Long Term Geopolitical Consequences

Sky News, The full story first. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will not be as simple as Donald Trump claims. This is why When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant, you keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns. With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done. Call one eight hundred Granger, clickranger. com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done Let's be honest, if before this year you'd never heard of the Strait of Hormz, you certainly have now. Hi everyone, Neil here, and today we're going to be doing another one of your suggestions for topics to cover on This is Wh. And it's the turn of Gary Brown. He emails, What if anything are countries and companies doing so as not to be dependent on using the Strait of Hormz in the future Now that it's clear that Iran can close it whenever it wants. Thanks, Gary, and plenty more of you in fact, in the inbox also asking about the strait's security. So that will be our focus for today. And handily enough, Donald Trump has just signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran that he says means the oil will now start to flow. It's a very strong deal Nobody knows what it is, but it's very strong. and Most people seem to be very happy. Though in typical Trump's style, he doesn't seem one hundred percent convinced that Iran will play ball. It's a memorandum of understanding, and if I don't like it We'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head. So how can the strait of Hormers be made safe What's to stop around pulling the same trick again And as Gally asks, what's the alternative to passing through the strait Seaan Bell Thisky's defefense analyst Sohn, lovely to see you again, Lick. Good news all aroundound, by all accounts. Donald Trump's got a deal, there's a signature on a bit of paper somewhere. presumably that means we are just moments away from the strait of Hormw's reopening Well, yeah, I mean if as a military guy, let me paint a slightly different story. You know I've been involved in conflicts in my military career all over the place. and one of the things we regularly said, you go to war as a means to an end. It's not an end itself. You don't go to war for the sake of going to war. You create the conditions for a political solution to come about. You are talking about putting someone in a very uncomfortable position so that the negotiations go your way. Exactly't know what President Trump's state was but the fourteen pointint plan is the first time we've seen a manifestation of what good looks like because otherwise Trump would never have signed it. And I think what's fascinating in that plan, the core issue which was nuclear It doesn't feature very widely. of theent one of the center stages is the Straight of Hormz and that was not an issue before the start of the war. So it's really bizarre that people are claiming credit for putting out a fire that they started in the first place. When you say the Strait of Hormz was not an issue, I mean, basically, you mean, well it was open and tankers were able to get through. Yeah, and even worse than that. If you take us back to sort of february twenty seventh The day before President Trump launched, you had a pah state in terms of Iran. Their economy was in all sorts of trouble. There were uprisings on the street, and the Iranian government must have been very worried about its own future. Now you wind the clock forward today. Most of the points in that peace plan were about financial palatives, it was unfreezing assets, it was easing of sanctions, and this strange three hundred billion dollars fund. I still don't quite know what that's about, but all of those are meant to be helping Iran. It's not helping the Middle East countries who actually were attacked along the way. Iran now has control of the straight off homeomies, whatever is written, you can't put that genie back in a bottle And they've had an onslaught from the world's superpower And it hasn't subjugated them. What are changing fortunes for the Iranian leadership? Before we get into the strait of our mves, I mean,' the problem with the analysis, just simply the fact that you know the Iranians were not as on the back foot as you would want them to be in a negotiating process. that what is on the table right now is as a result of Iran still holding a fair few cards and the Americans clearly losing interest in an ongoing campaign I've heard a couple of people talk about the ceasefire on the eighth of April, which was I think many people saw that was the moment America woke up and went, we can't win this militarily. So we've got to find another way. I would argue actually, this war was lost on the second of March Because on the first of March, twenty four hours into the campaign, you'll remember that the American Israeli strikes wiped out the leadership, Hat Talle Harmia and all their leadership That would have left the rest of the leadership going, o, hell, what's going to happen here? If the Americans have stopped at that stage, you've got the context of uprisings, you've got the leadership weakened Now that might have incentivized to take them more seriously because you've got the threat of a big threat. The fact that America didn't, it continued with an operation. And I'm not being smarter after the event here. When I was in the military, we used to run war games around this. I have played Iran in those war games How did you go on? Well what you look at is like Klauswitz always said, donon't fight your enemy's strength, fight his weakness. So we were always pulverized by the conventional military, but the Straight of F Mz was the area that you knew you had a strangled hold on the throat of the umbilical of the global energy supplies, and that's what you leveraged. This is not a surprise that this played out this way. The question is How on earth does the American military who would have done exactly the same thing? How did they get duped into taking military action which would have ended up exactly where we are today? Am I right then to say that as a result of the fourteen pointoint plan, the biggest one of the biggest changes, if not the biggest change to the management of the Strait offormormmz, is that as a result of the negotiations between the United States and Iran Iran now has a role to play in the managing of the straight of Hormmves that it didn't possess before. So I think this is one of the fascinating parts of this deal because America has said it's completely unacceptable to have Iran charging tolls at the Straight of Hormmves But Iran's been using different language, and it does appear that that language will endure beyond the sixty days because they're effective be saying, no, no, we're not going to charge tolls. But this is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. We've clearly got to deconflict these massive tanks.s one hundred million dollars a time. There's only a two mile wide narrow gap. We need to coordinate that An administration No exactly a fee. And we'll talk to Imanis because we share the straight with them. And of course, all of a sudden, a spectra of, what do you mean by fees? And when do they suddenly become tolls? And I think that's going to be a major issue going forward because the Iranians is not going to let that slip When we say a particular water wade, the straight of ornams for example, is open. What does that mean? There has to be a level of confidence in those who are passing through it that you're going to be able to do unimeded No, I agree and there's so many layers to this. First of all, there's a minefield. A literal and a figurative one. We're correct. the question is Iran has up to five thousand mines. We don't know how many are in the southern part of the strait We believe there's about a dozen. Most of my military colleagues who know about mine clearing say it's not a difficult operation, but it would be helpful to know where they are. So the question is, is the Iranian authority going to actually be helpful? One of the things that caught my about the agreement is, of course, that the American blockade will take up to thirty days to disappear and you went Hang on a minute. I make a radio call to the boss of the ship and within two hours, he's gone. So why does it take thirty days? Now part of it appears that there's no trust between the Iranians and the Americans And therefore, if they're dragging the heels about coordination of traffic out, then America will keep some of the blockade in place because that hurts the Iranians. And all of this is designed to match the Iranian effort. And so therefore, that's why at face value, you'd think this would open in a heartbeat. It won't. The question is, some reports today are talking about to six months to clear the mininds My understanding from experts in this field that say actually it'd be less than thirty days to be able to clear those. and it isn't in Irania's interest to lay hundreds of mines in that area. so it's almost certainly that' be a relatively quick to clear that. But it is one thing though, isn't it to say that we are clearing the mines. It is another thing entirely to say the strait of Hormz is entirely free from mines. I mean, can they guarantee that? How would they do this Well, no, it's an interesting point. I think this is all about if there was a mine and if a ship did get blown up The last time we had a major chip that got, you know basically dis spilled all its oil out, one hundred million dollars worth of oil Just imagine the carnage that would be reked in that region if one of those ships was to be sunk and that oil ad across it would be a disaster not only for the Middle East, but also for Iran. So it actually isn't in Iran's interest for them to The very threat that there might be something there is all about intent. So when Iran says the strait is closed All of a sudden, the insurance market will not allow any of the ships to flow. So practically speaking, there's a bit of bluffing going on here. that actually I don't have to do anything if I'm the Ayatolla. I just have to go, No, the stade is closed and most traffic will not go through without a military escort. America has been provided that military escort for the last few weeks in the southern just around the coast of Imman But it's only about ten percent of the routine traffic. It's not a sustainable model When you're a maintenance engineer in a beverage manufacturing plant You keep production lines moving and quality on track because there is no room for slowdowns With Granger's vast selection of high quality motors, sensors, belts, and hard to find parts, you can get what you need fast and all in one place, so nothing gets in the way of getting the job done Call one eight hundred ranger, click ranger. com or just stop by Ranger For the ones who get it done. You have to believe that at least for a period of time Tankers would not wish to go through the strait without some form of military escort It can't be entirely provided by the Americans. In fact, I would suggest that the Americans don't want to be involved in doing that at all. I think Trump's actually said that. So who does Well that I'm not entirely sure that a military escort will be required. And part of that is if you put any military vessels involved, that will concern Iran. and all of a sudden now you raise the specter that something go wrong The one consistent line we're getting out of America is this is a performance based approach. So you prove you do this, then we'll do that. There are some pretty significant carrots for Iran in this deal. There's also the threat of big sticks, but quite frankly, I just cannot see America returning to conflict if Iran misbehaves because We're getting closer to the midterms. It's a sixty day window, twoo months close to the midterms. Is it really feasible that President Trump will plunge the world back into chaos? Oil prices going back up. Americans pay more than four dollar a gallon for their fuel? I just don't see it True, but at the same time, sixty days sounds like an awful long time, but it really isn't. And given the fact that the Americans are clearly maintaining a naval presence there That would suggest that the Iranians might not be as entirely candid about where the mines are. The whole process drags on. and in sixty days time, we're not looking at full reopening of the Straight of fourorm Mves. We're looking at another round of negotiations. We could be. A lot of it I think you have to look at incentives. Iran is incentivised to get the Strait of fourorm moves open. Their economy is on its knees And they need oil and they need oil exports from Karg Island, that's their main area of offload. They've got to get it through the Straight of F Mves. I mean, the beauty about this arrangement is that both sides are massively motivated to get the Straightit oform moves open again. Have we in a sense, then perhaps been lucky up until this point that the Iranians didn't realize that they could control the straight of Mves quite so easily? It won't surprise you that many of my military colleagues have been asking exactly that, if we can do war games and that's how it ends up The Iranians would have gone surely years ago would have gone actually, we can bring ourselves out and hold the world hostage Most military analyst seem to believe that that's because the Iranians would never have trusted that America didn't have an answer. And the challenge is ultimately you've got some buried fast patrol boats, you've got anti ship missiles, you've got drones, you've got mines But all of those can be taken out. They can't be properly protected. What Iran has done is hidden them very, very well be aware,ough we've talked about Hezbollah that the Mossad had been very good at infiltrating. So actually Iran would never have been quite sure whether America actually knew where all this stuff was. So if you play that card and you're wrong, suddenly all of your leverage is destroyed. As it's turned out, they were forced to go down that route. and I suspect they're quite surprised that they've still managed to stand. Now they are in the position where they can control the straight Almost whenever they choose, that's put them in a very strong position Isn't this a situation where it is actually probably down to the Gulf States to sort this one out. They are the ones with the most direct kind of financial link to the problems that have been going on since the Iran war started. They've taken pot shots from the Iranians at various points They're the ones with most to lose if this doesn't get sorted out. So Can we conceive of a role for them? you know, your Qatars, kind of your Saudis and all the rest of it in actually bringing the straight to a state of security where people can go through I think there's another option. G So if I was one of the Middle East countries, you're not short of money You need that straight to be open. How do you reduce your dependency on the straight Now, Saudi Arabia has already done that by building a massive pipeline all the way across to the Red Sea. so I can offload my oil in the Red Sea rather than east. UAE is building a pipeline south so it can bypass the straight up horm moz. Now it's not so easy for the liquid broken and gas and stuff like that. But let's face it, when you've got as much money as most of the Middle East countries, I will be looking to mitigate that risk and stop actually this becoming an issue in the future If doesn't protect you, then how do you protect yourself from the attacks? Now upntil now, the way you do that is to offer military bases for America and they provide you an umbrella How well has that work America didn't tell Bile accounts the Middle East it was going to do this, so I think they'd probably be justified and be a little bit hacked off with that. And secondly, despite having the best missile protection systems in the world in Patriot, Thard and Aeis Ballistic missilile from what effectively is a third worldld country, at least militarary from Iran, some of them got through and has caused a lot of damage for Qatar, five years worth of repairs. So I do think they'll be scratching their heads and going, how do we find a more robust security environment? and does that involve America It sounds like Gary asked an incredibly aosite question that mean so he is right that there are other options for these oil producing nations other than sticking it on tankers and shipping out that way. I mean, why have they not investigated this before? now? If you look at the geography of the region, I mean, you'd have to spend a hell of a lot of money. They are awash with money and therefore, how do you protect that How do you find other ways of offloading? And therefore, that's why Saudi has built an oil pipeline to the West. That's why UA is looking at other options. Most often they be why would we bother because we can offload ono ships? I think the more interesting question for me is those security environments, because how do you protect yourself against Iranian attack? Israel's got this golden dome, a protective shield. But the harsh reality is that ballistic missiles are very difficult to shoot down. they're very accurate and they're very fast But now you extrapolate that question here We in the UK have no protection against thoseort missiles. So know Iran has been as a third world nation, firing load of these missiles. Russia, our principal threat, is not a third world nation. And therefore, if they were to fire a single missile this way, we'd be completely vulnerable. That's the lesson I think we should be taking from this. We've talked about the literal minding field of the straight and fororeign mo. Let's talk about the figurative one and imagine a set of circumstances in which ship captains, insurance brokers have the confidence that ships can now pass through the strait If a British flag vessel passing through gets stopped by an Iranian boat, What happens Who's responsible? Wh steps in Tinderbox That's the trouble. And you remember there was a load of piracy going on wasn't there a year or so back. That was solved by putting a few special forces onto each of the vessels. Do doesnn't cost you much to do that. withith guns. And as soon as these fast patrol boats approach They get shot up. There might not be very good rules of engagement around that and it might not be morally or ethically right, but you're in the middle of nowhere, noobody's recording it. It's solved the problem in a heartbeat. Now whether or not some of the oil tankers now have to have some form of defensive capability on board. I honestly belie that's not the answer because ultimately if you're trying to defend yourself, you le into initiative to attackers, and there's lots of anti ship missiles that could be used or whatever, Ultimately you've got to solve this source. Trump walking away now is not because he's solved the problem of the Middle East. It's because domestically this is just getting really difficult for him to endure and he needs to find an elegant way out. If you look at those fourteen points Most of them look like America's capitulated rather than Iran. Totally. But we find ourselves in a situation where the Iranians have discovered just how much power they actually wield Gevin they've done this once What is ultimately, to stop them from doing it again, particularly if the taps are not turned on quite as quickly as you'd like in terms of that three hundred billion dollars fund, wherever it is coming from I think that's the big issue because you can't put the juny back in the bottle. Now that Iran has demonstrated it can close the straits, it can continue to do that. our success. Whether it's American or British or whatever, trying topose get leaders out of the way, whether it's in Iraq, whether it's in Libya, hasn't been that good because you can't cut off the head of the snake, put a McDonald's on every street corner and give women the vote and suddenly declare success. It doesn't work like that. It. Iran has its own way of running a country. It has got oil, and how do we use that carratin stick clearly hasn't worked. But we're going to see the Trump administration claiming this is victory. that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened through diplomacy rather than necessarily at the end of the battle of a gun But we shouldn't forget that, which we discussed when we started. you know, the strait of Hormz was not an issue. before the Iran warar It is an issue now and it will continue to be an issue for a long, long time One of the things I think that's been fascinating is watching the body language at the G seven of some of the international leaders because Trump that press conference that he gave at the end He's famous for doing rambling press conferences, but that was just full of contradictions. And there was lots of rolling of eyes of the leaders behind him sort of going, You got yourself into this mess. We've now got to deal with it. And I do think there are some profound implications for this, not least of which