Challenges Facing the Incoming Prime Minister

In twenty sixteen, a twenty two year old known as Posh George was jailed in the US for wire fraud standing by his side when he was arrested was Nigel Farraage. Join me, Gabriel Pogan from The Sunday Times For a wild ride through the worlds of politics, crypto, and crime It's in our new podcast series, Post George, the crriminal behind Farraage Search for Post George the Times wherever you get your podcasts Q question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question And I accept that answer with good grace Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first That is why I will resign as leader of the Labor Party And when I leave the biggest job in the country. I shall spend more time on the most important job being the best husband I can to my fantastic wife Vick, who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad and being the best dad I can to my beautiful children, who are my pride and my joy Thank you very much Welcome to this emergency edition of the State of it, where we've just watched the Prime Minister stand in front of Downing Street and announce a timetable for his resignation. I think what's clear from this statement is that he didn't want to go, but he says he had no choice that his MPs had kind of made their judgment and quite a bit, which he didn't say explicitly was they had judged that he should not be Prime minister There was nothing in there about the multitude of mistakes that he's made, the U turns, the catastrophic decisions. There was a lot about his achievements. and in the end, he said they've made their judgment and they've cast out judgment. And we now stand here, Patrick, I think we're on the cusp of my eldest daughter is nine years old. This will be her sixth prime minister since she was born. Soince she's been on this earth, this brief time, six prrime ministers It's all a bit surreal, isn't it? Yeah. And is it the twenty third of June today or the twenty second, the tenth anniversary Give or take a day of the Brexit referendum. and a prime minister made by Brexit, Kir Starner is the latest victim of the political dysfunctionality that's followed. But you're right, Steve, that is the takeaway of lots of labour people who are filling up my WhatsApp right now is your takeaway There's no contrition Yes, there was He was dignified was Proably the sort of speech Andy Burnnams back has wanted to hear There was no blood on the walls. There was no vow to fight on But you're right, there was no contrition, there was no apology, there was no acknowledgement that He was anything but a hard wororking prrime Minister who constantly vindicated his own self assurance. and it's very, very veryy moving obviously to see a man who is always in control of his emotions be overcome by them at the end while talking to his family. and no human being could fail to have their heartstrings tugged by that. But I have to say reflecting some of the views of His critics and ind the people who've worked with him, they watched that and thought, well, this is partly the problem, you know This is all about you. It's not about party. it's not about how we've got here And You know, it sets up a a transition of power that I think will be infused with quite a lot of bad blood. You know, that group of people there with Kiram, lots of people Among them have been with him since the very start, willll be watching that and we' be watching what they think is a good and decent man brought low by people who Don't have a plan who aren't serious and who have forced him out Quicker than is in his interests, but also in their view quite sincerely national interests. let's start Patrick with the obvious question of where it went wrong for Stara. And you've done what I would say is a masterful piece on the Times's website right now, which looks in detail where it went wrong for some and how it went wrong. I mean, off the top of my head, I've always thought the biggest sin was Tonal. He came into office promising change and hope and a better life and was utterly miserable almost from the off, warning of pain to come. There were catastrophic decisions over welfare, catastrophic decisions over wind fuel payments. There were so many U turns we lost count There were so many different priorities, there so little preparation for government. We have listenated this many times on this podcast, Patrick, but we would love to hear your take on how did we get to a situation where a prime mininister that came in with a landslide majority became the most unpopular prime Mister in history? I think the long and short of its sef and if Some of the people who were with Kirst Arm in the street today were honest. And those are his close personal friends and closer staff So it's hardest for them to say, but if the cabinet certainly were honest and if the people who have served with Kist Aar in number ten and come out the other side were em powered or sufficiently disloyal or bitter to say this publicly, they would just put it very simply He wasn't up for it. up to it and nor was he up for it actually. He wasn't really equipped for the stuff of politics itself He had never really accepted that sometimes in the things about politics that he found infuriating the focus on people believed The existence of factionism in the Labour Party, not as an exercise in self indulgence the outworking of sincere, genuine and meaningful differences political and economic philosophy. He never really understood all of that. He thought as with So many other things in his life, he could sort of overcome that. by force of will and hard work and diligence And he thought and lots of his former staff and ministers will tell you this that being called to mediate on big policy disputes was a sign of failure, that he shouldn't be dragged into it. He hated that sort of thing. You know How do you think winter fuel happens? How do you think welfare gets to the point that it does? It's because He was someone who didn't really understand want to undertake the basic duties of political leadership. And you know, all the stuff you mentioned is true as well. you know the lack of preparation for government. That's because he outsourced that to Sue Grey, thinking he could separate it from the politics. lash from the Parliamentary Labour Party over immigration, welfare, Gaza, Winter fuel. That's because he outsourced the politics to Morgan McSweeny and Rachel Reeves in the Treasury Every single example R defends The latest thing that's come back to haunting What was his theory of where Britain should be the world, what his defense should look like? Well, he asked Gor Robbertson, Tony Blair's defense secretary, the former NATO S secary general. to commission that of any D didnn't find the money for it. He couldn't force Rachel Reeves to find the money for it. He couldn't take the currency decisions required to find the money for it. And Tob, you're right, Steve, is a crucial, crucial aspect in all of this This was a government. And this is a Prime Minister who would say one thing never quite substantiate it and then very quickly end up doing Another step He was constantly engaging in arguments tryrying to win arguments without ever really making them without ever doing the hard work And actually, you know, why did he win a landslide Let's be honest, you know, the public never really loved him. I think at some level they found him in off fencing in twenty twenty four, but they never formed a they really believed in him because what was there to to believe in This was not a Labour party that return to power as it did in ' ninety seven, having reth thoughtought Social democracy from first principles for a new age in the global economy and geopolitics. It was a party that In twenty twenty two discovered it was going to win by default then got into the game of risk aversion triangulation and clever positioning. And that was not a governing philosophy and so its proved. So look, let's look ahead to the next stage, Patrick. And look, politics is a brutal business and it's nowhere more brutal than in the intros we write. And just to explain to listeners what I mean by that, we go from writing intros which begin most of them with Kirstara X Y and Z and suddenly there's a shift of power and it becomes Andy Burnham thinks X Y and Z. it moves very, very quickly. And in this case, today it's moving even more quickly than a lot of people anticipated. We are now in a position where Andy Burnham will in all likelihood be Britain's next prime mininister in three and a half weeks W' teting, the former Health Secretary has folded in behind him. and that means it is odds on to be a coronation that he will walk straight into number ten. And let's just remember, this is a guy that has had barely any time to build a policy platform to work out who his key people are. and yet he will be in number ten in three and a half weeks time. So you now have ahead of us an extraordinarily consequential period of time where he has got to effectively scramble around to build a government, build a policy platform and have all of that done in time for the World Cup finals It's quite a tall order Yeah, we know Andy Burnham is offering a wholesale change in culture and presentation. And maybe Mbe You know, listening to Kir Stara there outline the achievements of his government. The legacy is not all bad. The problem is it's not the changeed Labour partarty he promised people in twenty twenty four. It's not what Morgan McSweeney would have liked to Labour government to have done, but it's good solid progressive stuff. So maybe Andy Byn will come in and say, actually, this is all right, this stuff. I'll just present it differently and people will like me and I'll acknowledge that there are big trade offs in this and people we're actually governing from the left. And maybe that will be enough That's certainly not what some of his back is on the left at the Labour Party wanting to do Big test now. it's not an entirely know it's a short timetable nomination se on the fourth, the ninth of July closeed on the sixteh, Dv Andy Bernon is the only candidate successfully nominated Bishbash Bos, he goes to the palace He is Prime Minister within nine weeks of having declared in Makerfield. You know, that's what I wrote the piece when Josh Simons resigned, You know, get this right. Andy Bernam will be Prime Minister in eight weeks, you know, nine weeks is a pretty good return on that initial and very risky investment. What we're about to learn though is whether that bad blood I spoke about earlier will manifest itself in an effort to stop burning. The Labour Party has two options, right? It can knowledge that this isn't how they wanted it to end that Any Boham is the only show in town two hundred, three hundred how many backers and Let's get it over with and we will try and influence Andy Burnhan and try and pull together because we've just seen what happens when we don't possibly go through this again? orr the alternative is that hardcore of people who variously think Kissed Am is hard done by, who think Andy Burnham is U, you know, a Charlatan and little more than you know, a uniclo menswear model as we read in this morning's Times Mm You know, they wanted a chain of change of leadership, but this is the wrong time and You know, they feel angry at some of Uy Berner's supporters and West Streeting for making this happen We're about to find out whether they are angry enough feel a principled enough objections to say, hang on, no, we are going to find a candidate And we're going to put them up Andy Berham will have to fight them Are there eighty one of those people at this point? And who is the candidate? Those are the two big questions. I don't think it's impossible But now this thing has a certain irresistible momentum to it. Maybe the Labour Party will regret it. There are lots of people who were in two thousand seven, who regret the Gordon Brown goddess coronation, but we appear to be living through a similar moment in labour history Before I switched to Wealthfront, my API was probably zero point one. Once I switched toitching. With the Wealthfront cash account, earn up to four point two percent APY on your cash. I can trust Wealthfront is taking care of me. Make your money earn more. Get started at wealthfront d. com cllients paid one thousand dollars for their testimonials reading and a conflict of interest. How comeome. point percent, sa AfPy as of juary thirtieth twenty six is representative variable and earned onunds sw to program bank.er point five percent newient boost for three months and up to one hundred fifty thousand dollars. Directposit one thousand dollars month fund an inv account for a point fivecent increase Cash account offered by Wealthfront broer LC member Fer IC in a In twenty sixteen, a twenty two year old known as Posh George was jailed in the US for wire fraud standing by his side when he was arrested wasas Nigel Farraage Join me, Gabriel Pogan from The Sunday Times For a wild ride through the worlds of politics, crypto and crime. It's in our new podcast series, Post George, the criminal behind Farage. Search for Post George the Times wherever you get your podcasts. The utterly surreal thing here is we don't even know who his chancellor would be. and that really matters. And there is a big raow within Team Burnham about whether Ed Milliband should be his Chancellor. So some people or particularly people who are Ed Milliband allies who are also Burnham supporters say that Ed Milliband is the guy that can deliver radical change. Look at what he's done at DesNes. lookook at all the kind of wind farms, the mass renewable energy. he is the person to implement the radical change the country needs Other people I'm talking to in Tam Burnham, and I'm sure you're having the same conversations, Patrick are saying, Well, look, and these biggest weaknesses fiscical credibility, they are economic credibility. And if you put Milliband in the place's Chancellor, that is going to feed into that criticism that this guy and it will essentially is what one Cabinetist was saying to me, it will unnerve the markets, the markets will move. They will be extremely concerned about the prospect of Miliband in a position of power. and it's not just That side of the things that's concerned. You're also hearing the similarar from Sharon Graham, the leader of the Un Union. She said that Milibab will be a newse round job creation. So that is a massive almighty vow that is going on at the moment over who should Berham's pick for Chancellor be. Exactly. And we are back into a situation where Andy Berhab is trying to balance his obligations to a series of audiences Yeah, you and I both look at this steam It's been a surreal month or so Andy Burnon because he's been thinking, okay, I need to find a message that appeals to The voters of Brynn and Billing and Orrele and Hindley and Ashton in Makerfield, I need to speak to the Labour membership, I need to speak to the Parliamentary Labour Party. I need to speak to their country and I need to speak to the markets As Prime Minister as leader in Waiting now, he's in the same position I remember having a conversation with the minister last week someone who'd been elevated to high office by Kirstar that wasn't particularly close to the Prime Minister and could see the writing was on the wall. rightight? They'd woken up, they smelled coffee, they knew Andy was going to be Prime Minister. And in that moment I knew they were texting me. T try and s out, to try and work out what they had signed up for But they weren't enthusiastic. you know, they were surrendering to the forces of political gravity. and one thing they said has stuck with me They were talking about themselves and their colleagues and saying, Well, if Sibana's chancellor half the Parliamentary Labour Party will be unhappy, Ed's Chancellor, half of the Parliamentary Labour Party will be unhappy and This moment of catharsis will very quickly sour. Yeah evv's happy Andy Burns back, or most people are happy Andy Burns back that Labour can win again, that K Stara might leave. But it's once you get beyond that moment of release and think, okay It's the morning after we've got to clean the kitchen and put this away and put all the tins away an at the astroayss and find out what we're having for breakfast when the sort of, you know, the headache hits, right? and that is big problem And so you know, you can pick A milliband, spook the markets, but consolidate what he did in Makefield, which was reite the progressive vote behind it. Shabaramou's not going to doit, but he could pick someone From the right of the Parliamentary Labour Party to a signal credibility to the markets right I know Pat Mcfadmon a Darren Jones. but in doing that your backers on the left say, well, what was the point of this? We expecting radical change. We thought this was a reset moment. orr you can take the path of least resistance and pick someone The Parliam led article F find the offensive and about Cooper by John Healing which was not going to spot the markets. You know there's a story in one of the papers this morning about how bond traders would like to see about Cupperus chancellor because they trustion, they think she's sensful But there'd be a lot of people out there saying What's the point? What was the point of that? What you're trying to do It's really, really difficult and the variance of views within teeam Burnon does remind you that this The hopey changey Cappy clappy, you know, Northern Soul, keep the faith mood of the campaign necessarily can't Yeah, enjoy in the form we saw at Stubshaw Cross Labour Club forever because they're about to hit Very, very crunch series of serious trade offffs. I agree with all that Patrry, but just, let's finish. I think one of the things looking at this is he could be a number ten very shortly and he wanted time to prepare. He wanted time to gather his ideas and thoughts for government and his team. It looks like he's probably not going to get And as we learned from Starmmer and as we learned from actually successive prrime ministers, first impressions count with voters, right? And the gloss can come off incredibly quickly in number ten. Remember Rishy Sunak, he came into number ten. He was actually a pretty popular politician, much more so than the Conservative Party brand. He tanked within a matter of weeks. Starm tank within a matter of weeks. So the spotlight is totally unforgiving in number ten. And if Andy Burnham isn't ready, if he doesn't have a a positive policy agenda to match the vibes, that gloth could come off very quickly and that's the challenge for him here. Yeah, it is and That's that, as you say, is the ultimate risk that Labour has that moment of athtis. it has its release. You know, you've got a lot of angry people who feel let down, betrayed, ill treated by Kir Stara. And a lot of people though who have doubts about Andy Burnnam, you know, They just want this to go away and for something better to take its place But they've already shown these labour MPs how impatient they are, how fickle they are and how unwilling they are to wear difficult decisions. Now it may be that with careful political management that weays A bit of human a touch of human Speaking you to the Parliamentary Labour Party with in a degree of sincerity and with a different political message, Andy Burnham can lead them through those decisions But if he can't and he doesn't And he is also mugged by reality and geopolitics. We could be back here in six to twelve months In another leadership crisis, and labour MPs asking themselves Wh, o why, o why? notot do we get rid of kissed armor Why or why are we here again? You know, what can anything make this better Is this? Isas this problem with K ararma? orr is it something intrinsic to the Labour Party or more terrifyingly? politics itself. Big questions, I'd say The role of decisive political leadership is on the price in all of this and charismatic leadership But An Buno has a big, big task ahead to show that he can be decisive and remain charismatic. when he is under the spotlight, not in a working men's club in Wiggan, but placel he disdains so much Westminster I was going to wrap up at that point, Patrick, but you remind me of another critical thing that is going to dominate the discussion in the days ahead. It is the question of Andy Burnham's legitimacy.