Grooming a successor for the regime

Some of the most enduring images of North Korea are these satellite pictures taken at night, you've probably seen them. The neighboring countries are ablaze with the lights of cities and towns, but once you hit North Korea's borders, it's just black. Everything's dark. North Korea is very poor and has very poor infrastructure that includes electricity because of years of sanctions from the US and other countries aimed at punishing it for its nuclear program Until now, that's how we've understood North Korea. But the Wall Street Journal recently reported a staggering statistic. Last year in the capital Pyongyang, more than ten thousand homes were built. That's more than were thrown up in either Los Angeles or Chicago. Something is happening in North Korea. The image that's been painted for us by recent visitors to the North Korean capital is an economy that's on the updick, an economy that's thriving. And that was hugely surprising to us. 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Instead of second guessing or searching for hours, you get clarity and can hire the right pro with confidence. For your next home project, try Thumbtack. They know homes Tired of the R Pro today This is todayod Explained Tim Martin is the Korea Bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal, and he recently co wrote this great piece about a completely unexpected development in North Korea It's a North Korea that Really compared to just a few years ago is modernizing. You can see smartphones on the streets. there's More cars, there's traffic jams, there new street laws telling North Koreans not to jaywalk. There are so many vehicles. North Korea is brighter from outer space at night. So this is a completely different picture And then certainly what maybe the world thinks about North Korea. And it's even a different picture than people who've been to North Korea many times and hadn't gone in many years Just five years ago, Kim Jong un at an important congressional partarty meeting hand said, I'm sorry, the economy is not working. Our policy has failed on the economy. Oiindan Ozo, Pzonadi orabois. He shed tears in public I and Davea Putin's N hisa. O even when J' buildilt three baro He admitted In a rare way for a North Korean leader, We have food shortages. We are struggling. And then right on the heels of this was COVID. North Korea has no Because it's so poor, it doesn't have great public infrastructure. So anytime there's a pandemic or abroad healthcare, they have to shut everything down. So they closed its borders And that cut off their trade particularly with China, and that really affixiated the economy. So even by North Korea's own sort of unique standards of economic vibrancy, they were at a weak point. And this is where Kim Jong un was five years ago in a shocking way, issuing a M culpa to his people, saying we're not doing well. And what we've seen over those five years It's a bit of luck, It's a bit of focus. It's a bit of Kim Jong un wanting to reassert control over his economy, but they've had multiple ways to to produce this economic rebound North Korea got a break, if you will, with Russia's invasion to Ukraine What did North Korea do They first began offering munitions, supplying munitions en mas to Russia's war machine We see how much military support Russia gets from North Korea, North Korea is providing significant. munions to Russia and other weapons. And the two countries signed a mutual defense pact and that laid the legal groundwork for The North Kore Russia relationship to a whole new level. Now to a development in the war in Ukraine. The U. S. State Department says there are signs that North Korean troops are in Russia. According to Ukrainian intelligence, Pyongyang is sending Up to thirty thousand more troops to bolster Russian forces along the front lines. North Korea initially sent some eleven thousand troops to Russian territory last year. And that was deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to the Russian frontlines to fight the Ukrainians and this provided Putin and Russia something it really needed bodies and soldiers And North Koreans fought and died for this war with Ukraine on Russia's behalf. So This injected billions of dollars into the regime And to give you some perspective North Korea's GDP is estimated to be about twenty seven billion dollars annually. and They've accrued, according to some estimates, more than ten billion dollars just in the past two and a half years or so..' a significant amount of money or assets flowing into North Korea. So the Russia part is very important. There are two other pieces to this. China is North Korea's main benefactor and trading partner It warehouses uh, uh, many of Kim Jong un's cyber warriors who againain, to the point of North Korea's relatively small GDP, which is notot even one percent of what the US's GDP is These hackers and cyber operatives bring in at least one billion dollars a year to the regime. And North Korea has also shown itself to be the world's best thief of cryptocurrency. They've pull off multiple massive heists of exchanges you know, even over a billion dollars in a single action All right, so tell me about what this looks like on the ground. Let's say I'm in the capital Pyongyang and I'm looking around. what might I see there that I wouldn't have seen five years ago It would be noisy There's So much construction happening in Pyongyang And it would be noisy not only from the construction and the bulldozers, but also there'd be a lot more cars on the streets. and not just unrecognizable North Korean brands. you're seeing Chinese EV's and We talked with Westerners who had traveled dozens of times to North Korea before the pandemic And these same visitors went back and Pyongyang, at least looks like any other major city in that Lots of people have smartphones. The necks are craned looking at their screens This just shows North Korea has more resources, more of a technological digital ecosystem. and they're trying to put themselves more on par with the rest of the world Okay, so there is a thing that sometimes happens in countries that put themselves on par with the rest of the world, which is you get richer, life gets more convenient and you start thinking a little bit outside of, you know the box that you've been living in, right? So you're talking about smartphones, rideheling apps, digital payments. This is a country that is mododernizing very rapidly, does that mean North Koreans are starting to make any demands. I mean, this is a very, very repressive country. It's sometimes harder to oppress people when they've got iPhones. In fact, I think the opposite is occurring. Wow. North Korea has learn from countries say like China, and you'd think, well, if you have smartphones, you can access the internet and you can learn about the world and This is the complete opposite in North Korea. They are using Kology to tighten its digital news over its population. North Korea's smartphone user doesn't have free run at the internet and information. Everything is tightly controlled by the regime. You're only allowed to access an internet that North Korea chooses. Th are the North Korean curated sites for you to go to. Th theseese are the apps that we can have you have access to certain things you try to text into your phone, like South Korea, for instance, auto corrects to the way North Korea refers to South Korea, which is southern Chooson, the smartphones anyy given moment will take a random snapshot of what's on your screen. If a police officer stops you on the street and says, showh me your phone, which is a fairly frequent occurrence thenen you're subjected to this audit of what you look at on your phone I think Kim Jong un is very happy for more North Koreans to have smartphones because again, it allows this surveillance capability to be supercharged H Is the economic boom benefiting ordinary North Koreans, all North Koreans or just kind of like a handful of elite up at the top It is concentrated in the North Korean capital and It's not like Hey, I would love a view of the beautiful river in downtown Pyongyang, so I'm gonna move there. Now, only people connected to the party People with money, people with political connections can even live in the capitol. So if you leave Pyongyang The country still is very poor, malnourished, half half the population, doesn't have enough food So yes, it's disproportionateally going to Pyongyang and the elites, but it's not the only area where North Korea is seeing growth If the economic growth is based on a war that will someday hopefully end and someome scams, however successful. Is that really a recipe for A strong economic future for this country? Many of these drivers could be fleeting for sure. Russia's war machine could rev if there's an end to the war in Ukraine, but I think there would be a long tail there in terms of Russia wanting a cheap way to replenish many of its munitions How sustainable is this? I think Kim Jong un has A degree of comfort, politically, militarily And now economically And that allows him to sort of call the shots. Does he want to reengage with the US? Does he even need a sanctions deal at this point One of the benefits of where Kim Jongan has his economy at the moment is He can do what he wants. There aren't tough questions being asked. He's controlling the inflow and outflow of massive parts of the economy If you imagine a worldld where sanctions are lifted and tons of outside capital from South Korea or the U.S. or Japan is flowing in. These are foreigners, bringing the investment, snooping around, seeing if their money is being properly deployed. That's a risk to Kim Jong un Ultimately, there's probably a way he tries to achieve an economy that has outsiders coming in and investing. in the country that can lift more of the country out of poverty, but I think for right now, he's very comfortable That's Tim Martin, the Korea Bureau Chief for the Wall Street Journal. Coming up, Kim Jong un's heir apparent. She's stylish. She can fire a rifle. She can drive a tank. 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Get your free custom quote in about two minutes at fetchpet. com slash save Fetchpet dot com slash save Fetch. Lve longer That's nice This is Today Explained I'm Anna Fi Field. I am a journalist and I wrote a book called The Great Successor, the Divinely Pfect Destiny of brilliant comrade Kim Jong Un Anna, there is a girl who we've seen in photos alongside Kim Jong un. We've seen her at missile launches, military parades, other big state events. This girl is his daughter. What do we know about her and why is her presence at his side getting so much attention? Well, there's a lot we don't know about her, but what we think we know is that her name is Kim Ju A and that she is about thirteen years old. And we have a very unusual source for this information, which is Dennis Rodman. Oh, who became the first American to meet with the new leader of North Korea The wild child of basketball Dennis Rodman. I say, your grandfather and your father. There some bad things. I said about you trying to traange something. When Kim Jong un was just in the beginning of his reign, there was an effort by some Americans to kind of reach out to him and see if they could get in contact, find out a little more about this guy. and everybody knew that Kim Jong un loved the Chicago Blls So first of all, a request was made to Michael Jordan. He was not interested in going to North Korea for some reason, but Dennis Rodman was up for going to North Korea. I'm sorry that my country and your country are not On good terms, work for me Sir Thank you. You're a friend for life. And that started this weird period of kind of basketball diplomacy when the United States main envoy to North Korea was a washed out basketball star. And when the basketballer went to North Korea about twelve years ago and met Kim Jong un, he was also introduced and he held this baby In an interview with the Guardian, Rodman filled the newshipper in on the young dictator's parenting skills. He's a good dad and has a beautiful family. I held their baby Ju and spoke with Miss Ree as well. For him to open his heart and his mind to get me his daughter. for the first time in history, I hold his kid. And so he was told at the time that the baby was about one year old and her name was Kim Ju A So that is how we base our knowledge of her name, notot the most reliable source, but the North Koreans have never named her in state media or anywhere. So that's the name we're going with until they tell us otherwise But the reason she's gathered so much attention over the past couple of years is that she has emerged at her father's side repeatedly and in the most unusual circumstances. She has been going to intercontinental missile launches. At the launch of North Korea's newest long range missile, a strangely tender moment om Kim Jong un hand in hand with his young daughter, the first time any of his children have been officially seen in public. So it's very significant to see how senior North Korean officials will shake her hand, bow to her, be very respectful towards her despite her being a child. She's been out with her father on a bunch of occasions often Wearing similar outfits like a leathather bomber jacket like he was wearing when they drove a tank together. So very unusual daddy daughter outings for a thirteen year old. And this of course has stoked a lot of speculation that she is his heir apparent and he wants her to take over the family business, which is running a totalitarian regime Yes, it is indeed a family business. He took over, Kim Jong un took over from his father. and you and others have written about how He was kind of kept hidden before he was announced as the next leader of North Korea. Why do you think Kim Jong un is being so public with his own kid, given that the way he came up was different Yeah, well Kim Jong un is the third generation leader of North Korea. so they've only had a transition twice before, so there's really no set way of doing this. but with Kim Jong un's father, he spent twenty thirty years being promoted through the ranks and appearing in public as a full grown man to get this sense of legitimacy, the idea that he was the next leader of North Korea But with Kim Jong un, it was extremely rushed. his father had a stroke in two thousand eight. Now South Korean officials are saying that Kim had brain surgery after suffering a stroke about august fifteenth and died at the end of twenty eleven. Kim Jong Iil died aged sixty nine of a heart attack on december seventeenth, according to state media In Pyongyang, tears for their supreme leader North Koreans lined up to mourn the death of Kim Jong Father Genal, where are you Wail? drrown men, many in uniform, lubbered like babies. So really Kim Jong un was unveiled to the public in two thousand nine and then had this extremely fast rolling out kind of deboo period where he was very, very quickly promoted through the ranks, made a general given political office in the Workers Party of Korea, the ruling partarty. There is only one. He is truly not a ready for primeime player. The Chinese themselves are a little worried about whether he's really up to the task. So it seemed to be white hairy for a while there. like it wasn't clear that he was going to be able to win the support of these octogenearian apparachs who'd been there for decades running the system. So I can only kind of deduce from this now that Kim Jong un wants to make sure that his ear doesn't go through the same very rushed difficult process. so It's not like, I mean, Kim Jong un is still in his mid forties, although he doesn't look particularly healthy, but it's not likely that he's about to hand over leadership anytime soon. But I think he's probably laying the groundwork for in thirty or forty years for his daughter to take over because it would be an extremely difficult thing for this dynastic communist monarchy to go move to a fourth generation, but even more so for a woman to take over in a society that is extremely patriarchal When did her appearances start? When did people start saying, it looks like this man wants his daughter to take over Yeah, it was about almost three years ago that Kim Ju A started appearing in public And at the beginning, there was quite a lot of skepticism all talk about what she was doing there, why he was bringing her out to all these missile launches. Kim J happens to be the best secret weapon that Pyongyang has right now because Chairman Kim Jong un has been afraid of losing the world's attention. He also doesn't want to present anything that is threatening to him And so having a young girl as his potential successor removes any threats. It's not like there' going to be clicks forming around a thirteen year old girl. Part of it is he could be trying to show a softer face to the leadership and to the people. And I think that's partly because it's very unusual to take your eleven year old to a missile launch Yeah But also because it just seemed completely beyond the pale that even in North Korea that he would try to promote a young girl as the leader of North Korea. But as she has taken on more and more appearances, as she's growing up in the public eye, she's been called the kind of the beloved daughter in the state propaganda in North Korea It has seemed more likely that he is grooming her and preparing the one percent in Pyongyang who keep him in power for the idea that she will one day take over. So it's gone from being quite unlikely to seeming increasingly inevitable that he will try at least to have her take over. Does he have other children Again, another thing we don't know. Wow. Wow. I mean, the South Korean intntelligence Service didn't even know how to spell Kim Jong un's name until the North Koreans revealed it in the state propaganda. You know There is no human intelligence on North Korea, so there is so much we don't know Given that North Korea is a patriarchal society and that sexism exists everywhere in the world, and that this girl is very young. Conident are you that if North Korea, if something happens to Kim Jong un, North Korea's military and single party and elites would actually rally behind this kid? Well, I mean, I guess it depends on when it happens. I should say, you know, I didn't think Kim Jong un could do it. you know, I didn't think that the old guard would accept this