The Future of the Stalled Housing Bill

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This is The Daily President Trump has called it the most comprehensive and consequential housing legislation in the history of our country and a Congress controlled by his own party has now passed by overwhelming margins So, why is the president refusing to sign it Today, my colleague, Michael Gold, on the strange saga of a landmark housing bill It's Monday, july sixth Michael Gold always pleasure Happy to be here, Michael. thanks So over the next few days President Trump has to make a decision that on paper I think we can even argue objectively scenes Kind of like a no brain That's how I would view it. if I were a politician. So it seems very intuitive that the president would sign this housing bill Because housing, affordability is a major issue for Americans. It's something he talked about on the campaign trail when he was running in twenty twenty four And the midterm elections are in about four months. And it would be a very clear demonstration that the president cares about affordability, cares about addressing these cost of living concerns, which is something that Republicans are very eager to demonstrate But I think the fact that the president isn't signing this bill really exemplifies just how dysfunctional his relationship with Congress has become and how divergent his own interests are from Republicans in his party and from many of voters in the country Well, tell us the story of this housing bill, which we really haven't covered all that much on the show and how we got to this point where it has reached the presidents's Desk Sure. So I think anyone who has tried to buy a house, paid rent, looked for an apartment in the last few years can tell you, the country iss in the middle of a housing crisis. And it started in a lot of the big American cities, but it seems to have really spread across the country. And as both parties are campaigning in twenty twenty four Politicians across the political spectrum agree that they need to do something to address housing because people need a place to live and without a place to live. You know, their chances at all kinds of economic security basically evaporate. Right So The president takes office in january twenty twenty five, and He's not really saying much about housing. He has a handful of other priorities that he's addressing. In the background, members of Congress decide that they're going to try to do something about this, and they start working on their own housing legislation And that's kicking around for a while, but it involves kind of an interesting cast of characters. So in the Senate, you have Tim Scott of South Carolina. He's a Republican. He runs the Senate Banking Committee. And you have Elizabeth Warren, a progressive Democrat from Massachusetts. And they're working with their counterparts in the House on this, French Hill, who's kind of a mainstream conservative Republican from Arkansas and Maxine Waters, a little bit more to the left Perhaps not as far as Warren and she's from California. Yeah, this really is odd, bed fellows. Yeah, and look, this is how Congress is supposed to work. Lawmakers who have a common interest work together, they put party aside, and they start hammering out a deal. And so this is what's going on for most of last year. And at this point, the president's not really saying much about it. He's focused on the big beautiful bill. He's focused on immigration policy. This just isn't top of mind for him But as we round into twenty twenty six It's a midterm election year. And affordability is top of mind for the American voter. And it's shown in poll after poll that cost of living is the number one problem that voters have and it's an area where they're judging the president's success and something that they're going to vot on when it comes to the midterms. R, kind of becomes the by worord for the midterm Elections in general. Who's going to own affordability Absolutely, and Democrats really seize on this, they make it very clear this is going to be a major issue for them So coming into the start of the year, it's January and Congress makes clear that they really want to get a housing bill done. They've given it a name. They call it the twenty first century Road to Housing Act, which is supposed to represent the scope of their ambition here. They want to do something really big on housing that's really going to help a lot of people Well, what is in this bill? What is the scope of Congress's ambition for housing in the twenty first century. So Congress wants to address the housing crisis by basically boosting the supply of new homes, making it easier to build new homes, making it cheaper to build new homes. And they do this in a few ways Most notably, this bill would ease a number of federal regulations, things like environmental reviews, changing the rules for what's known as manufactured housing, which is cheaper to build than building a house, know in a lot starting from scratch That's why this is the factory built houses that get constructed off site, brought in and suddenly you have a home Exactly, yeah. They decided to change the regulations to make it cheaper to build those kinds of homes. They also chang some grant programs. They want to make it easier to refurbish old, aging properties. They want to make it easier for municipalities to turn maybe a vacant factory into housing, things like that And they offer a lot of economic incentives, whether through grants or other programs so that local governments would be encouraged to support new construction, maybe change some zoning rules, And on the consumer side, they make it easier for some consumers to get mortgages in the hopes this will help them be able to buy lower cost homes So it contains a raft of incentives to build more housing. cuts a bunch of red ta that can slow down the construction of housing and makes it in theory, more affordable to buy. those final housing units That's right, but there's also one more provision in here that Congress puts in, which is designed to address the president So around the time the details of this bill are getting worked out at the beginning of the year President Trump starts to talk about housing a bit more Another pillar of the American dream that has been under attack is home ownership. He seems to realize that with the midterms coming up, we want people to be able to buy a home. He needs to demonstrate that he's worried about this issue, which is so crucial for many Americans. We want to make it possible for every American to live that American dream in a beautiful home And it's really the one that they pick. It's going to be the apple of their eye. And he tells Congress that he wants to see a limit on the ability of big Wall Street investors to buy single family homes that he thinks should be going toward American people. We want homes for people, not for corporations. cororporations are doing just fine. And this is kind of a populist idea, but at its heart is the idea that homes for people to live in should be bought by people, they should be available to people. And there's concerns that having a lot of deep pocketed investors come in and buy hes is actually reducing supply for American people. And so the president signals that he thinks this is really important. And members of Congress hear him, and as they're working out the details of the bill, they put in restrictions on how much housing large investors can buy So this is looking like an all Systems go real momentum kind of dynamic. Congress wants this. The president seems to want it. seemes like this is headed for Passage Yes. And so this diverse group of people who we talked about earlier succeeds. And at the end of June, the Senate passes this housing bill eighty five to five. an incredible margin in a very closely divided partisan Congress They sent it over to the house The house quickly takes it up and they pass it in a similarly lopsided fashion And everyone is happy Everyone in Congress got this bill. Mike Johnson, French Hill I don't say this a lot. Elizabeth Warren, but today, I'm proud to be a member of the United States Senate. Tim Scott. This was a bipartisan bicameral issue to do. the work of the people. John Soon, who's the leader of the Senate. I look forward to getting this bill to the presresident's desask and delivering another major win the American people They are all thrilled and it looks like this bill is going to become a law Right, A real government, even in this era can work kind of moment Yeah, at a time when no one thinks the government can do this. You know, we haven't seen much bipartisan legislation. and everyone is really pleased that they can kind of pat themselves on the back, but also that they can show voters, look, we can come together and we can fix this issue that's really important to you. And they decide to plan a signing ceremony at the Capitol. The President's going to come, the speaker will be there, Senator John Thoone will be there. and everyone's going to stand on a stage and talk about how excited they are. And they want to pat themselves in the back, but they also want a photo opportunity. They want to get on CSPN, they want to get on Fox News and CNN. They want to be able to show American people, look at what we did for you, look at us coming together. Here's the footage that we can, you know have in our campaign ads and that we'll have circulating for the next several weeks. Right. So the Sing ceremony is scheduled for Wednesday, june twenty fourth, and preparations are underway. They're building a stage in the Capitol, They're telling the press that it's happening, They're making sure everybody is ready, making sure everybody's going to be there And then it all falls apart Howo Well, Michael, the day before the signing ceremony is supposed to happen, the Senate takes a vote that infuriates President Trump For the past few months, the Senate has been repeatedly voting on what's known as a warar powers resolution. And these are resolutions that direct the president to seek congressional approval for the military conflict in Iran, which he started without notifying Congress And these votes have been failing. Democrats keep bringing them, but they never make it. past the threshold to succeed The day before the signing ceremony, enough Republicans joined with Democrats to pass this resolution. And that's a major rebuke for the president. who at that very moment his administration is negotiating with Iran on a ceasefire and a deal that would end the war And so the president is furious because he feels like Congress is essentially tying one hand behind his back as he's trying to come up with a way to end this conflict and move forward. Right So the Iran war vote is Tuesday and the next morning is the signing ceremony for the housing bill. And I roll up to the hill and I walk past the stage being built. and as I'm walking through the capapitol Senator Johnson who's the Republican leader of the Senate. Maority leader. President, I ask unanimous consent. He is on the floor giving his morning floor speech. The Senate being a period of morning business with senators permitted to speak. And Speaker Mike Johnson and his leadership team Good morning, everybody. They're standing at a press conference talking about this bill and what it's going to do for the American people. A really important bill to lower housing cost we delivered for American families And everyone is gearing up for a big day. It's always a big day when the president comes the Capitol Right S suuddenly out of nowhere Hours before the signing ceremony is supposed to take place. The president goes on his social media platform true Social and says that he will not sign the housing bill He kills the ceremony And as Senators are speaking as meembers of the House Republican Congnce are speaking I'll take a few questions in the process of this press conference, President Trump announced that he is canceling the bill signing for the housing bill that you all were just talking about. They don't seem to be aware that the president has just killed what was going to be their big achievement of the day. Yeah,m My reaction is Oh jeez. The presresident, when we go through the details of the bill, he's going to understand that that it's a good product. At one point, a member of Congress walks up to the signing ceremony, looks around, doesn't seem to know where anyone is, and reporters have to tell her that the signing ceremony is not happening. And she leaves, and a bunch of reporters are still standing there, watching as this stage, which was supposed to be the platform for this major legislative achievement, this huge bipartisan breakthrough. is empty and workers start taking it apart. Piece by piece And we're all left reeling trying to figure out What's going on and what's going to happen next ' do it back With no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yup, even on weekends. It's pretty much all he talks about in a good way What's in your wallet? Terms apply. see capital one dot com slash bank guuy Capital onene NA. member FDIC Startup founders around the world are using Anthropics Clod to solve problems, build faster, and create things that have never existed before By getting to work with Anthropic, we've been able to help bring folks to a new era of software engineering. We are a very small startup. So Anthropy model actually changed everything about how we've worked together as a team. The very cool thing for us is that with each new model, new capabilities are unlocked To watch the full series, go to clad d. com slash problem solvers. That's cld d. com slash probleblem solvers Investing with Schwab is like spending a Saturday at a great farmer's market. You can fill your reusable tote with a bit of everything. Maybe you go for some free range self directed investing, or perhaps you pick up a few farm fresh trades willill you peruse. You can even get help from a dedicated advisor. That's full service wealth management. Mix, match, and change your mind whenever you want Because at Schwab, you can invest your way, no matter your goals or appetite for investing. Schwab has everything you need, all in one place. Visit schwab. com to learn more Michael, what's your understanding of why the president canceled this much anticipated signing ceremony and says he is not going to sign the bill Is this him basically just being soar over the war pers's resolution Well the War Powowererss resolution certainly doesn't help. But when the president announces in his social media posts that he's canceling the signing ceremony for the housing bill, he points to something else. He points to the Save America Act The Sfave America Act is the president's long sought election bill that comes out of his years of fixation on voter fraud and his debunked claims of voter fraud in American elections This bill would impose a national requirement that voters show identification of the polls. It would require that they provide proof of citizenship when they register to vote And it would severely restrict voting by mail, which is something that many Republican senators oppose, and is a major reason why Republicans have repeatedly told the presresident that they don't have the votes to pass this bill And so the bill is stalled in the Senate, but it seems like President Trump has realized that now he has some leverage. He has a housing bill that everyone wants to become a law. He has a signing ceremony that everyone wants to happen. And so when he makes his social media post, canceling the signing ceremony, he says he will not sign the housing bill until Congress passes the Sfe America Act, which he says he considers to be a national emergency. I mean, why Does the president insist on linking these two bills given political impracticality Oh the election bill ever passing is it actually the president imagining This hostage holding will work to get save America past or is something else going on? I think there is a part of the president that thinks that if he puts enough pressure, the Senate will find a way to do his bidding But I think the bigger issue here is that over the past few months, a lot of senators have become more independently minded And they started to push back against things that the president wants that they don't think meets their political interests And That's where the Iran warar powers vote that we talked about starts to come into the mix. Because that was a very high profile display of Republicans rejecting the presresident's foreign policy initiative And there have been a few other cases in the last few months where Republicans have said that they can't just bindally go along with the presresident's wishes and that they're going to push back against him. I think Save America for President Trump. represents the greatest pushback Because in his view, and he's said this before The only way for Republicans to win in the midterms is if they pass this law But Republicans in Congress are trying to focus on affordability. They want to talk about issues. They want to highlight these things that they can deliver for the American people. And that's where these paths kind of emerge Right. So in a sense Trump is punishing Republicans in Congress for not seeing the situation as he sees it, for diverging from his view of the best way to win in the midterermms, which is strategic, which is restricting voting in a way that could advantage Republicans. suggest and I'm curious if you agree with this proposition, Michael. is that Trump is saying to Republicans What really matters in these midterms is not policy achievements. It's not getting a big housing bill passed that would show Americans that the Republican Party cares about cost of living Instead what the party should prioritize, according to the president Yeah restrictions on voting that could help the party win. He's saying focus on working the election system, not on appealing to the hearts and minds of the voters I think that's a good way to frame it. You know, I covered the Trump campaign in twenty twenty four and there was a sense in which he was always much happier to be talking about these elections issues than talking about the economy, talking about affordability, talking about all these things that we now see are of top concern to voters And we've actually seen that again in the past few days. What are your plans for the housing bill, mr. President? Where when he's asked about this housing bill, which members of his party are calling a major victory. I don't know. I think it's so Unimportant comp by compared to the S of America He's dismissing it, saying it's of minor importance, suggesting that it won't actually fix the problem. It's a y. Somebody was' wonderful M To me, compared to the Save America act Just about everything is a big yawn. And so there's a way in which he seems to be leaving Republicans in Congress almost twisting in the wind when it comes to policy issues ahead of the midterm elections in November But yeah, just explaining, well what happens to Bill of this scale that's been passed by both chambers but that the president doesn't love and says he won't sign. The president could surprise everybody and sign this bill, whether quietly or with the quick signing ceremony of the White House Right now, that doesn't seem very likely, but with Trump, many things can change. But regardless of what President Trump does Under the Constitution Once the president gets a bill from Congress, a ten day clot starts to tick. And if he does nothing when Congress is in session, the bill becomes a law anyway. And the timeline for that ten day clock is the end of this week But there's no signing ceremony. There's no big moment for the cameras. There's no footage to go on cable news and across social media The bill get s them back to Congress and it becomes a law Hmm just kind of limps. into law on that tenth day Yeah, that's the idea But the other thing that the president could do is veto the bill Send it back to Congress. and dare Republicans who have been very hesitant to do anything to anger him too much to override his veto whichich would definitely be the first time that a presidential veto was overridden in this term. Yeah, And I think it would actually be a tough decision for a lot of Republicans, even though they supported this bill Because if we've been watching anything during this midterm cycle, it's that the president remembers people who have crossed them. And even though these guys really want this housing bill, I think they'd have to make a serious decision about whether to anger the president by rejecting his veto Well, let's assume for a moment that The likeliest path is that perhaps the president simply does Nothing and this becomes law without ceremony and What would that? outcome Me in for this bill and for the president's relationship with the Republican leadership in Congress Well, look, if this bill becomes a law, regardless of how it happens, this is still a major legislative victory It's been more than thirty years since Congress has passed major housing legislation. It would still be a major bipartisan victory. And Experts say that this might not fix the housing crisis right away, but it would go a long way toward starting to address a problem that affects millions of Americans. Right On the political end, I think that's a bit tricky you know We've seen in the last several months this rift open between the president and Republicans in the Senate, especially And they've been willing to buck his priorities. You know, we talked about the Iran war vote, but they also essentially made him kill this justice deepartment fund that was supposed to go to the victims of so called weaponization. They've started making noise about not thinking a lot of his nominees are fitting candidates for office. Like the Director of National intelligence. Like the director of National intntelligence, and to some extent, Todd Blanch, who Trump nominated his atttorney general And You're starting to see that these senators who up until this point had really not shown much of an independent streak are starting to get a bit louder about their concerns that their priorities and the presidents are diverging We're in the middle of aidterm election cyc And Republicans want to display unity They want to say the Pident, the House, and the Senate we' all on the same page and we're all fighting for the American people. And that signing ceremony was supposed to be a big way for them to demonstrate that they were doing that But I don't think Republicans are going to look kindly on the president taking away what would have been a major photo opportunity and a major media moment for them We always talk about how the president doesn't forget slights that members of Congress commit against him But I don't think that members of Congress would forget this slight against them Oh Micha Thank you very much Always great talking you, Michael We do it back. With no fees or minimums on checking accounts, it's no wonder the Capital One bank guy is so passionate about banking with Capital One. If he were here, he wouldn't just tell you about no fees or minimums. He'd also talk about how Capital One cafes are open seven days a week to assist with your banking needs. Yp, even on weekends. It's pretty much all he talks about in a good way What's in your wallet Terms apply, seeee capital onene dot com slash bank guuy Capital onene NA. member FDIC. Startup founders around the world are using Anthropics Clod to solve problems, build faster, and create things that have never existed before. B getting to work with Anthropic, we've been able to help bring folks to a new era of software engineering. We are a very small startup. So Anthropy model actually changed everything about how we've worked together as a team. The very cool thing for us is that with each new model, new capabilities are unlocked. To watch the full series, go to claudd d. com slash problem solvers. That's clad d. com slash probleblem solvers Self directed investing, trading, full service wealth management, automated investing, financial planning, thematic investing, retirement planning. Oh