More or Less
BBC Radio 4
Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?
SummaryIn this episode, the team investigates the nuances behind recent headlines claiming a two-year decline in UK healthy life expectancy. By speaking with actuaries and data experts, the hosts clarify that this figure is derived from subjective, self-reported survey data rather than clinical medical records. They explain that the decline is heavily influenced by how different generations perceive and report mental health, rather than an actual deterioration in physical health. The discussion highlights that while this statistic can be a useful, broad-brush measure of public wellbeing, it is often misleading if taken at face value. The episode also tackles the ballooning costs of the HS2 high-speed rail project, examining how initial estimates escalated from 32 billion to over 100 billion pounds due to poor early planning, complex democratic processes, and shifting contractual risks. Finally, the team looks at the economic reality behind temporary VAT cuts on summer attractions. Using historical evidence, they explain why such targeted tax breaks are rarely passed on to consumers as price reductions, suggesting that the benefits often remain with the businesses rather than the public.
Updated Jun 9, 2026
About This Episode
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?
A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?
And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.
Contributors: Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’ Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy Associates
Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon
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