Political Stakes of the Iran Deal

British Prime Minister Kir Starmer resigned after months of pressure from his own party. His likely successor is the popular mayor from Manchester. Will he fare any better than six previous leaders who didn't last long? I'm Steven Skkepe with Michelle Martin, and this is up first from NPR News U. S. Iran talks almost fell apart in Switzerland over the weekend when President Trump threatened new strikes The first round ended with a sixty day roadmap for a final deal, but Iran says the real test of the agreement is stopping the war in Lebanon. And the deal with Iran is facing scrutiny from the president's own party. Trump is struggling to sell it to his MAGA base, and Republican Warhawks say the agreement is too weak. and Perz Mar Eliason breaks down the political stakes as the midterm elections loom Stay with us, we've got news you need to start your day This message comes from Viking, committed to exploring the world and comfort. 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What's in your wallet? Terms apply. details at capital onene d. comot A revolving door of seven prime ministers in just ten years. That's the state of politics in the United Kingdom. The latest Kir Starmer has just made this announcement. I will resign. as leader of the Labour Party I have spoken to His Majesty, the King this morning to inform him of my decision This means he eventually steps down as UK prime Minister, though his party remains in power for the moment. His likely successor is Andy Burnham, the outgoing mayor of Manchester, England. For more on how that transition happens and why, let's go to MPRSs Lauren Freyer in London. Lauren, good morning Good morning, Michelle. So why has Stormmer resigned Yeah, he was elected two years ago with a landslide majority in Parliament, and now he has the lowest approval ratings of any prime minister in UK history. Part of it is scandals you may have heard about, his decision to appoint Peter Mandelson, a friend of Jeffrey Epstein as the UK ambassador to Washington. But part of it is Starmer's failure to connect with people and to deliver real change that he promised after fourteen years of austerity under the previous Conservative Party rule, improvements on cost of living and such His own Labor partarty lawmakers, his parliamentary party, began turning on him in recent weeks. And here's what he said from behind a lecttern at ten Downing Street moments ago. att some points, his voice cracking and breaking with tears and emotion question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my Parliamentary party to that question. And I accept that answer with good grace Starmer said he will stay on as a caretaker prime mininister, and then nominations for his successor will open on the ninth of July. So it will be a summer of politics here. Tell us about his likely successor Yeah, so labor MPs seem to be coalescing around Andy Burnham. He's the popular outgoing mayor of Manchester, England. He was an MP in the past, a member of Parliament, then returned home to Northern England to serve as mayor in his home region. He brought economic development to post industrial Manchester as mayor. He won a special election to Parliament last week. He's actually being sworn into parliament this afternoon after which he will be eligible to challenge Starmer. He's seen more as sort of folksy able to connect with voters in a way that Starmer did not, perhaps slightly to the left of Starmer, more likely to sort of robustly defend a welfare state, but he will face the same headwinds, you know, rising global energy prices, strained public finances. in a way this A change in personality at the top rather than policy. You know, both Burnham and Starmer are from the same party with roughly the same politics. But Burnham would be the seventh British prrime Mister in ten years. Has that revolving door had an impact? Yeah, I spoke this morning with a former political secretary to former Prime Minister Tony Blair. His name is John McTernan. And he reminded me, actually tomorrow is the tenth anniversary of the Brexit vote when Britons voted to exit the European Union.ister then Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the very next day. Brexit ultimately hurt the British ecomy economy, you triggered ten years of political turmoil that we are still experiencing now That is. And here's Lauren Freyer in London. Lauren, thank you You're welcome The U.S. and Iran had a long first day of negotiations in Switzerland with the goal of permanently ending the war. President Trump was not there, but was close to his phone, and made bellicose remarks on social media that threatened to upend the talks just as they were starting. The two sides have agreed previously to a roadmap and have sixty days to resolve a host of issues For details,' joined by MPOs Greg Mi, who is in Tel Aviv, Greg Helli. Hi, Michelle. So they've given themselves sixty days. How did day one go Well, it was pretty rocky. Vice President JD. Vance led the US delegation in Switzerland and he sounded an upbeat note, but President Trump threatened in social media posts and in interviews to again attack Iran. At one point, the Iranian media said the country's delegation was walking out because of Trump's comments, though that didn't actually happen The talks lasted into the early hours of Monday. The two countries mediating the talks, Pakistan and Qatar, put out a statement saying there was encouraging progress and the U. S. and Iran have agreed to a roadmap. This includes a working group on the war in Lebanon, which will clearly be a key part of these talks. They also set up a line of communication to deal with the strait of Hormuz, and lower level working groups are now set to continue meetings all week. Okay, I'm going to ask you about all these things. I'll take them one by one. First, what is happening with the war in Lebanon You know, yesterday was a good day. UN peacekeepers said they did not record shooting by either side Sunday. The first such day since the fighting erupted on march second. It's now midday here today and so far remains quiet But it's still very combustible. Iran's foreign mininister, Abas Araki said the first real test of this peace effort is the Lebanon war. There was very heavy fighting Friday and Saturday. Israeli troops remain miles inside southern Lebanon. The Israeli leader, Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will keep troops there for as long as it takes, he says, to protect Northern Israel Abollah is also defiant, saying the war will not be settled until Israeli troops leave Lebanon. Okay, let's turn to the strait of Hormz. Is oil still flowing today? Yeah, Michelle, it's a hard one. It's kind of unclear at the moment. Iran said over the weekend it was closing the strait because of the fighting in Lebanon, but that was before the fighting died down in the last day and a half Now, U S. Central commommand says the strait remains open.Qote, Iran does not control the strait of Haruz. Tffic continues to flow. Now, according to groups monitoring shipping traffic, dozens of ships pass through the strait Saturday. This was one of the busiest days, maybe the busiest day since the waterway was closed nearly four months ago. But the traffic slowed down sharply on Sunday. We're keeping watch today trying to see what's happening And of course, the big issue remains Iran's nuclear program Was there any movement on that front? So a US diplomat, who's not authorized to speak publicly, said there were quote, robust discussions on all elements of the nuclear deal. Now, the statement by the Pakistan and Qatar mediators mentioned the nuclear issue as one of several discussed, but gave no details It seems the immediate focus is these urgent questions like the war in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz The US. certainly expects to address Iran's nuclear program in depth and once a deal, but it may not be the top of the agenda right now. Interesting, since that was the stated reason for starting all this That is NPOs Greg Myey and Tlev, Greg, thank you sureure thing, Michelle. As Greg mentioned, Vice President Jade Avance flew to a Swiss resort over the weekend working out the details of a tentative peace plan between the U. S. and Iran Here is the vice president before talks began. The question before us now is how much more can we accomplish together? Can we turn over a new leaf? Can we change relations in the Middle East? Pan Raising those questions, Vans sounded tentative about the answers, which is also true of the memorandum of understanding that the two sides signed last week. It leaves a lot to negotiate. With Congress coming back to Washington this week, NPR senior national political correspondent Mara Lyson is with us now to tell us more about the political stakes for Trump in this moment. Good morning, Mara Good morning. How is this memorandum of understanding playing in the US so far Well, Trump is struggling to sell it. He's getting criticism from both wings of his own party. There are some in the Make America Great again MGa base who are angry that he went to war in the first place. Many of them voted for him because he promised not to get involved in any more foreign wars And they don't feel like the U. S. has achieved anything of value so far. Then there are conservative Iran haawks in the GOP who feel the deal is weak, that it doesn't do any better than a deal made by former President Barack Obama, which Trump has criticized. bitterly. And they also say that Trump's stated goals in the war haven't been met. There's certainly been no unconditional surrender, no regime change. Iran gets hundreds of millions of dollars in unfrozen assets. And so far, there's nothing to stop Iran from enriching uranium or building a nuclear weapon Has Trump responded to this criticism? How is he taking this Well, he's not very happy about it. He called his critics stupid and bad people. He was particularly angry about a New York Times headline that he actually rep posted on social media, the headline said, quote, What changed after almost four months of war? Analysts say not much. And Trump went on to say that the Iranian Air Force is gone, itss military is decimated. itss leaders were killed. and all that is true But it also appears that Iran took a beating, but the regime is still in place, arguably more hardline than the previous one, and Iran has been able to deploy a powerful new weapon they never used before, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and that's given them leverage over the world economy. So why make a deal now? I mean, what is at stake for President Trump and his party The short answer is the US economy. The economic pressure once the Strait of Hormz was closed and prices went up, seems to have pushed Trump to make this deal. And when he signed it last week, in France, he said he didn't want to be like former President Herbert Hoover. Here's what he said. rather than Possibly going into a depression rather than having your favorite president be Herbert Hoover I was always the one I didn't want to be So Trump is being very transparent. He doesn't want to be seen as responsible for inflation rising. He's basically telling the world and his opponents what his pain point is which is four dollars a gallon gasoline So just in a couple minutes we have left here, Mamara, what Greed Trump back in Washington when he returned from signing that tentative deal with Iran. Well one thing he found was the reflecting pool at the Lincoln Memorial was full of green, slimy, algae and peeling blue paint That happened, maybe, because the pool is now absorbing more sunlight and heat after Trump had its bottom painted dark blue. So you could see that green algae and peeling blue paint as a metaphor for Trump's troubles getting the world to follow his orders, or you could see it as just a temporary blip as he makes Washington, DC more beautiful. att least in his eyes in his eyes. That is Empir's Mara Las and Mara, thank you You're welcome