Europe's future without American security

This is the Guardian. Today. As Trump withdraw troops from Germany, is Europe ready for a future without America? Lakswill is a very unique place. I mean it's just a small town in Germany at first glance. You've got the sort of Vhineland architecture and the sloping red roofs and these sort of 19th century buildings around. Deborah Cole covers Germany for the Guardian. And she recently visit Landschul in the southwest of the country, which, while very German, is also very American. You have the American fast food joints and you've got a nail salon with an American flag in front of it. They had a fun fair going when we were there, decorated with Uncle Sam. It's essentially just, you know, kind of one big welcome mat for Americans to feel part of this community. And they have been for, you know, now 81 years. Ever since the US Army marched into the nearby city of Kaiserslaughton in the spring of 1945, Americans have been woven into the fabric of life here. Of the 68,000 US military personnel stationed in Europe, Around nine thousand live in Lanstul, along with their families. So when Donald Trump announced he would be withdrawing American troops from Germany apparently to punish the German Chancellor for suggesting his war in Iran was a mistake. Dismay spread across Landstoy. I spoke to a high school teacher in town who compared it to like a bombshell. Schockiert, muss ich ganz ehrlich sagen. Also ich bin jetzt schon ganz lange in der Gegend und wir lieben unsere Amerikaner. I'll translate that for you. Around here we love our Americans, she says. Across Europe, leaders are starting to wonder what will happen if this is just the start of the American withdrawal from the continent, potentially from NATO too. They're increasing defence spending, reintroducing conscription, and stockpiling weapons. But is it enough? From The Guardian, I'm Helen Pitt, today in focus. Can Europe defend itself alone? Debra Cole, welcome to the show. Thank you for having me. It's lovely to see you. So you're not just our Germany correspondent, but you're also an American, aren't you? So you're so perfectly placed for this episode. So thanks for being here. My pleasure. So you had a very interesting day in this town of Lunstor last week, after Trump threatened to withdraw five thousand troops from Germany. We just start with the basics. Why are there still any American soldiers stationed in Germany? You have to kind of scroll back um eighty-one years, you know, to the end of the Second World War. So at that time, you know, Germany was completely um physically and and morally destroyed. And uh the American troops led by General Patton marched into this region in March 1945. and have never left. And it's been a place to project US power throughout a very broad region, as well as protecting European allies who are part of NATO. And then so over the last eighty one years, when was the sort of peak for the number of troops that were stationed in Germany? peak was um it was during the Cold War. At the end of World War II, there were 1.6 million US troops, but that was a short-lived experience. And then after that, they drew down into the hundreds of thousands in the 1950s, 60s, 70s, up and through the, you know, through the 80s. um you still had more than two hundred fifty thousand US troops in Germany. What is actually in Lunchdul when it comes to US military facilities? Well, Lunstuhl is known mainly for the medical center there, and that is the biggest US hospital outside the United States. But it is part of a whole community that is part of the uh Kaiserslautan military community. And um that includes the Rammstein um airbase, which is also enormously important. for US military operations in Europe and military action in the Middle East, in Afghanistan, and in Africa. So um the whole community taken together has about 5000 US troops, um, support staff, and then families who are based there. So these are people who are not just, you know, kind of passing through. They come and they and they stay for a few years with their families. And isn't Rammstein also important for NATO? I read that it was the sort of it acted as the command centre for military airspace surveillance for all European partners. That's right. And um it's also been in use um as part of the US Israeli led a war in Iran and whereas some European partners have uh refused to allow the US to use their airspace as part of that campaign, German airspace and um Rammstein have been very important as part of of this latest war as well. Isn't that interesting considering the dive that the US German relations have taken in the past week, as we will get on to. And so you went to Lunstuhl just last week, and I know that you spoke to quite a few residents and troops who are in the town, and they they seem quite sad at the prospect of the troops being sent back. home. Why do American GIs, if you want to call them that, have such a special place in so many Germans' hearts? I mean, you know, from the US perspective, there is um a lot of history there. But also the Germans, you know, they the some of the people I talked to talked about sort of our Americans. And almost everyone I spoke to among the Germans had either worked for the Americans or been married to an American or had children. I mean they business ties that go back decades. I mean these are communities that are completely interwoven. It is a community that is very much German American. And so for me as an American going to visit, it's sort of like this it's like a you know kind of Truman show. It's a world within a world where I feel like for half a second if I kind of squint that I'm somewhere in a you know midwestern town. And in terms of what you can actually see into the American influence, what is there in Lunchdall that would give you a hint if you didn't know that there was this enormous American airbase so nearby? So when we were there uh last Thursday, we got lucky that the carnival, the the spring carnival was happening. And you know, just as we pulled into town, we saw um these rides for kids with Uncle Sam. You see the stars and stripes everywhere, every shop sort of, you know, is everything's advertised in English and in German. For those of you remember, uh Wayne's World, we went to show wings, um chicken. Party time excellent. Yeah. Yeah, we uh I I knew I had found the right place uh uh to find Americans and Germans. And um and so you know it's it's a community that has very much opened its arms to to its Americans and tried to make them as feel as home as possible. And I guess there's a lot of livelihoods in the area that are dependent on the Americans' presence. Did you meet anybody whose businesses would be in dire straits if they were to be sent back home? So one of the people I spoke to who is particularly interesting, his name is Carl, and he was born in Poland, but he's lived in Germany since 12. And so he as the manager of this Schwing's location I visited. Um said that it would be absolutely devastating. Viele Leute waren ja arbeitslos, ne? Definitiv. And he described it. He said that a lot of people are drawn to this, you know, fairly small townstuhl because they want the American feeling. And um there are and have been a lot of um business opportunities, um a lot of jobs that are are stabilized that are supported by the American military presence. In fact, they are completely dependent on it. And sort of beyond financial dependence on the Americans and this desire to have an American feeling, do the Germans that you met in Lunch Jewel feel kind of emotionally, sentimentally attached to the American presence because the Americans had such a big influence on post war Germany, didn't they? From the Airbridge, which people might remember from nineteen forty eight in Berlin when the Soviets had Essentially cut off. Berlin from the rest of the country and the Americans every day, didn't they? Day and night flew in. Food and coal. Everything that the West Berliners needed. Moving forward from the difficult flying conditions of winter to the sunny skies of summer, the Berlin Airlift underlines its resounding success with an amazing feat. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, the Americans kept the Germans from being starved into submission, you know, by the Soviet Union. And so there's an enormous amount of uh of gratitude linked to that. Then of course the Marshall Plan, which pumped billions over the years into rebuilding Germany, not only economically, but also welcoming it back into the community of nations, West Germany. after the the Nazi period that was anything but a given. But I think then you know we get to the heart of the of the issue here that the Germans saw it as the right thing to do, not only in terms of rebuilding Europe, but also in their own interest in the context of the Cold War. And that interest that the United States has by having this military presence here is still very much the case. That hasn't changed. Yeah. And beyond Landstuhl and Rammstein, how big is the US military presence in Germany? So there are about thirty six thousand soldiers here and that is a little bit more than half of the the US Troops in all of Europe. But then along with that, you have, you know, civilian support staff and as I mentioned, the families. So the actual American presence is is through that, you know, exponentially bigger. um from a defence or military point of view. How important are these bases for the Americans and for the Germans and the Europeans? The Americans just in Germany alone have twenty to forty bases, depending on sort of how you define a military base. But um it is a very large presence. We talked earlier about uh Rammstein. And the essential important importance that that has as part of NATO, as as you were saying earlier, Helen, that it's not only the Americans who use Rommstein, but um many, many NATO members. And it is not only, I think Trump often in the way he speaks about it, puts it in terms that the American military presence in Germany is only to defend Germans and Europeans. And that is far from the case. I mean as we're seeing right now in the Iran War. Rammstein and the other bases are um extremely important as part of this military. operation and just in general. It is, you know, sort of a forward launching pad essentially for military operations in Africa, you know, in in the Middle East. We mentioned Afghanistan. I mean, I've I've been based in Germany for a long time and, you know, it used to be down in Stuttgart, which is where the European command is based. It's also where the US Africa Command is based and go to briefings with the Supreme Allied Commander there. Constantly because everything was being planned after, for example, after 911 in Afghanistan and then later in Iraq, you know, from patch barracks in in in Shukat, Germany. So there's a whole sort of infrastructure that has been built up over decades. And so the idea that you could sort of just toss this out the window and still have the same projection of American power throughout this enormous region is completely illusory. And in terms of the Germans, is there any truth? in it when Trump says that the Germans have kind of outsourced their own security to the Americans. Because For such for a long time, the German army, the Bundeswehr, has been by many other um armies I remember hearing a colonel from the British Army dismiss it as an aggressive camping organization, this idea that they couldn't really you know, if somebody did attack Germany, that they would be pretty helpless. Well, again, we have to take a historical perspective on all of this. I mean, the um horror unleashed by Nazi Germany and its military is a memory that is very much still alive in Europe. And so the whole idea was to allow Germany to return to a certain economic strength, but also at the same time restrain any sort of military ambitions it could ever have again. And it also bred a pacifist streak in the population, you know, the sort of never again among Germans was taken very seriously for a long time. And they saw it as part of their identity, this absolute rejection. of the Nazi past. So then as time went on, more and more American presidents, however, started seeing all of this term an economic strength that wasn't being backed up with investment um in its own military. Good time. It's wonderful to see all of you, and I want to begin by thanking Chancellor Merkle for being here. And even Barack Obama would tell Angela Merkel, look, you know, and they had a very good relationship, you know, would say, look, he didn't sort of use the word, you know, freeloading and and things that Trump has has reached for. But he did Obama tried to impress on the Europeans, particularly the Germans, that they needed to step up. that's why every NATO member should be contributing its full share. two percent of GDP towards our common security. Something that Doesn't always happen. And I'll be honest, sometimes Europe has been complacent about And that message was quietly ignored for a a very long time. Very historic milestone this week the NATO allies committed to dramatically increase their defense spending to that five percent of GDP, something that no one really thought possible. And they said you did it, sir, you did it. Well I don't know if I did it, but I think I did. This will be known as the And then Trump became a kind of a wake up call for the Europeans. And when German chancellor Friedrich Matz uh was elected on election night in his first speech after it became clear that he was going to be the next leader of Germany. He used the word. independent from the United States, which was really shocking for a lot of people to hear. Like that was sort of the headline that this was a recognition that this historic relationship that was built on trust and a a sense of German reliance on the Americans, but also an understanding that, you know, the Americans saw their future also as rooted. In the stability um and success of Europe that that was breaking apart. quickly than anyone could imagine and that the the Germans were going to have to react to this new reality. Yeah, and that brings us nicely to the latest spat and potentially the most serious one. And it all began last week, didn't it? When Friedrich Merz was talking to some school children in Marsburg. I'm not sure where Marsburg is. What what happened? So um Morrisburg is in uh Fliedig Matz's constituency and Fliedig Matz he has a way sometimes of Forgetting that he's the German chancellor and that if he is speaking to a classroom full of of pupils and his, you know Backyard. Um that that is going to reach the entire world instantly. So um he chose This moment, um to announce At least a a strong shift in tone. uh in terms of uh his approach to Donald Trump and to this uh US Israeli military action in Iran. And uh his choice of words, he he chose some provocative words. Da wird eine ganze Nation gedemütigt. Wait. Die iranische Staatsführung. That the Americans were being outmaneuvered, um, and uh that they were being humiliated by And um Donald Trump uh likes to be flattered and he certainly doesn't like to be told that he's being humiliated. As you said, it seemed to be a bit of an about turn for Friedish Merz because When he made his first visit to the White House, didn't he give Trump this like gold framed birth certificate of Trump's grandfather, Friedrich Trump, who emigrated from the Germany in eighteen eighty five? First of all, I want to thank you for that. That's my pleasure. Thank you very much. Thank you again. Fantastic. Uh we are having so much in common. Our history we owe the Americans a lot. We will never forget about that. And uh so with your German provenance I think this is a very good basis for close cooperation between America and Germany. naturally what uh w what Merz said um in front of those school children reached Trump's ear and he was not happy about it, was he? How did he respond? Uh Trump was very quick to respond to these comments. Uh he's doing a terrible job. He's got immigration problems, he's got energy problems, and he criticized me for doing the whole thing with Iran. But I said, Would you like to have a nuclear weapon in the hands of Iran? He said, No, I don't. I said, Well then I guess I'm right. He didn't have any answer to that. So Trump is cross and then very quickly he acts, doesn't he? The United States says it will withdraw five thousand of its troops from Germany as a rift widens between the two countries. Why is the US removing troops from Germany Germany? Uh we're gonna cut way down and we're cutting a lot further than five thousand. Thank you very much. And not only is Trump withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany, and potentially more in future, it looks very much like the US is also not going to be stationing some really crucial long range tomahawk cruise missiles there either. And even missiles that the Europeans were counting on, really, to deter Russia. Europeans are already building their own, but they are somewhere off being finished, so that's gonna leave them pretty exposed. But when it comes to the troop withdrawal, do you think that it was purely to spite Friedrich Merz? Or does it fit, do you think, a pattern of Trump Wanting to reduce troop numbers in Europe to reduce the European reliance on America. It fits not only a broader pattern of Trump threatening to reduce the US true presence in Europe. I think in general it reflects an attitude towards Europe that this alliance that has existed since the second world war. um is no longer in US interest according to him. And He has very much painted the defense of Ukraine as being a European problem. That was another thing he said when he lashed out. Under Joe Biden it was seen that defense of Ukraine was absolutely in in American interest and that Russia was the adversary and you know Trump has obviously taken a very different approach when it comes to to Russia as well. Hm, and there's an irony there, isn't there, Trump telling the Europeans when it comes to Ukraine, you're on your own, because he's the guy that returns to the White House for the second time and then invites Putin. to Alaska if a talk completely cuts out the Europeans, not to the Europeans, but the Ukrainians themselves. Yeah. Yeah, and that followed the dressing down he gave Zelensky an office, which, you know, you talk to German officials and the horror they experienced watching that. And I think it it was also because it it drove home the sense that the Europeans really are on their own. I mean NATO alliance still exists, although Donald Trump said at the beginning of April that he could very much, you know, imagine the United States leaving NATO. And the the consequences of that obviously would be catastrophic for the Europeans, but this idea, the whole sort of framing. Thanks. The uh US military presence in Europe is is really only a favor to the Europeans. Is one that really doesn't, you know, bear out in reality when you see how important, you know, these bases are for the projection of American military power in in several regions around the world. Coming up. How ready is Europe for an Americanless future? Kai Right. I'm Carly Sherman. And we are here to tell you about our new show, which is rooted in this feeling that at least I have, I know you have, where you know it's kind of like when you wake up in the morning. Pick up your phone, eh? And you're just hit in the face with a fire hose of news, right? Like There's war, there's authoritarianism, our planet is learning. I could go on and on and on. On and on and on, but like we're trying to figure out how to manage it, right? Like how do you manage it? I manage it by leaning in and trying to learn more and trying to figure out, okay, how can I be smarter about this particular topic and who can I talk to that's going to make me feel better about it. And who can tell me who's responsible for the mets that I'm reading about? So that's our mission. That's the show. Welcome to Stateside with Kai and Carter. We're a new show from The Garden. We're talking to big thinkers and the best journalists, just trying to understand the world through smart conversation and honest reporting. We don't have billionaires telling us what to say. Stateside with Kai and Carter will come out three times a week, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday starting May 13th. Follow on Apple Podcasts or catch us wherever you watch or listen. So Deborah, as you say, Trump has threatened to withdraw from NATO altogether. He's also suggested that he's gonna try and get Spain kicked out of NATO. He's got a particular beef with Pedro Sanchez, the socialist prime minister of Spain. He's threatened to withdraw troops from Italy. And just the question of troop withdrawal from um Germany and beyond, because there are also troops in Italy, Spain, the UK, Belgium and other countries. W wh what is Europe worrying about so much? Wha what what has Trump said and done that is causing such consternation at this point? Well you don't even have to just listen to the Europeans. I mean, you know, there were Republicans after Trump made his comments at the end of last week. saying surely this is going to embolden the Russians. I mean if you're Vladimir Putin and see that the Americans are going wobbly in terms of, you know, their military presence in Europe. then it's you know, it's an embossed invitation. to at least pursue more provocations when we've seen these hybrid attacks, you know, for the last several years. And you know, the the one of the biggest fears is that uh, you know, the the Russians could go beyond Ukraine, you know, potentially into the Baltics, for example. Yeah, old Poland, yeah. Or Poland, yeah. And the Europeans have tried over the last several years since the first uh the first term of Trump to build up their military strength. They're certainly not in a position yet to be able to defend themselves against a a a nuclear power like Russia, um with an enormous army. And uh and so as time goes on, it's a race against the clock and um time is not on the European side. Indeed, it's not. And that is why the Europeans held this slightly odd summit on Tuesday in Armenia, which is a country, let's be honest, they've never really cared about before. But it is on the border with Russia and Iran. And the summit was Basically all about how to stop Russia's advances beyond Ukraine. We all live in a volatile geopolitical context. In this challenging environment The first ever EU Armenia summit could not be more timely. And it was really interesting to see that Mark Carney was there, alongside the Europeans. Another sign I thought that the Canadians want to be moving closer to Europe now that they too can't depend on the Americans. And I guess ringing in all of their ears will be the remarks made by Mark Rutter, the former Dutch Prime Minister who's now the head of NATO, who said in January If anyone thinks here again. That the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the US Keep on dreaming. You can't. We can't. We need each other. Is that scepticism shared by other European leaders? Or do they think, do you know what, guys, if we really put our bac into this, if we really increase defence spending, we can do it and we can do it soon. I don't think Anyone thinks that it would be soon enough. Let's put it that way. I mean, it's really even hard to imagine. That the collective effort would be focused enough and enough resources poured into it. There just isn't you know enough time to um develop that kind of strength while Trump is still in office. And so I think in the back of of many Europeans minds is okay, yeah, we we got the message, we're trying, we're focused. But of course there's a hope that after Donald Trump leaves office. that um it won't be a MAGA republican who takes his place. At the same time, I think that the penny really has dropped under two compared to Trump one that this Post war period. I think that there is an understanding that that is crumbled. And the potential, even if whoever replaces Donald Trump is more of a transatlanticist again, there's no guarantee that whoever follows that person won't be uh, you know, another Trump. Uh trump ice. Let's put it that way. Yeah. And beyond Germany, how united are EU leaders on the way forward? None of them, with the exception of Poland, are anywhere close to reaching the commitment that they've made to spend five percent of GDP on defence by twenty thirty-five. You've got the Germ reintroducing conscriptions, and then you've got nations like Spain suggesting that the only way forward is a European army, which is a very controversial thing, isn't it? Do you think that that's something that's realistically on the table in in the near or medium future? Well, it's a revival of an old debate whether it's better to have Increase European military strength within NATO? Or the friendship talked about building sort of a you know a parallel structure, having having increased military strength outside of NATO. I think you do have a lot of tension um within the European Union as to, you know, which approach is the best. I think Germans, most establishment Germans from across the the mainstream uh political parties are much more comfortable with the build up within NATO. That also has historical reasons. But it's interesting that you mentioned the Spanish. So when Filipe Maths was in Washington in March and uh this was the right after the beginning of the Iran War. Donald Trump started attacking Keir Stomer, you know, he's no Winston church. And he also really went after uh Pedro Sanchez um and the Spanish government at the time they had refused to allow any of the of their airspace or bases to be used in the in the Iran campaign. And that was a provocation to Donald Trump. And so he went after him and he said that they were going to sort of, you know, break off all trade and things. And And guessing that EU trades as a block. Yes, exactly. Yeah. And so fleet of maths and a lot of people in Germany and certainly across Europe were a bit horrified to see that Mats did not immediately stand up for the Spanish, who are partners in the European Union, partners in NATO. They, you know, have a good bilateral or had a good bilateral relationship. And uh there were days and days that went by when Mats was trying to get, you know, Sanchez on the phone and uh supposedly he uh changed his number. I mean it was a a real diplomatic you know, it's bad um that it sparked. And I think that that was not only sort of a bit tragic, but it was also symptomatic. For if the United States In whatever sense. pulls out as as a true and committed partner to Europe. then it is going to revive tensions between European nations, rivalries. that had been tamped down for years and years, for decades, since the Second World War, essentially because of the building of these institutions that were backed up with American power. You take them out of the mix in whatever way. Um, and and I think you're gonna start seeing these c centrifugal forces in in Europe um that could be quite dangerous. Scary times. Deborah, thank you so much. That was fascinating. Thanks so much for having me. That was Deborah Cole, Germany correspondent for The Guardian. You can read her great dispatch from Lunchstuhl at thegardian.com. Before we go, I just wanted to tell you about a new video podcast that our New York office is launching. It's called Stateside with Kai and Carter, and it's hosted by our colleagues Kai Wright and Carter Sherman. Each week they're gonna be trying to make sense of some of the biggest stories happening right now. The show will feature conversations with some of the smartest thinkers and reporters, not just from The Guardian, but from across the world. It's launching on the 13th of May, with episodes every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. You can find it in full video on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts. And that is all for today. This episode was produced by Tom Glasser and Ned Carter Miles and presented by me, Helen Pitt. Sound design was by Brian McNamara, and the executive producer was Hummer Kalili. We'll be back in your feeds this afternoon with the latest.