The Risk of Future Political Violence

I'm Aarasco, and you're listening to the Sunday Story from Up firstirst two hundred and fifty years ago this weekend, the Declaration of Independence was signed It marked the beginning of American democracy This year, MPR has been looking at how things have gone in the series America in Pursuit, stories from two hundred and fifty years of life, Lberty, and happiness. Americans tend to think about the Declaration of Independence as a founding document The start of something, the texts that brought the country together But if you read it closely, you realize it's also a breakup text good portion of the Declaration of Independence is saying it's not you, it's me. This just not going work. We don't work well together, you know. So in addition to being a document declaring freedom The Declaration of Independence is also a document of secession. Today, we have a story about a group of people who see themselves as following in a fundamentally American tradition group of people who are claiming their right to declare their independence from a state they feel no longer represents them We the people of the counties of New Illinois solenly publish and declare that these counties are and of right ought to be a free and independent state When we come back, a modern day secessionist movement in the state of Illinois, Stay with us with the Sunday Story. I'm joined by reporter Connor Town O'Neill He's spent months following a group of people who want to split up Illinois and create a fifty first state Conor, Hi, welcome to the podcast. Hey Aisha, G to be here So Connor, I just want to get this straight You've been talking to people who basically want to succeed from their own state? Yeah, I've been talking to people in the newew Illinois movement. New Illinois, that's what they'd call this new state And what they want is for all the counties in Illinois except Cook County, that's where Chicago is, to succeed and become their own state, the fifty first state So basically, they just want to ditch Chicago Why? to. In Illinois politics, to be far from Chicago is to be far from power Skaga was a big city, the third most populous in the country The rest of Illinois All right far less populated What that means is they don't have the same voting power as the Chicago area and the state legislature. Right now, because Chicago is a blue liberal area, Democrats have a veto proof super majority in the state legislature to the dismay of the people in rural downstate, Illinois who are mainly conservative Okay, so people from rural Illinois have created this group, New Illinois with the goal of sececeding from present day Illinois and starting a new state , that's a pretty ambitious goal. Is there even a legal pathway to do this? There is, and it's in the U.S. Constitution. The Constitution lays out in Aticle I, What has to happen in order to admit a new state to the Republic There are two big things the approval of Congress, and the approval of the state's legislature. So So that's a pretty high bar. I mean, especially since the reason the new Illinois people started their movement is that they don't like how their state legislature makes decisions. And it seems unlikely that the current state legislature is going to let, you know a whole lot of the state just up and leave. Exactly And there's no shortage of irony that this is all happening in the land of Lincoln But to be clear, those in the new Illinois movement They don't want to start a new country like the Confederacy did in the Civil War. They see themselves as a very proud, very patriotic movement, taking inspiration from the foundounding fathers. They want to stay in America notot in the same state as Chicago And leaders of New Illinois say they no longer consent to be governed in this way, the state run by the big city The only way they see to redress their grievances is to leave. So basically, they're making their argument taxation without representation That's right Aisha, back in October of twenty twenty, GH Merrit She's a chairman of New Illinois She formalized her group's intentions We hold these truths to be self evident that all men are created equal that they are endowed by On the steps of a courthouse in Western Illinois, she recited the Declaration of Independence. Providence. The original one. We mutually pledge to each other our lives, our fortunes, and our sacred honor. And then she recited the new one. We the people Of the counties of New Illinois. The one that declares independence from Illinois solemnly publish and declare that these counties are and of right ought to be a free and independent state So tell me more about GH Merit. Like so she's the one who got this started That's right. Yeah. She says she first got the idea to start a new state back in twenty eighteen She lives in northern Illinois up by a lake near the Wisconsin border And she says she was frustrated by the state's high taxes. She felt like all that power in Chicago didn't really translate into many opportunities elsewhere she and her husband considered moving away. ve in a house that my dad built And one day it just kind of hit me like an epiphany I want to sell my house It means too much to me. But I had sense almost of being propelled out of the state because our state is so corrupt and the taxes are so high And I just thought Why should I have to be the one to move Thus the tagline of the organization Leave Illinois without moving And, you know, the idea caught on T turns out, lots of people shared her frustrations Baisha, if you'll indulge me a little revolutionary history Well, I mean, you know, I think it's no better day than today. or this time, I think everybody's thinking about. Totally It's on everyone's mind. So you know, the original declaration, it included grievances against the king And they put those grievances in the document itself Break upp text And New Illinois has a list of grievances too. But Merritt told me they had to break precedent there. We didn't put grievances in our declaration because it would have been as long as an encyclopedia So the grievances, they publish them separately. They include tyrannically high taxes, unconstitutional gun laws, gerrymandering Dad. Immigration enforcement thereof The list goes on. So there are a lot of policies and laws that they don't like. but they do not have the votes to stop Exactly. Yeah. But at the same time, critics of New Illinois point out that the folks downstate actually benefit from Chicago's tax dollars Chicago is a big economic engine for the state There's this study from a few years ago showing just how Chicago helps rural counties Some counties, people will get back something like two dollars in change in state services for every dollar they pay in tax. On the other hand, people in Cook County, they get like ninety cents back for every dollar taxed So yeah, in that light, it's good to have Chicago in the state supppporters of splitting up the state, they push back on that though Given their own way, which I guess I mean given their own state They say they'll create their own economic engines They pledge to create a more business friendly environment. fewewer regulations, lower taxes. They want to revitalize the coal industry Plus, they see all these economic liabilities brought about by Chicago Democrats. They point to the state's debt and underfunded pension system. They claim the state' being overtaxed These are all things they want to get away from So instead of receiving the Chicago tax dollars, They want to generate, you know, the revenue themselves by like lowering taxes, bringing in new companies and things of that nature. They believe, like many conservatives that that will be better for them That's right. That's the game plan So I mean, it sounds like they have these plans and they have this vision But it seems like a bit performative because of that paradox that we talked about. You know, they're going to read the Declaration of Independence on the courthouse. It's dramatic, but what's it? Totally, totally. And you aren't alone in thinking it performative. I reached out to Governor JB Pritzker for comment about New Illinois. He called it a stunt Except the thing is, after all my reporting, it doesn't seem like a stunt to me New Illinois is serious and they're organized. How much support is there in the actual counties? Okay, so to understand that, you've got to meet Lorette Newan. probably the most persistent person in Illinois separation. so I guess that kind of makes me leader? So Nulan is very much a new Illinois secessionist. But her focus is on the mechanics of making it happen So she has her own group that works in tandem with New Illinois It's called the Illinois Separation Referendum. So the separation referendum. So they want voters to weigh in on this question of leaving Have voters weighed in? Yes. Part of the reason that New Illinois has had so much traction is in part because they've actually been able to get the question of secession onto the ballot This is a thing that people are voting on on election day. So how does that work So it's an advisory question. It's non binding, but it's been on the ballot in thirty three counties so far. That's a third of the counties in the state. And the response has been resounding in favor of the idea Nulan showed me a map of the referendum results so far Let's look at that map. Okay So talk to me. It is striking. I mean, you look at basically the southern half of the state Pretty well colored in there We can get solid from Edgar all the way to Christian County if we can get Douglas holes both on there. And those numbers, I will say, are striking Fayette Cy, seventy nine percent Clay County, eighty percent, Edgar County, eighty three percent. Those are big numbers. And we started from zero. They are thirty three for thirty three. like she's gotten this referendum on the ballot in thirty three counties and each time they've gotten a yes Big yes And it's easy for some to dismiss, say, Moultry County for voting for separation. There's a joke about how few stop lights there are in that county. How many are there? Two I think, But yeah, it's small. But then there's Madison County, which is a pretty big county. It's about two hundred fifty thousand people. It's part of the Stain. Louis Metro area And they voted to leave too N one told me after the Madison County referendum, more people started taking them seriously And she's not stopping at thirty three, right? Like she's going to want to go further. the midterm elections are coming up in November She is, That's right. So you can get the referendum on the ballot in one of two ways, either via petition or by lobbying a county board. Newan's done both She's petitioned everywhere. Cthouse squares, parking lots, even the junkyard, but she prefers going through a county board. Just this morning, I heard from Henderson County. They just voted six to two in favor of putting it on the ballot. We had three counties down in southern Illinois. gallatin Celinee and Hamilton that their boards all voted unanimously. Okay. so so these referendum results are proof of concept. like they are showing that there are people who do want this It seems like more and more people are going to get a chance to at least show their support for this on the ballot Yeah, so in answer to your original question, yes, they are serious and yes, they are making progress. We'll be right back We're back with the Sunday story. So we have the secession movement in Illinois called New Illinois, and they have a ton of support in these rural counties Ka, I'm curious how the people in this movement actually gaining all this support. How are they getting the word out and getting people on their side through a whole lot of lobying, Aisha Larry Mulch, he's the vice chairman of New Illinois. A few months back, I drove out to Hancock County in Western Illinois to interview him. I want to save Illinois. and it's worth saving. Mulch and I talked at the Hancock County courthouse, where Mulch holds monthly meetings for his new Illinois committee. So inside the courthouse, so they're working on building a new state inside a government building for the old state They're actually holding these meetings in a courthouse where a portrait of Abraham Lincoln hangs in the lobby, which, again, historical irony abounds. And whileile the ballot referendum demonstrates the movement's support among voters, I was also starting to see the traction they have higher up. Larry Mulch is an elected official. He's a township supervisor And the former sheriff of Hancock County is in the group That's how they were able to use the courthouse in the first place And Mulch explained to me, that's why they're organizing on this grassroots county by county basis. That's the purpose is to go out and find a core group within that county that is willing to do whatever's necessary. You build a base of support among your neighbors Y township supervisors, your sheriff Th then you start to lobby the county board, the state senators And they're speaking from a place that is so resonant to so many of their neighbors. Lots of people I've spoken with talk about downstate Illinois as fundamentally different from Chicago person, everyone I spoke with referenceced the history of downstate Illinois. settled in the nineteenth century, largely by Kentucky and Tennessee farmers. Well, early on, Chicago had more of a connection to shipping, the Great Lakes, and then of course became this big metropolis As they see it, the state is cleav together To places with two pasts, two presents, two ways of life. We are different people And we've got a different mindset. And so when you feel so connected to a place, but you don't see your priorities, your values, your worldview reflected in how that place is run A distress, but also a motivation. sense of powerlessness is always the driving force. So Aisha, I talked to an expert on seccession movements, Dr. Kenneth Owen. He's a history professor at the University of Illinois Springfield. He's been following N to Illinois for years. I think there is something about the idea of secession. that appeals to the American mindset. I think it's part of the American founding myth. Having our own government is a way that they can reclaim some of that power that they feel that they don't have So Owen says there are two hallmarks of these movements. One a sense of cultural identity distinct from the place you're secceding from And two, clear political stakes, a sense of what can be gained by leaving Owen sees both at work in New Illinois. They are building the sort of political infrastructure that you would expect to need. I just think that there are much greater structural impediments ahead of them. And those impediments, I imagine are the constitutional requirements for starting a new state. That's right, That's right. So given all of that, like what are the chances of this actually happening? Has something like this ever happened before in the US? So New Illinois likes to point to West Virginia as president Kenethone doesn't really think that applies. West Virginia seceded from Virginia because Virginia had seceded from the United States The context of the Civil War is so distinct it just wouldn't set a precedent. People also point to Maine leaving Massachusetts. That's part of the Missouri compromise of eighteen twenty, this agreement to let one slave holding state, Missouri, into the Union, along with one free state, Maine to maintain this precarious balance in the lead up to the Civil War So again, Owen says, the context is just totally distinct. So there is in theory a constitutional mechanism It has never been used to create a new state on this scale. So you're saying there's a chance. This is what's interesting about secession, right? They all sound crazy right up until the time that they happened. Okay, it's a long shot And even though some people are dismissing it as a stunt been digging in and the people who are organizing this are serious and they're taking serious steps So something is happening here But it seems like it's about to run straight into a wall That is the state legislature So what happens if this doesn't work So I asked Keneth Owen about this He says there's a best case scenario in which the tension can actually prove productive for the state It's maybe about reopening the social contract. So in a lot of the cases that I've studied, people are really unhappy about a particular issue reggular political channels haven't quite worked And then whenot threatens sucession, it gets lots of attention and it starts a conversation that moves things together So I mean, the threat of secession could be looked at as kind of like a check engine light. Exactly. And as a blinking light already working. Take Leshawn Ford He's a Democrat from Chicago in the state legislature who takes the concerns of New Illinois seriously. Rural Illinois and urban Illinois, we need to figure out how we could find common ground And Ford actually spoke at a new Illinois conference back in twenty twenty three He's described by the group as the only Democrat in the legislature willing to have the conversation about splitting the state Well, that's an overstatement. He does see himself as someone they can talk to someone who can dialogue. But what is his stance on the issue He's against it And said so at the new Illinois conference, he thinks those two extra dollars of funding that the rural counties are getting from Chicago provide crucial services infrastructure He thinks leaving would be cutting off your nose to spite your face And he puts the issue in more populous terms. It's not really North and south at war is the have and have nights. Ford says the issues is facing working people Food deserts, healthcare. They're the same across Illinois But his solution progressive tax on the wealthy It's a non starter for conservatives downstate who are allergic to taxation the impasse holds. Well, you know, the policy debate here, taxes, regulation, guns It is extremely familiar because we hear it over and over again and it just seems intractable I also have to ask Connor, this rural mostly white group is complaining about Big city To what extent is this about race? This was a big question for me too Everyone I asked in the movement, they denied any kind of racial animus behind their work But Lehaan Ford had an interesting take on the question. I think that it's overwhelming issue. But I do think that people are aggravated about black people But I mean, like Sometimes that becomes a hunting bag and people start s. See, all of our teax cars are being wasted in Chicago. So he doesn't see it as The factor But tent to aggravating factor. Does Ford see race shaping the issue in other ways? He does Me being a black man Even though this country's been good to me, it's still F frustrating being in a minority And that's the way they feel. They know what it feels like to be in a minority and not be able to have the sway that they would like. Do you have any advice, man? given that? Yeah, I think that my advice to them is let's work together, let's make Illinois stronger. But how does that stronger together We're one Illinois message play with the new Illinois movement aboutbout as well as you'd expect And I don't think many people in a state are under any illusions about unity An Illinois historian has compared the state to a set of conjoined twins. The diagnosis from a longime journalist here was schizophrenia Given that the odds are against the session actually passing legislatively, other outcomes might there be In one scenario, the state just carries this tension In another scenario, the tension continues to ratch it up. Here's how Kenneth Owen sees it. Do the circumstances exist for political violence to break out in the United States at the moment? Yes Is it likely I'm not sure that political violence is ever likely or unlikely when those circumstances exist. Most of the time that a rebellion breaks out, it's because there's a spark that lit the fire. The question is how many sparks are there around? Well Clearly, it sounds like you've been seeing a whole lot of sparks. Yeah So Ayisha, let me take you one last place over to Highland, Illinois. This Sain. Patrick's dayay, I went to meet Virgil Strader Strader is in N new Illinois's transitional legislature, helping to build the political infrastructure for the state Drafting a constitution writing laws, In his day job, he's an auctioneer. He was hosting a benefit auction for the local quarterback club Y mom com sit here next you if that's right. So over a plate of corned beef and cabbage, I chatted with the people at my table That right. Afterward, I told Virgil about our conversation. So I told them a little bit about the story that I was working on. They hadn't heard of New Illinois. and yet Everyone at the table, you know, they're talking about the gas tax. They're talking about the tax that finances the trains in Chicago, It is a thing that people are kind of fluent in, even if they're not necessarily involved in the movement. How can you not be fluent in if you're subject to it We have taxation without representation. taxation without representation. they're aligning themselves with the American Revolution. Exactly. There's no way to fix it. politically There comes a time of reckoning and we're getting very close I wonder for you Is there a point where you'd think like this isn't working O or If it didn't work, crab be gun Strader says, if they neither get the approval of the state nor the federal legislatures, then that could potentially trigger violence. If we don't get the approval of the Illinois legislators, then I would say that there was there would be a better than a fifty percent chance that we would we would have a Now a bill to split the state was introduced during the most recent legislative session in Illinois, but it didn't make it out of committee The legislator who introduced that bill, Brad Halrok He told me the plan is to introduce the bill again in the next session When I asked him about the possibility of violence, he pointed to the Declaration of Independence The founding fathers weren't worried about the law, he said. They were worried about the political will to do something different That's where we're at in Illinois, he said question for Halbrook was, what are you prepared to do? Well and when he says, what are you prepared to do, does that essentially mean like are you willing to take up arms? That's the question on Virgil Strader's mind He tells me there's no militia associated with New Illinois, but he does know people with heavy arsenals who would be willing to join a secessionist fight. We may surround the Capitol buildilding in Springfield I wouldn't rule that out. There's no been no talk of doing that But I wouldn't rule it out Strer imagines fantasizes maybe A scenario in which an armed group would surround the Capitol and demand to form a new state forcing the split without having to fire a shot you see only two options on the table separating Civil warar. could it I just, you know could it really come to that hope not. It has in the past It's just How much bullshit you going gonna to put up with? And and we've had enough. That's a sobering thought. It is It is. I wouldn't wish that on anybody War is not something to brag about. War is not something to be proud of Is a man's inhumanity demand by the same token. If you push hard enough and long enough att some point in time. It's like whipping the dog in the corner. For long, he's going to come out and he's gonna to get you. The chairman of New Illinois, GH Merritt She disavowed any talk of war She said leaving Chicago was more like leaving a bad marriage to avoid killing your partner. And Louorette Newan of Illinois Sparation. She stressed that she was putting the advisory question on the ballot instead of waging war. as if the referendum acted almost as a pressure release valve for this urban rural tension in the state This year, Newan has persuaded eight more county boards to include the separation referendum on the ballot in the upcoming midterm elections She continues to lobby in more counties But in doing so, does she risk spreading sparks to more of the state pushed her on it You have got your finger on the pulse of something here. And I'm wondering if it doesn't work What happens to that energy You know That's not something I spend any time thinking about Ill tell you, I'm a farm girl. You plant anyway You don't know what. storms are going to come You don't know what the temperature is going to be. you don't You don't know what the price is going to be You plant the seed An way the seed anyway I guess the question is what's going to grow Totally Thank you, Connor, for bringing us all of this great reporting. Thanks, Hicha. Good to be with you. That was Connor Town O'Neill, reporting from Illinois. This episode of the Sunday Story was a co production with Bead it Door It was produced by Sharon Mashii with Help from Ben Rapppaport and edited by Jenny Schmidt Checking by Will Chase and Engineering by Jimmy Keey The rest of the Sunday Story team includes Andrew Mombo and Leanna Simstrom Irene Naguchci is our executive producer. Special thanks to Chip Brantley and Illinois Public Media I'm I Sarasco, and up first is backack tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week. Until then have a great rest of your weekend