Future Climate Outlook and Adaptation

This is the Guardian If you're looking for something predictable and low friction over the long term, public markets may be a suitable option The moment you want different investment characteristics, it may be time to consider the private markets. See how your wealth can work smarter at creativeplanning d. com slash access Every year we're experiencing record breaking heat pretty much. Our country just isn't prepared for this level of heat. There's also a phenomenon happening called El Ninho. It turbocharges heat waves. It's predicted to be a super El Ninho. If the El Ninho hits, we're likely to have very hot summer next year. The UK has recorded the hottest day on record in May as an early heat wave engulfs Europe and serves as a reminder of how the climate crisis is affecting lives From the Guardians Tay in Focus, this is the latest, with meet Lucy Hart. We're joining me is Helena Horton, Guardian reporter, prereviously an environment reporter, so well qualified to help us understand this heat wave. Th precedented temperatures recorded for May. I don't know about you, Helena, but I was tossing and turning all night. We were close to a tropical night in London where temperatures don't dip below twenty degrees, but that was narrowly averted. But nonetheless, there have been record temperatures recorded in London but also around the country. G me a sense of how hot it's been Well, it was record overnight. so it's very, very rare that we get anything up to twenty degrees just nearly twenty degrees in London last night. Actually, we've never had that in May before. So if you did find it hard to sleep, these attaches would normally have in August and obviously in May we have quite long evenings so it takes longer for the house to cool down, it's just very uncomfortable. And yes, but over the weekends, we've had Temperatures is hitting over thirty degrees across the country, across England and it's officially a heat wave in parts of the south east of England and the south in general. So that's when you have more than three days over twenty seven or twenty eight degrees depending on where you are. And what's the picture across Europe is Europe experiencing the same type of Extreme hastes as we are Yes, Northern Europe appe. So France is also baking at the moment. We're stuck in a pressure system which is sucking in hot air from Africa. So we have this kind of heat dame over us at the moment. It's going to take a while to dissipate up until the end of next week. Global heating and climate change must be a major factor in all of this. but is there specific phenomenon as well that's occurring that presumably is caused or worsened by climate change not at the moment. So there is an Enio coming up at the end of the year. It's a weather phenomenon that's caused by the Pacific Ocean heating and then that changes the jet stream in the way that impacts weather events. So it turbo charges heat waves and sometimes other things like rainfall or drought.. We've only had temperatures over thirty degrees in May, eight times since the early nineteen hundreds Every year we're experiencing called breaking heat pretty much It's accelerating. I'm sure you probably remember when we were younger, it would be extremely rare to have thirty degree days even in August and now we're having them earlier and earlier. And now for the first time we're about to hit thirty five in May today, according to the M Office. and that's a staggering two point two degrees Celsius above the record and normally records are only beaten by a fraction of a degree. So to beat it by two degrees, which looks like it's going to happen today. It's already getting really hot absolutely unprecedented and forecasters are very surprised that it's happening Yeah. and all sorts of weather warnings have been issued for various parts of the country for Europe as well. And this type of heat can be extremely dangerous for The old, the vulnerable for young people. How great is that risk to life this week? It's pretty high. I mean, I've seen some Americans online commenting saying, oh, it's only thirty degrees Celsius. we have that every day. The difference is our homes aren't built for these temperatures. Yeah. They're built of brick a lot of the time. They're built to retain heat because we're used to being a relatively cold, mild country and we don't have air conditioning. So that means in old people's homes, in schools, in overcrowded flats in London of across the country where you have people on lower incomes, they're the ones who are most at risk of heat stress and they're often people who are already vulnerable and already have health conditions So it's very concerning and our country just isn't prepared for this level of heat. everyvery people buy infrastructure, all of our homes, they're not prepared for it because why would you prepaare for something that never happened really before or only happened occasionally? But now it's happening all the time? And for wildlife, of course too, we're seeing ponds drying up. If people have a garden or a front garden and they could put a dish of water out a shallow dish of water out for local wildlife, that probably would be very helpful I mean you're right about the infrastructure just being not built to handle this type of weather. I mean we're going to have to look to southern Europe and other countries to sort of learn from them because it feels like the infrastructure rail networks just collapse as we' reach this type of heat. Yes. A rail tracks and the stress test up to twenty seven degrees Celsius because that's right. And that was reasonable because that it was pretty much the average hot summer temperature that we got and That means that they're not reinforced in the same way that rail tracks are in other countries that are hotter because if you reinforce them too much, you end up having issues when it gets cold below freezing And so basically we're in a happy medium at the moment because we have them so they don't buckle under the heat Well the heat that we used to get and they also don't shatter in winter. but now we might have to look at how we can make them more resilient. The tarmac on the roads also melts because other countries they mix in polymesoplastics into their tarmac to reinforce it to make sure it doesn't melt in the same way it does here We haven't done that because we haven't had to. So why would we spend money doing it when It didn't happen before. It was reasonable at the time, but now it's looking less reasonable. Yeah. And so you spoke about how ill equipped our homes are, but know in the UK, we don't have air conditioning units as is kind of standard in the US. And that is going to be a huge problem. I'm sure many people have been googling air conditioning units over the weekend as we kind of try to endure these astronomic conditions, but they themselves are really damaging to the environment as well,? And of course, it creates a wealth disparity about those who can afford to invest in such technology and those who can't Yes. I wouldn't say that air conditioning itself is bad for the environment always. So the government is trying to get us to invest in heat pumps for our homes. You can actually buy heat pumps that both heat and cool your house. They have the same technology in them as a fridge.. And at the moment, the grants only really apply to the ones that heat your home. I think that they should be applying to the ones that cool your home too And that the government should be funding retrofitting of these in old people's homes and potentially also schools. But you're right. I mean, it does put pressure on the grid. We haven't switched over to renewable energy for all of our electricity yet. We actually see in America that areas where they have heat waves, the grid often have blackouts or brownouts, they call it, because there's too much demand on the grid due to the amount of people turning on their aircon. Act they've managed to sort that out in some states with solar power because obviously when it's hot and sunny, you have more solar power. So Yeahes. so I guess we need more renewables, and it'd be great if we could have those heat pumps installed that both heat and cool our homes And you mentioned the El Nino that is coming at the end of the year. I'm troubled here it's not already here. So does that mean more heatwaves at this intensity to come over the course of the summer and into next year? Well, the met offffice do think we are likely to have a hot summer because we normally reach our peak temperatures at the end of July, start of August, it probably will be potentially hotter than this at least as hot as this at that time of year. It's proredjected to be a super El Nino at the end of the year starting in summer and going on right into next year. So actually the full effect, if it does come to pass, it's about sixty percent the last time I checked If it does come to pass will be an actually summer of twenty twenty seven so next summer. If the El Nino hits, we're likely to have very hot summer next year, but this year it will start to have effect. Also just the very fact of having this kind of extreme heat over Europe makes it more likely to keep compounding because it heats the seas and the oceans. And there are our biggest store that they store and release heat. So when when they get too hot, they then start to have a feedback loop where they release more heat, make it hotter outside, then the ocean gets hotter and then you have this feedback loop. So yes, it is likely we're going to have a hot summer and El Ninya will have a part to play particularically into next year got to adapt to this weather that is here to stay. Thank you so much, Hen your time. Thank you That's it for today. My hu, thanks again to Helena Horton, Guardian reporter. You can keep up with her reporting over at theguardian. comot And don't miss today's episode of our sister podcast Politics Weekly. Pippa Kira and Kiirin Stacy will be answering listener questions as Parliament takes recess Thanks for listening to this episode of the latest. Today in focus be back in your feeds as usual tomorrow morning the latest we'll be back tomorrow This episode was presented by me, Lucy Hoff. It was produced by Nardis Millionich. The sior producer was Ryan Ram Goben and the lead producer was Zoe Hitt H Kiright. I'm Caris Sherman. and we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have where you know, it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning. Pick up your phone And you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? Like There's war, there's authoritarianism, ourur planet is burning. I could go on and on and on and on and on. but like we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like how do you manage? 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