Trump's Legacy and Regional Geopolitics

This is the Guardian. Sometimes he affects not to really care about the state of Homers, and other times he seems almost desperate to get this resolved. And so we did a little detour? And it's working out very nicely. They have no navy, they have no Air Force they have no Anti-aircraft equipment. We are seeing a Trump that's less worried about concerns back home because after all he's not gonna stand for election himself, and someone who is more concerned about the legacy he leaves on the world stage. Comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days, and more to Alexander the Great and Napoleon. Which is worrying for all of us. Donald Trump has launched a new operation, Project Freedom, to try and reopen the Strait of Hamouse. But could it cause a major re-escalation of the war with Iran? Bring an end to the ceasefire. From The Guardians Today in Focus, this is the latest with me, Lucy Half. Well joining me down the line from Jerusalem is Julian Borger, our senior international correspondent. Thanks for dialing in, Julian. It's lovely to have you on the show. So it's now nearly a month since the ceasefire was agreed between the US and Israel and Iran, and in sort of military terms things felt like they were settling. down, but there has been this continued tension over the Strait of Humuz, this vital crossing where one fifth of the world's oil uh passes through that has caused such damage to the world's economy with a a blockade imposed by either side there. There has been a a reescalation with the US sending in the last twenty four hours ships to the strait. U Iran is now saying things haven't even begun. Yeah, absolutely, because what this new initiative does is it brings US warships close to Iranian uh ships, small boats, drones, and so as they're in proximity to each other, uh, in a very tight waterway, then the the chances of something blowing up are are much greater than they were yesterday. Okay, well that sounds very alarming. This is a new initiative announced by the US yesterday by Donald Trump called Project Freedom. What does this actually entail? Well, what they're offering is a an alternative route out of the Strait of Homoz, uh that would go well south of the established uh shipping channels and kind of hug the coast uh and go within Amani territorial waters. And what they're saying to the ships uh that are as trapped in the Gulf is if you follow this route, we'll be watching you. We can protect you from afar, but we have lots of things in the air, we have helicopters and planes and anti drone capabilities. And we will also help guide you through what is a very slight per perilous and narrow channel to get out of the straight and to escape the gulf. U S bet is the shipping companies and also the crews on these ships are desperate enough to take that risk. Uh under US protection. Yeah, because there's a real human aspect to this story as well, isn't there, Julian, in the sense that there are at least eight hundred ships currently trapped in the Strait of Hamouse and have been stuck for, you know, nearly three months now with crews of around twenty thousand people. Do you think this will stand any chance of succeeding? Yeah, I think there there is a chance. I think what shipping owners are are doing at the moment is watching what happens to the first few uh ships. So two have been confirmed so far, seeing what happens and see if other ships get out, then it's possible that others will decide they were gonna take the chance just to get their ships out and to get their crews out. But at the moment, on the whole, the shipping owners, from what we we hear and so that the you know the sure insurance companies are very cautious about this. What they want and what they're holding out for is an agreement between Iran and the US that they will both uh lift their blockades and let all the all the shipping out and let and open the straight again. that's what Iran has put on on the table, the kind of mutual lifting, but without any discussion about the other issues like nuclear and security. And that's something that the US has not gone for. Instead they've gone for this sort of more unilateral uh solution of trying to put a channel out of the strait without Iran's permission. Yeah, and and that's what the international community certainly wants as well, a sense of US Iranian cooperation to reopen the Strait of Hamous, not this risk of conflict, as you say, with these warships in very close proximity to each other. So Why has Trump gone for this unilateral approach, do you think? Is it because oil prices have shot to as high as a hundred and fourteen dollars a barrel? Is that what's driving it, do you think? Or is there something else that we can read into his psyche? Well, uh you know, sometimes he affects not to really care about the state of Homer's and he says, Well, uh high oil prices uh help uh US oil producers. And other times he seems almost desperate to get this resolved because petrol prices in the US are beginning to buy. Also he has a trip going to to China. And to you know, the Chinese government, uh, a major importer of uh Iranian oil. buys about eighty percent of Iranian oil is not happy about what it what is happening. And and Trump had a whole agenda about what he wanted to talk about in Beijing. Uh, but now it looks like, you know, if the situation is unresolved. gonna be just answering questions about the Strait of Humuz and beyond the the back foot. So you know, he is under pressure to get something done to to to to move the status quo. Yeah, and and facing pressure not just internationally, but also domestically, where he's facing record approval rating, six in ten Americans now disapproved for his presidency, which will be very worrying for him as we approach the November midterms. Is that playing into all of this decision making basically to to to speed things up in a war that has proved much more complex than perhaps he and his Secretary of Defence Pete Hegsath anticipated. Clearly they were expecting a quick win. uh regime change within weeks, this is what, you know, in in particular Israel promised was gonna happen. Hasn't worked out like that. But it hasn't quite worked out as as many Trump watchers would have imagined too. They imagined that he would fold over high oil prices, uh inflation and popularity. And he so far he hasn't. He's stuck with this demand That Iran uh gives up its nuclear program, its uranium enrichment program altogether, so far, you know, has been fairly inflexible over that. And so we are seeing something a bit different. Maybe a Trump that's less worried about political concerns back home because after all he's not gonna stand for election himself. And Trump is usually all about himself and someone who is more concerned uh about the kind of legacy he leaves on the world stage. Uh there was a recently a very disturbing article in the Atlantic magazine which said he's less comparing himself to Washington and Lincoln these days and more to Alexander the Great, Julius Caesar and Napoleon, which is worrying for all of us. And this idea of what impact you leave on the world stage when you're gone. Yeah, a terrifying prospect, Julian. So you mentioned Israel and and obviously this being an Israeli uh initiative in the first instance or or ch or Trump entering this war under pressures from Netanyahu's government to do so. Where does Israel stand in all this now? Well Israel is a bit out of the loop at the moment, uh, because they had promised that regime change would happen relatively quickly. It didn't. And as the war has gone on, uh Israel has found itself more and more out of the picture. It doesn't get briefings on the on the peace talks as far as You know, we know from the Israeli press quoting senior IDF officials. And so it's not been consulted except when it comes to Lebanon. where Trump has sort of imposed a ceasefire, a partial ceasefire at least, on uh the Israelis, which they are chafing uh under. Uh but at the moment they are sort of out of the picture, but very much. willing to get back into the picture if full scale war with Iran. uh restarts, uh the IDF i i is telling people they have a lot of targets yet to hit. was a strategic aim to uh weaken Iran permanently and as far as the IDF are concerned is the job half done. Julian thank you for your time and thank you for your reporting. Thank you. That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Julian Borger, the Guardian's senior international correspondent. You can keep up with his reporting over at thegardian.com. Before we go, I just wanted to tell you about a new video podcast that our New York office is launching. It's called Stateside with Kai and Carter and it's hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman. Each week they're going to be making sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. The show will feature conversations with some of the smartest thinkers and reporters, not just from The Guardian, but across the world. It's launching on the 13th of May with episodes every Monday, Wednesday and Friday. You can find it in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. Thanks for listening to this episode of The Latest. Today in Focus will be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning. The latest will be back tomorrow morning. night. This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Briany Moore and Sam Grue. The lead producer was Zoe Hitch. This is the Guardian.