Speculating on the New Cabinet Appointments

This is a global production. Ed Milliband, I think, has not covered himself in glory recently, because he's a close friend of Kist Aarma. and actually I think helped get him into Parliament and helped him become leader. And he more than anyone else has stabbed Kir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks and I think Kirstarmer has a right to feel very bitter that And this notothing to say that he wouldn't do the same to Andy Burnham. I don't think and that Ed Milliband will be Chancellor under Andy Burnham. I'll tell that I can tell you who I think will possibly. Let's set together after three onene, two, three W Sing. This is not an emergency podcast. Repeat. this is not an emergency podcast. We always record on Monday afternoon and that's what we're doing. But it's not often, Well actually it's become increasingly often that you can record a podcast where a Pime Minister leaves office But where were you when you heard the news Tussa? I was running back from the school gate because I'd waited all morning listening intermittently to radio four. I know. I did dip occasionally in Ferrario I promise to see S such a liar. Foundes. It wasnt that obvious?. I'd be a brilliant politician But anyway, I thought, who are they going to put up this morning to take the flag? becausecause Kirstar has been in lockdown with his wife. Really interesting parallels between Vic, by the way and Sherry Blair will come onto that And I thought, if they've got nobody doing the rounds, that means that Kiss Starmer's the full guy. He's going to take it. But of course they delivered after nine PM, nine AM rather, sorry, I've got my clocks in a mudel, which was slightly gutting because I'd hung on til five minutes to nine and then had to rush and leave ale. So I missed the live. I had to listen to him and repeat, veryer upsetting. Well, I missed it too but for a very different reason. Wh, pray why. I'm still sleep. I did mean to get up earlier because I obviously thought this would happen this morning But I woke up about eight and then went straight back to sleep You're wrong, there was a minister doing the rounds and it was Jackie Smith because I didn't hear her. Well I don't knowether she did the todayoday programme She certainly did others. I spoke to her yesterday evening about half past ten because I've I think I have mentioned this before. She's asked me to do a reading at her wedding at the beginning of August. and I've written, I didn't want to do one of these sort of things you just find on the internet. So I thought, well, I'll write one myself So I wrote this poem, which I think I test it out on you and Corey And anyway, she sent me the whole sort of script of how it's all going to work And I read it and I'm thinking, I don't know whether what I've written is really appropriate because she said you can make it a little bit irreverent if you want So of course, naturally I did So she then emailed this thing to me And I said, well, I think I'd better read out to you what I've written. and please be honest if you think it's inappropriate. Anyway, she really liked it. So then we of course started talking about what's going on. And she told me that she was on the media round this morning. I said, Are you mad? What on earth did you say yes to doing that for That does seem extraordinary that she agreed to doing the media aroundound. I take my hat off to her to be honest, because it wasn't an easy job. Douglas Alexander was on this lunchtime and he, like Jackie, straddled the new Labor administration and the current one. And it's interesting just how quickly he pivoted one hundred eighty to on the one hand, say, you know, emotion here hear his voice breaking, the sadness brutality politics and then yeah, well me and Andy, we go back to way when too And actually I wonder what Jackie would have said if she'd been on the lunchtime round because she could use that card. Oh she could. She could Well, of course, I served in the cabinet with Andy Berham. What a magnificent cabinet minister he was I haven't That's what Douglas Alexander said He said I served in the cabinet. Well, the fact is, I mean, held two positions. He was culture secretary and health secretary And I don't think Anyone can remember anything he did that was major in either job, apart from privatise a hospital which may come back to haunt him. as may that video that's just surfaced from the twenty fifteen leadership campaign, where he said, Well, of course, the first country I would visit If I became leader is Israel. Well you can imagine that's going to go down well among the brethren First of all, twenty fifteen in terms of where we are with Israel is a long time ago and more specifically where the Labour Party are with Israel Secondly, I know you're again, Andy. No Great hair, a good complexion. I think you are a bit instinctively anti Andy Well I' this. I'm okay. let me lay my cards on the table. I'm anti Andy in the sense that I'm anti labour I like him as a person, I always have done I don't think he's going to be a good Prime Minister. And I want the next Prime Minister to be a good prime Mister for all sorts of different reasons, because if he turns out to be the emperor with no clothes, which is what I wrote yesterday We're all going to suffer for that And we can't really afford another failure as Prime Minister. So I genuinely wish him well. I want him to do well But I'm not confident that he will. He'll talk a good game, that's for sure. But also if you think about it The key to his success has got to be the people that he has around him, both in Downing Street and in his cabinet Do we expect his cabinet? And we'll come onto this a bit later do expect his cabinet to be markedly different from Kia Starma's. I don't think we do, but let's talk about that in a bit. Several things that I want to address in this podcast because I think it'll help us understand better how we've ended up here with a seventh prime Minister in ten years. Incidentally my international friends are like What was wrong with Ka Like they're a bit perplexed actually because on the international stage, I think they feel he's been credible even Positive influence in the international conversation and some people that I've met have expressed regret and are confused. Well, go back to nineteen ninety and there are so many parallels to be drawn with nineteen ninety. and let's expand on that in a bit. But everyone around the world in nineteen ninety could not understand how the Conservative partarty could ditch Margaret Thatcher. Let's remember, she had won three elections. She never lost an election. She'd been to all intents and purposes, incredibly successful, particularly on the international front And yet the Conservative Party got rid of her because they didn't think she could win the next election. And that's essentially why the Labour Party is getting rid of Kir Starmer because they don't see him as an election winner for the next time. And he he acknowledged that in his speech. Which begs the deeper question, and let's try and interrogate this in the pod Why is he so despised, disliked. It's disproportionate in relation to his political crimes And I think if you can get to the bottom of that, you can work out why and how and perhaps Andy might be a success. And I think that's a really good question. I think there is a very simple answer to it He hasn't got the liability factor. And that may sound shallow That's what modern day politics is partly about. Yes, you need to command respect People also need to like you or not hate you. And hate is a very strong word to use about Prime Ministers. Um, but People have come to hate him. I was listening to Alistair Campbell earlier and he was saying that he just doesn't understand this phenomenon of people intensely disliking Kiss arma because he says he's not a dislikeable guy. And I think if he was on this podcast with us, we'd probably quite like him. but he hasn't managed to transmit that through to the electorate in any meaningful way People don't like the way he talks. People don't like the fact that he's a North London sort of Islington type liberal sort of a little bit wo key on some issues, that doesn't go down with that group of the electorates who would describe themselves as maybe centrist, but on the edge of centrism, if you see what I mean on the right I still don't think that explains why he's loathed. I get that he's a disappointment. I get that he lacks charisma. I get that despite his father being a toolmaker, he's associated with the bourgeois in Islington, but it doesn't explain why he's loathed. I would suggest it's because his ordinariness. and his establishmentism because he very much is by the book. He's a rule. He's not ordinary though. He can drone on about being a son of a toolmaker for all he likes, but he doesn't look like an ordinary person. Andy Berham does to be fair and really tries to capitalize on that. I mean this spectacle of him this morning Coming down from Manchester as if he's come to save the country, coming down the King of the North becoming the new emperor with no clothes, getting on the train in his black t shirt, no jacket black jeans. What was he wearing? He wasn't wearing shoes, was he? He was wearing some trendy as it grocks hang on a minute. he was wearing Birkenstocks. This is what normal person wears birkenstocks Oh well, according to the Times newspaper, that Bastion of establishment thinking, going back to what I'm saying, about that being where the mood is, this is what they said about Andy's wear yesterday. Imagine by the way, if Kase Starmer had been wearing backkin stocks, it wasn't. It was Andy. this is what they wrote pair of Birkenstocks? Burkeys? question mark An eighty five pound pair of orthopedic sandals isn't the brainwave of a spin doctor Burnnham's bare feet looked clean His nails neat, but not newly pedicured for the photograph. With Burnham, you can tell the uniglow man uniform is a real one notot something put on for the polls Really? At times I want it to bath in my mouth. Yeah I like that. I mean, look, this image that he's built up for himself is sort of You can trust me, I'm a northerner. I speak the truth That goes only so far, and I think he's been very successful in that so far But when you get comedians starting to take the piss out of you for it then I think you're possibly entering a slight problem area. I don't know. I think when comedians take the Mickey out of you, it can be seen as a compliment. It can be seen that your brand is breaking through. I still want to, and it's a very significant tenth anniversary tomorrow, the day that most people be listening to this pod So we're going to touch on the B word because there is a connection whether you like it or not into the fact that we have our seventh prrime Minister or' about to have our seventh prime Minister in ten years, and that's the ten year anniversary of Brexit. But also if we may, I want to look at what I think is K Stara being the personification of British decline we have for decades said, o, you know, we bked out the empire. We didn't care. we shed the empire, we moved on We never did move on in and we've got really exceptional ideas of ourselves. and I'm not saying they're necessarily wrong But I'm saying that when they are up against an anemic economy led by a man who looks ordinary in all the wrong ways, we can't stomach it. And that's what Kistdara was, the personification of where Britain's at. Up to a point, Lord Copper, let's go to a break and we will pick that up in just a moment Have you ever wanted to hear some of the biggest names in politics, entertainment and sport properly explain who they are, what they believe, and what's really shaped them? That's the heart of full Disclosure podcast with me, James O'Brien. In each episode, I go beyond the public version of guests like Gary Linaker, Dwn French, David Harewood, and more to get into the experiences and defining moments that made them who they are You'll hear revealing stories, unexpected reflections and the kind of detail you rarely get anywhere else. So if you're looking for real insight and conversations with substance, you'll find exactly that on full disclosure. Listen and watch on Global Player, YouTube or wherever you get your podcast The recording of this pod has interrupted me listening to Tom is it Bradbury, the biographer? Baldwa? Baldwin, that's the one I feel I've done you a service then He is way way too close to his product. He loves Ki Starmer. likeike he sounds more emotional than Starma. It is ridiculous that he is Starmer's biographer. I mean, it's a bit like me thinking, oh well I'll write a biography of Mark Oh I did, didn't I? D Yeahah I never think it makes for the best history. That's all when the person writing it is so partial. Yeah. He was also very close to the Blair administration. and I mean, Alistair Campbell used to leak to him like a Sve and also indeed to Gordon Brown I mean, he wasn't a bad journalist. I mean he did disco he did break quite a lot of big stories when he was on the Times Um, but yeah And I I had a bit of a, should we say, feud with him And we buried the hatchet, so to speak, when Ed Milliban was leader and he was Ed Milliban's Director of commommunications because I wanted Ed Milliban to do a phone in with me. and he was the block So we had a coffee in Bortcl's house and sorted it all out and then the phoning happened, so got my way in the end, as I usually do. Very good. And we've seemingly and seamlessly segued to Ed Milliband. Now he's being touted as possible Chancellor and given the heat wave, I think very well placed, our net zero champion green fueling the economy. What do you feel about that then as a prospect I think there is no prospect whatsoever of Ed Milliband being Chancellor of the Exchrecher under Andy Burnham, but I may live to regret saying that because he has been heavily tipped But if you are an incoming prrime Minister And you want to reassure the markets and you want somebody who is basically going to be a steady chancellor rather than a radical left wing chancellor, you're not going to pick E Milliband. And I have to say, Ed Milliband, I think, has not covered himself in glory recently because he's a close friend of Kistarma and actually, I think help get him into Parliament and helped him become leader And he, more than anyone else, has stabbed Kir Starmer in the back over the last few weeks. And I think K Starmer has a right to feel very bitter that O this Nothing to say that he wouldn't do the same to Andy Burnham. I don't think that Ed Milliband will be Chancellor under Andy Burnham.ll I can tell you who I think will possibly. Let's set it together after three one, two, three W Seting Well, because Wes, I think surprised a lot of us by immediately, as soon as Andy Burnham put his tweet out, basically said, Yeahah, I'm going to row in behind Andy Burnham. I didn't expect him to do that And I'm not sure that's the right thing to do actually for all sorts of reasons. not least because it means that there's likely now to be a coronation, which gives Andnty Birden very little time to prepare for being the new Prime Minister And we know I wrote about this yesterday on my substack We know that the same thing happened to Gordon Brown. He had no plan when he came in L what happened And that happened in spades with Thesa May. She wasn't expecting to become Prime Minister, but suddenly Andrea Ledson pulled out. And so instead of becoming Prime Minister in septtember twenty sixteen, she became Prime minister on july the eighth or ninth And she had no plan for government whatsoever, and boy did it show? . I think that's unfair. First of, Theereresa May was a Brexit sticking blaster. We're coming to Brexit, which I think is the bleeding wound that's delivering this ever revolving door. So I think Theresa May can be forgiven for a lack of a plan. Gordon Brown came end of a fizzling out new Labour administration. He got the fag bart at the very bottom of the bin and he was never going to float partly because he like his armor lacked degree of Chismal, alough I think wed look back and think if is true. That is true. But Gordon Brown had wanted to be Prime Minister basically ever since he lost the leadership to Tony Blair in nineteen ninety four. So naturally, everyone assumed that when he did become Prime Minister, he would have a plan of what he wanted to do with the office. and it soon became very clear that there was no plan Arguably, in comparison with Kistama, Andy Burnham gets a marginally better inheritance. We've seen reasonable, in fact, surprising economic figures over the last few weeks that I think weren't expected, inflation, GDP, etcetera. two big meetings, one of which I think he's going to be heading up, Andy Burnham, if he does get the coronation And that this is that renegotiation with the EU, although apparently they're thinking about whether they need to shift the date. And the other one, which presumably Kir Starmer will use as his swan song is NATO and that defense spending review. You'll have to make his mind up on that again, one of his parting shots, forgive the pun. But I think that Burnham is better placed now than Starmer was two years ago actually able Britain to feel like it might be in a slightly better place come than the election.' about this. You can't govern by vibes and he's very much seen as the vibbey prime Minister at the moment. You have to have a plan of what you want to do in all sorts of different areas before you come into office And he's shown no significant plan at the moment. If you ask me what his view is on any given issue and I probably couldn't tell you And that says a lot for I mean, you and I live and breathe politics certainly I live and breathe politics, possibly a bit more than you do. But if I can't articulate what he really believes in apart from himself and Manchester then I think the country might have a problem. Yes, he may all make us feel a bit better. and there's a lot to be said for that And I think he may be very good presentationally Where's the beef? And mean that's a question I asked on the podcast a couple of weeks ago And Okay, he's been fighting it by election. so you could say, well, he may have used the time to sort of draft up some policies But what does he believe in social care, for example, where he was the person who launched a review on social care when he was health secretary? have time to implement it. But he must have views on that, but we don't know what they are Do we know whether he thinks the fiscal rules should be loosened? Do we know that he even knows what they are after that interview with Victoria Derbysire? Do we know what he thinks about NATO and defence spending We don't, and I just hope that he does know what he thinks because otherwise we're in for a repeat performance. I think crucially, in a way that Starmer isn't, he's more collegiate, which is why we've seen West Streeting on the right of the party step in behind him. and that will make a big difference because you're going to get once again Labour and the government representing a broader church The other thing that he's all about and surely this is about, but not only Manchesterism or Makerfielderism, he's about the politics of place which you identified, K Stahmer was unable to ever own because of that Islington vibe. So Andy can speak to the idea of leveveling up first introduced by Boris Johnson. Okay. And these things are crucially important. If we acknowledge that the Labour Party got voted in on a manifesto, which arguably still stands, does it? if they're not going back This isue This is the isue election. I mean there are so many different consequences from what's going on at the moment and In theory, the manifesto does stand When you have a new Prime Minister, they're obviously going to want to put their own stamp on things and there will be things in that manifesto that he did not agree with. Again, I don't know what they are but we will probably soon find out. And then you have then of course, if he does do that, that plays into the hands of those who think that there should be a general election, which what Farage is calling for, I mean rather predictably in many ways. Interesting in Keby Betenok is being a bit more reticent on that. just as an aside I was supposed to be doing a phone in with Kemy tonight and you can imagine how gutted I am to be on holiday this week that I'm not actually going to be on the radio. But anyway I'll have to drown my sorrows in by watching football. I don't know the answer to that question and now you've got Mike Taap, the homeome offffice mininister saying that he believes that there should now be legislation to say to prevent this constant stream of prrime Ministers, which I think is a ridiculous idea. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of the British Constitution. Now I'm not suggesting The British Constitution can't be changed, but to suggest that you should legislate stop a prime minister being toppled by their party. I just think is for the birds. Two things. I know that we're mainly about politics today, but I have dug up because I was moved by Kistama's speech. If only he could have been that human for the last two years, we might not be toughing him out in his ear, telling him that he's the most unpopular prime minister that's ever stepped across the threshold of number ten. I've got a few quotes from previous resignation speeches from prime mininisters. And because you consider yourself the political guru of all time, I'm going to test you publicly, potentially expose you, let's see. That's coming up in just a second. And also do I know you're going to hate me, but I just want to go down the Brexit road if we may on the tenth anniversary because there's really interesting polling around where Britain sat on the issue of the EU before that Bloomberg speech. Guess what? Most of us Well over ninety percent of us shit. It's a fabricated division and that I think is one of the reasons why I hate Brexit I'll have some interesting things to say on that, but I've also got some interesting polling, which the Observer Commission from Ugv and which because it didn't turn out to have the result that they wanted, they've sat on and not published. So we'll do that in the last bit of the podcast and then take a few questions. But I've also I want to put to bed this myth that Britain is ungovernable because we've had so many different prime ministers in the last ten years This is, if you look at British history Nothing unusual. It's unusual in the last century because the last time this happened was in the nineteen twenties But it is not unusual if you go back in history. In fact, it's happened more times than even I thought. We'll come on to that in just a moment very excited about now inoning as one of our former prime Ministers. The one thing you can guarantee about being a prrime Minister is you won't end up a prime Minister. veryery rare to die in office. Has there ever been a Prime Minister He's d. Spencer Percival did Indeed. I I forgotten the very significant Spencer Perseval? Well, because he was assassinated. He's the only British prrime minister to have been assassinated. so I'm very surprised that you've forgotten about him. You have put him on my list. This isn't my strong part of history. I feel very exposed. Its sweatting slightly. Let's go back and look at when there have been, say a minimum of six prime ministers within ten years How many occasions do you think that's happened since Robert Walpole in seventeen twenty one? I don't think it's happened very often, but I know around the time of the Napoleonic Wars, I know that actually U even around the time of ueen An, the late Stuarts, the Gory So that was when the parties were forming and you got quite a lot of disturbance and unsettled governance then. But we can't compare disenfranchised electorate where just a couple of rotten boroughs very rich guys dictated who was going to be the prime Minister with today's quagmire. I don't think it's comparably or I have done a deeper dive into the history. Well, I have done a deeper dive into it. let's start off. I mean I'll just go through the initial ones because they're not as you say, they're not holy comparable. but in the seventeen fifties you had six prime Ministers in ten years,ough wanted two of them were repeats And then in the early eighteen hundreds you had again six in the eighteen oh eighteen oh four to eighteen twelve. you had William Pitt, Henry Addington, again, William Pitt, William Grenville, William Cameredidge, Bentick, Spencer Percival. Then moving forward a bit from eighteen twenty seven you had Lord Liverpool, George Canning, Frederick Robertson, who He was Frederick Roberts. He had another n, Charles Lord Cant Was he Kning, I don't know. The Duke of Wellington and Gay Um Lord Melbourne, Duke of Wellington again and Robert Peel. So there were seven there Then you move forward to the eighteen sixties And you had Lord Stanley, Palmeron, Lord John Russell, Lord Stanley again, Disraeli and Gladstone. So again, six there. So you then go to seven prrime mininisters between eighteen eighty five and nineteen oh two. Gladstone Salisbury, Gladstone, Salisbury, Gladstone, Rosebury, Salisbury. Now you can argue, well, are they really seven different ones if you've got repeats, but it was seven different terms of office And then the last one Wh there were six was from nineteen twenty two to the early nineteen thirties, where you had Lloyd George, Bonel Lw, Baldwin, Ramsseay MacDonald, Baldwin, Ramsey MacDonald. So what we are experiencing now is different in the sense that you've had seven different prime mininisters. That is different. I grant you that. I mean, it's not unusual. if you look at parliamentary democracies in Europe Italy had a lot of this and we used to ridicule for it, of course. Belgium has had a lot of this over the years. Netherlands not quite so much, most other countries, not quite so much. But it is it's a facet to parliamentary democracy. If a Prime Minister loses the confidence either of his own party or the House of Commons That's what happens in a parliamentary democracy. I agree It is what happens, but are Parliamentary democracy, our first pass of the post system, was always famous and was, I think, lauded for the stable governments, not everyone agreed with it, but the stable governments it threw up. just to go back to two of those examples when there was particular friction. For example, in the wake of World War I, in the very dislocated nineteen twenties, I think it's understandable that you had a certain degree of political dislocation. You just had the Enfranchisement Act, partial enfranchisement of women, all of men were enfranchised. you're going to get repercussions from a change that big, especially in the wake of the Great War. If you go back to the Lord Liverpool era, the Napoleonic wars prior to that, when you're at war, you're always going to get serious electoral turbulence The point is here, where is the war? I know we've got a war with Russia, and that does contribute, by the way. I do think the cost of living, the anemic economic conditions, the feeling of malaise serves and plays into this. But I think, and it's not a coincidence that we're talking about Kist Stammer resigning over the summer looking down the barrel of the tenth anniversary of Brexit, which by the way, isn't a war. it was a self inflicted, I believe wound. And one of the reasons I believe that is because the polling suggested that prior to the Bloomberg speech was it twenty thirteen or twenty fourteen that David Cameron first floated the idea of an in or out from the EU. Only two percent of the population placed that as one of the main electoral issues that they cared about. two percent of the population in. And now if you poll people, well over sixty percent have a calcified Brexit or remainer attitude That is tribalism that we injected into the veins of our political discourse I agree with you to an extent because I remember writing at the time when I was doing speeches around different conservative organisations around the country, say between two thousand five and twenty twelve. And every single speech I gave, you could be guaranteed that the questions session after the speech would be dominated by questions about Europe. at every single event, and I probably did in that period, maybe, I don't know, between fifty and one hundred different events So it was always an issue that was more relevant to Conservative partarty members than it was to the wider electorate And when polling companies did polls of the wider electorate Europe never featured in the top ten issues that people were concerned about So you're right that it was made an issue by David Cameron mainly because of party management, and he decided that the way to cauterise the wound of Europe was to have a referendum. Now again, we can I mean, I don't remember feeling particularly strongly at the time that there should be a referendum. I thought there should have been one over the Lisbon Treaty Um whenever that was because I think that was making a constitutional change I don't remember arguing for a referendum at the time. I understood why he did it But he did it because he thought it was inevitable that he would win it Now what a mistake that was and he will forever be associated with that Brexit referendum So I think you're right that the Brexit referendum. triggered off the political uncertainty that we've experienced over the last ten years I think it's stretching it a bit blame the resignation of Kia Starmer on Brexit. I think you can blame Brexit for the resignation of Theresa May, in part Boris Johnson, but there are other issues afoot there U I mean, I'm not even sure we need to talk about Liz Truss in this context. It's been something in the background. But I think I think the resignation of Kist Ama can be laid I mean if Brexit has any impact on the resignation of K Star, I would say it's probably about five percent. I think what Brexit unleashed was a tribalism, was a black or a white, a yes or a no, pitting individuals, families, politicians against each other. And I think that has had a long term legacy. And I think we can argueill Low's come. I agree with you. But I also think that it has had an impact on our economy And I know that Brexit has never agree with that and I know that There's endless arguments. Of course it the impact of ye the impact Of course. Of course it's had an impact on the economy. There have been some negative impacts on the economy, and there have been some positive impacts on the economy. Michael Gove wrote a brilliant piece the other day about some of the positive things, which I now can't remember what he wrote. But there's that book seventy five Brexit Benefits. It hasn't I know you think it's been all one way traffic all relentlessly negative But that's simply not the case So I mean, even I would probably concede that it's had a slightly negative effect in terms if you just judge it in terms of GDP, but it hasn't been the economic disaster that was forecast by people like you in advance of it. Again, I think that I would counter that with it depends what statistics you pull from. There's a reason why Rachel Reeves and Kirdahmer who are right now in charge of the economy are frantically peddaling towards Europe. There's a reason why West Streeting said when he was considering throwing his hat in the ring that actually we need to rel look our relationship with Europe. And I think what's interesting is the fudge that Andy Burnham has served over the question of Europe. I don't think this generation of politicians is going to take us back into Europe, but I think they're all cognizant of the damage that it's done. For Andy Burnham, he's ended up being a winner because of it. I would argue the other thing is, if we're talking about the politics of place That too has been driven by Brexit narrative where it's globalism, . e remainers, bourgeois, Islington, etcetera versus those people who are more rooted and their identity is more rooted in where they live, The politics of everywhere versus the politics of nowhere. And again, Andy Burnham is the winner from that. Let's also and I should have got the details here, but there was a poll that the observer did which they clearly wanted to publish this Sunday to prove that there's so many people that want to go back into the EU But the results of that poll did not fit their narrative And I think it was something like fifty two percent of people do not want the whole EU argument reopened again or it I can't remember what the exact question was, but all of the results went counter to the narrative that there is a clear majority of people wanting another referendum to go back in Now I think if you did hold another referendum right now, you may well get that kind of result. I mean, it would be can you imagine the campaign it would be? I it would be awful U So I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think Andy Burnham will go down that road. But if West Streeting becomes Chancellor of the Exchequer, there is absolutely no doubt and I suspect there will have been discussions between him and Andy Burnham about this as to what West Streeting would want to do. I mean I don't think he would and he's made very clear that he would maybe want to have some sort of new arrangement with the EU. And in theory, I've got no great objection to that, as long as we're not rule takers and as long as we don't have to pay billions of pounds in. I'm quite happy to extend a free trade agreement But I think if he if they suddenly had a policy Oh effectively rejoining the single market even if it wasn't described as that. Well, that will be manner from heaven for Nigel Farage I don't think that the country' ready to go back to war with the EU over a new deal or a reentry because it was too scarring, it was too time consuming, it was too costly on every level in and we're still seeing it play out today. I repeat, that's why we ended up by the way with Dahmer because he was the safety candidate, don't you remember? Oh, Boris and the charisma and the risk You know, management and process. And so we got the technocrat first in Rishi, that didn't work and then in Kirdamma. Ag, direct products of the Brexit calamity. Now I'm going to give you a couple of resignation speeches and you're going to place them for us. o? I can't do an accent and you know I love doing an accent, but I can't do an accent When I returned to this country a month ago, I hope that my health had been sufficiently restored to enable me to carry out my an effectively Yes, very good. giveive me the year. teeen fifty seven I chose that one because a lot of people are saying that this bailout, this baleful war that America has chosen to fight and now basically has lost in the contract that it's hammering out with Iran is being compared all the time at the moment with Suez Canal and our defeat in five thousand six fifty seven. Okay, here's another one for you At the same time in this country, we've been pushing forward a vast programme of investment in infrastructure and skills and technology, the biggest for a century, because if I have one insight into human beings, it is that genius and talent and enthusiasm and imagination evenly distributed throughout the population. Oh my God. well, you could have picked a better section of whichever one that was Ian give you more? I can give you a bit more if. on a little bit more. I need a bit more of a clue. The opportunity is not evenly distributed That's why we must keep leveling up unleashing the potential of every part of the United Kingdom If we can do that in this country, we will be the most prosperous in Europe Cose that. Yeah, I think it must be Boris is V us y july twenty twenty. twowo out of two excellent carry on. Very good. Okay I knew you'd enjoy this Okay, wait to set. let me get one from c. H had you not read that second bit, I might have said Aley or Baldwood There quite a lot resign over Health. I couldn't find much for Harold Wilson. This was the sum tot of Harold Wilson, who I think resigned twice, didn't he? I have not waed you've just told me who it is I know, because I don't expect to be able to guess it from Hm is. I have not waed this decision and it is a revocablevocable I Rphic I love the way we hand all these words And that was Wilson In the last podcast, there were three occasions when I wanted to pick you up on words like that. and I thought, well no, I just can't. I'm an autoodact Are Is that rightself? Yeah, I am. Right. hereere we are. Next quote. Are you ready Above all, it was a privilege to serve. and yes, I love the job, not for its prestige, its titles, its ceremony, which I do not love at all No I love the job for its potential to make this country I love fairer more tolerant, more green more democratic, more prosperous and more just Freely Greater Britain. That's quite difficult because again, that's quite generic, isn't it? I'm thinking it it's one of it's either Thesa May Liz Truss or Rishy Sunak No The green thing is a bit the green thing does throw a bit because I think it Brexit more prominently in recent times and it is quite a recent leader. I'll give you a clue we've mentioned them in this pod frowned Yeah, Brian. twenty ten. Okay, now here's a real slam dunk for you at the end. to conclude mercifully There is time and hope. If we combine patience and courage, all deterrents will improve and gain authority during the next ten years. byy that time. The deterrent may well reach its acne and reap its final reward. The day may dawn when fair play, love for one's fellow men, respect for justice and freedom will enable tormented generations to march forth, serene and triumphant from the hideous epoch we have to dwell. Meanwhile, never flinch Never worry. Never despair. Never in the field of human conflict. Yeah, that was that was a pretty easy one to be fair It was. That was Churchill in the fifties fif. his last speech to Parliament. And you didn't include Maggie. I did include Maggie. I did, but I thought you were getting quite cocky. And I thought actually, I don't want you to get them allright. So that was really mean of me But I will give you chararacteristically Yeah here we are It's been a tremendous privilege to serve this country's Prime Minister. Wonderfully happy years. And I'm immensely grateful to the staff who have supported me so well And now also say a word of thanks to all the people who sent so many letters still arriving and for all the flowers See, I think you could do a bloody good Margaret Thatcher impression. I could do quite a good. No, that was sort of halfway there Thank you I rev you, I'll take that as a compliment Well indeed. Bright, let's go to a break In case we get timed out in, because I know you want to do it, shouldould they stay or should they go Re Burnham's pututative cabinet, but there are a few questions. May I flag up a couple? This has been pressing from last week BBC News West countountry residents urgeed to only fly World Cup flags at home. You highlighted that last week the Green Party were telling people they couldn't hang up flags Bristol on lamp posts This is a response to that, saying I think Ian needs to correct himself after his comments regarding Council's cancelling Hang of the flag The councils have only asked people not to hang them from lamp posts and other public property. I don't remember this happening in any other World Cup So why should it happen in this one? He is right. I did look up the ar. sorry. exact. How am I wrong there? Because you took umbrage at people not being allowed to hang up flags on lampposts. Yeah. and they're not allowed to. So how was I wrong? It's not unusual to not be allowed to hang things on pieces of public property. The highway No council has ever stipulated that before Why would they do it now? Are you sure? Are you speaking with great authority in your big man voice No, I'm speaking in I know what I'm talking about, voice. Well the highway can findays it's an offence to stick things on structures on a highway without the consent of the highway authority. So are you telling me that everything that's hung up has be consent of the highway I not. But I've never heard all I'm saying is I've never heard of a council actually spelling that out before in the way that this council did because they're a green Lfty council who hate the England flag end of story tribal in bit tribal? Yeah Anyway, did you notice, by the way that Nigel Farow as you mentioned, he's been calling for a general election. He wrote a big essay today. What paper was it published? I can't remember it must have been the telegraph or something like that And he said, o, look how all the parties gang up against us in these by elections, like bottom lit was seriously wobbling. Call me and my reform candidates. The idea that the whole of Britain is trying to block reform To an extent, that is what happened, by the way last week. I just got asked to write an article for the I Newspaper on Niigl Farage in the Gal election and what he is in a circle of thinking. And I'm thinking why they asked me do this? I don't know what is in a circle of thinking. Anyway, I've said I can't do it because I'm on holiday. I lost so much money by this fucking thing being happening when I'm not at work. I think you can do it. Of course you can do it. You'd probably write better because you've got downtime and time to think. No, I actually do I am trying even though Highlights of my week have been going to the tip twice because we've been mucking out the garage ready for your triumphant arrival on Saturday at our barbecue where we can basically put a lot of the rubbish that sutering the rest of the house. So I've been doing that and I've been recording my audioobook. but I'm finding all of this quite restful and I don't want the only work related thing I'm doing is this podcast, which I also don't bring up particularly as work So I don't want to have to sit for two or three hours because I would have to do a lot of research for that subject and talk to a lot of people. I just don't want to do it. It's probably a good decision. I think if I was your counselor or your cognitive therapist, I'd say, you know, there's nothing like a. By do I need one Well we can come to that on Saturday. Apparently Dan is going to come to your barbecue. Well I feel very honoured. Well you should feel honoured because I've sat really awkwardly at weddings next to an empty place because Dan just hasn't come at the last minute and it makes me die my very quintessentially English etiquette orientated childhood baked into my inner DNA. I cannot get. He will have a lot in common with John because John is very much like that. and doesn't like to go to any social occasions that I organise. and often pulls out at the last minute, leaving me to have to explain in a slightly embarrassed way So I get that. It's the idea that somehow you're responsible for your spouse's manners. and I've always found that incredibly challenging. The other thing that I find challenging is People are then so thrilled because I've disappeared off the camera. I'll come back in a minute. People are so thrilled because Dan's appeared. And I'm like, why aren't you thrilled that I appear every single time? You know someomehow, why am I not good enough? Why does my husband who never bothers, who doesn't send you a Christmas present, who wouldn't know one end of au tub of sellotape from another end and has never stuck a danb on an envelope Why does he get special performance when he arrives? And I don't. And I find that really hurtful and annoying. And yes, by the way, Ian, it is a bit gendered. Yeah, but I have full sympathy with what you've just said. Good. I'm glad you have sympathy because it's really painful and really galling. So you can be pleased to see Dan at the weekend, but pleased to be more pleased to see me. I'm always pleased to see you Anyway we'll have a full report on what happened at the Barbecue on next Monday's episode. That's assuming that you and I still talking. Yeah, remember, well, we'll do the admin offir, but I'm going on a cruise so we have to record it early, but you won't have a hangover because you don't drink. When are you going on the cruise? On the Monday onn the twentyh. just this. Yes, it have been a nightmare Yes, I've tried to get them to move the travel date for Laudi and they wouldn't and couldn't. And so but we'll discuss that anorm You want to do who's in and who's out in the cabinet. I'm going to be out of the pod soon if I go cruising Cool Coreory, if he's actually got this far listening to the podcast, will now be playing a bit of the clash Should I stay or should I go do Let's start off Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy He was standing outside. He was one of the Aaracheks in the Star administration There you are. I said that so you could have a chance to correct me. And I think that was brave of him And maybe he believes the writing's on the wall anyway, and I'm not sure he will I'm not sure he will still be justustice Secretary at the end of all of this. He certainly won't be Dputy Prime Minister and I would imagine that he won't be in the cabinet Um, I I' got no particular reason for saying that, but I think if Andy Berlin wants to bring say ten or eleven of his own people into the cabinet while having a bit of continuity I think he can probably lose the services of David Lamy. Rachel Reeves, I just think his toast. I think she'll be gone completely. I don't think she'll have another job. I think they'll get rid of her She's politically ted deaf and has been found to be wanting and I agree she's out. Evette Cooper is harder to call. aggree. I think that is harder to call. Again, I would say that she doesn't really bring an awful lot. If she stays, I suspect she would get a more junior role, but I doubt whether she would want to do that. So I think he may offer her something which she will find that she needs to turn down I think if you're the new prrime Mister, you need a foreign secretary that has a bit of experience. I mean, I wouldn't rule out Kir Stama being the new foreign secretary U I think it's I think he may feel, I think it depends on how really personally humiliated he feels by Andy Berham I could see that happening, but There are also only saying that informed you're saying that informed on Rishi Sunak reemploying David Cameron in that role. No, I'm not. I think the one bit of Kirst Stahmer's premiership, which you could say on balance was positive was his record in foreign affairs. So it's possible that that might happen I'm not sure that Andy Berham will kind of want the competition Be there's also rumours, by the way, that Kir Aarma will stand down as an MP almost immediately after he finishes being Prime Minister like Tony Blair did. Again, I've got no insights as to whether that's likely or not. So Evet Cooper, I would say out of the foreign office. Shibana Mahmouood, I think will stay at the home office. She'll certainly stay at. P MacFadden, I think will stay in the government possibly stay at working pensions because no one else wants a job Darren Jones is an interesting one because there have been rumours that he might be the starmer candidate to avoid a coronation, stand against Andy Burnham If he's persuaded to do that. He's a fool and I don't believe Darren Jones is a fool. So I think he will get another job posossibly in the sort of middle ranks. I don't think you won't be Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister that is certain What about John Healley, the freshly resigned Defence seecretary. I think he's a very safe pair of hands and he's distanced himself from Stala put him back at defence Okay, very possibly that will happen. We've put West Streeting already in as Chancellor. who will take over as well, hang on a minute, Douglas Alexander Douglas Alexander and Andy Bernam were in cabinet together, so I think it all depends on what their personal relationship is like. I don't think the government loses a huge amount if Douglas Alexander is moved. If you want to show a sign that you're a new broom and promote people from the twenty four intake And I mean, there aren't that many in Scotland, but enough to choose from I think that's probably where he will go So u And again people like, then you get into the sort of middle ranks of the cabinet, Bridget Phillipson, Peter Kyle, Liz Kell.'s not there. She's the one I was holding out for. She really matters to me Bridget Phillips. She's the one this that I don't thinky C her. I don't think Andy Burnham knows that to be fair I think Bridget Phillipson has done enough to warrant staying, whether it'll be in that position, don't know He can't change every single cabinet minister. I mean, that I think would lead to a bit of chaos and they keep saying we won't have the toory chaos so they're doing a pretty good job in emulating it. So I think some of them like her will stay. James Marot Health, I think is probably on the danger list Steave Reid very close ally of Kir Stara. I think he's on the danger list. Peter Kyle, who I really rate I think that he's on the danger list because he's said a few disobliiging things about Anti Burnnham in the past Liz Kendall Well, she came out very strongly for Kir because they've pushed through this anti. think I think she's toast. Lisa Nandy will definitely get a promotion because she's been very upfront in supporting Andy Burnham. Hillary Ben, safe pair of hands, nice guy, but again wouldn't I don't think Anddy Berlin would lose a lot of sleep over getting rid of Hillary Benn So there's quite a few positions Johnny Reynolds, the chief whip. He certainly won't be in that position But he could come back in another position in the cabinet And then of course, he'll bring in Louise Haig because she was his campaign manager in Makerfield. Angela Rayna, I think will make a return. quite sure what job he'd give to her possibly deputy Prime Minister again I mean is it Lucy Powell? Who's the leader? Lucy Powell, I think she will come back in. She'll come back What about your friend Jackie? She's skills minister at the moment. She might even get a better job. He'll want to keep her running the lords, won't he as well? I would have thought I've got note while she's not running the laws. Angela Smith does that I know, but you know what I mean? She's a big hand. Well again, I mean, he's served in cabinet with Jackie, so I don't I mean, I've got no inside knowledge on this. I don't know that they've ever been particularly close. I mean I remember on the podcast we used to joke about his wonderful eyelashes, but I mean I don't remember Jackie saying anything particularly disobliiging about him Um Who knows you say that he's not the sort of individual that one is hugely disoblliiging about because up until Manchester, he was a bit nare n't it mean he tried to be leadver a few times and everyone was like, goosh, really, Andy? backack in your box boy. He's a bit sort of hail feellllow, well met, isn't he? I mean, I don't think he's somebody that goes out of their way to make enemies. I think he likes to be liked. He's a people pleaser. Nothing wrong with that. I would class both of us in that category as well. So I'm not going to criticise someone else. I mean, who wants to be hated? You're a bit of an odd character if you really don't give a shit about who likes you or not Um, As Pime Minister You can't can't be a good prime Minister without smashing a few eggs. And It'll be I think the formation of his cabinet is going to tell us How good he is at doing that sort of thing as to who he is willing and able to offend. There'll be a lot of people that want that will think Andy Burnham owes them something for getting him into this position But whether he's in a position to repay all those debts, I'm not so sure It's a nightmare job. It's extraordinary just how many people want it. and from reading through those old speeches, how many people are broken by losing it Almost always the tears at the podium. The one I didn't read out was David Cameron's of course, where again he had that emotional crack in his voice, the one time when you can be human and inject the human into politics, by the way, when it's too late. Yeah. I mean, you also didn't mention the Theeresa May one because she really did break down at the end of it, didn't she And look, it's you were right, what you said at the beginning, When you become Prime Minister, you know that it's in all likelihood going to end in tears. You're either going to lose an election. Actually, here's a good quiz question for you Who is the last prime Mister to win an election and then lose office at an election last Prime Minister to win an election and then lose lose they didn't win their constituency seat as an. No, no, no, no, l they lost the next election because most prime ministers in recent memory have resigned for all sorts of different reasons but they haven't been kicked out So like Tony Blair won an election resesigned not Bown because Brown Brown never won the election. He was coronated U Major was coronated but went on to win his first election. He won his first election, but then he lost the next one. so Major. No no, he doesn't count because he became Prime Minister by not winning an election So in other words, somebody who stayed for one somebody Edward Heath. Yeah, Edward Heath, He's the last one Matthew Horbert told me that E listenant Do you know, I was thinking of Starmer just final thoughts today and absolutely in a very conventional sort of two point two way crediting Vic and his wonderful beautiful children, you know, tears, etcetera. The teenage kids must be like, shhit having more of Dadorang. That's a bummer. I expect a teenager on a Dadorang. I thought it was unfortunate that the teenage kids weren't there with a mother Because Gordon Brown, he left Downing Street with his kids very young children walking with him and Sarah. And I thought that was a lovely touch and maybe they'll do that the day that he leaves, maybe they will appear because of course he's really kept them hidden all of this time very successfully And to be fair, I think they're quite significant exam agagers and this is exam season. They've probably got bigger fish to fry than their dad's own political psychodrama, to be honest. He's yesterday's man. they're getting on with their own futures. But just quickly to compare Starmer with that, you know, I can go back to my bountiful and beautiful family, Edward Heath, of course Famously single, Lovedest Yacht He had no family to go back to and he sat there like a sort of sulking schoolboy scouting at Margaret Thatcher for what was it the next two decades. He would have actually benefited, I feel, from a husband. I mean, a wife. I mean somebody I think it is important that you have somebody effectively can support you in really difficult times like this. I mean, I can remember I mean, it's not I'm not comparing myself to this, but when I lost the election in North Norfolk Had I been on my own I would have found that very difficult. I mean, I remember the Kight of the Count holding it all together I made the speech of my life was a concession speech and then got in the car afterwards to go to the effectively the wake with my party workers And I just sat there Howowling my eyes out And John just sat there driving and said absolutely nothing because there was nothing he could say but just the fact that he was there was really important Just quickly on a personal notes, I know we've timed out and I haven't got to the questions that I had flagged, but Do you think your partner loves you more in your hour of despair or your hour of success. because I'm absolutely certain that Dan finds me more bearable when I'm broken when I'm bountiful. U I'm not sure I know the answer to that question I mean, we John is not somebody who expresses emotions very easily or very often Um So I honestly don't know the answer to that question. I know that if I am successful in something, pleased, but he doesn't feel the need to share it It's like I'm sure when I have my book launch my autobiography, I doubt whether he'll come. Yes, you are very lovable Billian, but I think perhaps in your more crestfallen moments. and obviously I've not seen you on your knees, Darl. You've been incredibly successful. Penty of men have. I know you You there's something quite buish about you when you're a bit broken. And I definitely when I go back to the weirdly the best time in my marriage, the most loving time was when I was having loads of being a sort of quQueen Anne, having loads of miscarriages and dead babies and stuff, Dan kind of I think felt my pain and he felt perhaps more seen by me because my need for him was greater But I do think it's interesting. My little brother said in the wake of him being elected as an MSP or people love success. I've had our five hundred messages or whatever I'm actually not sure that everybody does love a successful person. I think sometimes people are more lovable in the hour of need Certainly Kist Dama was his most lovable today. that's not difficult is it? I don't think I would use that word to describe him today. I mean, I thought it was a typical Kirst arma appearance in a way, apart from the slight emotion at the end. I thought otherwise I mean he claimed credit for a lot of things, but there was no mention, obviously, of the things that he got completely wrong, of which there were many I mean, I have no hesitation in saying that I do think He's one of the worst prrime mininisters this country has had I would put him slightly above Liz Tuss s probably on a par with Theereresa May, and that's not lavishing him with any praise at all. He's right down He's right down in the bottom quartile of prime mininisters Yeah But again, that's totally only perspective. I go back to the fact that tomorrow is a very significant anniversary and for me the vandals. will go down in history as individuals. Do you think Kill Starich was a better prime Minister than David Cameron I think he did less damage. I think he said today he's left the country stronger and fairer, and I don't think that could be said of Boris Johnson's legacy. It certainly couldn't be said of David Cameron's legacy. I think it could. I mean it depends on how you define a legacy, doesn't it? Because I think there were many things that David Cameron did that were actually very good. I thought he was a good prime Minister. and we can argue the toss about whether he should have done the Brexit referendum or not But on the day he resigned as Pime Minister Britain was a better country than the day he came into office. And I think that has to be the litmus test. And I don't think Britain is a better country now than when Kiristama came into office I said I would argue The exact opposite that given what was facing us down the barrel courtesy of his cavalier hubris, David Cameron left us with a legacy and with more importantly a future that was going to be extraordinarily difficult. It was literally like he sent us out to sea on choppy waters and then he got off the boat, hopped into a lifeboat, inflated his vest and off we went, whistling L did you whistling Just got another email from Al Jazeera English. Would I be do a thirty minute interview with them tomorrow? on what's happened today Sadly, the answer is no. Right. I enjoy doing that. gives you s. J prove, just to prove that I don't say yes to the opening of an embleope Right, we have to go because I've got to go to take another load to the dump with John You've got to go intense to your family flock And we will see you again towards the end of the week unless something momentous happens in the meantime. But I've enjoyed this podcast. have you It has been fun. yeah, I do love you very much. It's been a joy. goodbye. by the way, we will do lots of questions on the End of Week podcast. So if you want to email us, you can do so whereere pololiticsmeetshistory at gllobal dot com or leave a question on the whereere Politics Meets History Instagram feeed. goodbye. This has been a global production