Keir Starmer resigns. Andy Burnham prepares for power

Nigel Farage's Clacton by-election gamble

Jul 7, 202625 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts analyze Nigel Farage’s unexpected decision to resign as the Reform UK MP for Clacton-on-Sea to trigger a by-election. The panel explores this maneuver as a high-stakes gamble aimed at shifting the political narrative away from mounting scrutiny regarding his campaign funding and ties to crypto donors. By framing the by-election as a contest between himself and the political establishment, Farage attempts to use a fresh mandate to neutralize investigations into his financial disclosures. The hosts discuss the potential implications for Reform UK’s electoral strategy, noting that the party views this as an opportunity to test new campaign methods and bypass traditional Westminster rules. While the panel agrees that Farage will likely win the seat comfortably, they delve into the risks involved, including the possibility of a diminished reputation or future parliamentary sanctions that could trigger further by-elections. Furthermore, the episode examines how major parties like Labour are debating whether to contest the seat or avoid what they perceive as a vanity stunt. Ultimately, the discussion highlights Farage’s ability to dominate the news agenda and his defiant attempt to consolidate power within his own party.

Nigel Farage and Posh George: why it matters

Jul 6, 202627 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts examine a recent investigative report concerning Nigel Farage and his close associate, George Cottrell. The discussion centers on the significant, previously undisclosed benefits in kind that Farage received from Cottrell—a former UKIP staffer and convicted fraudster—to fund staff, security, and digital operations. The hosts analyze the intersection of Farage’s personal friendship with Cottrell and his professional political activities, questioning whether these financial arrangements should have been declared under parliamentary standards. While Farage maintains these were personal gifts between friends and provided at a time when he was not holding office, the hosts explore the potential implications of these revelations for his future in the House of Commons. The conversation also highlights how these disclosures affect the broader political landscape, particularly regarding the influx of large-scale funding from crypto-billionaires into the Reform party. Ultimately, the episode considers the growing scrutiny facing Farage and the challenge of maintaining his "anti-establishment" appeal while navigating the formal rules of Westminster, all while the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards begins the process of evaluating these complex financial ties.

Paranoia in the Labour Party: the Andy Burnham enigma

Jul 2, 202619 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, hosts Steven Swinford and Patrick Maguire explore the pervasive sense of paranoia and nervous anticipation currently gripping the Labour Party. With Andy Burnham at the center of a political transition, the hosts discuss how the uncertainty surrounding his upcoming cabinet appointments has created a vacuum of power. This "black box" environment has led to increasingly transactional behavior among MPs, many of whom are desperate to secure or retain their positions in the new administration. The conversation delves into the historical parallels of such transitions and examines the delicate dynamics regarding potential ministerial choices, including the scrutiny surrounding figures like David Miliband and Angela Rayner. The hosts also touch upon the broader concerns within the Parliamentary Labour Party, noting how Burnham’s specific focus and personnel decisions are already causing ripples of anxiety across different wings of the party. Ultimately, the episode highlights the current state of governmental paralysis as the party navigates a period defined by both a "long goodbye" to the outgoing regime and the tense wait for the new administration to take shape.

"You can't have more Milibands than women in top jobs" - Cain and Abel mark II

Jun 30, 202629 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts dive into the political maneuvering surrounding Andy Burnham’s transition into leadership and the intense speculation over his future cabinet appointments. A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the potential return of David Miliband to frontline politics, an idea that has sparked conversations about reviving the political dynamics of the New Labour era. The hosts analyze the complex interpersonal history between the Miliband brothers and evaluate how a potential cabinet seat for David would impact public perception and internal Labour Party cohesion. The panel also addresses growing concerns within the Parliamentary Labour Party regarding representation, specifically the optics of having more Milibands than women in senior government roles. Beyond appointments, the hosts examine Andy Burnham’s debut speech, contrasting his assertive and dynamic communication style with that of his predecessors. The discussion explores his ambitious devolution agenda and the establishment of a "Number 10 North," framing these moves as a deliberate attempt to shift power and rewire the economy. Ultimately, the episode captures a government in its infancy, navigating high stakes, internal power dynamics, and the challenge of turning ambitious long-term visions into immediate policy reality.

Andy Burnham builds a plane mid-flight as Starmer checks out

Jun 23, 202625 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts provide an in-depth analysis of the transition period following the collapse of Keir Starmer’s government. They describe the current situation as Andy Burnham attempts to build a government mid-flight, characterizing the process as an unprecedented and daunting task given the extremely tight three-and-a-half-week window. The discussion highlights the growing tension and instability within the Labour Party, noting that many MPs feel unsettled as they wait to see how Burnham will shape his cabinet. A major focal point is the intense behind-the-scenes competition for the role of Chancellor. The hosts weigh the candidacies of Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting, and Shabana Mahmood, examining the potential economic implications and political risks associated with each. Furthermore, the podcast explores friction over defense policy, as Starmer attempts to finalize a long-term investment plan before his departure—a move some allies of Burnham view as an overreach. With civil service access talks delayed until July 9th, the hosts discuss the challenges of ensuring government continuity while Burnham works to establish his own mandate and address the country's public finances.

Andy Burnham wins Makerfield: what happens now?

Jun 19, 202633 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, hosts Ed Vaizey, Steven Swinford, and Laura Spirit analyze the extraordinary by-election victory of Andy Burnham in Makerfield and its seismic impact on British politics. The panel discusses how Burnham successfully defied political gravity, running a campaign that effectively tapped into anti-establishment sentiment and broader dissatisfaction with Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership. The discussion explores the brewing tension within the Labour Party, with Starmer determined to resist a leadership transition and Burnham’s camp pushing for an orderly handover. The hosts examine the lack of clarity regarding Burnham’s specific policy agenda, particularly in terms of tax, welfare, and economic growth, while noting that markets remain anxious about his potential shift toward more radical fiscal policies. Additionally, the episode touches on the challenges facing Reform UK, whose strategy to outflank the establishment has been complicated by internal identity debates and recent electoral results. Ultimately, the episode provides an engaging breakdown of the power dynamics now defining Westminster, framing the next few weeks as a critical period of intense political maneuvering.

Ghostings and betrayals: Starmer's cabinet prepares for an Andy Burnham coup

Jun 16, 202628 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the political team from The Times and The Sunday Times analyzes the high-stakes atmosphere surrounding the upcoming Makerfield by-election. The hosts explore the growing speculation that this event could serve as a catalyst for a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer. They discuss the internal pressures facing the Prime Minister, including reports of cabinet unrest and the surprising revelation that some ministers have been ghosting him. The conversation shifts to Andy Burnham, viewed by many as the primary figure waiting in the wings. The hosts debate whether a coup is truly imminent or if Burnham is merely preparing for an inevitable contest. A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to the potential makeup of a future cabinet, with a particular focus on the role of Chancellor. The team breaks down the risks and strategic implications of various candidates, such as Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood, and Yvette Cooper, highlighting the complex balance of policy alignment and political maneuvering. The episode provides a comprehensive look at the fragile state of the Labour government and the volatile political dynamics currently shaping the party’s future.

A circular firing squad: the bitter war over defence spending

Jun 9, 202630 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts examine the internal turmoil surrounding the government's much-delayed defense investment plan. Despite a significant increase in funding, the process has been marred by bitter disagreements between the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, defense chiefs, and industry leaders. The discussion highlights how the Treasury and Ministry of Defence are at odds over the scale of cuts required elsewhere—such as in transport and healthcare—to finance the investment. The hosts analyze the broader political consequences, noting that this "circular firing squad" of internal disputes and delayed decision-making is severely undermining the Prime Minister’s authority. The second half of the episode shifts to the Makerfield by-election and the rising political profile of Andy Burnham. The hosts detail the confidence within Burnham’s team, noting his effort to balance a local campaign with a national leadership pitch. They explore the intense, underlying rivalry between Burnham and Keir Starmer, suggesting that the former’s ambition to reshape the Labour Party has created a volatile atmosphere. Ultimately, the hosts discuss the high-stakes gamble of a potential leadership challenge and the instability it poses for the current government.

The tragic death of Henry Nowak and a political reckoning

Jun 2, 202631 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, the hosts discuss two major stories dominating the current British political landscape. They begin by examining the tragic death of eighteen-year-old Henry Nowak, focusing on the immediate political fallout following the release of police bodycam footage. The hosts analyze the differing reactions from political leaders, specifically highlighting how Nigel Farage has utilized the event to champion a narrative of two-tier policing and social division. In contrast, they note the approach of Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, who attempted to shift the focus away from identity politics by emphasizing commonality. The discussion then shifts to the Makerfield by-election, exploring how candidates are navigating a highly charged environment where traditional campaigning methods are being replaced by more localized, digital-native strategies. Finally, the hosts delve into the recently released Mandelson files. They offer insights into the internal frustrations within the Labour government, the perceived lack of a clear political project under Keir Starmer, and the broader implications of these documents on the Prime Minister’s authority and the general state of current political discourse.

We’re all just normal people railing against politics

May 26, 202628 minSummary

In this episode of The State of It, hosts Laara Spirit and Patrick McGuire explore the current political landscape, focusing on the high-stakes Makerfield by-election. The discussion highlights the significant impact of the Andy Burnham factor, noting that both Labour and Reform supporters acknowledge his influence in the constituency. The hosts examine the emergence of the party Restore Britain, identifying it as a potent force that has successfully leveraged social media, particularly Facebook, to connect with voters. This development presents a fresh challenge for Reform, forcing them to refine their strategy to retain their base. Beyond the by-election, the episode shifts to the political maneuvering of Chancellor Rachel Reeves. The hosts discuss her recent policy shifts and efforts to signal stability and economic competence, which some speculate is a strategic attempt to secure her position in a future cabinet. The conversation also touches on the anxieties within the Labour Party regarding potential leadership transitions and the uncertainty surrounding future fiscal policies. Through a blend of on-the-ground reporting and political analysis, the episode captures the complex, rapidly shifting nature of contemporary British politics.