Sticking points in the Iran talks

This is the Guardian I think we are probably within twenty four hours of an agreement. Trump might just at the last minute bulk Be there's so much political backlash to what he's agreed to do. There were words, there will be an unconditional surrender by Iran. This is not an unconditional surrender and as ever predicting the next steps of Donald Trump mugs game. Donald Trump is facing a backlash at home over his proposed Iran peace deal, but as the US carries out fresh airstrikes, could an agreement still be within reach? From the Guardians today in foocus, this is the latest, with meet Lucy Hart Well're joing me is Patrick Wentor, our diplomatic editor. Patrick. Over the weekend, we were hearing positive noises from the White House about the shape of a deal forming, that the steps were being taken that were close, that we were within reach. But now there are fresh strikes by the US on Southern Iran. What's going on and what can we read into these mixed messages. Well what the American Central commommand has said is these were defensive strikes, which I guess they're trying to mllify the Iranians about what they've done, but they've claimed particularly down in The south near the strait Banda Abbas, they have struck what they said was an attempt to set up a kind of missile launchers and also there was some evidence that the Iranians were trying to lay further mines in the Strait of Hormuz And at the moment The Iranian reaction is by their standards relatively muted. And I think they're going to try and still focus on getting this deal rather than going into a kind of mode of saying the ceasefire is over and we're back to fighting. Yeah, because there has been an insistence from the United States that talks are still ongoing. So even with this sort of what it sounds like unilateral action, the talks are still taking place Yeah, it's bit of a caravanar, but at the moment, I think the talks' going on in Dohar because one of the bigg issues has been around the issue of Iran's frozen assets and whether they can be unfrozen by the Americans and whether Qatar would be where I think some of the big money is could be released. And from the Iranian point of view, it's really important that that money is released right at the start of the process, not sort of that it's conditional on something else. They want it right up front And meanwhile, Trump domestically is facing a lot of criticism, even from sort of former allies, real Republican hawks. they are sort of criticising Trump for having failed to achieve his war aims that we're entering into a process where the deal that might emerge from this would be substantially weaker than prior to the conflict. Interesting that we're hearing that quite open criticism from people within Trump's own party. Yeah I think it was really kind of a messy landing for the proposals over Saturday and Sunday Lindsey Graham, who is probably one of his those des allies extremely critical ruz the senator from Texas also saying that this was a disaster And you know keep people on the Armed Services commommittee as well very critical. So it was a really bumpy reception. And I think the key point they're making is they feel that the whole nuclear file has been deferred to later and that the sole focus is trying to get the Straight or F moves reopened, which had obviously been previously opened before the War started. Everyones saying, well, what was the point of all that? Yeah, and we're hearing this sort of bombastic language from Trump claiming this as a victory. But if you listen back to his speech delivered on the twenty eighth of feebruary, the first day of this conflict when Ayatollah Alihamane, Iran's former supreme leader, was killed in US Israeli airirstrikes, the aim was about eliminating the imminent threat from Iran, but also Trump was calling for regime change We are very far from that at this point. If anything, it feels like Iran has been emboldened, given that it's realized it's got this leverage of the Strait of Hamz and also that it can withstand US Israeli military action Yeah, I think they do feel emboldened. I mean if anything, the regime has changed, but it's changed into a much more security orientated, less clerical, less centrist regime than before. And I think they feel that they've managed to ride out a storm the big deterrent that's always been hanging over them which is an attack by America has happened and they've survived it. So it's a kind of transformatory moment for Iran in terms of the leadership, but Trump I think is going to have a real job trying to sell what he's managed to negotiate so far because there' going to be awful connotations of the Barack Obama deal whereby loads of money was given to the Iranians and Trump was incredibly critical of that. And I don't think he's made any progress on the nuclear issues, which wasas the Kaza speeli. if you remember we were told there was a very imminent threat of a nuclear strike by Iran. and even though no intelligence assessments coming out of America was endorsing that. And there were words, to the effect that this will be, in fact, not to the effect, to exact words, was that there will be an unconditional surrender by Iran This is not an unconditional surrender No. And indeed, there's been criticism from people within Trump's own party that this would be substantially worse than that Obama deal agreed in twenty fifteen and that we were better off where we were around the Geneva talks prior to this conflict. Patrick, what are some of the other sticking points in the talks? because we've also had a fresh wave of strikes from Israel in southern Lebanon saying they want to crush Hezbollah Iran is saying that Hezbollah must be included in any ceasefire deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That feels like another real complicated issue to work through Yeah, I think if Broadly, I think there's four sort of sticking points that were being negotiated over the last few days one was the one about the frozen assets which were already discussed and then you were wr the issue of whether there was going to be a full ceasefire in Lebanon U The Iranian phrase it has to be a ceasefire on all fronts and Israel is really kicking up very hard issue and then there's a question of how the straits of Hormuz are going to be managed in the future The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman on Monday was saying we're not seeking to impose tolls We are thinking of that there could be fees for navigational services. And the issue there is are those navigational services something that you can apply for or whether they willll be compulsory? thati. e, it will be a toll. and's a distinction without a difference words. so that is also to be very difficult. And then lastly, the Americans are trying to get into the agreements, something on the nuclear issue to the effect that There will be the dispatch of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium until yesterday was saying it had to be exported to America But he then switched and said he could tolerate the uranium being destroyed inside Iran. And I think what Iran is after is that it's what's called down blended, which is a technical term for just basically diluted soc. The enrichment goes down to three point six seven percent, which is regarded as kind of what you would need for a kind of civil nuclear program So those are the sticking points, but As of the latest latest reports, it was the money issue that was holding things up and it's as much as twenty four billion dollars. And now obviously that sounds a lot and you can see that the IRGC would be buying some new gleaming weapons with that. you got to also bear in mind Iran's probably foregone as much as two hundred fifty billion through this war. So it's you know it's a drop in the ocean and there are people inside Iran sending letters to the speaker demanding that they don't concede anything at this stage. They must be straightforward Reparitions and the straits of Hormz must remain under full Iranian control And meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which is sending shock waves through the global economy and will continue to do so. It feels patrally like we're just stuck in some kind of stalemate given the multifaceted complex talks that you're describing. Well I' completely understand that if you're watching it from outside, which a way I am as well. But the reality is that there is progress and I think there is a kind of movement towards an agreement and the agreement is very much one frameed by Iran that we're going to get the strait of Hormuz open the U.S blockade of Iranian ports lifted and then we will negotiate about the nuclear issues. And that is the kind of framework in which Everything is being worked on and bit by bit the hiccups are being dealt with. and I think we are Probably within twenty four hours of an agreement. Trump might just at the last minute bulk because there's so much political backlash to what he's agreed to do and has ever I mean, predicting sort of Donald Trump is a mug game. It sure is. Well, Patrick, thank you so much for your time. Pleasure That's it for today. My huge thanks again to Patrick Wintter, the Guardian's diplatic editor. 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