The Future of American Power

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Find out how much you can save today at thezebra dot comot Savings will vary, not all will save What's the future of the American lefte? What happens when Donald Trump departs the stage? There's a lot of discussion about it and we frequently talk about it on the podcast. But I'm going to talk about it now with someone who really has thought it through and knows his stuff on this, partly because he was a member of the Obama administration. He knows how Democrats can win and can govern But also he thinks a lot about the future of the party and the way it's got to appeal to Americans. Welcome to Americast with Ben Rhodes ast Americaast from BBC News. You hear that J? I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it. This is a big cover up, and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump Rrangeman syndrome. have For you, turn the volume up I'm delighted to say I'm now in a room with Ben Rhodes and it really makes a difference, doesn't it? Because Ive talk to you a dozen times down the line. You talk a lot to the British press, don't you and you've done it for years We should start off by saying then, it's a real pleasure to have you face to face. In the fles, not in the fl Upstairs in my closet so that my kids don't walk in. Exactly. And we should then remind people why we talk to you so often. So under Obama, we're going back a bit now, back in the Obama administration. I can remember J just when Obama came to power, and it was obvious that you were going to have a big role in the White House and you did have a role. and you had a very fancy didn't you? It allowed you to do various things. and I think that's going to be an important part of our conversation. But you were Dputy national seecurity addvisor? Yes. Yeah. Okay That focuses you ones the White House under Obama. Since then You've done a range of things. you speak a lot about the future of America. In other words, when you finished that job for Obama, you didn't go off and retire and go and do other things and give up on the idea of America and American politics. That's important as well, isn't it And you've written this book called All We Say, which is a book essentially of speeches, but it's a bit more about than that. and we're going to get to that as well. But really crucially, as well you're a podcaster. I'm a podcaster. And that really matters, doesn't it? Because you're still trying to make the case for the broad left Yeah in American life. Yeah, no, I you know, it's interesting because I write books I write Nework Times, but the podcast partots of the world You know, all these different things I'm doing in this era that we live in are all fundamentally interconnected because it's basically just about trying to kind of hold the line in very dark times trying to Create a kind of space that is a bit of a community for people to share ideas on the center to the left about foreign policy and politics and also be trying to imagine what's on the other side of all this,? And so You kind of have to show up everywheres, you know in politics and writing and podcasting, and that's what I've been doing. Which is one of the things Democrats didn't do They got wrong really in the run up to Donald Trump's second term isn't it It is. I mean, you know, we through the podcast company, you know, I'm pods say of the world, we made pods of America. and we're kind of lonely post of progressive media in the United States. you know, the right wing built huge media platforms quite deliberately in the same way that You know, we saw Viictorund in Hungary or you know, Putin obviously kind of captured the media there's a lack of an effort to understand that you need to kind of create these media platforms and create these spaces for different voices. that you kind of can't just count on your capacity to win the argument and and legacy media. And also like the the media we do is also mobilization. L we have a dedicated effort to help people to involunteer and contribute to political campaigns. It's trying to create an ecosystem that people who want to do something because of how they feel about what's happening in America they can plug into it. How do you stop it being there saafe and So Flooding and a bit Sure right as well because that was the criticism, wasn't it last time round. So people are saying, Hey, where's this left wing equivalent of all these buzzy things happening in in the digital space on the right. And what some people said, Well, it's really difficult on the left because you've got toa be careful about the language you use. Y. You've got to be careful about all sorts of things. And famously, of course, Kamla Harris wouldn't go on some podcasts She's worried about it etceta. Is that fixed now, do you think No, I don't think it's fixed. And it's a great question. and I think there's several components to it. I mean, first of all you know, if you look at the podcasts that are successful on the right Most of them didn't start out as political podcasts, right? Like Joe Rogan was a comedian and a ultimate fighting championship commentator who got political, right? You know, pololitics was downstream of culture to use a phrase. And the other point is that, you know, we were political in what we set up But the whole idea was to talk about politics like normal people do, you know, to not create a barrier to entry by using a lot of jargon or acronyms to use humor I think one of the problems in the Trump decade is people present on the left as angry and kind of grim. and my experience of politics you know, including with the Obama campaign is if you have some humor to it Number one, that can help cut a strong man down to size, but it's also inviting. You know, you want to be a part of something that is fun and a bit joyful And then I think the other problem that Democratic politicians have that is connected to this point about you know, the origin of politics being downstream from culture is that when they do go on podcasts You know, they have these debates that go well, now we must go and podcasts, you know And they go on and they sound like politicians You know, so they go on the podcast Joe Rogan or whoever it is And they're using the same talking points that they would use in an interview with CNN And the whole point is that the way media is evolving is people want to see you authentically, like what are you interested in? Like, you know, actually, whatever your views of his politics are Zooma Mum, Donny understands this at If he's going on a sports bodcast, he's going to show up to talk about sports And then we'll get to politics. you know, likeike you need to kind of meet people where they are in these kind of new and you might occasionally screw. Aain you saw that with Mand Daniich is before he waslected there in New York, He went on a podcast. I can't remember the exact circstances. but I remember people saying o, he shouldn't have gone on there because he said something. I think it was possibly about Israel. He's gone too far he' said this, he said that. That's not the modern way, it That's not the modern politics? No, and I think people people give you a lot of space to screw up. They prefer to feel like you're an authentic person. I mean, I'll be critical of my own party here. you know, like a A Chuck Schumer just presents as a politician. and He may not make a mistake But he also won't connect because of that. you know? I mean, actually it was funny working with this book about speeches like, thinking about communications of recent Democratic politicians, you know, Joe Biden and Kamal Harris both use this line constantly that they're here to build an economy from the bottom up to the middle out, you know Well What does that mean? you know, like that doesn't connect with people. I mean, and actually I think in this day and age, particularly with such saturation of information and media People want to know who the person is and you have to be willing to say something wrong We have to be willing to have an opinion that people might like vigorously disagree with, but at least they know that you stand for something, even if it's something that they disagree with you about. I mean, Mamdani on Israel was interesting to me is that Even if you agreed with them or disagreed, The fact that he's willing to take all the grief he took was like, well, maybe this guy will actually like to lower my prices, you know, because he's willing to be criticized about things. And in a way Trump is the ultimate model of that. I mean, I don't like any of the things that just about any of things that he was trying to do, but Because he was willing to say things that seemed out of bounds, I think it made people think, well, maybe he's different, you know. What does that tell us then about the choices that the party has to make running up to twenty twenty eight I think first of all, we're already seeing it a bit in twenty twenty six and that there are these politicians that Democrats keep waiting you know, the more established Democrats I think keep waiting for them to implode like a Grand Platinner in Maine or We've done a whole podcast episode Grand Platinner f. You you know what? like gravity is's not pulling him down like because people feel like, well, we know who this guy is and And we think he's authentic. And so maybe we think he'll actually do things at the other should sa saye for anyone who didn't hear ourast episode. Number one is still available. you can abouts do it. Number two, he's got the nomination as the Democratic nominee to be the Senate candidate. It's aenate seat. The Democrats are desperate to win this time round. And they've picked what is? he's an oyster farmer, he's a former soldier and marine rough and tough. that's the kind of positive side of it, but it's also got quite a background or all sorts of misogynous stuff online. So it's a risk. It was always going to be a risk. I' not saying that's the ideal, but I think that again, people want someone who doesn't present like other politicians They want the Democratic Party to show that it gets that People believe it became out of touch, it became too complacent, it became too committed to kind of defending established ways of doing things at a time when people like that certainly became resistant to generational change So when I look at twenty twenty eight, I think who is first of all I feel adamantly that it needs to be a younger person, you know that it needs to be someone who can communicate in the kind of spaces that we're talking about and that it needs to be someone who doesn't in any way suggest that they want to kind of go back to some way of doing things before Trump, but is rather telling a story about how we can do things differently. You see, you know, and again, I'm not picking any one person, but to take one example John Ossoff, the Senator from Georgia. Yeah, who we've also talked a bit about in America. So I wouldn't be surprised if there's more talk about him running for president because You know, he's telling a different story. He's connecting dots for people. He's you know, Democrats have had all these, you know, debates about Do we talk about democracy or do we talk about kitchen table issues? you know Well also blows apart that, you know dichotomy. He's like, these is the same thing if you have an oligarchy and a corrupt system that only serves a few people Well, that's the reason why you can't afford your health care. Like he tells one story about what's happening. um in the country that explains both why Things aren't getting better on things like cost of living But also makes you believe that we can make them better if we make certain changes to how government itself works. It's not showing up with a ten pointint policy plan. And if you look at Alexander of Caze Cortez, I think we'd have an uphill battle to be president. So she is the left wing progressive left Congress womoman. People aren't quite sure whether she's going stand or not. You convinced she will. I'm not sure she will either. I think she'll test the waters and see if her message can travel beyond New York City But I think what people should take from her no matter what is There's a joyful and fearless nature to what she does. And these things are really important. Fearlessness is important because of what Trump depends upon is the idea that, you know, Things can't change.'re just this is the way they are. and there are all these kind of powerful forces and all this money that will crush people that try to move things in a different direction. She doesn't look afraid of those things I'm in a guy who can't run h is the Pope But he got this when when Trump attacked the pope. I thought the most interesting thing is When he went out the next day, said, I'm not afraid of this administration And that's something that was clearly lost on all these law firms and universities and media companies that have kind of folded in front of Trump The other thing I like about AOC is She has a smile on her face. And I think Democratic politics The last decade has been very grim. Kind of very angry And and frankly that doesn't attract people. There's also anger isn't there though, in the broader left. You think of Luigi Mangion who's accused of that terrible murder in New York of an insurance boss and this kind of sense among a lot of people on the left who sort of say, Oh well deserve what was coming to him and all the unpleasant things. said about Charlie Kirk when he was assassinated And indeed people on the left who say who don't believe or pretend not to believe that there was a genuine assassination attempt at least once against Donald Trump, There's a kind of nastiness there that bigger risk is it that the left becomes as nasty as much of the right has been in the recent There's a risk, but I think that's the trap that the right is setting. L that's what they want you know, they they and frankly, actually oftentimes they're the ones elevating that content, right? Like Republican politicians and media personalities are quite good It's finding kind of the angriest, craziest thing that people are saying on the left and responding to it to make it a conflict. And frankly, that's not a place where the left wins in my view, because I think you need to do two things, like one You need to attract people, like I was on the Aait Obama campaign. someome people may remember That was a lot of fun. likeike people wanted to be a part of it. They wanted to volunteer. They wanted to knock on doors with their friends, you know, they wanted to be part of a cultural movement that was attractive But the other thing is you have to be able to do and Barack Obama, you know F from perfect, but he did this very well. is you need to persuade and you don't persuade people by lecturing them. You know, Obama didn't show up and say You're a racist. And you must come out with your hands up and acknowledge it and acknowledge, you know, white supremacy, and then maybe we can make progress. He would say This country is so great that we've been able to make progress before. And you know here's the whole history of progress throughout America. And join us in this next chapter. And he was a patriotic appeal And look, I've been very critical of America. you followed my commentary particularly on foreign policy, but If you want to bring people along You have to open a door for them to come in. It's such an important point, that isn't it Obama. gave the impression, I don't know how it really was, but it gave the impression that he really liked ordinary Americans. So even when he gave that speech that it was greatly lambasted, wasn't he where he talked about people in small towns tankchering after their guns and people seized on that and said, Oh, we doesn't like the small dun. Actually he was able to get past that, wasn't he? Because it did seem as if he liked his fellow Americans and the risk we talk about it quite a lot on the pod now. the risk amongst some modern Democrats is that they don't really seem to like people who live in West Virginia or South Dakota or something Yeah, I mean Obama was it was actually really interesting for this book. I went back and wrote about the race speech he gave in two thousand eight. This is when There were clips of his pastor Jeremiy Wright. that went viral online. Now, now now. not God bless America. Goddamn America. that's in the Bible for killing innocent people. Goddamn America for treating us citizens as less than humans. Goddam States government has failed the vast majority of our citizens of African desents. You, attacking America, saying it's a racist country. and he did a couple things in there that were really interesting to relive now. The first is He defended Reverend Wright by essentially saying, lookook, he's a complicated guy. He's done some wonderful things and he's said some terrible things. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me He strengthens My faith offfficiated my wedding and baptized my children. Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He conted. And you talked about his white grandmother who raised him. sameame thing This woman who loved me, but she said things that make me cringe I can no more disown him than I can disown my white grandmother A woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me A woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world But a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who pass her by on the street and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe. But actually it was a speech against cancel culture before that was even a thing. It an extraordinary speech. I remember seeing it in Philadelphia I think in Philadelphia.ah Just to re emphasize. so this guy, the Reverend Wright had really potentially ditched the entire Obama campaign. You must have really ye I mean, it was a big moment because all this material suddenly came out. It was Obama's pastor, this extraordinary moment where Obama made the decision himself, didn't he? too make this speech And as you say, to talk about his own family. in a way that was just so relatable. Yeah, and totally related to the point you were just making because so he makes the decision to give this speech, which really the whole campaign is hanging on. Be we were sinking like a stone in the poles And we prepare a draft and it comes back and it's track changes, a few paragraphs in black and then about nine pages in red track changes and then a few paragraphs in black. Like he stay up all night writing the speech himself I don't know why didn't accept the track changes. I think we wanted to show us. look what I did. The red track changes for anyone who's over a certain age. you can alter a document and you see the changes. And the point about the argument he made is first of all, you know, I mentioned what he said about his pastor and his grandmother' saying like, It's actually what's missing our politics now. Like look around, none of us is perfect. We all have people in our family, we disagree with b things We don't have to just see the worst in people. We can see what we love in people and we can see what makes us share an identity in this country then he talked about black structural inequality in the United States. But then he talked about the white working class. and he said, these are people who aren't particularly privileged by their race. Most working and middle class white Americans don't feel that they've been particularly privileged by their race Their experience is the immigrant experience As far as they're concerned No one handed them anything. Theyve built it from scratch They've worked hard all their lives Many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pensions dumped after a lifetime of labor They're anxious about their futures And they feel their dreams slipping away and in an era of stagnant wages and global competition opppportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game in which your dreams come at my expense And he was able, again, to your point about what the left getting into these traps to say like actually instead of kind of condemning these people, I want to They're us too. I want to put myself in their shoes and see how things look from their perspective. And I may not even agree with all their views But we're never going to build a multiracial coalition If we don't take their concerns seriously. So when they are told bus their children to a school across town when they hear an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed when They're told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced Resentment. builds over time Like the anger within the black community, these resentments aren't always expressed in polite company But they have helped shape the political landscape for at least a generation Ager overw And I think because he had a genuine He did have a genuine affection. I mean, he, you know, you coveverred that campaign. The reason he could give a speech like that wasn't just because of his family, it was also because He spent a year just traveling around Iowa which is an all white state pretty much meeting with people in their living rooms and knocking on their doors and enjoying being with them and kind of modeling that Hey, actually, like we have a shared identity in this country whether we're black or white Our concerns are pretty similar And right now, I think we've been in a period where It has suited Trump to Pople only see the things that they hate in one polarization benefits Trump and obviously social media makes polarization easier. Here's a challenge though I read that speech. So that speech is one of the speeches you have in your book and It is when you read it again partarticularly the line about his grandmother to loved him but would say to him things about how she was frightened of black men and walked on the other side of the street and things like that that he says in his speech made me cringe.'s right. But that's all part of us. When I read that, reread it in your book, I thought, you know, I'm not sure there are many democratic politicians now get away with saying these kinds of things black or white, actually, because we've become you say it's speech against cancel culture. Well, kind of the cancel culture One, there's a lot about Obama reading those speeches where you think You know, there's an intake of breath, you think, goodness, is you really saying that? I can't imagine a Democrat saying that now being allowed to Well, I'd say two things. I mean, the first thing it's interesting Because he said that, this is a woman that he loved as much as anybody in the world who had these fears U when he later says Hey, white working class people Like his grandmother don't like to hear their concerns about crime be dismissed as racism He's entered that doorway through a personal place, right? Like I was raised by a white working class woman I think today, again, I think people are so afraid of making a mistake or You know, you have to be willing actually, I think in this day and age You know Obama used to say something to us too You have to show that there are things you're willing to lose over in order to win I think that probably have to go through pretty brutal controversies and show that you're willing to kind of stand by something that you said that may be uncomfortable becausecause if you're not I think Kamala Harris, you know fell into this very careful politician and maybe didn't make a huge mistake. because she was afraid of making a mistake She also didn't really say anything that connected that much with people either. So I think you have to be willing to put yourself out there, be personal be authentic because I think people today, they don't just want to know, you know what you want to do. They want to know like why do you want to do it? Like what in your background compels you to want to run for this office. Democrats like to skip ahead to the ten point plan or You know, this agenda, that agenda Actually I think Americans are more interested in whyy do you want to do these things? Why should I trust that you'll do these things? that you understand what I'm going through? And if you're not willing to kind of mayaybe even step in it or offend people from time to time go through the controversy then People see as a typical politician and the message we keep getting from American voters is they don't want a typical politician. And that's the thing that comes out from your book. I'm proud to be on the back cover of it because it's It's not a political book. It's not the Ben Rhodes view of the world It's a view of America. from a set of speeches and your take on those speeches. And I wanted to ask you why you selected the ones you did because I knew the Obama speech very well and there's a Trump one there as well, which you remember because it's more recent. but actually most of the others I'd never really come across at all. It wasn't in sense the obvious ones, I think give the Ronald Reagan speech. The one you chose was a particular one Yeah, well, because it's not an anthology. It's not meant to be the greatest speeches. It's meant to tell the story of not just American history. But essentially the arguments Americans have been having about what this country is and what it means to be American From the founding, Benjamin Franklin is the first one But I went to different perspectives. You know, we're going to have abolitionist voices. We're going to have famous people like Abraham Lincoln and people you've never heard of like the suuffragette andna Dickinson. and showing that the course of this argument about what the country is. So the Reagan speech I chose is the one in which he coined the phrase evil emmpire to talk about the Soviet Union. And I suppose that's the point. It's a wider speech. So this is what I found so fascinating about Justin is it's not his greatest. you know, I love the The D day one about the B boys up Pona Hook, for instance, or the Challenger disaster But what's so fascinating to me about that is that it's famous for him calling the Soviet Unedieval emmpire To ignore the facts of history and the aggressive impulses of an evil empire, to simply call the arms race a giant misunderstanding. and thereby remove yourself from the struggle between right and wrong and good and evil But most of the speech is not about foreign policy at all It's a speech to Christian Evangelicals, the National Association of Christian Evangelicals And he talks a lot about the centrality of Christian faith to American identity And he kind of goes through what would be seen as kind of a pretty right wing social agenda, like banning abortion and prayer in school. But in a much folksier geniial way than we would here today But he's talking about how America is a nation founded in Christian faith. and that's one of the things that makes us exceptional as Americans You know, from his perspective, I probably wouldn't sh share his perspective entirely on this. But then when he gets to the Soviet Union the contrast he's drawing. is not one between capitalism and communism. Its said We are people that believe in God and they're people who believe in the rule of man And the reason they're an evil empire is because don't believe in anything higher than the rule of the state. During my first press conference as president, in answer to a direct question I pointed out that as good Marxist leninists The Soviet leaders have openly and publicly declared that the only morality they recognize is that which will further their cause. which is world revolution I think I should point out I was only quoting Lennon Their guiding spirit who said in nineteen twenty that they repudiate all morality that proceeds from supernatural ideas. That's their name for religion or ideas that are outside class conceptions Morality is entirely subordinate. to the interests of class war and everything is moral that is necessary for the annihilation of the old exploiting social order and for uniting the proletariat And actually he works in in a quite clever way kind of secular bureaucrats in America too. you know, there's I don't think Reagan would have liked Doge, but it kind of foreshadows in some way this kind of Republican Um, you know comeless fear of the administrative state. And so what you're seeing is a kind of coherent effffort by Reagan to use words to build this coalition puts a tent over Christian evangelicals, small government conservatives who don't trust the state and national security Hwks who don't like the Soviet Union That's the coalition that dominated American politics for most of my life talking about Reagan raaises something that I've seen raise and I'm not quite sure the extent to which I think this may or may not be true, but it's a fascinating idea that one of the reasons why American politics And in a sense, society has broken down to the extent that it has in recent years, is that post Cold War, There wasn't anything outside America exactly fight against. you run along with this thesis? You think it's true Yeah. And I felt this very strongly in during the Reagan speech because Reagan constructs this coalition that is very focused on the albert enemy of the Soviet Union, right? And that can again, unite The small government people who hate communism, the Christian evangelicals who want a go based political system and then these haawks who hate the Soviet Union, will once the external enemy is gone All this kind of energy that has been built up have turns inwards suddenly the enemy is kind of within if you remember the Clinton years like there's a kind of relentless and vicious political combat about pretty small things. And I think part of it was like the redirection of that energy. One of the characters in my book, even though I don't do full speech by him is Pat Buchannon. Yeah. And so Pat Byuch Cannan comes along in nineteen ninety two right after the end of the Cold War And we should we should explain why he comes aong way. He's in the Republican Party, the Republican Party the great sort of country club place and suddenly Pat Buuchanon is saying what to them. Pat Buchan, who's been a political operative and a political commentator C song and he challenges George H W. Bush in nineteen ninety two for the presidential nomination And his basic argument is You know, we beat the Soviet Union. But this globalization that we've created, in part, you know, is our Ct strategy has essentially hurt the white working class. So today, we call for a new patriotism. where Americans begin to put the needs of Americans first for a new nationalism Where in every negotiation, be it arms control or trade, the American side seeks advantage and victory for the United States And the people of this country need to recapture our capital city of Washington from lobbyists and registered agents of foreign powers who are hired to look out for everybody and everything Except the national interest of the United States. It is time. So here's Pat Buch Kennan's platform America first, literally, that was a slogan for his campaign isolationism, like we shouldn't bear all these burdens abroad We should cancel these free trade agreements that are emptying out, hollowing out working class communities in this country We should build a wall on the southern border. to keep immigrants out We need to fight culture wars in this country to kind of restore Christianity is like the foundation of American society This is all Trump like, you know almost twenty years before Trump. and he's only able to do that because the Soviet enemy' gone. The thing they kind of held together u, these disparate groups is gone and Buchan saying, no, this should be the core of the Republican Party When we say we will put America first, We mean also that our Judeo Christian values are going to be preserved And our Western heritage is going to be handed down to future generations and not dumped onto some landfill called multiculturalism And actually, you know, again, it was interesting to relive and I have speeches by FDR and I go through the Kennedy years in this. you know FDR to John F. Kennedy to Ronald Reagan Yes,' swings But there's they're telling the same story at core. likeike Reagans is more conservative, more Christian Kennedy' is more progressive and open to social change and about the future FDR, I think, is the origin of the American superpower We kind of had an agreed upon story. And I think after the Cold War We've not agreed on what the story America needs a story, right? I mean, you guys have Britain is anchored in a much deeper identity, you know There's all this history. Well, American because we're We're not a fixed identity, right? We were thirteen states. now we're fifty We were one particular kind of people the beginning. Well, now look at America today. It looks nothing like it did at the beginning We have no official religion The story is kind of what holds the identity together And I think in the Cold War, we had a very clear common story Part of the reason we're so disoriented is that since the end of the Cold War, I don't think we've had one It would be remiss of me to ask you a bit about Bang up to date things, given your role in the Obama administration you' dealt a lot with Iran Is there the remotest chance do you think that at the end of this that there is a better agreement D by with Iran than the one that Obama eventually did I don't think so. first of all, just because whatever agreement is reached, I don't think was worth the cost of this war already in terms of life billions of dollars tens and tens of billions of dollars shortages around the world, including here. Um But then second you know, the agreement that they're negotiating right now Um it lacks It's not just a substance because the substance of the agreement, if they get to one which is a question because you know in their memorandum of understanding The nuclear issues are puned forward So Iran is going to get Billions and billions of dollars upfront just opened the Strait of Hormuz, which is a new development Even if they get to nuclear restrictions, they're not eliminating that program. They've acknowledged that They're not bringing in ballistic missiles and support for proxy groups, which they wanted. That's off the table now So essentially they're trying to get to a point where there's some restrictions on the nuclear program and some inspections and they ship the stockpile out Those were all the things that were in ard deal But what they're lacking is The kind of force of international and law Our deal was with the permanentified members of the Security Council, the United Kingdom France Russia, China and Germany and the EU in on the deal too, the Innational Aomic aggency doing all these intrusive inspections. This is like Jared Kushner and Steve Wittkoff in Pakistan Qataris and a few other countries like making up text as they go. I don't trust the durability of anything that comes out of this. you know, the Iranians have seen America pull out of a deal I don't think that they believe that they're signing up to anything that is, you know, we had a UN Security Council set of resolutions behind this deal. you know Americans don't like multilateralals until they need it. You need it to kind of codify and build support for these things But I think Justin the most likely outcome too is that they never get to a nuclear deal. that frankly they won't end the war The Iranians need money, so they're going to get a bunch of money from the sanctions relief that's on the front end. They're allowed to sell oil on the front end without making any nuclear concessions The Iranans also know that they can probably toll the Strait of Hormuz in some way You know some insurance rate that they're going to charge certain countries. So they're getting money And America just wantce that straight open, they feel burned. I think Trump realizes this is a mistake If I'm Iran, like why am I making a bunch of nuclear concessions in sixty days? You know? I hope they do. But even if they do, I think That's kind of status qu anti for Two years. Does it tell a wider story though, as well, just finally aboutout I was going to say about American power, but actually maybe about the power of any large country and previously militarily significant country. You think of Russia and Ukraine, you think of China when it looks at Taiwan now technicalities of warfare. have changed so much. exerting power For any future American president, is' going to be a really difficult thing to do. I think that that's a really important point and there are two components of that I think are worth pulling out. Lne is just on the military aspect alone. Like we had aircraft carrier strike groups in the region. We had all of this military hardware. brought to bear to the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq And they shut down in the Strait of Farmz of speedbats, mines, and Chazad drones Shazad drones mattered more than aircraft carriers to the outcome of the war. Full stop somethingomething that you can make for tens of thousands of dollars in kind of a garage, right And so the idea that we can project power because we have these massive systems Um, well, we just, I think lost a war to people firing Sizad drumes and symbolistic missiles. and recognizing that they could weaponize the global economy through the strait. I think the second thing that Trump is massively underappreciated, obviously Is it America's power in the world I mean you're always, when you're a hegemon, you're always a bit like the wizard of Oz you're behind the curtain and making people feel like you're much more powerful than you are Aual power came from the alignment with a whole set of countries and institutions that we built Becauseuse actually if you look at the record of our wars We tend not to win them, right? Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, which I was there for, freely acknowledged putut that one on the list back to Vietnam Our actual strength has been that we had block of countries it was largely aligned with us in Europe, in Asia and often in other parts of the world. that we had these institutions that we set up that we could channel our power through. Trump is you know, not only disrupted and he's dismantling all of that threatening to invade Greenland undermined his ability to project power on Iran. Because who's going to want to go along with you to open up the Strait of Hormuz when you're like threatening to invade a European sovereign territory And so I mean, I don't think we can rebuild that. I think we have to build something new But I think the lesson is terrifing people and bombing people Maybe you'll get some very short term benefit But the long term cost is that this entire system that allowed America to be the wizard of Oz. and And frankly It's going to put a risk even things like the dollar as a reserve currency Yeah So given that, optimistic are you? I mean, in a sense it's a trite question, but it's a question that is raised by the book because yeah it's a book of incredible achievement really, isn't it? And it's a story, as you say, America needs a story, and it is a story, and it's a story that people admire and respect around the world Has the story ended No, and that's what gives me hope. I mean, I'm pretty dark about the present. That's one of the reasons I went in the past and I think we're in for a pretty bumpy ride the next know, two a half years with Trump. I think we're not at the end of his efforts to assert himself at home and abroad You know, when you go back into the past, I mean Churchill's famous quote about America doing the right thing after it's done everythingthing else, I'm paraphrasing It's kind of true in our history. you know If you look at the arc of American history, we go through some very disruptive times Um, And in part because of our ability to kind of tell a different story, like we have to refresh what this whole project is about tend to come out of those darker times in a better and more interesting place I mean, I think it's relevant to Brits too. you've been kind of casting about for a national identity since Brexit, right And you can get trapped in the present. like this is crazy. We're never going to get out of this. likeike what happened Um, well you kind of go back and look at the past you see, okay, well, here's how people work through this and here's Here's, you know, how people were dealing in this context in this book, like with slavery and with gilded age and rampant inequality and corruption and with segregation and all these ills And and they're never permanent. you know, And so I think We have to sometimes like get out of the present learn from the better aspects of our past and then kind of look beyond one of the things that can be very empowering I've been trying to tell Americans in traveling around the last month. Allow yourself to imagine beyond this Like we're so trapped in Trump's reality that like we have a hard time thinking beyond tomorrow, never mind the next election. Like Where would you actually like to go