorovich, which is a very powerful frigate. It was part of the Black Sea Fleet. I think at one time, it was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. So it's a modern frigate and it has been escorting Dark fleet tankers, you know, illegal tankers carrying Russian illegal oil to markets around the world, up and down the channel And it's been resupplied at least once, sitting off the Suffolk Coast. The Navy is tracking all of this. But it tracks it with what it's got available. So HMS Tyne, which is an offshore patrol vessel, that tracked it. And then as it came down to the Isle of White, it was tracked by HMS Mersey, which is again offshore patrol vessel. And those are just they're really Coastguard cutters. They're not much more than that, but they track it. And so the Ggorovich has been hanging around for a long time. It's up to no good in the sense that it's escorting illegal ships backwards and forwards. It's trying to act as a deterrent against the Navy, our Navy, or anyone else's Navy, the French Navy or the Dutch Navy intervening to seize one of these tankers. Last Sunday the Navy did what it's been claiming it would do since March and it seized a tanker, the Seros and Ms Merios was taken into Waymouth Right near the Isle of Whight. So the Grigorovich is not normally seen in these waters. So it's sitting not too far off the Isle of Wite. So I think the Grigorovich was there to have a look at what was going on. That's my guess. It's not normally in that part of the British Isles, but In answer to your basic question, why is a Russian frigate hanging around? It's been doing it for a long time? Is this a provocation? Are the Russians essentially on the wind up? Be legally that I like to be where they are. in international waters. Yeah. They stay in international waters. and you'd expect me to do that. And they have a right to be there just as if we sent frigates or for that matter, submarines or anything else up into the Bar and sea off the Cola Peninsula, as long as they stay in international waters, they have a right to be there as well But that doesn't necessarily mean it's not provocative. No, it can be provocative. And in this case, it's provocative not because the Drugorvich is going to fire on you know coastal sort of towns the way the Germans did in nineteen fourteen. It's provocative because the Russians are determined to run shadow fleet tankers up and down in and out of the channel. And you could say, well, why don't they go the long way round they could come through the channel because it's quicker it's shorter, it's another five hundred miles. and some of these tankers are rust buckets, these shadowleet tankers. If they have to go into the deep Atlantic to avoid, you know British seizure then some of them will not do very well in sort of high Atlantic swells So they much prefer to come through the channel. and as long as we let them, which we were doing, until last Sunday, they'll do it. The action that the Ministry of Defense took on s or of the British government too in seizing this shadowfleet tank. it did have an immediate effect because at least five or six other shadow Fleet tankers were on their way down the North Sea. They were coming through the same route. They all turned away. And they presumably are now on the long way around. So it's part of a bigger game which has gone one notch up since Sunday. And that's in my view is why the Grgorovich was where it was This incident is it's something and nothing But The question is exactly right, what was it doing in sitting off the Isle of Whide Let's talk about exactly what happened to Anne and Chane Kelvy from Buckinghamshire. I mean, this is one of the most British stories I've ever heard of on their yacht, sailing off to France and they encounter a Russian frigate. What do we know is going on All right, was it was a misty day, which is okay They were on their forty foot yacht. They're obviously experienced sailors. They say that they were five hundred meters away from the Guger Rich The Grgorovich said they were getting close and they were on a collision course. They say they weren't on a collision course And Guorowvich said a number of slightly odd things. One is that they said they had a steering problem and they were drifting, that this frigate was drifting And they were worried that this yacht was on a collision course with them, which the yacht denies Let's be honest about it. The Grgorovich versus this forty foot pleasure yaach. I mean, I know which one's going to come off the worst in a collision. Oh, I mean Grgorovich is about three and half four thousand tons. Right. And a forty foot pleasure yacht is, five tons, six tons maximum. So if it hit the side of the Grgorich, it might sort of damage the paint work, but no moreight. It would scratch it, but that's all it would do The Grgorovich then said, they said we radioed them and they didn't get response. I don't believe that for reasons I've come to. Then they said we put up flares I've got no response. If they put up flares, then other boats would have seen them. Nobody seems to have seen them. No even g them the mist. Well, there's plenty of boats around though. It seems odd to me if they put up flares that they weren't reported by somebody else. Okay. Then they said that they sounded their claxson twice five times each, which the boat did hear, the pleasure craft did hear. And then they started taking rifle shots in the air or in front of the boat. And again, in a rifle shots' a strange thing to do shot across somebody's bow. You'd use a machine gun becausecause it's unmistakable machine gun. I mean, four or five rifle shots can just sound like a bit of a crack As it happens, the couple in the yacht did identify them as rifle shots and they veered away And then the other thing about this is that five hundred yards is quite a distance if you talk about sailing boats. I mean two warships at five hundred yards, you know going at fifty knots. That's quite something. But I mean, a sailing boat is going to go at seven or eight knots. And a sailing boat can turn on a sixpence. The Royal Navy asks mariners to keep two hundred and fifty yards away, not five hundred. And that two hundred and fifty yards is regarded as safe So the Russians were overreacting to a boat that didn't think it was doing anything strange. We've mentioned the fact that this Russian boat appears to have been adrift Shn't they have told someone about that? Yes. The first thing they should have done, is my question since yesterday was what happened to channel sixteen? In maritime affairs, channel sixteen is always kept open Right So you only go into channel sixteen for functional reasons. So you might sort of call up Marina Wymouth, Marina Wymouth and Marina Waymouth will come on board and say channel eight and then switch to channel eight and then you have the conversation you want to have with Marina Waymouth. If anybody starts having a chat on channel sixteen Th thenen the coast guuard will cut and say get off Because Channel sixteen is the open channel for functional conversations as to where else to go to talk or a Mayday of some sort. The cooast Guard will monitor this, so there must have been some chatter going on. The Russians say they tried to radio them. Now, the logical thing, they would have tried to contact them on channel sixteen to say, you're on a collision course, change course. The Coast Guard would have heard that, either the French Coast Guard or the British Coast Guard. There must be some chatter somewhere if the Russians did what they said theyd do. And if the Grgorovich was drifting, if they'd had a steering problem, then they should have been on channel sixteen to the cooast Guard to say we have an engine problem. And then the cooast Guard would have informed everybody we've got a Russian frigate driftting off the le of Wh. Be careful. There's no reason that the Russians would not do that by merit of the fact that they had a military rather than a civilian ship. should It shouldn't make any difference because know maritime law applies civilian maritime law applies to warships as well as civilian ships, certainly in all situations outside war, which thankfully we still are. But the Russians, they usually, they do ignore normal conventions on air routes. They travel with their transponders off. they behave as if they're not going to bother with the regulations. that's obviously I think that's what the Grgorowich was doing And you know, that's what that is what they do But then they claim that they did everything according to maritime practice, which they didn't. And it is absolutely not part of maritime protocol to fire warning shots. Yeah, that was the bit I was going to ask you about. You know, firing a couple of guns into the air doesn't sound to me desperately worrying No, I the couple on the yachts said it was it's a bit scarying curious. And they thought the officers thought we better turn away then in case this is' British. So it'll get worse. Yeah We'll go somewhere else, then dear. So don't worry about it. So I mean that was why the whole incident was curious. But I think the Russians overreacted. If they were drifting If they thought this yacht was bothering them, or if they thought maybe there's I don't know, journalists on the yacht or that somebody was coming to nose around because they were drifting And then they overreacted and they didn't follow in my view, they certainly didn't follow the protocols that you would have expected them to. The Prime Minister has said that this was reckless, not sinister. I meanip rast haacks here, Michael, do you believe the account that we have been given of what happened? Is this retaliation by the Russians for what we did to their shadow tanker fleeing No, I mean, genuinely, I think I believe the MOD on this one or the Prime Mister on this one, I think it was reckless and foolish. Somebody on the Grgorovz panicked. I don't think there was much thought behind it And the more I thought about it, the more I thought, if this thing was drifting you know, it's a big ship to have drifting in in a crowded waterway. They might have been quite alarmed and then they might have overinterpreted the idea that there was a sailboat five hundred meters away, but not on a collision course. But it comes at a time when there are much bigger genuine issues on the maritime security of Britain, which the Russians are challenging, undoutedly. You know, rewind, perhaps a year, two years, three years. And would a Russian ship in similar circumstances have deployed even small arms fire against what was clearly a British pleasure cruiser? No, I don't think so. I mean that's the point. things are Delicate now, those arise in tension since the Ukrainian warar and since the Shadow Fleet really got into gear as it were, I mean, nobody's entirely sure how many ships there are in the Shadow fleet But it goes from something like four hundred to one thousand two hundred according to any what day you measure it, because some ships are legal and then they go illegal for a couple of voyys, then they go legal again. and they're always changing their registrations and changing their owners. And basically they're run by a lot of ship owners in Russia and China and UAE. And it's those ship owners who keep playing games with the registrations which was easier to do three or four years ago, much harder to do now because AI and the use of AI by the cooast Guards and the maritime agencies is able now to track people through all these changes of ownership and changes of registration. And so it's much more difficult now to disguise what a ship is actually doing Okay, so Looking back into the history books, have we ever seen something like this before? I mean, have the Russians taken pot shots at British cavy vessels in the past? Oh, I was thinking about this last night. When was the last time the Russians might have fired at British vessels in British waters nineteen oh four Okay so a while ago then? while ago wasank There were also so Japanese war, the Doger Bank incident. Yeah. when a Russian fleet was on its way around the world to take on the Japanese fleet And when they got off the Doger Bank, they came across a British fishing fleet and thought it was Japanese, so fired on it. I what they thought the Japanese were doing off the dooger Bank is anyone's guess. But they fired out. and it was a big incident at the time. The Dogger Bank incident, october nineteen oh four. Yeah. And I mean we talked about going to war with Russia over it. We didn't, but it was one of those crazy things. And then the Russian fleet went all the way around the world And then Japanese completely beat them at the Battle of Sushima, destroy them totally Granger knows when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building. you're managing all of them And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, H back on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering and twenty four seven support. Call one eight hundred Ganger, click Granger. com or just stop by Granger. For the ones who get it done Okay, so Kremlin are down playing this, The the Ministry of Defense and the Prim Minter are down playing this. Allan and Jane are down playing this quite quite brilliantly, but it is still a significant incident. And even if this were not a direct retaliation for what took place in terms of that member of the shadow Oil tanker fleet, it is of a piece with the sort of thing that the Russians might well do or are actually doing. I mean, we've been hearing just this week from the former MI six chief, Sir Richard Moore saying that Russia is deliberately expanding the battlefield to Britain. I mean, this, plus maybe not an example of it, could well have been an example of it. Yeah. I mean, I think this incident is a something or nothing incident itself But it comes at a time of heightened tension And it shows the recklessness of Russian behavior And the fact that they are prepared to put a major frigate pretty close to Britain' shores on a long term basis because of what they're doing in relation to the Shadow Fleet and just general attempts, I think, to intimidate Britain and to show that they will use force if necessary, which is why if Britain repeats last Sunday's operation and goes for another Shadowfleet tanker The next one will be harder and the one after that will be harder because the Russans will make an incident of it. and they'll threaten some sort of shooting incident And the only way to prevent that is you've got to overwhelm them at the point of contact. You've got to overface them at whatever the point of contact is. So we need two type twenty three frigates or a tyype twenty three and a type forty five destroyer, and ideally, an attack submarine as well and all the helicopters. We've got to be able to get round the Grgorovich, if that's what it is and say, don't even think about it, Pal You know, we've got two frigates, you know zeroed in on you. So we are taking this tanker, this illegal tanker and we're towing it into Wymouth. Leave it alone in order to do this peacefully You've got to be able to over match them at the point of contact. At the moment There's no sign that we could really do that. That was going to be my question. I mean, can we right now? And if we can, what have we learned through the firing of small arms in the direction of a forty foot yacht about the state of the UK's readiness to defend itself at sea That's the problem. I mean, the Navy is on its knees at the moment, operationally. The first seealord, Gwyen Jenkins has been fairly clear about that. He said we can just about defend our waters. And when the first Sea lord says that, you know he's putting the best gloss on it he can. My own view is for it's worth, is that as a maritime nation, we can't defend our own waters. When we've only got OPVs, offshore patrol vessels to track major Russian warships, then you know, we know the Russians notice. Well, the Russians have also noticed the fact we didn't have a defense secretary very, very recently as well. I do wonder, you know, if at a time like this, a bit of provocation, you know doesn't go unnoticed by the MOD, doesn't go unnoticed by Downing Street. And if as you suggest, you know, the chances of us taking another part of the shadow Fleet have diminished as a result of this, It job well done by the Russians. It would be. Yeah. I mean, we'll see if we're prepared to do this again, what we did on Sunday. The government said in March that it would intercept shadow fleet tankers passing through British waters. and since they said it two hundred transits have been made by more than one hundred and fifty different vessels So the Russians have basically ignored us. And they assume that we don't mean what we say Now after Sunday, they may rethink that little bit But as I say, that taking the first one is relatively straightforward because it's surprise of the Russi If we do the second and the third and then if we establish the principle that we're going to take shhutterfleet tankers out of the picture whenever we can then it will get quite a bit more dangerous. and the question then is to stop it being dangerous, we've got to have the force available. Now maybe it won't all be us. We can work with our allies, the French are doing it. the Netherlands, the Danes, the Scandinavian countries. We need a more coordinated Allied presence because between us, yeah, we can overmatch the Russians at the point of contact. but us alone I don't think we can do it. But another kind of parallel issue is the fact that when the Russians respond, of course, they are constantly responding in different ways. It doesn't always happen at sea. I mean, the recent court case identifying the two individuals responsible for arson attacks and properties linked to Kyirstama themselves linked to a Russian diplomat. I mean, this is all another aspect of the asymmetric warfare that we are going to be seeing from Russia. They're fighting us as an all frront That's true. And you know, Neil's a really good point. It goes back to this argument was raised with Iranian sanctioned tankers years ago. They said, why why don't we just seize them? I mean, Iranians have been running sanctioned tankers for years Why't we seize them? And the argument was, look, if you do that, there'll be a reaction somewhere else we'll have to live with consequences in some other domain because the Iranians will hit back in some way. S sameame argument with the Russians. If we start seizing these shariff fleet tankers, the Russians will hit back in other ways The argument against that is we've already crossed that threshold. They're hitting back in every way already subthreshold warfare. They're doing everything they can to disrupt our society with sabotage, you know hanging around above our pipelines and cables. They're already know creating as much social disisharmony as they can on social media and they're conducting campaigns, funding political groups and movements and so on. So they're doing all of that. And the argument is, well, we've already passed that threshold. they have already passed the threshold, so we've got to grasp the netle and take it on. Look, For all the talk from the Prime Minister that this was reckless, not sinister, the downplaying of it by the Ministry of Defence and indeed by the Kremlin forget about civilian vessels, are we going to change what we do militarily in the Channel as a result of this? I suspect we will. I don't know. But and going back to the fact that we the British don't have enough vessels available to conduct safe operations where we can overmatch Russian forces or Russian ships that they may put in the channel to create this. But with our allies, we can And I think you know the French have already stood up to this. the Scandinavians have as well we now have. I think the time for a more coordinated NATO reaction in Northwest European waters has probably arrived quite know how it's going to work out and it will be some of it might be a white knuckle ride. But I mean, I've said for some time, I think we're not heading for a confrontation with Russia, but the Russians are heading for confrontation with us. We don't want any of this. but the Russians are pushing them pushing. And we keep saying we have redlines and then they don't believe that we mean them And so until we demonstrate those redlines with some sort of force then they won't get the message because they always push. And perhaps increase the tempo, increase the frequency with which we see Russian flag ships, military ships as well as of course the shadow tanks you know going past through the English channel. We might, yeah, we might well. I mean, the Grigvich has been doing from Russia's point of view, a pretty good job because it's just been hanging around off the Suffolk coast, it's been going backwards and forwards. Sometimes it takes individual ships, sometimes it is escorts groups of threes and fours. And know we're observing all of this. It's all right in front of our noses, under our noses, and we've not done anything about it. So the Russians have assumed that we don't mean what we say Now we think we mean what we say.