More or Less
BBC Radio 4
The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
SummaryIn this episode, Tim Harford investigates the challenges of tracking a significant Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The discussion centers on why official reports often fail to capture the true scale of an epidemic, particularly when dealing with rare virus species in regions affected by conflict and limited infrastructure. Harford is joined by infectious disease epidemiologist Dr. Ruth McCabe, who explains the complexities of disease modeling. The conversation explores how researchers work backward from known mortality rates and previous outbreak data to estimate the actual number of infections. Dr. McCabe highlights the "known unknowns," such as the delay between infection and reporting, the difficulty of identifying undocumented cases, and the impact of cross-border travel on spread. By analyzing data from neighboring countries and past outbreaks, scientists can generate estimates that are crucial for determining the necessary humanitarian response, including hospital capacity, staffing needs, and resource allocation. Ultimately, the episode provides a fascinating look at how mathematical modeling helps experts navigate uncertainty during a rapidly evolving public health crisis, reminding listeners that data interpretation is as critical as the data collection itself.
Updated Jun 9, 2026
About This Episode
On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency.
Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one.
Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates.
Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Sound Mix: James Beard Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Editor: Richard Vadon
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