Future of Iranian Resistance and Governance

The nearly eighty year old president of the United States is in France for the G seven summit. Reporters keep asking about the peace deal, he says he'll be signing with Iran this Friday, mostly because no one knows the deets. onene point seven billion dollars in cash, green cash from banks. But the president wants to talk about Barack Obama. They tried to bribe their way out of it And you know what Iranians did. They laughed at Obama and they said he's a stupid son of a bitch. Why so salty, sir? Oh, JK Rowlling, I know why. President Trump didn't achieve any of his objectives in the war with Iran. A war that's cost Americans maybe one hundred billion dollars so far. And Trump might end up giving Iran three hundred billion dollars to settle this war Compare that to Obama's one point seven billion Hundreds of millions of dollars Iran won the war coming up on today Explained from Vox. Okay, thank you very much, Ria Support for today exxplain comes from service now. 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Ding ding, ding ding, ding ding, bom Okay, it's today it's flained Nargas Bojoli recently co wrote a piece titled Iran's newew Grand Strategy in Foreign Affairs. Here's a sample. Rather than breaking Iran, the Cucible of war has transformed it in unanticipated ways. To survive and establish new strategic advantages, the Islamic Republic had to adapt and innovate Changing how it waged war ran the state and managed society. We wanted to hear more, and we started with the obvious The United States is taking a L Yeah. well, I think part of the part of the part of the problem is we didn't really ever know what this war was about There were a few days when this war was about, Let's bring freedom to the Iranian people. To the great, proud people of Iran I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Then there were a few days when this war was about, you know, the death blows to the Islamic Republic. A vicious group of very hard Terrible And then they were also, you know, like this is going to prevent Iran from making a nuclear weapon. I'll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon. Even though in June, we supposedly obliterated their nuclear weapons program. Completely and totally obliterated. Their sites were obliterated. Obliterated, totally obliterated the sites The order we received from our commander in chief was focused It was powerful. And it was clear It was never really clear what this was really about. We had huge decapitation strikes that happened across Irad on the first days of this war that took out essentially the founding generation of the revolution. Iran's formerly suupreme leader Aa toa A ine. is dead. We thought we were somewhere where the Islamic Republic was on its like, you know, on its last legs and all we had to do was push it a little bit more. When we are finished, take over your government. it will be yours to take. And so what we have now in what are we in June of twenty twenty six, three and a half months after this war started, we have a completely new and younger generation in charge in Iran. That is bolder. That is not as afraid of the United States And then on the other hand, you also have obviously the trait of hormones, which was not under necessarily this kind of Iranian control before, now is. And you have Iran Again, putting its will and basically saying Israel needs to pull back from Lebanon. The end of the war in Lebanon is quite connected to Put an end of the war on Iran These were conditions that Iran could have never made in February of twenty twenty six. And now what we have coming out of this war is a stronger and more entrenched political establishment that leans heavily towards the IRGC and you know Iranian sort of military That is bolder and that now has sort of shown itself as being a key pillar of West Asia. That's going to create a fundamentally different Middle East going forward. Yeah, tell us more about this new regime because I think everyone's kind of heard Oh yeah, new Ayatolla even more hardline than previous Ayatollah. Does that sum up this new generation that's in charge of Iran now or is there more to it There's a lot more to it. So first of all, I think one of the problems we've always had with Iran here is we think about it as a dictatorship, as a country led by like one man at the top. That was part of the reason why they thought that they could kill the father, Ali Khami, and then the system would crumble under him. But you have a lot of discussion and debate all throughout the political system and throughout society in Iran. It is a highly dynamic system and a highly dynamic society What we now have is, yes, we have the son of the former leader Mushab Aahaman, who is now in charge But what he represents is a whole scale generational shift that's happened in Iran. We have a younger generation that first of all, Grew up pretty much after the revolution in Iran had already happened, their side was already in power. That brings a certain kind of confidence and swagger to it. This generation Thoughts The United States and Israel in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon. And from their calculations, they won in those theaters. So they are also a generation that is not afraid of confronting the Americans and the Israelis They experienced themselves on the battlefield, how they were able to push back the U. S. military, for example, from Iraq and so on and so forth. So there's a boldness to this generation their father's generation came about in the sixties and seventies. Yes, they were anti imperialist, Yes, they fought against the shah and sort ofving the United States involved in Iran's affairs. But still there was a level of respect for the might of what US power meant. And psychologically a sort of inferiority complex. You're now dealing with a generation that doesn't have that That's fundamentally different What has happened in Iran is now you have Gen Xers and Elder millennials now running the show. I mean, this is one of the reasons they were able to beat out the propaganda game. Are you talking about like the LeGo AI videos? Yeah, the Lego videos make Israel great again govern is running back Which were funny. were really funny and they're still putting them out, right? And they're they're utilizing trapp songs and like rap lyrics and you can tell it's young. started the war You thought you would win not look at the mess that your country is in. L at it. I mean, if anyone spends enough time on the internet This is not contrived. This is a generation that grew up online There is a particular kind of shift that has happened that now Iran is being led by people who are of the twenty first century Whereas a lot of these other countries are still being led by people who are fundamentally formed in the twentieth century. Okay, Mommer. I mean, how does the fact that Iran is now being led by G Xors millennials and not boomers like it was before or like our country currently is Effect the new state of affairs in the country. I mean, what does that mean? for the way the country is being governed internally. This generation is not interested in advancing the revolution anymore, right? The revolution happened. It's a fact And now they're interested in governing a state. What this war has done is it's shown that there's a technocratic class in Iran that is of the younger generation that has now come to the forefront that was able to not only execute this war in a very efficient and I' never like to call wars clean because they're not clean, but in a way that like made sense to people and they could see what was happening And You hear from Iranians over and over again, that besides the sounds of the bombs, we didn't feel like we were in war. There was no shortages of anything. And so now what this new generation is attempting to do is to say, we will bring that technocratic expertise to not just our military affairs, but to running the country itself. And that is sort of the big question right now is can they deliver on that How has this new government shifted the balance of power in the region The United States began to set up its security architecture in the Middle East starting with the First Gulf War, in which it really began to establish its permanent military bases in the Arab Gulf regions. promise was Bring in U. S. military bases We will guarantee your safety, and we will also bring you into the American fold You'll have great business opportunities, you'll make a ton of money What we now see is that the Gulf understands that having American bases is actually a liability because the United States started a war without consulting them It was not able to protect any of these Gulf countries and their economies. Iran is the size of Western Europe. I feel like we forget that a lot in the United States But the reality is is Iran is a massive country geographically It's a massive country population wise. And so the Gulf countries need to figure out a way to live with Iran is no longer guaranteed through like big brother protection of the United States that actually didn't materialize. So moving forward, first of all, it seems like the Gulf Arab countries have come to this realization some quicker than others, but in essence they are making payments to Iran now. they're figuring out ways to be able to sort of C live with them into the future without Iran being isolated like it was in the past That's the huge difference. The Persian Gulf region is fundamentally transformed. It will no longer be place where the Americans can do whatever they want It will now be a place where Iran will reassert its hegemony over that region. Iran sees itself as having won this war And because this generation is bolder, it's actually gonna to be like, we're not gonna budge. If that means your economy is gonna to hurt more, fine. you've been hurting our economy forty seven years. We're just gonna play a game of chicken and see who blinks first That's this new generation that we're dealing with Nargus Bjoli is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Now that we've heard about the Iranian government, we want to hear about the Iranian people and we will. when we're back supportupport for today exxplain comes from home sererve. owning home is a joy. You get your little piece of the American dream, but then it turns out that you have to pay for repairs. What? Repair costs hit hard and fast when you're a homeowner and that's where Home Serve comes in. Regular homeowner insurance doesn't cover a lot of the day to day wear and tear, plumbing failures, H vAac breakdowns, electrical issues. When those happen, you're often on your own. Home Serve can let you get help fast. 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ServiceN's AI specialists are different, they say. They're not a tool. Think of them as digital teammates who actually do the work from start to finish, cases get resolved Qquests get processed loops get closed, and most importantly, they say no extra work for you because when you can truly delegate to AI, you can get back to the work only you can do the work that requires a person with ideas and judgment. and you know, a pulse. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit sererviceNow. com Somaushnikoni Btash Rja M Rz. You are listening to today explain My name is Holly Dagras. I am a senior fellow at the DC based Think tank, the Washington Institute, a curator of the Iranist newewsletter on Substack. I'm also Iranian American and spent my formative years in Iran And who were you rooting for last night Iran played New Zealand? I mean I know it's a controversial topic right now, but I was cheering for Iran But you felt complicated about it? or no. I think there's just complex feelings right now because of everything that's happened from January startarting with the unprecedented massacre of anti regime protesters to the word itself, but you know there was a time when Tam Medli as we call them or the national team in Persian, used to unite Iranians from Tehran to Trangelis. And I grew up in LA before moving to Iran. And I remember the nineteen ninety eight World Cup when the U.S and Iran played. Iranians were dancing on the street in Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles, and I remember my cousins telling me it was the first time Iranians in Iran were dancing on the street which was an act of defiance in its own and such a shock at the time And then years later, of course, I were live in Iran and actually take part in two of those celebrations for two different World Cups. You know, there's a lot of feelings there Well, we just spent a bunch of time, Holly talking about The new government in Iran and how it's been operating since this war began We're coming to you to ask what life has been like for the Iranian people since this war started. And it's hard to know because It's been hard to access the Iranian people Throughout this war, what we've really struggled with is getting a pulse on the Iranian people, as you noted, and that was because There was a state imposed internet blackout. It was the fifth Iteration and the longest globally according to the internet monitor net blocks. And so for people like me who obviously can't travel back to Iran and relies on Iranian like monitoring Persian language social media or even texting on messaging apps like WhatsApp or Tlegram with people inside Iran. I effectively and not just me, but roughly four to ten million members of the Iranian diaspora were caught off from contact with their friends and loved ones in Iran, and that was really gutting. And That being said, I should probably go back in time and explain what the other ones were We first saw this happen during the bloody november twenty nineteen protests, which security forces killed fifteen hundred protesters and used the dark cover of an internet shutdown to cover it up And then we saw again during the twenty twenty two Woman Life Freedom upprising And then it was these two wars, one being the twelve D war in june twenty twenty five and of course, this recent war. And then the one I would say was the worst of it in terms of communications blackout was in January. And that was during the unprecedented massacre of thousands of protesters at the hands of security forces In a span of forty eight hours Do Iranians find a way to sort of cope with these internet blackouts? Is there I don't know, a sense of routine at this point Well There's several things happening there. I think coping is a It's a hard word to use. justust imagine your phone stops working. L as any American who can't message their family or friends that are maybe living in other countries. they can't go on Twitter or Instagram Maybe you can't watch Netflix anymore. And so like that feels like the least of your worries when your country's big b, but I take the point. no, but I'm just trying to give you a sense of like how it feels to not have access. And believe it or not That was the sentiment Iranians felt So One of the big impacts of the internet shutdown started with really having deep ramifications for the Iranian economy. The internet blackout during the war cost according to an Iranian Busmen eighty million dollars daily and twentyw percent of Iran's workforce lost their jobs during the blackout When and why Did this internet blackout come to an end exactly So it came to an end on may twenty sixth. So once I think that the Islamic Republic felt that the negotiations for the Marema end of of understanding we're going somewhere. U I got the sense that that's when they felt comfortable enough to lift the switch and turn the internet back on. and it also coincided with comments from President Master Pzeskion. but I think it was overall a decision made by the Supreme National Security Council because I think for them they were alleging it was on the purpose of national security, but I would argue otherwise What did you hear from people once this blackout was lifted One of the things that I saw that stood out to me, someone said, Hello from Iran's prison after three months. We came from solitary confinement to the genereneral ward Wow and I saw people start sharing stories, sharing things that they remember from the war or their anti regime sentiment, some Diaspor Iranians begin to post like often humorously about what Iranians inside Iran missed. So they used a hashtag Vakiish Saman Aboudid. When you word here and they started telling them, well this happened and that happened. and some of them were taking jobs at the clerical establishment or at pro war anti war Iranians U There was a lot of humor in that moment, but also a frustration of feeling like their rights were taken away because they were unable to access the outside world. But there was also a real fear. I remember that someone started saying maybe a week after the internet went back online. Th she lived in the West and she was saying her mom kept calling every hour. And she's like, Mom, why do you keep calling? Everything's fine here. She's like, I'm afraid that I won't see her face for a long time again M I mean, I imagine there's residual fears that They could just hit the kill switch again, right? whenever they feel like it in two weeks and two months and two years Absolutely. And you know, just the other week, we had these tit for Tat strikes that happened The first I think was the one between Iran and Israel over Lebanon. and I remember some of the commentary at that time was this real ep fear and I'll read some of what Iranians said at during that forty eight hour span where they thought that there might be a resumption of the war So someone said, please don't start a war. I don't want to be unemployed for another three months Another Iranian said, I'm another internet shutdown in Iran away from a psychiatric hospital. And then there was, I'm not afraid of missiles. I'm afraid of going offline And I'm scared to sleep and wake up in the morning to no internet. And then There were other ones that were Iranians that were just You know, using dark humor or just making light of the situation. And these also stood out to me Now is the best time to use the excuse of the internet shutown to get that pretty girl's number And then there was I'm against war for now because I can't accept that I've seen three wars and in all three I've been single And then finally I said to my friend and Iran, what are you doing? He said, downloading and saving porn. Oh my God. I was worried about another internet shutdown I mean, presumably the government knows this sentiment exists that the internet is tantamount to liberty for the Iranian people. And as we heard earlier in the show, this government for all its faults is evidently interested in the work of governance. Does that mean they might get the message that these internet blackouts are wildly unpopular. and maybe keeping the internet free ish and open ish is a ticket to keeping your people reasonably content I think if they were in the business of doing the kind of governance that that their people wanted. they wouldn't have had these cyclical anti regime protests over the years. But to your point The truth is I think they really after the three months and once they felt comfortable enough with the ceasefire negotiations They turned the internet back on because they felt safe But when I look at the big picture for them, This shutdown and the ones before it is really not a matter of national security but one about controlling the narrative and also making sure that Iranians' voices aren't heard by the outside world. At the end of the day This is a an authoritarian government that has not had the interests of the Iranian people at heart. They've been dealing with systemic mismanagement, corruption, and repression for decades, and that's why people have been going to the streets for years And I'll quote Iran based dissident rapper Tumar Salihi when the news emerged that the memorandum of understanding was being finalized