Analyzing the latest US jobs report

. Okay, who else needs a holiday twenty twenty six is fifty percent loaded. We're halfway there and we're very much living on a prayer Markets have been on a kind of wild and honestly kind of stupid ride Threats of war, actual war, rotations and rotations. jump in fun sized stocks. Worse, the Americans are getting into football and starting to talk about the offside rule This feels like the bit in Jurassic Park where the Velociraptors learn how to open doors Today Today on the show What does it all mean? Does it mean anything? What are we doing with our lives talking about markets This is Unhedged, the Markets and Finance podcast from the Financial Times and Pushkin. I'm Katy Martin, a markets colonomist at the FT in a slightly cooler and football mad London Joining me down the line from his bunker in Long Island. Hopefully without the technical issues he had earlier this week is Soccer cat Rob Armstrong. Rob. I was gonna say congratulations To the Britain Soccer Cats whichich I think is what your team is called. Katie, I should mention that we are near our Day of National independence, the fourth of July. and what we do to celebrate independence in this country is we mow lawns And so you may hear O here on Long Island, the sound of a lawnmower in the back because there is always a lawnmower going. Is this also the holiday where you all like throw fireworks at each other This the this is the one I used to have a pinky finger day, I think is what it's called. Yeah So look, some years you feel like you have a sort of spell in markets and you kind of know what to call it or know what the big theme is. I don't know, like I really feel like so far in twenty twenty six we've just been trying to nail jelly to a wall. Like it's just Like what is even the big theme, what is going on? Yeah L am I alone in feeling like just sort of spun around? No, you are not. And as we have mentioned, but perhaps not paid enough attention to on the show before I think the biggest narrative of this year might be this year to date might be fact that in the last month, the master narrative of the last Five years has kind of broken down. And that master narrative is watch the magnificent seven go up Right? And that, you know, the magnificent seeven could do no wrong It led the market up, when it stumbled, everything went down. and you might have told the story. It's AI, it's the magnificent seven. Every is great until June started And then it's like everything falls out of bed and you're like, where are we So So we've talked about the magnificent seven, but let's just kind of rewind for people who've missed this whole thing. There's like a clutch of seven massive stocks in the states. most of them very tech flavored. We always forget at least one, but we're talking Apple, alphab. Amazon.s Microsoft. Meta. Amazon, Ma. The one we'd all like to forget is Tesla, which is kind of like In a family of seven, it's like the embarrassing brother who went to prison and nobody wants to talk about it We think cre black sheep of the family. When I think about it, I like to swap out Tesla and swap in Broadcom, but officially Tesla in there. Yes But so the point is, this is what I was talking about right at the top. This is one of the big rotations. So if you look at one of the big sort of US stocks indices, it looks a bit like a plateau, but it's still broadly going up Beneath the surface, you've kind of got this kind of wrenching noise because the leadership has completely switched because that Those magnificent seven stocks have become like the Mag seven has become the Lag seven And And in fact, we pointed this out in the newsletter today The magnificent Seven group of stocks has underperformed UK government bonds so far this year. Yeah whichich is very sad. That's a sad story That's like a seven word tragedy right there you just composed L a tragedy in three words, worse than guilt. they were. But that's like so you've got that kind of Tonic shift beneath the surface of US stock markets, which therefore is of global stock markets because they're just so much bigger than the rest of us everywhere, right? So At the start of this year, it feels like a million years ago now, but you remember like gold and silver went absolutely parabolic? Banas For like completely banas and then they just kind of went. like all the air came out of those things and they've come straight back down. Okay Gold is still trading at about four thousand dollars an ounce, but still This is not the sort of you know crazy rally that we had in January And then similar but different, you have that massive move in the oil price that happened when the bombs started falling on Iran. That sort of went up to best part of one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel. And then again, huge like sucking noise were right back down to seventy dollars a barrel So there's lots of I don't know, there just seem to be like themes that don't stick and and narratives that don't stick and a lot of turmoil beneath the surface that's really not reflected in the broader market This brings up the topic of small cap stocks, which I'm always enthusiastic about and I'm always waiting for the great small cap resurgence. And this year we've had it The S and P six hundred, which is my preferred index of small ke stocks is beating. It's big brother the S and P five hundred And, you know, it's like Christmas is finally here for smallmall caps fans I don't know what to make of it. So so the Russell two thousand, that's like as you know, we're going to call them fun sized. They're pretty sizeable companies. Yeah some of them. They were British companies. they'd be. Yeah, they'd be But you know, there's there's ten there's ten billion dollar companies in there for sure, you know, and more And they're up. God if memory serves, I think we're talking about twenty percent this year whereas the S andP five hundred, which is the Mac Daddies are up more like seven, eight Yeah. So. I did something this morning that I've never done before, which was break down small cap performance by sector Every sector and I use the S andP six hundred because there's like in the Russell two thousand, there's a lot of junky unprofitable stocks. the S and P six hundred uses a profits filter so you know you have all real money making companies or whatever. Basically Every sector of the S and P six hundred is up this year Worst performer is utilities and that's up eight percent, the small utilities The winner and this the and most of them are in the kind of teens range Except for one, which is information technology. smallmall cap information technology is up sixty percent almost this year. and just to close that loop The five best performing stocks in the S and P six hundred, none of which I had heard of before I checked Max Linear Core. Core Ultra clean Viche and these are the better, I would say you are definitely making these ne. Yeah, okay. in these five made up names Their industries are semiconductors, semiconductors, semiconductors, semiconductors, and data center installations So like the same thing we see in the wider market. Now, None of those are a huge. It's not like the small cap indndex is dominated by semi names But like that semiconductor theme we've seen in the big cap market does exist in the small cap Well, let's say a little bit more about this whole semis thing, like chips maniaes in markets, right? So we've spoken about this before. The Philadelphia semiconductor index, the Philly index has doubled in the first half of this year Korean stock market is up ninetine nine zero percent so far this yet now Some of the steam has come out of these things in June, but whatever, as a first half performance, this is like incredible stuff and it's almost like You know, it doesn't matter who wins the war, you know, bet on whoever is making the bullets. One commenter on the newsletter this morning said Waking up every morning and seeing what the Cospie did the night before is like playing Russian roulette every morning You know, So the three costy is Korea st Some warnings, it's up fifteen percent. Some warnings, it's down fifteen percent. It's like this fun little bit of drama when you roll out of bed in the morning. What happened in Korea then before Yeah, it's incredible. but you know, the natural worry about this situation with chips is we know there's a massive shortage like Micron, which makes memory chips, which you need a lot of for AI data centers, they can't make them memory chips fast enough You know, this is toilet paper during COVID, right? Like where is it? How can we get it Whatever price is offered for it, we will pay You know, those situations end And so there is a guessing game feeling to this, Katie where it's like Well, at some point you go in cycles like this in cyclical industries you go from shortage to glut And is that like in six months? Is it in five years? We don't know because we don't know how long the AI data center boom will last Right So there is The problem with this is like so I don't know you're probably familiar, Rob. you know, like FT Alphaille, like the kind of market blog and the FT listeners, if you don't read it already, then do. it's free. Yes. But they've been running this thing called This is Nuts, Where's the crash where they like point at like stupid pockets of excess and massive jumps in price that are scattered around markets and say, look, this is clearly a sign of madness. when's the crash They have been running this tagline for the past twenty years So I'm inclined to feel the same way about this now. So you look at this madness in chip stocks and you think, this is nuts. when's the crash Probably never. Yeah. So I mean, there's a deep lesson here, Katie, which is that there iss always at least one insane thing happening in risk markets That makes you think our species has completely lost the threreat and there is no hope for us. And some there's some corner doing that at any given time And you can't You can't let that panic you too much because it's just a continuous feature of you know human psychology as displayed in the stock market. So we've spoken about this before and you spoke about it with Rashia in New York just the other week around this idea of, you know, if you look at all this nuttiness and you think, I just don't want to get involved in this. I want to buy nice boring stocks. Rob, you've been a big advocate for boring boring stocks past you you love a bit of boring And it's this idea that you buy you know, good quality stocks and good quality companies that appear to be underpriced for no good reason. Now I was just reading some stuff from an outfit called Trivariate Research before I came up here They said that if you had over the last quarter run run a strategy that was long value and short growth. So you were buying boring stocks and you were avoiding or mayaking shorting, you know Whizbang text stooks, you would have lost sixteen percent in the second. Y. I would just like to note for the record that quality and value are two different kinds of stock. Your point is well taken. fine. But I'm just saying oververlapping. they often overlap. That is true. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But yeah, this, you know, if you want to kind of be clever, clever and say, well, this is silly. I'm going to avoid all this tech mania, you're getting startarted out by this really forceful rise in fizzy stocks. There's just no way to avoid it and Hold on to your job. So I will say, Katie that in recent weeks and months, there has been signs of these kind of quality or value things doing a little better or defensive stocks doing a little better. So we've seen a good run by healthca You know, staples have done okay for a change. So there is a sense that pererhaps people who run discretionary portfolios are saying We've all been massively overweight US big cap tech forever. We've made a load of money Maybe it's time to try something else, which might help to explain performance of small caps this year. Now O thing that is really bad news for small caps is big rises in interest rates because small caps tend to have more pressing needs to borrow, they're more sensitive to borrowing costs. they have much more borrowing on their books as a proportion of the overall business And they're just linked very tightly to the U.S domestic economy, period. Yeah, all of that stuff. So they generally don't like big rises in interest rates. and again, we've spoken about this before, but that is like a big rise in interest rates would be very much the thing that could pop this whole bubble that we're seeing here Just before we recorded or started recording, we had jobs numbers out of the states. Now normally everything is wrong with jobs numbers in the states coming out on a Thursday. Everyone knows they come out on a Friday, but you guys have got a holiday on Friday. So the numbers came out on Thursday and sad trombone noise. they were not W How do you spell that, Katie? How How do you spell If we ever want to use that in a title? Listeners right in with the spelling of sad trumbone noise. Yeah, unhedged at ft. com Let us know. But Yes, sad trombone. So previous month, very, very good numbers. this month, what was it? fifty eight thousand jobs added which was a lot fewer than people have been expecting. It's not disastrous and the unemployment rate was like you know pretty standard. So it's not like there's a jobs crisis in the states or anything, but It looks like that trajectory of ever higher you know, jobs added numbers every month, That is stumbling a little bit. Yes, I haven't had time to really comb through these numbers this morning, like slightly longer narrative is We had this period of some months over know starting last year where there was like no jobs added whatsoever. and there was total stagnation in the US. job market. And the talk was like population' not growing Uh, you know, the the there's less immigrants, you know, so there's less job creation, et cetera, et cetera And we're just at like zero is the new normal And then in the last three months before this month, the three months ending in May, we got these quite solid, unexpectedly solid job numbers And it's like, is the US economy reaccelerating? Is the zero, is the new normal story now false? We're all thinking about this. So high hopes that we'd get one hundred thousand jobs or one hundred thousand plus jobs for June and we got fifty od thousand, right? Yeah? And all things equal, that means that this is actually a bit of a lifeline to our friend, Kevin Wood,, who now runs the Federal Reserve. And it means that maybe he doesn't need to raise rates after all. L he wants to cut interest rates. That's very much the narrative that he fed to Donald Trump while he was kind of auditioning for the job This might enable him to do that or at least not to kind of raise rates aggressively, which earlier this year it was looking like you might have to do when you had jobs that were going great and inflation that was picking up pretty handily Maybe that that that need is waning a bit. Yeah, I think that's true And you know we never we want more job creation. We want more people employed. We want them earning more money. This is all stuff that we want. But for this one very niche issue of what monetary policy is going to be A softish jobs number does help the Fed not have to tighten monetary conditions and slow the economy that way. And it's worth noting about this jobs report that A lot of the job creation This is always something you worry about in terms of the strength of the economy came from non cyclical sectors. So education, healthcare added seventy thousand jobs this quarter And those are not sectors that grow because the economy is booming U they grow because you're like Your society is old and people are going back to school or whatever So so that, I mean, it was not a working at the World Cup, like is there not like a surge in jobs for people working No The hospitality numbers were down a lot this month, which was totally unexpected. My guess is that that is why economists were surprised. is they expected kind of hotel and restaurant jobs to go bananas and they did not. And that could be a quirk You know, any given month you can have a weird reading. It's very hard as it turns out take, you know, two hundred plus million employed people and guess how many of them are employed at a single point in time is quite hard. Yes. But I just want I want to squeeze in one more point, which also helps Worsh. which is that the wage picture continues the rate of wage growth in both nominal and real. That means dollar and inflation adjusted terms. Wage growth continues to cool And real wage growth is like zero is And so however money jobs you're creating, you don't worry as much about inflation when wages aren't growing. And that is important if Kevin Warsh wants to keep bras where they are or even cut them So know, we're halfway there. We're halfway through the year.. W that whole picture in play, with this whole situation where maybe interest rates don't need to rise quickly What do you think that says about what the second half of the year has inall because I sort of feel like if You know, threatening to invade Greenland and dropping bombs on Iran and all of that can't you know, meaningfully knock markets off direction, you know can't even really disturb their direction for very long I'm struggling to see anything other than the path being higher in the price of risky assets. Well, as we said in the newsletter today, Katie There is an extremely uncomfortable bit of role reversal going on here because You are the house pessimist and I am the house optimist. And you feel a bit optimistic about the second half of the year I I wouldn't say I'm pessimistic But I'm not seeing the party starting up again necessarily. I would say, pensive is the word I would use for the following reason I don't like markets. donon't have a strong trend I reread recently for another thing I was working on this great book H. from a long time ago called Reminiscences of a Stock market Operator, which is this Romanic cleft book about a famous trader from the early part of the century And he discusses how he makes money during stocks. and he says, no matter what else is going on I have to buy a market that's going up I like momentum. I'm not trying to get bargains and buy up when the market is falling. I buy into a rising market. And I really think that's true. and I don't like the fact that as you described very well earlier in the show, Everything is kind of wishy washy and unsure and swapping around or whatever. I like it when markets have momentum and I'm just not seeing any of it out Well, momentum is absolutely what we need. So let's just roll straight into a quick break and then come back in a minute for long short. Aly, it is time for long, short, that part of the show where we go long a thing we love or short a thing we hate. Rob, what you saying I am tragically short the anchovy. I'm an anchovy junkie And our former colleague, Javier Blaso at Blomberg, wrote a terrifying article collapse in the global anchovy supply And this is bad for fish farming apparently, but for me, it's bad for pizza. So I'm worried about the NchOV and I'm short and it's al t.erri I'm gonna I'm I think you know what I'm going to say. I'm gonna have to be long dogs. Oh We very sad times in the Martin household we had to say goodbye to our beloved dog this week. It was awful. This is why I was not around on Tuesday Anyone who has dogs knows it is just the worst thing. It's so bad. so the worst We don't deserve dogs. They are better than us. Much purer souls than we are So very sad times, but I'm still long dogs Listeners, we are going to be back in your ears on Tuesday, assuming Rob hasn't blown himself up with fireworks. So listen up then. Oneheedged is produced by Jake Harper and edited by Brian Erstatt. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. We had additional help from TopFa foreheads Special thanks to Laura Clark, Greta Cohn and Natalie Sadler FT premium subscribers can get the unhedged newsletter for free and a thirty day free trial is available to everyone else. Just go to ft d. com slash unhedged offer I'm Katie Martin, thanks for listening.