Future Prospects for Labour and Reform

Sky News, The full story first T tenen years on from the Brexit referendum, Andy Burnham needs to choose his position on the EU very carefully. and this is why When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there's no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Pall one eight hundred Granger, click ranger d. com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done Ten years ago, on the twenty third of june twenty sixteen, this country changed forever. And Sky News is projecting that the UK has voted out the UK Electorate has taken the historic decision to withdraw from the European Union after more than forty years. Now since then, every prime Minister we've had has either had to try and get Brexit done, not always successfully Brexit means Brexit. means Brexit. means Brexit means Brexit Or to try and find a new relationship with the EU, and hopefully one that gave a bit of a boost to the economy. We're going to take a really important leap forward in terms of the relationship, brring us closer to Europe. It's really good for businesses, really good for the country. So that's what I intend to do. Kstom had promised to hit the reset button with the EU and a big summit was scheduled for July It was going to sign off on several UK EU agreements and kick startart further talks designed to move the UK economy closer to the EU's the summit was canceled as soon as Starmer announced he was stepping down So what about one time remainer Andy Burnham? If of course he actually becomes Pime Minister? His return to national politics came via the Makerfield cononstituency, a seat that voted roughly two to one to leave. So what relationship will he have with the EU and what relationship does he actually want? I'm McKelvoy, is executive editor of Political Europe and co host of our sister podcast, Politics at Sammonans And welcome back to the podcast. Let's start with a bigger picture. ten years on now from the referendum. Has Britain fundamentally changed I think in some ways, Britain has fundamentally changed. and the events that we've seen this week, this high drama at Westminster, the sense that things are impermanent, that prrime Ministers are hiched in and hiched out. a lot of them in the Tory years, that was a direct result of Brexit. We've still seen, despite I think K Starmer coming in veryer much with a plan to put that aside. He said the government would show another face to Europe. I think in practice he's found that harder. And he has found some of the backwash economically of Brexit is still there, and that has dragged down certain aspects of the economy, byy no means all. but I think generally speaking there is still a drag factor from Brexit. We've seen parties trying so hard to deal with it and still struggling with it a decade on. mean So when it comes to the economic side of the argument, I mean there is a consensus that there has been a negative effect on the UK economy, but other factors have been brought in the United States wars around the world that make it very difficult to kind to kind of put a figure on it. But one argument from the Lave supporters was that Brexit really wasn't given a chance because of Ukraine, because of COVID, because of weak leadership in Westminster. I mean, is that true I think the argument, well, people voted for it, should have done it better at Westminster, is a bit evasive because unless you had a clear plan for what was supposed to happen afterwards, And you also had a clear political plan about how you were going to drive this through, knowing that a lot of people were going to disagree with it and a lot of political factions were not going to accept it, then you didn't really have a plan. You were crossing your fingers and hoping that something would up And you still hear it I heard Nigel Farge this morning under pressure on this point in an interview. And he said, Well, Europe's still our largest trading partner. but he was quite dismissive of that. and he said, Well the world's a big place. It should be able to trade much more broadly. And that's true. But you can't simply wish that the world will open its eyes and say we've really got to sign a big trade deal with Britain We have, in fairness, I think this government has pushed them on. soon that was wor keen on the India deal that got over the line under Kir Stama, some good legacy stuff there. The Japan one is really interesting because it's very much about defense and energy, renewal, new tech stuff, good modern stuff we need to do. But it's not really replacing like for like some of the friction in our dealings with Europe know trying to put a summit together, even to get a relatively limited number of things across the line on agri productucts, on electricity, tariffs, youth mobility, turn into these endless stories have had the joy of covering and' still inconclusive to put it as positively as I could. I mean, One of the things that I am most struck by and because we all lived through this, but like COVID, I think we have kind of you repressed the memories of that time. I mean, Brexit consumed everything politically for so many years. Now it seems not to be barely registering at all. So how would you describe the United Kingdom's relationship with Europe I think at the moment it's a standoff withith a bit of a glaze of friendship or willingness to link arms, we have seen this government go its way to make sure that there were not awkwardnesses that there were in relationships in the past. You know That has made some difference. I travel a lot in Germany and Brussels. I haveve head office in Brussels for Pitico I'm often on the road. I'm in Eastter and Central Europe a lot. So let's not forget, although the UU is very dominated, still by the Franco German Alliance. There are other parts of Europe with whom I think we have good relationships in defence and security, particularly over Poland there. But the fact is Europe took this pretty badly. and there is still, and when I even talk to ministers in this government who are pro Europeans to their core, they still find that when it comes to getting a deal across the line where it's a split the difference. what are you going to do about tuition fees if you want more young people, youth mobility going to and fro Can they really go back to having a sort of EU fees agreement, which was very low? Well, that's quite a big concession for the UK to make. but there's terrible grumbling about it, aren't? The diplomatic Corps in London, was really I found very stuck on it. So I think what you get is a sort of well, yes, we'd like to have you back But quite often they would like an apology t her And that's difficult for politicians, right? A because they don't want to often, and B, because their electorates are still, despite the opinion polls. know I think people are quite hedged, and I don't think they want to see the government going on its sackcoth to Brussels. I'm certain that they don't. But Kir Starmer was elected to Westminster promising a reset of our relationship with the European Union You looked at the quotes from senior European leaders the day that Starmer sets out his timetable for resignation And they were full of warm words. I mean, at the very least personal relationship between our Prime Minister, the office of our Prime Minister, and the leaders of our allies in the European Union, That at least has improved, hasn't it It has improved largely because of Ukraine. S certainly European leaders are a bit more flexible and forgiving to the UK than others. But come on, when we tried to get into a scheme called SAfF, a massive kind of weapons procurement scheme which the UK is good. You have a strong defence industry. We worked very closely with Germany on that. they were very supportive of us coming in lucky Britain trying to stand by Ukraine. Germany is the biggest payer. France is very important. but in essence it was blocked by France and we're allies of Ukraine together. So I am not sure I think they are good with Kyia and they would certainly, I think sign the leaving card as Le von der Leyen I think was respectful. But when you look that the Commission has been playing hardb in Brussels on the UK EU reset. hadad it been over the line by now, it would not have been postponed. It would have been a done deal. Andy Berham, he's a pro European and he wasn't going tond doo anything. But now we have in some ways, I think some people may say, I'm afraid, this is an excuse to postpone this summer because he could just go ahead and sort of say C you come to some arrangement about who's going to come? But in fact, you, it won't get signed off. And the leverage then moves back to the EU side. And this has been a very tough and testing negotiation for the UK. So yes, before the cameras and obviously when standing up to terrible things in Ukraine, sometimes a bit on standing up to Donald Trump We're quite useful, but you know, I think we're like the third wheel on the bicycle, frankly. This is fascinating to me because they were they were incredibly warm words. but from your conversations and you will have a lot more of them with significant people in European capitals, it feels almost as if we haven't shaken off the pariah status that Brexit ultimately gave us in the first place I think what they want to know is what are we trying to achieve by getting closer Do they think it means that we want some advantages? And obviously there are degrees of this. There ares some people who are like, oh, well, you know you guys screwed it up, but like you We'll try to help you where we can. But they want a tip for t they want to see that they gain something, which is why things like the youth mobility scheme, which then had to be rebranded as an experience by the Stala government, sounded quite odd, was in order to make the point that young people would be able to travel more easily, but it wouldn't add to the immigration tooss, which the government was very scared doing and even at the last round of negotiations I happened to be writing about just before it all kicked off last week, the memember States saying, actually it's not the you which issues visas, it's us. It's the Czech Republic, it's Finland, it's whoever. And both in Eastern Central Europe and some of the Nordics, you have countries saying, well actually there's some sectors of we don't want We may be struggling in our service industry, so we'd rather the barista jobs went to our own people. If we think like that, so does they. It's not easy and a lot of member states have different views on this. and the appetite to constrain immigration and even young people's freedom of movement has been hardening even though it's a precept of European Un you find in lots of places there are special arrangements, where there are border checks. So I think there's just a hardening and I think we're falling a little bit into that. So if there is this hardening, is there any appetite detectable by you for the United Kingdom to have a pragmatically, practically closer relationship with the institution without re entering it Well, there are lots ways aren't there and I've was always a bit more of a fan in that negotiation of what should happen around Brexit of things like the FTA, the free trading bloc. But you have to have something to offer. If you're Norway, you get a really nice free trade agreement of the kind that I think a lot of people who were half iners, half outers would have thought could have been great for the UK wealthy sovereign fun country, very small population. It's a long way away. The immigration questions and the illegal whose looking after the channel boats. Questions don't arise if it's quite a long way to get to Norway. The Geography matters here. so does what you've got to put on the table. So I think the UK probably if you really tested labour pro Europeans and some conservatives and others, lived M certainly in Greens, they might as well love to be in the customs Union. They gl let's just get rid of a lot of the trade barriers But I think there would be a price. we would have to pay a fee for that. and that would be a big argument. So I think the terms and conditions could be quite onerous, but not impossible. All of which brings us to Andy Burnham. and the road that he has been on politically, when it comes to Europe the European Union, because I think it tells us a bit about where the country is as a whole, I mean, rewind back to twenty sixteen Andy Burnham at the time of the referendum. mean he was very much a remainer, wasn't he? Oh yes, if it R remain it wasn't here And I think since he was really of the politicians that I've known, if I would put in the very pro European column, I had done another podcast, which I do with our mutual friend Ive cooasts atky. Politics of Samonans. I had a little nugget this morning, I thought you might might like. whichich was I was sitting at a dinner last night next to Morris Glassman. He's a labour peer Sen is very much these days the right of the labelue labour. Blue labour., socially conservative, very pro Brexit. canan't bear any undoing of this. And he had a very mischievous line to me. He said, It was God's work on earth to make Andy Burnham the MP for Makerfield, whichich I thought was a very funny line. I mean, what he meant by it was, you know, Andy Burnham was going to get a reality check how a lot of the country that is not places that he would find a lot of allies, the university cities, the prosperous parts of towns, the prosperous suburbs and leafy small towns. onnce you go beyond that, there's still quite a bit of, I think suspicion of what re joining would mean. So I think he's going to drop it. one hundred percent, but hasn't he been aware of that because of his time is made of greatreater Manchester, incredibly leave supporting parts of that community that he has always had to keep at the front of his mind. He's never called to relitigate the Brexit referendum. He's not called to reenter the European Union. You know he does want a closer relationship with it presumably, but not one which comes at the political cost of saying anything along the lines taking us back into the European Union But then if you go to Andy Burnham, you find he said most things at most times, he does have a reputation for being, should we say, quite a flexible spine as a politician. I think he does have some things know he would not say and doesn't believe in. But I think he did. And I think probably, I take your point about being mayayor of Greater Manchester, but it is you can indulge your own views a bit more. know if you say, I'm Andy Burnham Ideally, in the future, who knows when and I would like to rejoin the European Union. You then try and do it when you represent a very Leave constituency at Westminster and then people start bringing it up in every secondview. you tend to sort of clarify and I think more lightly away from it. But I do think probably if you scratched Andy Burnham, you would find someone who would be ideally would like it and that he would like to he would maybe even try a more daring reset with the EU and throw a bit more on the table But you know, a couple of years out, probably from an election, two and a half years I think he wouldn't want to be the only dominating story for him Granger knows, when you're a procurement manager for an office park You're not managing one building. you're managing all of them And to stay ahead, you need to see through walls and around corners. Light's about to fail, filters ready to clog, HVack on its last leg. If you wait until something breaks, you're already behind Count on Granger for quality products, easy reordering and twenty four seven support Call one eight hundred Granger, click Ganger d. com or just stop by Granger For the ones who get it done. I find it fascinating because Burnham talks an awful lot about devolution, regional power. I mean, many of the examples that he points to are examples plucked straight from Europe. So Europe has perhaps remained influential in his thinking even if the European Union hasn't Europe has been influential in his thinking, Yes, but you know what does that mean? I think when he says Europe, I mean, what is Europe? You know, the France where Jordan Bardella is marching in the polls on the far far, right? with some pretty scary ideas, I think, also, including he's only just stopped being very permissive about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. know the last few months We've kept it dialed down in that movement. But if you look the four and more years before, you see a very different picture. I don't think they're particularly supportive of NATO, et cetera. So I think when you say Europe, you know, I'm just a bit cautious. if you're talking about how the commommission tries toold together, hold the ring, hold on to negotiations with foreign powers like us Yes, I think we are still hugely. We still look to them. we're nervous about it. They infuence trade deals. We haven't come to an agreement on our steel tariffs in Europe.. So that is true. But I think Europe is in ferment. Let's not forget that. We're not the only ones who are having a bit bit of a headache right now. No I suppose what I'm flailing around blindly in the dark trying to suggest is, look, the economic realities are that right now we need as much cash and growth as we can get. And that to an extent has to factor in some sort of relationship with the European Union. and by that I mean some sort of closer relationship with the European Union. But Andy Burnham, particularly because he's Makerfield MP, runs into the same problem that every Labour Prime Minister post Brexit will have, is how do you square the circle. How do you come up with a relationship with the European Union that is Palatable to those who voted to remain within the European Union and palatable to those who voted to leave We have actually a lot of industries that can work reasonably well with Europe. I think when you talk about its goods, we don't have great services agreements with the EU, but we never had. I mean, services have always been a weak point within the EU. It's a much more protectionist organization in some ways, agriculture probably people have folk memories of the endless arguments about agriculture and fish. But if you look to what's really what should be driving Britain in the future, whether it's AI, whether it's energy transitions and really making our economies more efficient. There are lots of ways. I think business in Europe quite likes on the whole Whatever the political punch of dudy, they quite like doing business with the UK. Why I said on a German sh yesterday when people were pushing back a bit I said, Welly why there so many German finance people in London? A lot of people within Labour are cockah hoop because of the result in makeer, not just because Andy Burnham is making a triumphant return to Westminster, but also because it seems to suggest that the fight is not yet fully over, that the battle has not yet been lost to Nigel Farraage and reform Do you agree with that assessment first Act I think they may have a point, we don't know. I've just come straight from an interview with Big figure in reform. Robert Jenick. Y of course, reform is going to continue to hold the position. It has, it is intensely Eururoskeptic, thinks that Europe was the cause of a lot of the UK's problems. People have very different views about that analysis. But I do think the reform slayer reputation that has attached quickly to Andy Burnham. It may be there's a bit of Burnham hypers isn't there. know it's early days, he' sort of swept Kestarma aside. But I do think Kiestarma did have trouble articulating this very stark choice, which is likely to come down. You know you do need to see off reform and reform how they may have drop in their poll leads, but they're still leading way ahead of labour and way ahead of the Conservatives. There is that sense, I think you need to have something that you're saying that is clear about the choice that faces this country. And to that extent, you know whereatever we've talked about where we should rejoin Europe half you join Europe, go into something with a different acronym. You do come down to very different views of the country from this government, certainly from Andy Burnham, whether he represents a leeague or Rain constituency, he is still Andy Burnham and reform. And I think that is going to be you know what Labour is kind of in its heart of hearts hoping for. They know that the other sort of magic Burnham stuff may not entirely come off, but I think they think he can take the fight to Farage and that he's probably a bit better and quicker in the verbal fisticoffs. So you could see Fil with them thinking, like right we can get off the ropes here. you know, we can go one more round and we might get better this time. And just finally Anne. The capitals of Europe become very used to seeing the revolving door policy at number ten over the past ten years. What do you think Europe, the European Union will make of Burnham himself? I think they're waiting to see, do they get an Andy Burnham who wants to be the face of British foreign policy and reengagement? Is the job then farmed out in the M